Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 22,2010

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago CubsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Francisco GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We used San Francisco in this spot last night and we will go back with the Giants again here. The victory Tuesday kept them in first place in the National League West by a half-game over San Diego and a two and half games over Colorado so every game is big at this point. San Francisco is four games over .500 on the road with five games remaining and the series following this is at San Diego which makes this matchup with the Cubs just as important as last night. Chicago was red hot as it had won eight of its last nine games which was its best stretch of the season. As expected, heading home was not a good thing. All of those games during that winning stretch came on the road where the Cubs have a better record than at home. Also, the momentum was stalled with the day off and the bats fell apart on Tuesday. Going back to the end of July, Chicago is just 7-17 in its last 24 games at Wrigley Field showing the home field edge is no more. The Giants go with Jonathan Sanchez tonight and he has been outstanding. He has allowed one run or less in four straight starts, posting a 0.67 ERA covering 27 innings. He has actually pitched better on the road than at home this season as he has a 2.94 ERA in 15 starts with the Giants going 10-5 in those games. He has given up just one run in his last three road games and to no surprise, San Francisco is 3-0 in those games. The Giants are 13-5 in his 18 starts at night. The Cubs go with Randy Well and he is coming off a quality outing in his last start as he allowed only one run in eight innings against the Cardinals. The problem has been he has been unable to put any sort of run together. In his three previous quality performances, he has put up a non-quality effort in his next start and it makes it even worse considering run support has been limited. Chicago is averaging only 3.5 rpg in his 30 starts on the season including 3.47 rpg in his 17 home starts. The Giants are 10-1 in Sanchez’ last 11 starts against teams with a losing record while the Cubs are 1-11 in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record. Also, Chicago is 1-12 in Wells’ 13 starts this season against National League teams with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse. 3* San Francisco Giants

DAVID CHANFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics
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Just two months ago, the Chicago White Sox led the AL Central Division.
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Now the White Sox are eliminated from the playoffs.
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Is there a more dead team in baseball than the White Sox, losers of 12 of their last 14 and eight straight? Jimmy Hoffa is more alive than the White Sox, who have been outscored by 30 runs during their losing streak.
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Things aren't going to be any better this afternoon for the White Sox. The Athletics have the best day record in baseball and are starting Brett Anderson.
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Anderson is 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA in four starts since coming back from a knee injury. The White Sox are 1-7 the past eight times they've faced a southpaw.
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The White Sox are without injured second baseman Gordon Beckham and closer Bobby Jenks.
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White Sox starter Edwin Jackson has pitched well since coming from Arizona. But the White Sox are strictly fade material.

JIM FEIST

NEW YORK METS/FLORIDA MARLINS
PLAY: FLORIDA MARLINS

The Mets are winding down a lost season and they are a terrible road team. Starter Jonathon Niese is 1-3 with a 5.66 ERA against Florida this season. The Florida offense is very good, sixth in the NL in runs scored and Alex Sanabia (4-3, 3.88 ERA) has a good arm with few walks allowed. Great value on the home team in this one. Play the Marlins.

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston at Washington
Play: HoustonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston starter Wandy Rodriguez has allowed 3 or less runs in 9 of his last 10 starts. The Astros are 20-9 their last 29 games overall. Houston is 8-1 off a loss and they are 7-3 vs. NL East teams. The Astros are 12-4 when Rodriguez pitches game 3 of a series. Houston is 7-0 after allowing 5 runs or more in their last game. Washington starter Jason Marquis has allowed 8 runs in his last 6.1 innings of work. Marquis 2-9 in his team starts this year. The Nationals are 23-54 their last 77 games as an underdog. Washington is 2-9 in the last 11 starts made by Marquis and they are 9-21 vs. team with a losing record.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -148
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The Phillies are rolling, having won 9 in a row. And with all 9 of those wins coming against divisional foes, they improved to 23-5 last 28 vs. the National League East. I expect them to continue their winning ways tonight with Oswalt on the hill. The Phillies are a perfect 9-0 in his last 9 starts, during which he has held opponents to 3 or fewer runs in 8 of those outings. The Braves are just 12-25 in their last 37 games as an underdog and 1-5 in Hanson's last 6 starts as an underdog. Take the Phillies tonight as they complete the series sweep.

Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Reds have taken the first two games of this three-game series with the Brewers, as they move closer to their first division title since 1995 ("magic number" is down to four!). Cincinnati leads the NL in BA (.271) and runs scored (4.91 per game) and is batting .306 and averaging 6.3 RPG while winning nine of 10 against Milwaukee this season. Has this game "already been played?" I think not. Johnny Cueto is 12-5 with a 3.35 ERA in 29 starts this season and on the year, has received a league-high 6.24 RPG in support. However, the team has surprisingly (considering his run support numbers) gone just 4-8 in his no decisions. Cincy is a modest 16-13 in his 29 outings, winning just $119 vs the moneyline. Cueto his winless in his last four starts (team is 1-3) and he's lost his last three. He's hasn't pitched poorly in those three games (2.84 ERA) but the Reds have failed to get him his usual support, scoring just seven runs. Opposing Cueto is Randy Wolf (12-11, 4.32 ERA), who is coming off his first shut out of 2010 (struck out six and threw a three-hitter in Friday’s 3-0 victory at San Francisco). The veteran left-hander has been impressive since giving up career highs of 12 runs and 13 hits in a 15-3 loss at Pittsburgh on July 21, going 5-2 with a 2.66 ERA in 10 starts (team is 6-4). He is 9-2 with a 3.17 ERA in 18 career starts against the Reds (teams are 12-6) and I believe Wolf and the Brewers are worth a shot in this game.

LT ProfitsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rangers at AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dan Haren has pitched very well for the Los Angeles Angels since coming over from Arizona while C.J. Wilson is having a fine year for the Texas Rangers, so look for a low scoring game in Anaheim tonight.
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The bookmakers have installed a total of 7½ on this contest, with the betting odds favoring the ‘under’ at -125.
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Haren deserves a better fate than his 3-4 record in an Angels uniform, given his 3.12 ERA and 1.19 WHIP since coming over, but that is what happens when your team does not hit. Thus, it should come as no surprise that the ‘under’ is 7-3 in Haren’s 10 starts for the Halos. He is also looking to extend his streak of five consecutive Quality Starts, and he actually allowed two runs or less in four of those outings.
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Meanwhile, Wilson is 14-7 for Texas with a 3.21 ERA in 30 starts, with the ‘under’ going 19-11, 63.3 percent in those starts. He had been in a bit of a funk until his last start, when he regained his form by allowing two runs on only six hits in eight innings at Seattle. Yes, the Mariners have the worst team batting average in the Major Leagues, but the Angels have not exactly scalded the ball lately themselves, so we see no reason why Wilson can’t have another strong outing.
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After all, the Halos are batting a woeful .221 over their last 10 games including .216 vs. left-handed pitching, and the last time they faced Wilson, he tossed eight scoreless innings while allowing only four hits in Arlington in July.
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The ‘under’ is also 7-2-2 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings between these clubs and we are looking for mire of the same tonight.

Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Houston Astros +110
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I'll back the Astros in this bounce back spot with Rodriguez on the hill, considering the Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss and 6-1 in Rodriguez's last 7 starts vs. the Nationals. Plus, the Nationals are 0-5 in Marquis' last 5 home starts. Take Houston.

Info PlaysFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3* on Detroit Tigers -215
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Reasons the Tigers win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (KANSAS CITY) - average hitting team (AVG = .265 to .279) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games. This is a 60-9 ML System hitting 87% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +41.5 units.
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2.) Max Scherzer is 11-10 witha 3.54 ERA and 1.251 WHIP this season, while Kyle Davies is 8-10 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.548 WHIP this year. Davies is 3-7 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in 11 lifetime starts vs. Detroit. Bet the Tigers at home.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco Giants
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The San Francisco Giants have been a very gritty team down the stretch, taking the lead in the NL West division while sitting at 84-66 for the season. San Francisco boasts a major league-best 1.57 ERA this month, and Sanchez (11-8, 3.21 ERA) has been instrumental to that success. In his last four starts, Sanchez is 2-0 with a 0.67 ERA and 31 strikeouts over 27 innings. Opponents are batting .146 against him over that stretch, and Sanchez's .207 opponents' batting average this year is tops in the majors.
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In Thursday's 10-2 win over the Dodgers, Sanchez allowed two runs and four hits in seven innings. The left-hander, who is 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA in six starts since losing to San Diego on Aug. 13, also struck out a career-high 12 and walked none. This is one starter you can feel safe laying down your hard-earned money with, especially at the price we are getting him at today. I expect Randy Wells to continue to struggle for the Cubs tonight as he's just 7-13 with a 4.46 ERA in 2010. Take the Giants Wednesday.

