Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 24

DAVE COKIN

KANSAS CITY ROYALS AT CLEVELAND INDIANS
PLAY: KANSAS CITY ROYALS +103

I don’t think there’s any such thing as a before the fact easy winner. I avoid that terminology in promoting games as I think it’s inane. Easy winners after the fact? Yeah, sure. And I also believe there are what amounts to easy decisions, although it should be noted they definitely don’t always work out that way.

Tonight’s Royals/Indians hookup falls into that easy decision category for me. It’s over for the Indians. They really needed to get that Monday evening win following the resumption of the suspended game. But it didn’t happen and what I saw last night was a beaten Cleveland team that knows it’s finished for this season.

On the flip side, the Royals clinch a playoff berth with a win tonight, and they’re still very much in the hunt to win the AL Central and avoid that dreaded play-in game. The Royals were really energized on Tuesday night, and I would be stunned if we don’t see more of the same tonight. Make no mistake, I’m not the only one who noticed this as Indians analyst Rick Manning was talking about how KC had a “spring in its step” last night, and that was while the game was still scoreless.

The pitching matchup tonight is Jason Vargas vs. Trevor Bauer, but I’m not sure that matters much. This one is all about the intangibles, which heavily favor the visitors tonight. I’m a little surprised to see a plus sign next to KC as this is written, but I’m sure not complaining. I’m on the Royals to collect another win tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Seattle vs. Toronto
Play: Over 8.5

This game fits a totals system that has played over 28 of 40 times since 2004 and averages over 10 runs. We want to go over the total with any home team, like Toronto that is off a home dog win by 5 or more runs and scored 10 or more runs, vs an opponent off a road favored loss at -140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs. Seattle has played over the total in 11 of 13 on the road off a road loss where they scored 4 or less runs and have played over in 5 straight. The Jays have Buehrle going and he has gone over in 6 straight here at home and has a 5.21 era over his last 3 starts. In the series here 7 of the last 11 have played over. look for this one to follow suit.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 6

San Francisco has a fine offense, 13th in runs scored and slugging in a tight pennant race. The over is 8-1 in the Giants last 9 games as a road underdog. Aging Tim Hudson is breaking down, allowing 5, 6, 3 and 6 runs his last four starts (20 runs in 16 innings). The iver is 10-2-1 in the Giants last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Hudson (9-12) took the loss Friday against the Padres as he gave up five runs (four earned) on seven hits in 4.1 innings pitched. It's likely that Hudson's hip injury is still affecting his production as his ERA has jumped from 2.90 to 3.52 as of Aug. 27. He has allowed 18 earned runs over his last four starts and is hurting the Giants more than helping. He faces an LA offense that is 7th in runs scored and slugging, tops in on base percentage. The over is 20-6-1 in the Dodgers last 27 overall. Yasiel Puig, batting .425 in his last 10 contests, is 14 for 35 (.400) in his last nine against the Giants. The over is 18-7-1 in Dodgers last 26 games as a favorite.

Jesse Schule

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -122

The Tigers have Kansas City breathing down their neck, with just one game separating them from their AL Central rivals in the standings. Detroit will play it's final five games at home, beginning with the rubber match of this three game set versus Chicago. Both teams will send their ace to the mound, but I think home team should have a big edge here.

Justin Verlander will toe the slab for the Tigers, and he's won five of his last six starts. Verlander (14-12, 4.68 ERA) surrendered just one run on seven hits over 7 1/3 innings in a 10-1 win at Kansas City his last time out. He also defeated the White Sox during this recent hot streak, limiting Chicago to a single run over seven innings in a 7-1 win at Cellular Field. He's 2-1 with a 4.39 ERA in four starts versus the White Sox this season. Three of those four starts came in Chicago, and he was dominant in the only home meeting, allowing a pair of runs while fanning seven in seven innings of work.

The White Sox hand the ball to Chris Sale, who is coming off a rare loss. Sale (12-4, 2.20 ERA) allowed five runs on nine hits over just five innings in a 6-2 loss to the Royals. He's given up 10 runs on 18 hits in three losses in his last three starts on the road. He's had trouble in Detroit, going 1-2 with a 3.98 ERA in his last six trips to Comerica Park.

