MTi Sports
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Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
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The Royals are 0-10 when Brian Bannister starts after throwing more than 100 pitches on the road and, after Mondays loss, they are now 7-35 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started. Also, Kansas City is The Royals are 3-18 and it is the last game of a three game series when they split the first two. Oakland is 7-1 when Trevor Cahill starts at home vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date and 17-5 after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings. Consider laying the 160.
JR TIPS
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Angels at Mariners
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The Seattle Mariners offense looks to bounce back and help their fading playoff hopes when they continue a three-game series with the Los Angeles on Tuesday.The Westleading Angels continued their tear at the plate Monday, beating Seattle 10-0. It was their fourth win in six contests and gave them a six-game lead over Texas and an 11-game cushion on Seattle in the division.The Mariners will get two of their best hitters back Tuesday as Suzuki and Beltre return. The Mariners will need to pick up the offense, which has been held to four total hits in the last two games although the Angels have scored 33 runs in their last four contests. Vladimir Guerrero homered twice and Juan Rivera hit a three-run shot Monday night. Guerrero is hitting .341 in the last 10 games and has three multi-home run games this season. Los Angeles will go for its third straight sending Ervin Santana (7-7, 5.94 ERA) to the mound.Santana had his four-game winning streak snapped Thursday after he allowed two runs in six innings of a 2-0 loss to Oakland. The right-hander has a 2.67 ERA in his last four starts as he is 6-3 with a 4.36 ERA against Seattle.The Mariners will counter with rookie Doug Fister (1-1, 3.42), who is making his fifth start and sixth appearance this year. Fister is facing the Angels for the first time as he struggled Thursday against Kansas City, yielding five runs and three homers over six innings of an 8-4 loss. The Angeles offense is just simply to hot and Seattle's offense can't keep up with their run total facing Santana.
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TAKE LAA -135
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
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We would be much more inclined to take a look at the Rays in this series had they not dealt Scott Kazmir, a sure sign that the front office does not think the team has a chance in the AL East or the Wild Card. Tonight, they must face Josh Beckett, who has a 14-4 TSR in night games this season. Despite his recent struggles, Boston has still won 8 of Beckett's previous 11 starts. The Red Sox have won seven of their last eight and 11 of their last 14. Tampa is dying a slow death.
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Play on: Boston
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -119
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I'll back the Cards at home on the run line tonight as I don't see the Brew Crew getting much of anything against Carpenter. The right-hander is 9-0 with a 2.00 ERA in 11 outings since July 5 and 7-1 with a 1.86 ERA in nine home starts this season. On the other side of things, I expect the Cards to have their way with Bush. He is 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in six starts against the Red Birds in his career and the Brewers are just 1-6 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 24-3 in Carpenter's last 27 starts with 5 days of rest so I expect him to be on top of his game tonight and for the Cards to win this one by at least 2 runs.
Bob Harvey
Angels - Mariners
The Mariners managed to quiet the Angels hitters in a 2-1 win on Tuesday, but Wednesday will be a different story in the series finale at Safeco Field in Seattle.
Scott Kazmir makes his Angels debut as the Halos look to build on their 4.5 game lead in the AL West. The Mariners send their ace, Felix Hernandez to the hill as they look to take the rubber match in the three-game series.
Vladimir GuerreroThe Angels were shut down Tuesday night by rookie Doug Fister who combined with two relievers on a six-hitter in Seattle’s 2-1 victory. It was a dramatic drop in offense for the Angels who had scored 19 runs in their previous two games vs. the Mariners.
At first glance it would appear the Angels are in for tough go of it today against Hernandez. King Felix is 13-5 on the year with with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. However Hernandez is just 3-5 with a 4.77 ERA in 14 career starts against the Halo’s. In addition, eight of the last 10 games involving Hernandez and the Angels have topped the total. Combine that with a 14-6 record to the Over in the last 20 games between these AL West rivals and you’ve got the makings of a game that could play to the high side.
Kazmir started the season on the disabled list before being activated on April 8. He accrued a 4-4 record with an ERA of 7.69 before going on the disabled list again on May 23. He returned on June 27 and went on to have a record of 8-7 with an ERA of 5.92 and 91 strikeouts as of August 28, 2009.
Lifetime Kazmir is 3-1 against the Mariners with a 2.21 ERA. Those apperances came two years ago when he was considered to be one of the game’s bright young stars. However injuries have plagued him since his breakout season and he hasn’t been the same since. During his stellar 2006 campaign, Kazmir worked closely with Mike Butcher who is now the Angels pitching coach. The hope is that reunion could pay huge dividends for both sides.
Pick: Angels-Mariners Over 7½
LT Profits Sports
White Sox at Twins
Mark Buehrle looked like his old self in his last start vs. the Yankees, and don’t forget this is the same pitcher that hurled a Perfect Game. Play the Run Line vs. an unproven youngster.
The Chicago White Sox send their ace Mark Buehrle to the mound in this matinee vs. the Minnesota Twins and young Brian Duensing, and we feel this is enough of a pitching mismatch to play the White Sox on the Run Line.
