SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (72-60) at Philadelphia (76-53)
Brad Penny (7-8, 5.61 ERA with Boston) is slated to make his Giants debut at Citizens Bank Park against the Phillies, who counter with lefty J.A. Happ (10-3, 2.63) in the middle contest of a three-game series between playoff contenders.
Philadelphia ace Cole Hamels held the Giants to a season-low two hits in a complete-game 1-0 victory on Tuesday. The Phillies are on hot streaks of 37-16 overall, 22-8 at home, 6-0 against the N.L. West, 5-0 on Wednesday and 8-2 versus teams with a winning record.
San Francisco arrived in Philly on a 5-1 run, but it has now dropped four in a row and five of its last six on the highway, and the Giants are now 11 games under .500 as a visitor this season (28-39). Bruce Bochy’s bunch has also lost 18 of its last 26 on the road to lefty starters, but it has won five straight on Wednesday.
The Giants are still on a 5-2 roll against Philadelphia, but six of those seven games were in San Francisco. The Giants are now just 3-11 in their last 14 visits to Citizens Bank Park.
Penny was released from the Red Sox a week ago, not long after allowing eight runs on 10 hits in four inning of a 20-11 loss to the Yankees at Fenway Park on Aug. 21. The veteran right-hander had just one win since mid-June, and he’s 1-5 with a 7.82 ERA since the All-Star break after going 6-3 with a 4.71 ERA in 17 starters before the break.
Penny, who began his career pitching in the N.L. East for the Marlins before spending four years with the Dodgers, is 8-4 with a 3.72 ERA in 20 career starts against the Phillies, including 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two games at Citizens Bank.
Happ delivered his sixth consecutive quality start at Pittsburgh on Thursday, allowing three runs in eight innings, but he got little offensive support and took the 3-2 loss, ending the Phillies’ string of four straight victories behind the young southpaw . Happ is 7-3 with a 2.52 ERA in 16 starts since the beginning of June; he’s 4-1 with a 3.77 ERA in 14 appearances (seven starts) at home; and he’s yet to face the Giants in his brief career.
The under is 18-3-1 in Happ’s last 22 starts overall, 4-0 in his last four at home and 5-0 in his last five on Wednesday. Conversely, four of Penny’s last five starts with the Red Sox hurdled the total.
As a team, Philadelphia is on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 7-1 against winning teams, 37-17-2 after a victory and 15-7 on Wednesday. Similarly, the Giants carry “under” trends of 19-8 on the road against southpaw starters and 7-1 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (77-54) at Tampa Bay (71-60)
Red Sox ace Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.80 ERA) looks to put a horrific month of August behind him when he leads the Red Sox against Matt Garza (7-9, 3.95) and the Rays at Tropicana Field.
Boston cruised to an 8-4 victory on Tuesday and has now won four in a row, seven of its last eight and 11 of their last 14 to open up a three-game lead over Texas in the wild-card race. Terry Francona’s squad is on additional positive runs of 8-0 against right-handed starter, 5-1 versus the A.L. East and 9-3 on Wednesday. However, the Red Sox have still lost 17 of their last 26 to teams with a winning record, going 2-12 in the last 14 on the road versus winning clubs.
The Rays, who now trail Boston by six games, are 10-6 in their last 16 games overall and they’ve won 11 of last 16 at home. Going back further, Tampa is on a 37-15 roll at Tropicana Field, and is on additional streaks of 6-3 in A.L. East action, 48-16 in the second game of a series and 69-29 when hosting opponents with a losing road mark.
The Rays are still 8-5 in the 13 clashes with Boston this season and they’ve taken 16 of the last 22 meetings at Tropicana Field, including last year’s American League Championship Series, which Tampa Bay won in seven games.
Over his last three starts, Beckett has surrendered 20 runs on 23 hits – including 10 home runs – over 18 1/3 innings, good for a 9.82 ERA, yet the Red Sox still managed to win two of those contests, including a 6-5, rain-delayed victory over Toronto at home on Friday. With Beckett pitching, the Red Sox are still on positive streaks of 20-7 overall, 11-3 in divisional play, 8-3 on the road and 7-2 on Wednesday. He’s 6-4 with a 4.10 ERA in 13 road starts in 2009.
On the other hand, the Sox have lost eight of Beckett’s last 11 outings on field turf, four of his last five versus winning teams and four of his last five at Tropicana Field. Including two playoff starts last October, Beckett is 7-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 15 games against the Rays (1-1 with a 5.60 ERA in three starts this year).
Garza got rocked for six runs in five innings in Friday’s 6-2 loss at Detroit, just the second time in his last nine outings that he’s given up more than three runs in a game. Garza is 4-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 14 home starts this season, and the Rays are 9-3 in the right-hander’s last 12 efforts at The Trop.