Victor Martinez has owned Sale, hitting .536 with three home runs lifetime.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Will Rogers

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Kansas City Royals +102

The Kansas City Royals are poised to make the playoff as they're holding down one of the Wild Card spots at the moment. They're only one game behind the Tigers in the AL Central as well, and they can put the final nail in the coffin for the Indians by completing the sweep in Cleveland tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Indians will hand the ball to Trevor Bauer (5-8, 4.06 ERA) who's win-less over the last 30 days, and with Cleveland coming up short in all of his last four starts. He conceded three runs on four hits with two homers over six innings in a no decision at Minnesota his most recent outing, and the 23 year old is usually performing better in day games rather than under the lights where he's 4-4 with a 4.68 ERA. The Royals will counter with Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.59 ERA) who's coming off three consecutive losses. Two of those were at home though, and Vargas has generally been better on the road this season going 5-4 with a 2.42 ERA. He's got decent numbers against the Indians line-up, and has owned David Murphy who's only 2-for-24 lifetime versus the southpaw.

2. Road Warriors - The Royals are a respectable 44-32 away from home, making them the fourth best road team in baseball. They've won 18 of their last 25 games outside of Kansas City.

3. X-factor - Billy Butler and Salvador Perez have been swinging hot bats lately , with both of them going 3-for-7 so far in this series.

LT Profits

Colorado vs San Diego
Pick: Colorado +117

The Colorado Rockies come off of a rare road win vs. the punchless San Diego Padres and we are now looking for two straight road wins at another underdog price. While Colorado starter Yohan Flande is 0-5 with a 4.91 ERA, even he was able to hold the Padres to two runs on four hits in six innings in his only start against them August 12th. And the Padres have not gotten any better offensively, especially here at spacious Petco Park where they are batting .226 overall while averaging just 3.29 runs for the season. Tonight’s Padre starter Joe Wieland did not seem ready for his Major League return after a two-year absence following two surgeries to his throwing elbow, allowing four earned runs on seven hits plus two walks in only 2.1 innings in his return start. The Rockies are 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings.

SPORTS WAGERS

L.A. Angels +174 over OAKLAND

Jon Lester doesn’t need any introductions. He’s been solid since coming over to the A’s from Boston and could once again throw a good game. We’re not concerned. If Lester allows two runs, the A’s could easily lose and if he allows three or more, they likely will lose.

We’re not going to try and make a case for Hector Santiago over Jon Lester because that would be like trying to convince you that Tom Arnold is funnier than Chris Rock. Truth is, Santiago is a big risk because he’s just not that good. He has yet to post an xERA better than 4.11 in a given season. His ERA has been nearly a full run lower than xERA in each of those seasons thanks largely to fortunate strand percentages. Santiago comes in with a 3.55 ERA but he does not possess the skills of a 3.55 ERA pitcher. That said, we’re not concerned because the A’s are making every donkey look like an All-Star. In an emergency start last night for the Angels, Wade Leblanc, a 29-year-old career stiff and mostly career minor leaguer, went 5.1 innings against the A’s and shut them out. Other starters that have thrived against the A’s recently include Nick Tepesch, Chris Bassitt, Brett Oberholtzer,Nicholas Martinez, Jerome Williams and Cory Rasmus to name a few. The A’s are batting .197 over the past six weeks and remain a huge risk and instant fade when priced in this range.

CHICAGO +115 over St. Louis

John Lackey had his turn in the rotation skipped two starts ago because he was complaining of arm fatigue. Lackey has a 4.50 ERA since being traded to St. Louis on July 31. His 7.6 K’s/9 with Boston in 2014 has slightly dropped to 6.8 with St. Louis in nine starts but five of those nine starts have come in St. Louis. On the road, it’s a different story, where Lackey has surrendered six jacks in four road starts. He's given up at least one jack in all of his road starts with the Cardinals and comes in with a road ERA of 8.10. Outside of a road start in Pittsburgh, Lackey has been torched in his other three road starts and in no way can he be trusted as the chalk here.

By contrast, Jake Arietta can be trusted. Arrieta has had a breakout campaign and he's been especially dominant at Wrigley Field, where he has a 1.60 ERA and has held opponents to a batting average of .173. He'll face the Cardinals for the fourth time this season. He's yielded only a 1.76 ERA in 15 innings to them this year and last season, he made one start against St. Louis and allowed 0 ER in 7 innings. Over his last four starts covering 25 innings, Arietta has struck out 30 batters with a groundball rate of 50%. The Cardinals have been slightly below average on the road, with a .663 OPS that ranks 10th in the NL. The Cubbies took the opener of this series last night in a 4-3 thriller and have been one of the toughest outs in the second half for these contenders to play against. They have a nice edge on the hill today and they also have the motivation to prevent the Cardinals from clinching in their barn. Great value on Arietta in this one and we’re on it.

Seattle +104 over TORONTO

How about a little baseball history folks? The last pitcher to throw 14 straight seasons of 200+ innings was Cy Young, who did it for 19 consecutive seasons from 1891 until 1909. Incredibly, Cy Young’s LOWEST number of innings pitched over that span was 287 innings in 1906 and his highest mark was 453 innings in 1892 when he started 49 games for the Cleveland Spiders. In those days, you pitched 9 innings every game and if the game went 10 innings, you pitched 10 innings. We bring this up because Mark Buehrle will go for his 13th consecutive season of 200+ innings in this, his final start of the season.