Mark BuehrleNow granted, Duensing has pitched well in his first three starts, but before going seven innings in his last start vs. the Texas Rangers, he went just five innings in each of his first two starts. Furthermore, one of those outings came against these White Sox, making them the first Major League team to face him for a second time. It is not as if Duensing was a highly touted prospect, so we see Chicago making the necessary adjustments and getting to him here today.
Now Buehrle may have peaked with his Perfect Game, but then again, who would not? Still, he did finally look more like his old self last time, limiting a powerful New York Yankees lineup to two runs in six innings only to get an unlucky No Decision. And face it, Buehrle has much more of a proven record than the Minnesota youngster.
As good as Buehrle looked against the Yankees, we feel he could improve even more today, and with all the value now sucked out of the Money Line in this game, we will lay the Run Line at decent plus odds.
Pick: White Sox -1½
Randall the Handle
CINCINNATI -1½ +1.70 over Pittsburgh
The Reds have momentum for the first time in awhile and when you’re winning, coming to the park is fun. Cinci has won three in a row, all over the Pirates and they’ve also won eight of its last 10 and that includes a three game sweep in Milwaukee in which they scored 20 runs. Suddenly, the offense is clicking, as they hung an 11 on the Bucs yesterday and have scored 22 runs in the first three games of this series. Homer Bailey is coming off back-to-back great outings and perhaps this guy is finally finding his groove. Bailey threw an eight-inning shutout against the Dodgers in his latest and prior to that, in Pittsburgh, he threw a seven-inning, four-hit gem. Reports are his fastball is hitting 98 MPH with regularity and for the first time since he was a #1 draft pick his confidence is soaring. The Reds will see 10-game winner Zach Duke, one of the worst 10-game winners in major league history. Duke surrendered 11 hits and seven runs in three innings in his last start and he’s throwing for a team that has lost 44 of its last 57 road games. Over his last 17 innings, covering three starts, he has five k’s and an ERA of 6.23. The Reds are feeling it, the Pirates are a complete disaster and with a take-back of +1.70 laying the extra half run the Reds certainly have to be considered a decent play. Play Cincinnati -1½ +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
MINNESOTA +1.40 over Chicago
If the South Siders were going to win a game in this series it certainly looked like yesterday was going to be the day. John Danks vs Jeff Manship was the match-up and on paper it sure looked like the South Side had a significant edge. However, this team continued its downward spiral, pretty much playing themselves out of contention with another loss. Ever since they picked up Alex Rios this team has done a complete 180. They’ve lost 20 of its last 26 road games and overall they’ve lost nine of 10. They’ve struggled at this venue for years and they’ll go into this game with a huge psychological disadvantage. Folks, the South Side is reeling and the fact that they appear to have an edge on the mound today means jack. If the better pitcher won each time we’d all be rich but alas, that is not the case. The Twins smell a kill here and there’s likely not a thing the White Sox can do about it, as they’ve thrown in the proverbial towel. Play: Minnesota +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta -1½ +1.03 over FLORIDA
Speaking of teams with a psychological advantage, one needs not look much further than the Braves over the Fish. This was a huge series for both teams that could ultimately decide the wildcard winner. The Braves took the first two games of this series having beaten Josh Johnson and following that up with Tim Hudson pitching the Braves to victory in his first start in 13 months. The Braves will now go for the sweep in good shape with a serious advantage on the mound. Rick Vanderhurk has lasted a combined 14 innings over his last three starts and over that stretch his ERA was 7.98. In 31 frames this season he has allowed an alarming nine bombs. He’s being thrown into a very tough situation with a lot of pressure on him and it’s unlikely he’ll respond well. Javier Vazquez throws nothing but strikes and is very accustomed to pressure situations. He’s walked three batters and struck out 21 over his last 20 innings. On the year he’s walked 35 batters and has 192 K’s in 176 frames. Vazquez has won four straight on the road and overall he’s 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA in 12 road starts. Play: Atlanta -1½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Sports Gambling Hotline
Cleveland at DETROIT
Tuesday free play winner on Atlanta, now 28-11-3 free play run the last 42 days!
Last night we had the offensive explosion between the Indians and the Tigers, tonight we will see the pitchers rule the roost, and this middle game of a three game set stay UNDER the posted total.
Aaron Laffey has allowed 3 runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts, and the southpaw's ERA stands at 3.59 for the season.
Rick Porcello will counter, and his last 3 home starts show just 4 runs allowed in 16-plus innings of work. 6 of Porcello's 11 home starts this year have held LOW, as have 13 of his 22 overall starts.
Meanwhile, 8 of Laffey's 12 assignments this year have also played LOW.
7 of the last 11 series meetings have also held UNDER, and finally, the Tigers are on a 9-2 UNDER clip their last 11 Wednesday games.
Pitchers rule tonight.
Play on the UNDER between Cleveland and Detroit.
1♦ UNDER
Karl Garrett
White Sox at MINNESOTA +145
G-Man on a 29-24-1 comp play run the last month-plus.
For Wednesday, "Getaway Day" can't come quick enough for this fading White Sox club.
Chicago was drilled at Boston in 3 of 4, swept at New York in all 3, and are now on the verge of getting swept in this series at Minnesota.