Additionally, with Garza on the hill, the Rays are on runs of 4-1 against A.L. East rivals, 7-1 against Boston (playoffs included) and 6-0 the last six times he’s faced the Sox in Tampa. For his career, Garza is 7-1 with a 2.66 ERA in 12 starts versus Boston, including a pair of dominating playoff victories in last year’s ALCS. He’s faced the Sox four times this season, going 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA.
Behind Beckett, the Red Sox are on “over” runs of 4-0 overall and 5-1 on Wednesday, but the under is 6-2 in his last eight outings against Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Garza carries nothing but “under” trends, including 38-17-3 in his last 58 starts overall, 6-1-1 at home, 7-0 against the A.L. East, 8-1-1 when facing winning opponents and 4-1 when he battles the BoSox. Finally, as a team, the Rays are on “under” stretches of 4-2 overall, 5-2-1 at home, 17-9 against A.L. East foes and 7-3 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Atlanta at Florida
The Marlins look to bounce back from yesterday's loss and build on their 5-1 record in Rick VandenHurk's last 6 starts following a team loss in the previous game. Florida is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+150)
Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.484; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.132
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+115); Under
Game 903-904: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Paulino) 14.229; Cubs (Lilly) 15.726
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-220); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-220); N/A
Game 905-906: Washington at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 13.805; San Diego (Correia) 15.001
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-130); Under
Game 907-908: San Francisco at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Penny) 15.358; Philadelphia (Happ) 16.561
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-200); Under
Game 909-910: Atlanta at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 14.667; Florida (VandenHurk) 14.875
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+150); Under
Game 911-912: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Bush) 15.259; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.839
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-260); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-260); Under
Game 913-914: NY Mets at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Redding) 14.234; Colorado (Jimenez) 15.087
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-270); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-270); Under
Game 915-916: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 16.084; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 17.290
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-170); Over
Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 14.491; Minnesota (Duensing) 15.747
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Over
Game 919-920: Kansas City at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Bannister) 14.876; Oakland (Cahill) 14.588
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+150); Under
Game 921-922: LA Angels at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.647; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.881
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+115); Over
Game 923-924: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Laffey) 14.978; Detroit (Porcello) 16.028
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Over
Game 925-926: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 16.334; Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.096
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Under
Game 927-928: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.500; Baltimore (Berken) 16.622
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+210); Under
Game 929-930: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Richmond) 15.256; Texas (Hunter) 14.706
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-190); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+180); Over
WNBA
Phoenix at Indiana
The Mercury look to bounce back from last night's loss in Detroit and build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games following a SU defeat. Phoenix is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by just 3. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3 1/2)
Game 651-652: Phoenix at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 112.188; Indiana 115.102
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 176 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3 1/2); Over
Vernon Croy
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LAA Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Over 7.5
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Felix Hernandez (13-5, 2.77 ERA) struggled in his only home start against the Angels this season allowing 11 hits and 6 earned runs over just 5.7 innings. Scott Kazmir (8-7, 5.92 ERA) has struggled overall this season and I do not see him pitching much better for the Angels than he did for the Rays. Kazmir was lit up in his only road start against the Mariners this season allowing 9 hits and 7 earned runs over just 4.3 innings. The O/U is 4-0 for the Angels in their last 4 games when the posted total is 7.0 to 8.5 and the O/U is 10-4 for the Mariners in Hernandez's last 14 home starts as a favorite. The O/U is also a perfect 6-0 in Hernandez's last 6 home starts against the Angels. Take this game to go over the posted total for Wednesday.
Marc Lawrence
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Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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The Braves battle the Marlins in Game Three of this four-game series when Javier Vazquez opposes Burke Badenhop at Land Shark stadium in Miami tonight. Vazquez enters tonight game with 8 wins in his last 10 team starts, including 5 wins in a row on the road. Meanwhile, Badenhop is 3-7 with a 6.89 ERA in his MLB career team starts, while having never hurled more than 6 innings in any game. With that we'll back the better pitcher here tonight. Look for Atlanta to improve to 7-2 on Wednesdays here tonight.
Lenny Del Genio
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Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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The Cards are big favorites Wednesday night and for good reason. Ace Chris Carpenter gets the baseball as he looks for revenge against a Brew Crew lineup he held scoreless (gave up just two hits) over eight innings in a 1-0 loss in Milwaukee back in May. Carpenter has been lights out at home all season long, going 7-1 with a 1.86 ERA and counterpart Dave Bush couldn't be heading in any more of an opposite direction with a 14.73 ERA his last three outings along with team records of 13-38 as a road underdog and 7-27 away vs. division opponents for his career. Meanwhile, the Redbirds are 31-7 this season as a money line favorite of -150 or higher. Take St. Louis.
