Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 25

Rob Vinciletti

Kansas City vs. Seattle
Play: Under 6.5

This one just missed the unit rated cut. The current total is 6.5 in this one and has it been 7 or 7.5 we would have unit rated. However for our free selection it will do just fine. We note that home favorites with a total that is 8 or less that are off a home dog win and scored 4 or less runs with no errors have played under 13 of 15 times vs an opponent off a road favored loss if they scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits. We have a solid pitching match in this one with E. Santana for KC against Iwakuma for Seattle, making his 1st appearance vs the Royals. Iwakuma has a solid 3.08 home era and has been finishing strong with a 1.31 era in his last 3 starts. Santana has an equally solid 3.03 road era and has a 1.71 era in his last 3 starts. KC has played under 8 straight times on the road after scoring 2 or less on the road and 14 of 18 as a road dog from +100 to +120. Seattle has stayed under 6 of the last 7 at home off a home dog win where they scored 4 or less runs. Look for this one to stay under.

Will Rogers

Milwaukee vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta

Just like yesterday, the Braves seem a little bit undervalued here, no? They are still competing for homefield advantage in the National League, entering the day they have only a one-half game advantage over St. Louis for that honor, so they can't afford to be dropping games to a team like Milwaukee. I have them winning today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Homefield Advantage - The Braves are now 8-1 at Turner Field when hosting the Brewers. Why is getting the homefield advantage so important to Atlanta this postseason? Because they are a MLB best 53-23 at home this season! Tonight's starter Paul Maholm has a 2.18 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in nine home starts this year (7-2 TSR).

2. Brewers vs. Lefties - Milwaukee is a terrible 15-27 vs. lefties this season, so facing Maholm is not a preferrable matchup for them.

3. X-Factor - The last time Brewers starter Kyle Lohse started on the road, he allowed seven runs on 11 hits in just five innings. That was against the Cubs. For the year, Lohse has a subpar 4.15 ERA on the road.

Matt Fargo

LA Dodgers vs. San Francisco
Pick: LA Dodgers

The Dodgers took the opener of this series last night behind another strong performance from Hyun-Jin Ryu to remain two games behind Atlanta for the best record in the National League. Trying to secure that best record is still the goal as it means home field advantage throughout the National League playoffs and while Los Angeles does not control its own destiny, it simply needs to keep winning and hope for some help. The Dodgers have won three straight games on this roadtrip to improve to 45-34 on the highway and they are 8-1 in their last nine road games against teams with a losing home record. They send Ricky Nolasco to the hill whose career in Los Angeles got off to a great start but he has struggled over his last two outings. He has allowed 11 runs in 6.2 innings over those games and he is in desperate need of a big game in order to try and lockdown a postseason roster spot. Despite one of those poor outings being against the Giants, Nolasco has a 2.73 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 10 career starts against them while allowing three runs or less in nine of those. The Dodgers are 7-1 in his last eight road starts. It has been a nightmare season for the reigning World Series Champions as San Francisco is 13 games under .500 after finishing 26 games over .500 in winning the National League West last season. The offense has been able to produce nothing as over the last five games, the Giants have scored a combined six runs. Barry Zito gets the start over Madison Bumgarner who has been shut down for the season and he has been awful of late so it is no surprise he has not pitched since September 2nd. He has an 8.76 ERA over his last nine starts. He has allowed four runs or more in seven of those starts while making it out of the fifth inning only twice. This will be his last start in a Giants uniform so it is a big one for him but I cannot see him climbing out of his hole.

Jimmy Boyd

San Diego Padres -125

The Arizona Diamondbacks have struggled against division opponents all season. They are below .500 in division games and have averaged just 4.1 runs per game. That will not be enough run support with Randall Delgado getting the start. In his past three starts Delgado has a 5.93 ERA, giving up six home runs in just 13.7 innings pitched.

The Padres will send Ian Kennedy to the mound and he has put up some solid numbers at home this season. Kennedy has a 4.32 ERA in his 13 home starts. With the Padres facing Randall Delgado I expect them to jump out to an early lead. This matchup is going to come down to which bullpen can close out the game and the Padres have a big advantage. Arizona has blown 41% of their save opportunities, while the Padres have an 82.8% save rate in home games this season.

Steve Janus

Colorado Rockies +155

This is a solid spot to back the Rockies at home as a big dog. Colorado won the opener of this short 2-game series 8-3 on Tuesday and have won 3 of their last 5. I look for the Rockies to continue to play with a lot of pride tonight, as they try and play spoiler in the Red Sox attempt at finishing with the AL's best record.

