Tom Freese
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St Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros
Prediction: Under
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St. Louis is 21-8-1 UNDER their last 30 games vs. Houston. St. Louis is 10-3 UNDER after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. The Cardinals are 5-0 UNDER in the last 5 starts made by John Smoltz and they are 19-6-3 UNDER their last 28 Wednesday games. Houston is 22-8-1 UNDER their last 31 games as home underdogs. Houston is 46-22-3 UNDER at home vs. righty starters. The Astros are 10-3 UNDER after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game and they are 6-2 UNDER in Game 3 of a series. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
LT Profits
NY Yankees at LA Angels
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The New York Yankees beat the Los Angeles Angels 6-5 in Anaheim last night after first blowing a 5-0 lead, clinching a playoff berth in the process, but we look for the Halos to resume their mastery over the Bronx Bombers here today.
The Angels had been 9-1 in the previous 10 head-to-head meetings with the Yanks here in Anaheim prior to last night, and it looked as though that streak would continue when they rallied to tie the game at 5-5 before the New Yorkers won the game in the ninth inning.
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Today, the Halos send Scott Kazmir to the hill, who is quite familiar with the Yankees lineup from all of his years pitching in the American League East for the Tampa Bay Rays. Kazmir is a perfect four for four in Quality Starts as a member of the Angels, and going back to before the trade with Tampa Bay, he has now posted seven consecutive Quality Starts. Furthermore, he has also allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last eight start vs. the Yankees.
While Kazmir has found some great consistency, Yankee starter A.J, Burnett has become maddeningly inconsistent lately. Then again, this should come as no surprise, as Burnett has always had great stuff his whole career but never put up the numbers he should because he is so erratic. He has alternated good and bad starts is last four outings, putting him in line for a bad one today, and he has not pitched well his last two starts vs. LA, allowing 10 earned in 14 innings.
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We feel that the Angels have the pitching edge here, and the fact that the Yanks clinched a post-season spot last night after missing the playoffs last year may result in a bit of a letdown by them. Factor in this cheap price and the Angels are the play.
Pick: Angels -110
Scott Rickenbach
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Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Under 8.5
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The Reds have won six of their last eight games and, yesterday’s slugfest notwithstanding, it’s mostly been due to their pitching. The Reds pitching staff has a 2.50 ERA in their last eight games. The Pirates have now lost six straight games to the Reds and they’ve averaged just 3.3 runs per game in the six losses! Homer Bailey gets the start for Cincinnati Thursday and he’s 3-1 with a 1.83 ERA in his last six starts. Also, on August 23rd at PNC Park, Bailey allowed just one run on four hits in seven solid innings of work. In his most recent outing, on Friday, Bailey allowed just three hits in seven shutout innings against the Marlins! The Pirates have reached double digits in hits in each of the last two games but they haven’t recorded at least ten hits in three straight games since early June. In other words, look for Pittsburgh to struggle at the plate against a resurgent Bailey tonight.
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Kevin Hart gets the start for the Pirates tonight and he’s 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts against the Reds this season. He’s coming off of a very solid outing in his most recent start as he allowed just two runs in six innings Wednesday while striking out five. That effort came against the playoff-bound Dodgers. Now he’ll face a Reds team that, despite it’s recent surge, is still hitting just .237 on the road this season. That ranks 29th out of all 30 MLB teams! As for the Pirates, they are hitting just .240 since the All-Star break and that ranks 29th out of all 30 MLB teams! Hart has not fared well since coming to the Pirates but his recent 0-5 run is not totally indicative of how he’s been pitching. Other than an extremely rough start against the Cardinals, in Hart’s other four recent starts he’s given up a total of 25 hits in 22 innings. He’s capable of holding the Reds bats “in check” tonight. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Pittsburgh on Wednesday night.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates +115
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I'll back the Pirates in the home dog role tonight. The Reds have won 6 straight in this matchup so you can expect the Bucs to be very hungry here. They'll get an excellent chance to break their losing skid to the Reds as they face Homer Bailey, who has been one of the worst starters in the majors over the last couple seasons. The Reds are just 7-20 in Bailey's last 27 starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Plus, this is a classic revenge situation where I like to play against a starter who beat its opponent in a recent matchup. I expect the Bucs to make the necessary adjustments at the plate tonight. Hart has been at his best at home and he will also be looking for some revenge after losing to Bailey and the Reds the last time he faced them. The good news is the Reds are only 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter and 2-5 in their last 7 games as a road favorite. I'll back the Bucs for 1 Unit showing solid value here.