On June 2, Mark Buehrle woke up with a 10-1 record to go along with an ERA of 2.10. There were early discussions of him being a Cy Young contender (that’s ironic) but anyone with any knowledge at all knew it could not last. Buehrle was winning with nothing but pure luck. Since June 1, Buehrle is 2-9 with an ERA of 4.87. His swinging strike rate in his last start was 1%. No starter in the game has EVER had a lower swing and strike rate in one single outing that we know of. Buehrle is batting practice out there and if the balls happen to be hit right at people, so be it. Buehrle is constantly pitching with two runners on and gets into more jams than just about any pitcher in the game. With an xERA of 5.23 since the beginning of June and gasping for air after 13 consecutive seasons of 200+ innings, Buehrle’s risk is higher than it’s ever been. It’ll be interesting to see if John Gibbons leaves him in there to reach that milestone if he’s struggling.

After allowing 42 runs in their past four games, all losses, the Mariners desperately need a good start from someone. They may get it here from Taijuan Walker. Walker has made just one start and three relief appearances over the past month. During that stretch he as a BB/K split of 4/14 in 15 innings. He also has an outstanding swing and miss rate of 16% and a rock solid groundball rate of 50% over that same span. This top-10 prospect earned a late-season call-up last year after splitting 2013 between Double-A and Triple-A. He brings upper-90s heat and a power curve from his big frame. Walker is still awfully young at 21-years-old and the usual perils apply (inconsistency, monitored workloads), but this is a potential gem that's close to being ready.

Larry Ness

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers were in first from April 4-August 31 and had a season-high 6 1/2-game lead July 1, but their 9-22 mark since August 20 has led to a dramatic change in the standings. Milwaukee's 3-1 loss to Cincinnati on Tuesday pushed it to the brink of elimination after Pittsburgh beat Atlanta to clinch at least a wild-card spot. San Francisco fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers, leaving the Brewers FIVE games back of the Giants for the other wild card with just five to play. Milwaukee has lost five of six, scoring two runs or less in each contest.

For all intents and purposes, the Brewers’ wild card chances are shot. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds are limping to the finish line. Losing NINE of 10 out of the All Star break put the Reds in deep trouble right out of the box and losing 12 of 14 from August 8-22, ‘buried’ them. I backed Cincy last night behind Cueto (he earned his 19th win) but there is little reason to play the Reds these days, UNLESS Cueto is getting the start. Daniel Corcino makes his fifth major-league appearance and third start after allowing two runs, three hits and four walks while striking out six in 5.2 innings of a 3-2 loss to the Cubs in Chicago last Wednesday. He pitched a scoreless inning of relief in his major-league debut August 26. Corcino received a no-decision in a 3-2 loss at Milwaukee on September 12 when he permitted two runs and two hits in six innings while singling against Lohse in his first major-league at-bat.

Kyle Lohse is Milwaukee’s starter tonight and overall, he’s had a solid season. He enters his last start with a 12-9 record (3.71 ERA) in 30 starts (Milwaukee is 18-12). He is 6-5 with a 2.90 ERA in 19 starts against Cincinnati (teams are 10-9). This is basically a meaning less game but as noted above, the Brewers are 18-12 (plus-$581) in Lohse’s starts and my bet says he finishes on a high note against Corcino and the Reds.

Jimmy Boyd

Seattle Mariners +104

It hasn't been the stretch run that Seattle was hoping for, as they have dropped 4 straight and are just 3-8 over their last 11, but they are still alive. The Mariners are 3.5-games back of both Oakland and Kansas City. While the odds are clearly not in their favor, I expect this team to continue to fight and I like their chances of coming away with a win tonight.

Seattle will send out Taijuan Walker, who hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in all 4 of his starts this season. Walker has had some trouble going deep into games, but this should be a good matchup for him. Toronto isn't an over patient team, which should hep Walker keep his walks down and in turn his pitch count.

As for the Blue Jays, they counter with Mark Buehrle, who comes in struggling to the tune of a 5.21 ERA and 1.526 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Buehrle has allowed 9 runs on 17 hits in his last 12 innings of work.

Seattle is 17-4 in their last 21 after scoring 2 runs or less, 5-1 in their last 6 after losing the first 2 games of a series and 4-1 in Walker's last 5 road starts.

There's also a strong system in play on the Mariners. Road underdogs of +100 to +150 with a AL starting pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.500 to 1.600 against an opponent that draws 3 or less walks/game are 43-28 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 61% system in favor of the Mariners.

