SPORTS ADVISORS
Philadelphia (88-62) at Florida (81-71)
The Phillies look to move another step closer to capturing their third consecutive N.L. East title while pushing the Marlins closer to elimination when these division rivals wrap up a three-game, two-day series at Land Shark Stadium. Philadelphia will send ace Cole Hamels (2-2, 4.24) to the hill opposite Rick VandenHurk (10-9, 4.07).
These teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday, with the Phillies cruising 9-3 in the opener then losing 3-0 in the finale. Philadelphia leads the N.L. East by 7 ½ games over the Braves and 8½ over the Marlins, and its magic number to clinch the division is down to five. The defending world champs have won 11 of their last 15 overall, including eight of the last 10, all against division rivals. They’re 5-3 on the road during this stretch, and Philadelphia is on additional upticks of 24-10 in divisional play, 12-5 versus winning teams, 6-1 on Wednesday and 7-2 against right-handed starters.
Florida has lost seven of its last 12 at home, five of seven against lefty starters and six of eight at home against southpaws, but is otherwise on positive runs of 9-4 against N.L. East rivals and 4-0 on Wednesday.
By winning the nightcap of last night’s doubleheader, the Marlins ended Philadelphia’s nine-game winning streak at Land Shark Stadium. Still, the road team has dominated this rivalry in 2009, winning 12 of the first 14 meetings.
Hamels is coming off back-to-back 4-2 home wins over the Mets (one run allowed in 6 2/3 innings) and Nationals (one run allowed in eight innings). Philly is 4-1 in Hamels’ last five trips to the mound, with the lefty posting a 1.43 ERA during this stretch. However, the Phillies have lost four of Hamels’ last five starts on the road, where the San Diego native is just 3-6 this year with a 4.98 ERA in 14 outings.
Hamels has struggled in his young career against the Marlins, going 2-5 with a 4.19 ERA in 10 starts. Also, Philly is 1-6 in his last seven starts against the Fish and 1-4 in his five career outings in South Beach.
VandenHurk has a 2.40 ERA in his last three trips to the hill (four earned runs allowed in 15 innings), though he doesn’t have anything to show for it, getting three no-decisions. However, the Marlins won all three games, beating Atlanta 8-7 at home while scoring road wins at the Mets (4-2) and Reds (4-3). In four home starts, the 6-foot-5 right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.98 ERA. VandenHurk is also 0-2 with a bloated 12.79 ERA in two career starts against the Phillies, losing 11-1 and 9-1 in Philadelphia in 2007.
The Phillies have stayed under the total in Hamels’ last seven starts overall, his last four on the road and his last four against the N.L. East, and the under is 13-3-1 in his last 17 when starting the third game of a series. Conversely, the over is 5-2 in VandenHurk’s last seven starts overall and 4-0 in his last four at home.
As a team Philadelphia is on “under” runs of 7-3 overall (all against the N.L. East), 11-4 against winning teams, 25-9 in the third game of a series and 17-8 on Wednesday, however the over is 5-2 in the Phillies’ last seven as a visitor. Meanwhile, the under is 6-1-1 in Florida’ s last eight games overall, but otherwise the over for the Marlins is on streaks of 20-8 at home, 6-2 on Wednesday and 8-4 versus lefty starters.
Finally, the over is 55-26-3 in the last 84 Phillies-Marlins meetings in Miami.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
N.Y. Yankees (96-56) at L.A. Angels (90-61)
The Yankees conclude a six-game West Coast road trip and cap their season series against the Angels with an afternoon affair in Anaheim, as New York’s A.J. Burnett (11-9, 4.22 ERA) is set to oppose Los Angeles lefty Scott Kazmir (9-8, 5.08).
After losing Monday’s opener to the Angels 5-2, the Yankees squandered a 5-0 lead last night, but got a run in the top of the ninth and held on for a 6-5 victory, becoming the first team in baseball to clinch a playoff berth. New York is just 2-3 on the road trip and 5-6 in its last 11 overall. However, Joe Girardi’s squad remains on impressive streaks of 58-24 overall, 17-8 on the road, 38-17 versus southpaw starters, 7-2 on the road against lefties, 41-13 on Wednesday and 36-16 against teams with a winning record.
Los Angeles is still 4-2 in its last six games, and Mike Scioscia’s club is on additional surges of 7-2 at home, 14-7 against the A.L. East and 41-14 in the third game of a series. The Angels also hold a slim 5-4 lead in the season series with New York, and the home team is 7-2 in the nine meetings this year and 14-3 in the last 17 clashes. The Yanks have won just twice in their last seven games at Angel Stadium.