Doug UpstoneFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Colorado Rockies
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Ubaldo Jimenez (19-6, 2.84 ERA) of Colorado tries to become the third member of the 20-win club in 2010. Jimenez has had a few rocky outings of late (4.42 ERA L3 starts), but has only permitted eight home runs in over 202 innings of work this season. His club really needs him to come up with stellar effort since they trail San Francisco and San Diego in the loss column by two games in the wild NL West.
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For hump day, consider Playing On favorites with a money line of -150 or more, with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less long balls a start, playing on Wednesday. Since “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dean Man’s Chest” was the top grossing movie for that year (2006), this system is outstanding 154-53.

RocketmanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati @ Milwaukee
Play: Cincinnati
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Cincinnati is now 86-66 overall this year while Milwaukee comes in with a 69-81 overall record on the season. Cincinnati has a nice 8 game lead in the NL Central heading into tonight's action. Cincinnati is 57-27 overall this year against teams with a losing record. Cincinnati is 28-11 this year against teams with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Cincinnati has won 3 of their last 4 games overall. Milwaukee has lost 3 in a row. Johnny Cueto is 12-5 with a 3.35 ERA overall this year, 6-3 with a 3.35 ERA on the road and has a 2.84 ERA his last 3 starts. Cincinnati is 9-1 overall vs Milwaukee this year. Cueto is 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Cincinnati tonight!

CHUCK O'BRIEN

Now onto Wednesday’s complimentary selection. I’ve hit 17 of 24 free plays in September, including nine of the last 12 overall and seven in a row in baseball! Tonight, I’ll side with the Astros on the road at Washington.

Talk about a mismatch on the mound. The Astros’ Wandy Rodriguez is working on a string of 11 consecutive quality starts, and going back to June 24 he’s delivered 15 quality starts in his last 16 trips to the mound (the only exception was an 11-5 win at wind-swept Wrigley Field, when Rodriguez gave up five runs in six innings after being staked to an 8-0 lead). Rodriguez’s numbers in these 16 starts: 8-2, 1.93 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 107 1/3 innings (including four games in which he recorded 10 Ks).

At the other end of the spectrum is Jason Marquis. His season has been cut short by injury, but when he has pitched, he has not fared well at all, going 2-9 with a 7.7 ERA in 11 starts, including 0-5 with an 8.86 ERA at home. The last time he stepped on a mound – on Friday against the Phillies – Marquis got a quick out on the first batter, then allowed the next eight Phillies to reach base before getting yanked. His final line: six runs, six hits, 1/3 of an inning. Marquis is also 0-3 with an 8.62 ERA in his last three starts against Houston.

Despite losing 8-4 to the Nationals last night (the Astros blew a 3-1 eighth-inning lead), Houston is 20-9 in its last 29 games (11-5 on the road). And only once in this span have the Astros lost consecutive games (they’re 8-1 in their last nine after a loss). Meanwhile, the Nats are still just 3-10 in their last 13 games (1-6 at home).

4♦ HOUSTON

BOBBY MAXWELL

For my comp selection tonight, you can’t go against Giants’ lefty Jonathan Sanchez (11-8, 3.21 ERA) right now as this guy is looking like the ace of the staff lately, going 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his last three outings. San Francisco shut down the Cubs on two hits Tuesday night and don’t look for much more from them tonight.

Sanchez has a 2.94 ERA on the road this season and over his last four starts, he’s allowed two earned runs in 27 innings. He allowed one earned run in seven innings of a 10-2 win over the Dodgers on Thursday, striking out 12 and walking none. In his only start against the Cubs in his career, he allowed four runs in four innings, but walked six in a 4-2 loss at Wrigley last season.

Randy Wells (7-13, 4.46 ERA) is just 3-8 at Wrigley this season and was not good in his last home outings, giving up four runs on nine hits in six innings to the Astros on September 8, losing 4-0. He has been roughed up in his only two career outings against the Giants, giving up a combined 12 runs in 10.1 innings. He faced San Francisco in August when he gave up seven runs in five innings of an 8-7 loss.

The Giants are on several positive runs, including 8-2 on the road, 20-9 against losing teams, 28-13 against Central division teams, 10-1 on the road against teams with losing home records, 8-1 when Sanchez starts on the road, 10-1 when he faces a losing team and 4-1 when he goes against N.L. Central teams.

The Cubs have dropped 17 of 24 home games and they are just 3-14 against N.L. West teams. They are also just 6-15 when Wells takes the mound and 1-5 with him on the hill at home.

Play San Francisco as Sanchez has been outstanding lately.

2♦ SAN FRANCISCO