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play: Detroit over Cleveland
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The Tigers enter September with a real chance of winning the Central Division, while possessing a solid 42-22 home mark to support their series with the pesky Indians. Going into Tuesday action, the Tigers had won 8 of 12 in the series this season. With the Tigers 6-1 in the home starts of hurler Rick Porcello, I will take a ticket on Detroit tonight.
DAVE COKIN
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BOSTON RED SOX / TAMPA BAY RAYS
TAKE: TAMPA BAY RAYS
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Things are looking mighty bleak for the Rays right now. The defending AL champs are on life support following last night's loss to Boston. This is, plain and simple, a game TB has to have to maintain even scant hopes of catching the Red Sox. Matt Garza has been their best big game pitcher, and with Josh Beckett a little off lately, I'll side with the Rays to keep hope alive with a win this evening.
JIM FEIST
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MILWAUKEE BREWERS / ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
TAKE: OVER
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Milwaukee has a stronger offense than the mighty Cardinals, ranked 10th in baseball in runs scored. The Milwaukee pitching is a problem, though, and notice the team is on a 13-6 run over the total. Dave Bush (3-5, 5.88 ERA) is no stopper, a struggling righty with below average stuff. His last three starts: 0-2 with a 14.73 ERA! Chris Carpenter is an ace, but the he is 2-3 with a 4.37 ERA against the Brewers. Look for more offense than oddsmakers expect; play the Brewers/Cardinals Over the total.
Jeff Benton
San Francisco at PHILADELPHIA
For Wednesday’s free play, we’ll back the Phillies on the run line (-1½ runs) against the Giants.
This is as much a play against Brad Penny, who makes his San Francisco debut tonight, as it is a play on Philadelphia lefty J.A. Happ and the red-hot Phillies. Start with Penny: The guy was a disaster in Boston this season, particularly over the final six weeks as he went 1-5 with a 7.82 ERA after the All-Star break.
I’m sure Penny thinks he’ll be much more comfortable pitching against in the National League, but he sucked last year with the Dodgers, and I don’t see him having very much success tonight .. not when he’s pitching in Philly’s bandbox of a ballpark … against the likes of Utley, Howard, Rollins, Ibanez, Werth, etc. Seriously, if the Phillies don’t score at least five runs off Penny in this game, I’ll be beyond stunned.
As for Happ, the kid’s been absolutely tremendous since joining the Phillies’ rotation in June. He’s given up three runs or fewer in 12 of his last 13 starts, including surrendering two or fewer 10 times. He’s also pitched at least six innings in all 13 starts, going seven or more on eight occasions, including in his last three. And tonight, Happ is facing a weak Giants lineup that really struggles against left-handed pitching (.247 average overall; .236 average on the road; .200 average last 10 games).
Finally, get a load of these numbers: The Giants are 28-39 on the road this year (0-4 last four); they’ve lost 11 of their last 14 games in Philadelphia; and the Phillies are crazy hot, going 37-16 in their last 51 games overall, including 22-8 in their last 30 at home! And even though their last two victories have been by just a single run, 21 of their previous 24 victories were by multiple runs. Lay the 1½ runs with the defending champs, who should win this one by at least four runs.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA -1.5
Dominic Fazzini
Boston at TAMPA BAY -115
The Braves came through Tuesday for my third straight complimentary winner, also giving me 20 victories in my last 32 selections! Time to go with an AL East showdown to make it four consective wins.
Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.80 ERA) is still considered Boston's ace, but he hasn't been pitching like one lately.
The hard-throwing right-hander is 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA over his last three outings, allowing 10 home runs in 18 1/3 innings. He gave up five runs on five hits and five walks in five innings Friday against Toronto but escaped with a no-decision in the Red Sox's 6-5 victory.
Rays starter Matt Garza (7-9, 3.95) can be surprisingly inconsistent at times, but not against Boston. The right-hander is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA in 10 career starts against the Red Sox, including 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in four outings against them this year, allowing just 15 hits in 28 2/3 innings. He also beat Boston twice in last year's ALCS.
Garza also usually pitches well at home, going 4-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 14 starts this year at Tropicana Field.
Beckett is a pedestrian 6-4 with a 3.63 ERA in 13 career starts against Tampa Bay, including 1-1 with a 5.61 ERA in three outings this year, giving up 11 runs and 18 hits in 17 2/3 innings. He also is 6-4 with a 4.10 ERA in 13 road starts this year.
Tampa Bay probably isn't going to make a return to the playoffs this year, but I do think Garza has what it takes to beat the Red Sox tonight. Go with the Rays in this one.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Bobby Maxwell
Boston +105 at TAMPA BAY
Made it three straight FREE winners on Tuesday when the Braves got the road win in Florida against the Marlins. Tonight I'll hand you a fourth straight comp winner when the Red Sox take care of the Rays in Tampa.