Burnett pitched well at Seattle on Friday, allowing a run on seven hits in seven innings, but closer Mariano Rivera blew a 2-1, ninth-inning lead and the Yankees fell 3-2, dropping to 2-5 in Burnett’s last seven starts. They’re also 1-4 in his last five road efforts, but 4-0 in his last four Wednesday outings. Despite the strong performance at Seattle, Burnett is just 6-6 with a 4.83 ERA on the highway this season.
Burnett faced the Angels on April 30 in the Bronx and yielded four runs on eight hits in seven innings, but the Yankees prevailed, 7-4. He’s 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA in five lifetime starts versus the Halos.
Kazmir has been brilliant since getting dealt to the Angels last month, allowing a total of five runs (four earned) in four starts, including pitching six shutout innings in Friday’s 2-0 victory in Texas, his first win in an L.A. uniform. Going back to his time with Tampa Bay, Kazmir has registered seven consecutive quality starts, allowing 11 total earned runs in 45 innings (2.20 ERA).
The Angels have posted a pair of 3-2 victories in Kazmir’s two home starts, with the lefty allowing a combined three runs on 10 hits in 13 innings (2.08 ERA). Also, he’s shined against the Yankees in his career, going 6-4 with a 2.53 ERA in 14 appearances (13 starts), including 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in two starts this year.
With Burnett on the bump, New York is on “under” runs of 16-7-2 overall, 3-1-1 against the A.L. East and 4-0-1 on Wednesday. Also, all four of Kazmir’s starts with the Angels have stayed low, and the under is 6-0 in his last six outings going back to his time with the Rays.
The Yankees are on “under” rolls of 4-2 overall, 5-2 against the A.L. West, 3-0-1 against lefty starters and 8-3 on Wednesday, but the over is still 10-5 in their last 15 road games. Meanwhile, L.A. carries nothing but “under” trends, including 20-6-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home and 16-6-1 versus right-handed starters.
Conversely, the over is 22-9 in the last 31 Yankees-Angels battles overall, with 14 of the last 18 in Anaheim topping the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
DUNKEL
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
The Brewers look to build on their 8-3 record in their last 11 games as a favorite. Milwaukee is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130)
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.953; Pittsburgh (Hart) 13.430
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130); Over
Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.756; Washington (Detwiler) 13.022
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Under
Game 955-956: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.934; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 13.709
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Under
Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.853; Florida (VandenHurk) 14.896
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-165); Over
Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.344; Milwaukee (Narveson) 16.068
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); Under
Game 961-962: St. Louis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Smoltz) 14.352; Houston (Norris) 14.537
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Under
Game 963-964: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stauffer) 16.005; Colorado (Marquis) 15.026
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-215); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+195); Over
Game 965-966: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.820; Arizona (Mulvey) 14.487
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Under
Game 967-968: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.600; LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.910
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Over
Game 969-970: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.715; Toronto (Richmond) 13.813
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); Over
Game 971-972: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 13.986; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.673
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120); Under
Game 973-974: Seattle at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Morrow) 15.765; Tampa Bay (Davis) 16.790
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under
Game 975-976: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Duensing) 15.107; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.793
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-110); Under
Game 977-978: Boston at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 16.043; Kansas City (Hochevar) 16.968
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-215); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+195); Over
Game 979-980: Texas at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 14.448; Oakland (Mortensen) 16.636
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120); Under
WNBA
Indiana at Detroit
The Shock look to build on their 5-1-1 ATS record in their last 7 home games. Detroit is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Detroit favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1 1/2)
Game 601-602: Indiana at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 110.517; Detroit 116.212
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 5 1/2; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 147
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Phoenix at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 116.885; Los Angeles 117.183
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 183 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 3; 177
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3); Over
MTi Sports
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Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
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This game is not exactly prime time material, but we do believe that we have line value with the Blue Jays. In yesterdays game the Orioles used seven pitchers and the Blue Jays used five. Toronto prevailed 6-5 in extra innings to send the Orioles to their sixth straight loss. The Blue Jays are THE most profitable team in the league when hosting a team on a losing streak. Toronto is 31-8 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last four games, making 19.9 net units. The Cubs are second-best at plus 15 units.
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In addition, the Blue Jays are an excellent 7-0 THIS season at home after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers. The Orioles, on the other hand, are 5-20 since mid April off a loss in which they used at least five pitchers.
Baltimore also has a tough time vs a team on a winning streak, as they are 0-6 since May on the road when their line is within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has won at least their last two games.
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Finally, the Blue Jays are 5-0 THIS season after an extra inning win. Take Toronto.