G-Man expects it to happen, as Minnesota has certainly caught fire by winning 11 of their last 14 after last night's victory.
Mark Buehrle is winless since twirling his perfect game masterpiece, going 0-4 over his last 7 starts. He has also dropped his last pair of decisions to the Twins, allowing 13 runs in 9 July innings of work.
Brian Duensing has given Ron Gardenhire some stability in the rotation, going 2-0 in his 3 starting assignments. Duensing is making his second start against the Pale Hose, his first lasted 5 innings, and saw 2 runs score in a no decision.
Chicago is a beaten club. The trade of Jim Thome proves to me they have thrown in the towel.
Take the Twins.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -130
The Pirates have really mailed it in, especially on the road. They have dropped all six games on their current road trip and last night's game was essentially over in the 1st inning when Cincinnati scored four runs. It runs their road total to a 1-15 mark over their last 16. If that isn't bad enough, try 4-27 over their last 31 road games, a complete meltdown and no-show. They have their ace on the mound today in Zach Duke, but it has meant little to the results of their games. The Pirates are just 2-9 in his last 11 starts. They are also now just 1-10 in his last 11 road starts. Homer Bailey has pitched much better for the Reds as he has an ERA of under three in his last three starts and has allowed just a single run in his last two. I will go with the Reds in this one.
ROCKETMAN
Boston @ Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay
Boston comes in with a losing road record this year at 32-33 on the season. Tampa Bay has a very nice 42-22 record at home this year. Tampa Bay bullpen has been solid with a 3.67 ERA overall and a 3.48 ERA at home this year. Josh Beckett is 0-1 with a 9.82 ERA his last 3 starts allowing 20 earned runs and 23 hits in a little over 18 innings of work. Matt Garza has a 3.25 ERA at home this year. Garza is 7-1 with a 2.66 ERA overall vs Boston since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay tonight!
JEFF ALEXANDER
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -164
I'll lay a little more juice than I usually like to to get the Dodgers at home tonight against the struggling Max Scherzer. The Diamondbacks are 5-12 in Scherzer's last 17 road starts and 2-7 in his last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Plus, the Diamondbacks are just 3-12 in their last 15 road games period and 2-10 in their last 12 road games with the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 12-2 in Billingsley's last 14 starts vs. the National League West and 17-4 in his last 21 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Dodgers.
Bob Donahue
D-Backs at Dodgers
This is a low total because of the park and the two pitchers on the mound have had decent seasons. However, the two have been struggling mightily of late. LA righty Chad Billingsley is 1-2 his last three starts with a 4.76 ERA, as the Dodger pitching has been breaking down of late, putting a strain on the pen. Arizona righty Max Scherzer has a terrific young arm, but there are growing pains, with a 6.75 ERA and a 1-2 record his last three starts. Look for more offense than oddsmakers expect, play the D-Backs/Dodgers Over the total.
Matt Fargo
Play Blue Jays-Rangers OVER 9.5
After seeing 29 runs scored on Monday, both games of yesterday’s doubleheader stayed ‘Under’ the number by producing just 7 runs in each contest. That puts us in good shape for the run production to take off tonight. The Blue Jays struggled in Boston to score runs but they broke loose on Monday with 18 runs – only to see 4 runs scored in 18 innings yesterday. Toronto has posted a dreadful 5.82 ERA over the last 10 games and Texas is not far behind with an ERA of 5.07 over that same span. The Rangers have averaged 6.7 RPG so far in this series and they are hitting .278 on the season at home, good for fifth best in baseball. Toronto is hitting .273 on the road which is also fifth best in the Majors. The Blue Jays send Scott Richmond to the mound and he has allowed 4 runs or more in 4 of his last 8 outings. He has a 1.41 WHIP over that 8-game stretch and allowing a lot of baserunners is a problem against a team like Texas. The Rangers counter with Tommy Hunter who has a 2.95 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. That leaves room for the bullpen to take some of his innings and that bullpen has posted a 5.28 ERA over its last 10 games. Hunter’s only appearance against the Blue Jays was in his Major League debut last August 1st when he allowed 6 runs in 5 innings. The ‘Over’ is 7-1 in Richmond’s last 8 starts as a road underdog. Take the ‘Over’ here tonight!
Nelly
Play Diamondbacks-Dodgers UNDER 8
The ‘Under’ is 8-1-1 in the last 10 Dodgers games and the Los Angeles offense has topped 4 runs just twice in that span – even with 3 extra-inning games. The Dodgers are batting just .245 in that span and the ‘Under’ is 6-2-1 the last 9 times these teams have played. Scoring has been down in Los Angeles games as the ‘Under’ is 16-5-2 in the last 23 games. Max Scherzer has delivered a very solid season and he owns a 4.02 ERA in his road starts. Scherzer has a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and his counterpart tonight, Chad Billingsley has been one of the NL’s best pitchers this season. Billingsley has allowed just 10 runs in his last 5 starts and at home his ERA is 3.84. With two solid pitchers and one of the lowest scoring parks in baseball, another ‘Under’ effort appears in order.