Jack Jones

Kansas City Royals -107

The Kansas City Royals (86-71) have come through huge when these games have mattered most with three consecutive victories. They have nearly clinched a wild card spot and are just one game back of Detroit in the AL Central race.

Cleveland (82-76) has a magic number of one game, meaning one more loss would eliminate the Indians from postseason contention. Opening this series with two losses to the Royals has pretty much sealed their fate, and I don't even expect them to show up tonight.

Kansas City has the edge on the mound in this one behind Jason Vargas, who is 11-10 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.268 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 5-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.249 WHIP in 13 road starts. He'll be opposed by Trevor Bauer, who is 5-8 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 25 starts this year.

The Royals are 16-4 (+10.8 Units) against the money line after three straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs this season. Kansas City is 38-14 in its last 52 games as a road favorite. The Indians are 0-7 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Cleveland is 0-4 in Bauer's last four starts.

Steve Janus

Cleveland Indians -101

The Indians may have ruined their chances of making the playoffs by dropping the first two games of this series at home, but I don't see Cleveland laying down for Kansas City in the finale. There's a lot of pride on the line for the Indians and there's some satisfaction to be had of potentially ruining the Royals chances of making the postseason.

Cleveland will send out Trevor Bauer, who has a respectable 3.43 ERA and 1.274 WHIP over 13 home starts and a solid 3.79 ERA and 0.842 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Kansas City's Jason Vargas on the other hand comes in struggling. Vargas has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts, resulting in an awful 9.01 ERA and 1.644 WHIP. Vargas also has a less than impressive 4.88 ERA and 1.313 WHIP over 8 career starts against the Indians.

Key Trends - Royals are 1-4 in Vargas' last 5 road starts and 2-6 in their last 8 games following a win. Cleveland is 25-8 in their last 33 home games vs a left-handed starter and 8-1 in their last 9 during game 3 of a series.

System - Home teams who have won 51% to 54% of their games with a money line of -100 to -150 off 2 straight upset losses to a division rival as a home favorite are 59-20 (75%) against the money line since 1997.

Dave Price

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -103

The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with Kershaw. They are 19-1 in his last 20 starts, including 6-0 in his last six. Each of their last five victories with Kershaw on the mound have come by at least two runs. San Francisco's Hudson is struggling. The Giants are 0-4 in his last four starts, and he's allowed 20 runs in just 16 1-3 innings during this stretch. Each of the last three losses with Hudson on the hill have come by at least five runs. Hudson was rocked in his most recent start against the Dodgers, giving up six runs in one inning in a game the Giants lost 17-0. Kershaw has an ERA of 1.45 in 24 career starts against San Francisco.

Bryan Power

Seattle vs. Toronto
Pick: Seattle

Though the Mariners have done nothing over the L4 days (outscored 42-10!) to justify a play on them here, I'll recommend a small wager on them. Things went from "bad to worse" last night as they lost 10-2 in Toronto, a game where they started their ace Felix Hernandez. Entering Wednesday, the M's now trail Oakland and Kansas City by three games in the Wild Card chase. So their margin for error is basically now nil. I can't see them continuing to lose this badly on a daily basis.

Toronto will start Mark Buehrle. The veteran southpaw had a great start to the season, as did the Blue Jays, but like his team he's tailed off significantly. Over his L3 starts, Buehrle has a 5.21 ERA and 1.526 WHIP. He allowed five runs in a loss to the Yankees his last time out. Seattle is 30-22 vs. lefties this year.

The Mariners also have been one of the league's best road teams (45-34) thanks to their pitching staff, whose collective ERA has ranked near the top of the league all season. That makes the recent slide all the more perplexing. Taijuan Walker was the last starter to win and gets the nod again tonight. He's allowed 3 ER or less in all but one start this year. Somehow, the M's will find a way to win.

Wunderdog

Chicago @ Detroit
Pick: Detroit -121

The Detroit Tigers have not had the season that most expected, but there is a huge margin for error with this team that sports the last three Cy Young Award winners in their rotation, and a deep lineup. THe White Sox have been very good behind Chris Sale, but the bullpen is not getting it done, and the White Sox were walked-off last night in another road loss here. Sale has pitched well but the Sox are just 3-6 in his last nine road starts, and he allowed 5 runs last time out for the most he has given up all season. The Tigers have won five of Verlander's last six starts, and Detroit is now 9-1 in their last 10 at home vs. a team with a losing road record. The White Sox are just 6-13 behind Sale on the road in his last 19 road starts, and the Tigers are now 15-4 vs. Chicago in Verlander's last 19 starts. Chicago is just 11-28 in their last 39 here, so play on Detroit.