Boston's offense came out and made a statement on Tuesday night in Tampa with the 8-4 victory and you can count on right-hander Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.80 ERA) to make a statement with his arm in this one and put some more distance between the Red Sox and Rays in the race for the A.L. Wildcard.
Beckett has been beaten up lately and he wants to get back on the right track. He's allowed 20 runs in his last 18 1/3 innings but his offense has managed to rally and win two of the three contests. With this quality hurler on the hill, the Red Sox are on runs of 20-7 overall, 11-3 against divisional foes, 8-3 on the road and 7-2 on Wednesdays.
As a team, Boston seems headed for that wildcard spot, currently on positive runs of 8-0 against right-handed starters, 5-1 against the A.L East and 9-3 on Wednesdays.
These Red Sox are on a roll right now, having won seven of their last eight overall and they crushed the ball at Tropicana Field on Tuesday night and got great relief pitching from Jonathan Papelbon, who came in in the eighth inning with the bases loaded and no outs and got out of it without a run, then pitched a perfect ninth for the save.
Matt Garza (7-9, 3.95) is on the hill for the Rays today. He got slapped around for six runs in five innings of a 6-2 loss to the Tigers on Friday. He's had success against Boston, but that comes to an end tonight as he's struggled lately.
Play the Red Sox to continue to widen the gap in the wildcard standings. Beckett delivers a gem in this one.
4♦ BOSTON
Stephen Nover
N.Y. Yankees at BALTIMORE
The Yankees are the best team in baseball right now, a staggering 36 games above .500. New York is 22-6 in its last 28 games. The Yankees are averaging 7.4 runs in their last 13 games and have a pitching edge with CC Sabathia against rookie right-hander Jason Berken.
The edges are so strong that New York is worth laying 1 1/2 on the run line.
The Orioles have lost their last eight to the Yankees. They are 3-10 on the season versus New York with all of their defeats except one coming by more than one run. Overall, Baltimore is 13-29 in its last 42 games and has dropped six of its last nine. The Orioles are going with youth as they use the final month to test their youngsters seeing who is ready for prime time.
Sabathia hasn't lost since July 28. The Yankees have won eight of his last nine starts. Sabathia is 5-0 with a 2.64 ERA in his last six starts. He has a 44-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last five starts. He shut out Baltimore on four hits when he last faced the Orioles on May 8 at Camden Yards.
Adam Jones is perhaps the most feared batter the Yankees have to face. He is batting nearly .400 against the Yankees this season. But Jones turned an ankle last night and is doubtful to play today.
The Orioles are 3-13 in Berken's past 16 appearances. He has a 6.33 ERA. New York has won 29 of its last 38 games when facing a right-handed starter.
2♦ YANKEES -1.5
Jimmy the Moose
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Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers
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Although the Indians have played better of late they have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Cleveland is 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home % above .600. Laffey has pitched very well over his last 5 starts, all Indian wins, but over his last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record the Indians are 2-7. Cleveland is 2-8 in his last 10 road starts as a dog. The Tigers are 36-17 in their last 53 home games. In their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing record they are 7-2. Detroit has won 6 of Porcello's last 7 home starts. In his last 20 starts overall they are 14-6. Cleveland is 1-5 in their last 6 trips to Detroit. The Tigers are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Detroit Tigers -
EZWINNERS
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Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -114
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The Red Sox starting pitcher Josh Beckett is not right. In his last three starts Beckett is 0-1 with an ERA of 9.82 and he has an ERA of 5.60 against the Rays this season. Beckett has been very hittable and is leaving the ball up in the zone. Tampa Bay's starting pitcher Matt Garza has been very inconsistent this season, but he has pitched very well against Boston. Garza is 2-0 against Boston this season in four starts with an ERA of just 1.88. For his career Garza is 5-1 against Boston in ten starts with an ERA of 2.93. Garza is also a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. The Red Sox are only 6-16 in their last twenty two games at Tampa and the Ray are 9-3 in Garza's last twelve home starts. Play on Tampa Bay.
Tom Freese
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Under
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Los Angeles is 9-0-1 UNDER their last 10 games following a win and they are 8-0 UNDER their last 8 games vs. righty starters. The Dodgers are 16-5-2 UNDER their last 23 games. Starting pitcher Chad Billingsley has allowed 4 or less runs in 6 straight starts. Arizona starter Max Scherzer has a better than 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Arizona is 7-2 UNDER on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks are 7-3-1 UNDER as underdogs of +151 to +200. The Snakes are 5-1-2 UNDER their last 8 games at Dodger Stadium. PLAY ON 'UNDER'