Scott Spreitzer
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San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
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Tonight's starting pitchers have posted similar lines in their last two starts. Jonathan Sanchez has lasted just 4 1/3 innings in each of his last two outings, getting smacked for eight earned runs and 15 base runners. Kevin Mulvey gets the nod tonight for the "Snakes." He's lasted just 4.0 innings in each of his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs and 19 base runners. Mulvey owns an 11.25 ERA, 2.38 WHIP, and .405 BAA in two starts at Chase this season. Sanchez owns bad career numbers against Arizona, especially at Chase where he sports a 6.05 ERA and 2.02 WHIP.
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Play on: Over
Jimmy the Moose
NY Yankees at LA Angels
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Scott Kazmir has been just what the beleaguered Angels rotation needed since coming over to the Halos, and he gets the nod this afternoon against the Yankees.
A preview of a possible American League Championship Series is taking place in Anaheim. Both teams will want to be on their games and not show any weakness in case they do meet up in the postseason.
Kendry Morales at 96-56 the New York Yankees hold the best record in baseball. After a rough start the Yankees turned it around and haven't looked back. Although they haven't clinched a division title, they have clinched a playoff berth with their 6-5 win in Game 1 last night and their 5-game lead on the Red Sox is pretty comfortable.
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New York is 58-24 in their last 82 games overall. Recently the Yankees have struggled on the road and when A.J. Burnett has taken the mound. Prior to last night's game the Yankees had lost four of their last five road games. New York has lost five of Burnett's last seven starts overall. In his last five road start the Yankees are 1-4.
The Angels are 90-61 on the year and hold a 7.5-game lead over the Texas Rangers in the AL West. LA has won four of their last six games and are 7-2 in their last nine home games. In their last 21 games vs. a team from the AL East the Angels are 14-7.
A couple of weeks ago the Angels added Scott Kazmir to the rotation and after being beaten in his first game as an Angel, he's looked very good over his last three starts, all LA victories. Over his last three starts Kazmir has an ERA of 1.42. Kazmir has given up three earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts.
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The Yankees have lost five of the last seven meetings between the clubs. In their last 27 games in Anaheim, New York is 7-20. The Angels have had their number and with Kazmir facing a struggling AJ look for another Angels win.
Pick: Angels -109
Bob Harvey
Dodgers at Nationals
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With the LA bats heating up and Chad Billingsley's confidence shot, the Over should cash easily tonight in Game 2 of the three-game set between the Dodgers and Nationals.
The Dodgers, with a little help from their friends, could clinch a playoff spot tonight. Los Angeles' magic number is six to capture the NL West, but a victory tonight over the lowly Nationals coupled with losses by the Giants and Braves would assure Joe Torre’s club of no worse than the Wild Card.
Manny RamirezAs they march towards their third playoff appearance the Dodgers most immediate concern is to try and get their one time ace, Chad Billngsley back on track.
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Billingsley has gone from All-Star pitcher to Dodgers reliever in two months. His confidence has betrayed him and now his problems are as much mental as they are physical. Here’s a guy who one minute is as dominate a pitcher as there is in the majors and a batter or two later has lost it completely.
His last outing was as a reliever and was a microcosm of his work this season. He entered the game in ninth inning and quickly got two outs and then proceeded to give up four runs before he was pulled from the game.
Torre says it’s a mechanical problem, that Billingsley is rushing his delivery. But several big league scouts say Billingsley’s struggles are up top. Whatever the case the Dodgers need him to turn it around and quick with just over two weeks remaining until the playoffs.
Maybe Billingsley could use a big night from the Dodgers offense which has scored at least six runs in six of their last 10 games. Over that stretch the Dodgers are 8-2 on the ML and 8-2 on the Over. The first three meetings between the best and worst teams in the NL have all easily topped the total. The Dodgers won Tuesday night’s opener 14-2 handing Washington its 99th loss of the season and third straight. The Nats have also dropped six of seven.