John Martin
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1 Unit on Kansas City Royals +180
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The Royals have played the Boston Red Sox surprisingly tough this season. The Royals are 3-3 against the Red Sox in 2009, and they've taken the first two games of this home set. At this kind of value as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog Wednesday, I'll pull the trigger on the Royals as my free play. Boston is just 2-9 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. The Red Sox are also 2-9 against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season this season. Boston is going through a phase this season where they play to the level of their competition. Boston has not been up for this series, while the Royals have given 100% effort in trying to defeat a playoff team and finish the season on a good note. But the Royals have been playing well now for about 3 weeks, going 12-7 in the month of September. Kansas City is 6-0 in their last 6 home games and 8-1 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Cash in with the Royals as the underdog.
Info Plays
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3* on Texas Rangers -122
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Reasons why the Rangers win:
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1.) The one constant on the Rangers' starting staff of late has been Tommy Hunter. He is 8-4 with a 3.25 ERA on the season, 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA on the road and 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA over his last 3 starts. Clayton Mortensen has given up 15 earned runs in 22 innings this season for a 6.14 ERA for Oakland. Hunter has won both starts against Oakland in 2009, giving up 5 earned runs in 12.3 innings for a solid 3.65 ERA.
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2.) Oakland is 14-37 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Rangers are 10-2 in their last 12 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rangers are 7-1 in Hunter's last 8 starts as a favorite. Bet Texas on the road.
Black Widow
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1* on Minnesota Twins +103
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Minnesota continues to win, while the White Sox continue to pack it in. The Twins are 8-1 in their last 9 games overall as they continue to gain ground on the Tigers in the AL Central. The White Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 games and should not be favored in this match-up. Brian Duensing is having an excellent season, going 4-0 with a 1.70 ERA as a starter in 7 outings. He is 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA in his last 3 starts for Minnesota. Duensing has faced the White Sox twice this year, giving up 2 earned runs in 12 innings for a 1.50 ERA. Buehrle has faced the Twins 3 times since July 12th, giving up 15 earned runs in 15.7 innings. With those two lines, it's clear to see why the Twins are the play Wednesday. Not to mention that they are clearly the more motivated team right now. Take the Twins on the Money Line.
EZWINNERS
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Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5
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The Red Sox starting pitcher Josh Beckett seems to be finding his groove again. After struggling for a large portion of the second half of the season Beckett has posted an ERA of 3.15 in his last three starts. In his last start, Beckett pitched eight strong innings allowing three runs while striking out seven and not walking any batters in a no decision against the Angels. In his career Becket has dominated the Royals posting a 4-0 record with an ERA of just 1.90 in six career starts. The Royals starting pitcher Luke Hochevar pitched a gem in his last starts against the offensively challenged White Sox, but that was his first win since July 25th. Hochevar had allowed 24 runs in his prior five starts before his last outing against Chicago. Overall the Royals are just 1-9 in Hochevar's last ten starts. Play Boston on the run line.
HENTAI SPORTS
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Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Prediction : Atlanta Braves
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The Braves have had a good late season run, winning 6 of 7. That included a three game sweep over the banged up and lifeless Mets last week. Atlanta ace Tim Hudson takes the hill, and he’s been throwing well, with a 3.70 ERA. He is also 9-5 all time against far better Mets’ offenses than this one. NY goes with struggled righty Mike Pelfrey has been struggling, with a 5.57 ERA his last three starts.
DAVE COKIN
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BALTIMORE ORIOLES / TORONTO BLUE JAYS
TAKE: BALTIMORE ORIOLES
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The Orioles aren't exactly trustworthy, especially on the road. Still, they look like a worthwhile play tonight. Jeremy Guthrie has been pretty solid the last month or so, while Blue Jays righty Scott Richmond has been getting absolutely crushed. The Jays have captured the first two in this series, but I like the O's to salvage the finale.
JIM FEIST
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ATLANTA BRAVES / NEW YORK METS
TAKE: ATLANTA BRAVES
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The Braves have had a good late season run, winning 6 of 7. That included a three game sweep over the banged up and lifeless Mets last week. Atlanta ace Tim Hudson takes the hill, and he's been throwing well, with a 3.70 ERA. He is also 9-5 all time against far better Mets' offenses than this one. NY goes with struggled righty Mike Pelfrey has been struggling, with a 5.57 ERA his last three starts. Play the Braves.
Sports Gambling Hotline
LA Dodgers at WASHINGTON
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The Dodgers came to town, and they certainly brought their hitting shoes with them!
Last night's OVER made it 4 straight in the OVER column, and 8 of their last 10 also OVER the posted price for the men from LA.
Washington has been on a bit of an UNDER run, but that seems to change when they take on the Dodgers, as ALL 3 in this year's season series between the teams have landed HIGH.