Russ Detwiller, the team’s first round pick in the 2007 draft, gets the start opposite Billingsley. Detwiller is 0-6 with an ERA of 5.80 and has spent the season splitting time between Triple-A Syracuse and D.C.
The key to our Over play is Billingsley. If he pitches as he did earlier this season we could be in trouble; however, I’m more apt to think his struggles aren’t behind him. In his last appearance as a reliever he gave up two runs and four hits in 1.2 innings. He has dropped his last four decisions and has an earned run average of 5.63 over his last 12 starts.
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Confidence can be a fleeting thing. In the case of Billingsley he lost it quickly and the Dodgers can only hope he can get it back in time for the playoffs.
Pick: Dodgers-Nationals Over 9
BIG AL
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets.
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Strong since coming off the DL, Tim Hudson takes the mound at Citi Field tonight as the Atlanta Braves look for their sixth-straight victory over the New York Mets in a little over a week.
Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the Atlanta Braves on the road in the Big Apple over the New York Mets.
Righthanded veteran Tim Hudson's 1-1 record since returning from Tommy John surgery is a bit misleading. Were it not for two blown saves in his first three starts, Hudson would have gotten off to a 3-0 start. In his last start on Friday night, Hudson retired the first 10 Phillies batters he faced but was then damaged by the power of Ryan Howard, whose two homers accounted for the three runs the Braves right-hander allowed in seven innings.
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There is no Ryan Howard in the Mets lineup tonight, so look for Hudson to get back on track against a team that has been a disappointment almost from the start of the season.
The Mets will hand the ball to big righty Mike Pelfrey, and Pelfrey was pedestrian his last time out against the Nationals on Friday, allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits in seven innings. The lefties in the Braves' lineup have excelled in their careers against Pelfrey, as Adam LaRoche is 4-for-4, Brian McCann is 11-for-23 with a home run and Chipper Jones is 6-for-15 with two long balls.
It's a shame that they're all but out of the NL East race because Atlanta is playing perhaps its best ball of the season right now. The Braves swept the Cardinals in three games on the road, then came home and swept this New York team in the next three, and followed that up with two of three from the division-leading Phillies to make it eight of their last nine heading into Monday (and they won last night's game as well). Take the Braves.
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Pick: Braves -136
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
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The Twins actually won a game on the road vs. a lefty yesterday, beating John Danks and the White Sox, 8-6, thanks to four home runs. However, their pursuit of first place Detroit will hit a "bump in the road" as tonight they face Mark Buehrle, a pitcher that owns a 12-0 team start record this season when the money line is -100 to -150. Minnesota is still just 5-20 vs. lefties on the road this season, including two losses to Buehrle early in the year.
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Play on: Chicago White Sox
Larry Ness
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ANA (-120) vs NYY
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The Yanks blew a five-run lead last night but won 6-5 on A-Rod's sac fly in the 9th. The win assured the Yankees of a playoff spot but New York is still intent on clinching the AL East (they lead the Red Sox by six games) and the best overall record (they lead the Angels by 5 1/2). The Yanks would love to avoid the Angels in the first round (would get Central winner instead), as last night's win was just their SIXTH in their last 24 in Anaheim. A win this afternoon would give New York its first series win in Anaheim since May 18-20, 2004. The Yankees will send A.J. Burnett to the mound and the high-priced free agent is just 11-9 with a 4.22 ERA on the season. The Yanks have gone 11-4 in his home starts but just 7-8 in his road starts. Burnett pitched very well in his last outing (although Mariano blew the save) but since the beginning of August, is just 1-5 with a 5.60 ERA in 10 outings (team is 4-6). Opposing Burnett is one of my favorite pitchers, Scott Kazmir. I repeat these number often when playing on Kazmir and will do so again, because they are VERY revealing. The Rays went 19-8 in his regular season starts last year (after a late start) and the pervious three years (2005-07), while the Rays were struggling to a 194-292 (.399) record, Kazmir was proving to be a real "difference-maker." The numbers don't lie. Kazmir was 33-26 (.559) in that three-year span, with the Rays going 46-44 (.511) in all of his starts. Doing the math, the Rays played .559 ball when Kazmir got a decision from 2005-07 but just .377 baseball (161-266) when he didn't. In games Kazmir started, the Rays played .511 baseball and with another starting pitcher, just .374 (148-248). The Angels acquired Kazmir from the Rays on August 28 and while he finally got his first win as an Angel last Friday (2-0 at Texas), he's pitched well in all four of his starts (1.42 ERA and the team is 3-1 in those games). Going back to his July 28 win over the Yanks at Tropicana Field, Kazmir's made NINE quality starts in his last 10 outings. He's given the Yankee's fits these last three years, going 5-1 with a 1.46 ERA in eight starts since April 24, 2007. Take Kazmir and the Angels.
Freddy Wills
New York Yankees vs. LAA Angels
Take Angels -121
I'm going with the Angels this afternoon not only has Kazmir owned the Yankees with a 1.47 ERA in his last 8 starts but he has pitched great for the Angels since coming over and has 9 of 10 quality starts in his last 10 overall. Yankees have their hands full with Burnett here who has not pitched well and especially during the day where he has a 5.79 ERA compared to his night 3.23 ERA at night. He gave up 4 ER in his last start vs. LAA and has a 4.83 ERA on the road. This is a pitching mis match as it goes right now and the Angels have the guy on the hill here today. Angels also play much better during the day and are scoring nearly a half run more during their day games than at night. Yankees are 7-20 in their last 27 in LA and LAA is 41-14 in game 3's in their last 55. Take the Angels.
Yankee Capper
Los Angeles Angels -125
St. Louis Cardinals -125
Tampa Bay Rays -170
San Francisco Giants -125
Wunderdog
Baltimore at Toronto
Pick: Toronto -110
Toronto has beaten Baltimore seven of eight times already here at home this season. The Orioles have packed things in. They've lost 91 games already this season, they are 24-49 on the road, 20-44 in division games and they've lost six in a row. Toronto isn't a whole lot better, but they are better. At home they have a winning record and they should have no trouble outscoring the Orioles tonight. Baltimore is so bad that they own a 21-38 record vs. losing teams including 8-21 vs. teams at .460 or worse! Toronto is 17-8 this season at home at -100 to -125 and I like them to get the win here.
Phoenix at Los Angeles
Pick: Phoenix +3
Do you remember that 1991 song by C&C Music Factory, "Things That Make You Go Hmmmm"? Well this game reminds me of that song. Phoenix won five more games than LA this season. Phoenix beat LA in three out of four regular season meetings. Yet, the Mercury are the underdog here. Hmmm. Phoenix is averaging 99 points in the playoffs after setting a WNBA record for points scored in the regular season (92.8 per game). Yet, they are the dog here. Hmmm. Well maybe Phoenix can't win on the road? Actually they are 11-7 away from home, not much worse than the Sparks' 12-6 home mark. Hmmm. Maybe the Mercury only beat up on lesser opponents, struggling to beat good teams. Actually, Phoenix is 12-5 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 7-0 in their last seven games. But Phoenix is coming off a poor defensive showing, allowing 92 points to San Antonio. That can't be good, right? As a matter of fact, Phoenix has done this 18 times this season and they are 14-4 ATS in games following a poor defensive effort. Finally, the Sparks are 0-8 ATS the past three seasons coming off a double-digit road win. I like Phoenix plus the points here.
Rocketman
Detroit @ Cleveland
Play: Detroit
Detroit is now 80-70 on the season while Cleveland comes in with a 61-89 overall record on the year. Detroit remains 2 1/2 games ahead of Minnesota for the AL Central Title. Cleveland is now 3-17 in the month of September this year including losing 9 in a row. Rick Porcello is 13-9 overall this season. Justin Masterson is 4-8 with a 4.49 ERA in all games and 3-7 with a 4.70 ERA in all starts this year. Masterson is 0-2 his last 3 starts. Detroit has won 12 of 16 overall vs Cleveland this year. Porcello is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA overall vs Cleveland since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Detroit tonight!