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In DC, 5 of the last 7 dating back to 2007 between the clubs have gone OVER, and with Billingsley and Detwiler on the mound, we feel tonight's meeting will also land OVER the total.
Chad Billingsley has allowed 10 runs over his last 16 innings of work, while Ross Detwiler is still searching for his first win of the season, and sports an ERA of 6.00 to go with his 0-6 ledger.
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Hitters continue to dictate on Wednesday, play on the OVER.
3♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Philadelphia at FLORIDA
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Tuesday push from the G-Man on the Cubs-Brewers OVER the total. Now 7-4-1 the last 12 days with my comp plays.
After playing a double-dip yesterday, expect some tired bodies on the diamond tonight, and expect the Phillies-Marlins to hold UNDER the total.
Both starters have been dealing their last few trips to the hill, as Cole Hamels has won his last pair of starts in dominant fashion, working 15 innings of 2 run ball.
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His counterpart Rick Vandenhurk has allowed just 4 runs over his last 15 innings of work.
G-Man feels we are going to see some quick 1-2-3 innings worked by both pitchers in this getaway game for Philly.
Philadelphia has held UNDER in 8 of their last 12 games, while Florida is on an 8-3-1 UNDER run of their own their last dozen games.
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Take the low on Wednesday.
2♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Detroit -125 at CLEVELAND
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Delivered my second straight FREE winner on Tuesday when the Tigers went into Cleveland and took care of the Indians. For my third straight comp winner I'm staying right here in this series and backing Detroit again.
The Indians are absolutely horrible and can't wait until the season ends. They have packed it in for the long offseason already, losing their ninth straight game on Tuesday at home to the Tigers, who didn't play all that well in the 3-1 victory.
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Tonight Detroit, who is already 12-4 against the Tribe this season, goes with righty Rick Porcello (13-9, 4.22) against the Indians' lefty David Huff (10-8, 5.98).
The Tigers have won six of Porcello's last 10 contests and all three times he's seen the Indians this season. He's been magnificent against Cleveland, allowing a combined four runs in 20 innings during the three wins, including two starts in Cleveland where he's allowed two runs in 13 innings.
Huff has never faced Detroit and Friday when he pitched in Oakland he took the loss, allowing two runs in six innings of a 2-1 defeat.
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The Tigers are 13-5 when Porcello starts as a favorite while the Indians are 7-20 overall, 1-6 at home, 3-14 as an underdog and 2-12 on Wednesdays.
All signs point to the Tigers in this one. Play Detroit.
3♦ DETROIT
Stephen Nover
Minnesota -105 at CHICAGO
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The Twins are trying to chase down the Tigers in the American League Central. They're making Detroit sweat having won eight of their last nine games.
The White Sox are going the opposite way giving up on the season having lost six of their last seven. They've scored one or fewer runs in more than half of those losses. Chicago has lost 16 of its last 22 AL Central Division games.
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White Sox starter Mark Buehrle is 1-6 in 11 starts since throwing his perfect game against Tampa Bay on July 23. During this stretch, he's given up 89 hits and 38 earned runs in 69 2/3 innings. He is 2-2 with a 5.38 ERA against the Twins this season.
The White Sox also lost closer Bobby Jenks for the season on Tuesday night after he sustained a calf muscle injury.
Southpaw Brian Duensing has been brilliant since joining Minnesota's starting rotation going 4-0 with a 1.70 ERA. He hasn't surrendered a run during his past two starts. He faced the White Sox on Sept. 2, pitching seven innings and not allowing a run.
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I'll ride a hot starter and a hot Twins club on a late playoff push against a fading, apathetic White Sox team with a cold starter.
5♦ MINNESOTA TWINS
Dominic Fazzini
Boston at KANSAS CITY
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Boston ace Josh Beckett (15-6, 3.80 ERA) seems to have bounced back from his month-long slump.
The hard-throwing right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in his last two outings after posting a 7.76 ERA in the previous five.
Beckett has owned the Royals in his career, going 4-0 with a 1.90 ERA in six starts. He pitched a three-hit shutout against them on July 12.
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Kansas City starter Luke Hochevar (7-10, 5.79) also tossed a shutout in his last outing, a three-hitter against the White Sox. Before that, however, he was 0-7 with an 8.21 ERA in nine starts.
Hochevar is 1-2 with a 7.13 ERA in three career starts vs. the Red Sox. Even winning his last outing against them, on July 9, he gave up five runs in six innings.
With Beckett back on his game, the Royals' three-game winning streak is about to come to an end. Take the Red Sox to win on the run line today.
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4♦ BOSTON -1.5