The pitching matchup in this one certainly gives the Rockies a shot at pulling off the sweep. Colorado will send out Jhoulys Chacin, who is 14-9 with a 3.26 ERA in 30 starts. The Rockies are an impressive 12-5 when he takes the mound at home. Boston counters with Jake Peavy, who is notorious for not pitching up to his potential on the road. Peavy is just 4-5 with a 5.09 ERA on the road this season with his team having lost 8 of his 13 starts. This is a clear value play on the home team and it doesn't hurt that the home team is 61-35 when umpire Andy Fletcher is behind the plate.

Art Aronson

Kansas City vs. Seattle
Play: Under 6½

The visiting Kansas City Royals will send Ervin Santana (9-9, 3.16 ERA) to the hill at Safeco Field. Santana allowed one run over 7 1/3 innings Friday against the Rangers, but was handed a no-decision. Santana is 12-7 with a 4.07 ERA lifetime versus the Mariners. Santana has been solid on the road this season with an ERA of 3.02 away from friendly confines. The Mariners will go with consistently solid Hisashi Iwakuma (13-6, 2.76 ERA). Iwakuma allowed just four hits while shutting out the Tigers in an 8-0 win over the Tigers in his last start on Wensday. It was his second straight start and third in his last three where went 7 plus innings while holding the opponents to zero runs. At home this season, Iwakuma has a 5-3 record with a 3.02 ERA. Five of eight games between these two teams held in Seattle have seen the lower number fall while Ervin Santana has seen his last three starts do the same. Consider taking a long look at the “under.”

Doug Upstone

Pittsburgh Pirates -175

On Wednesday, Play Against underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the Chicago Cubs, batting .250 or less as a team, against a good NL starting pitcher (Francisco Liriano) with an ERA of 3.70 or lower, with a starting pitcher (Jake Arrieta) who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start. In the past five years, this MLB system is 121-42, 74.2 percent.

Nick Parsons

Kansas City Royals +106

The visitors are essentially playing for their postseason lives today. If the Tribe win at home vs. the White Sox, then the Royals will officially be eliminated from the wild-card race.

The M's are relishing the role of spoiler and send a smoking hot starter to the bump.

After yesterday's 4-0 loss and with their season on the line, the Royals send one of their best to the mound to counter.

I definitely feel that Kansas City offers great value in this situation.

Ervin Santana (9-9, 3.23 ERA)

Santana was saddled with a no-decision after giving up one earned run off five hits and one walk while striking out four over 7 1/3's innings in his team's 2-1 win over the Rangers on Friday.

The veteran has been rock-solid down the stretch; he's faced the Rangers and Tigers over his last two starts and has given up just one earned run over 14 innings of work.

This is Santana's final regular season start and he'll be looking to improve upon his already very respectable 3.02 ERA road mark.

Hisashi Iwakuma (12-6, 2.87 ERA)

Iwakuma gave up just four hits over eight shutout frames vs. the Tigers on Wednesday. Iwakuma has been lights-out on the road all season as he has now thrown 25 consecutive scoreless innings away from friendly confines.

Curiously though, Iwakuma is 0-2 with a ballooned 4.91 ERA in his last four starts in the Pacific Northwest.

The Bottom Line

It's interesting to note that Santana is 7-4 with a 4.00 ERA in 14 outings at Safeco Park, owning more wins there than at any other visiting ballpark.

My opinion is that these starters are a "wash".

But there are obvious big motivational factors working in favor of the visitors today.

With playoff implications on the line for the Royals, this line is just too good to pass over.

Consider a look at Kansas City tonight.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5

Your free pick for Wednesday, September 25th, 2013, comes in the National League as the Cubs and Pirates meet in Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh is motivated, striving for a postseason spot, and has ace Francisco Liriano (16-7, 2.92 ERA) going. He is 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA against the Cubs. This Chicago offense is terrible, 24th in baseball in runs scored, 29th batting average, plus 29th in on base percentage. Chicago is on a 17-36 run, and the Cubs are 8-23 in their last 31 home games. Starter Jake Arrieta (3-4, 5.49 ERA) has been erratic and walks too many batters, 38 free passes in 62 innings. Chicago is stumbling down the stretch and the Cubs are 20-41 in their last 61 vs. the National League Central and the Pirates are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

Wunderdog

Arizona at San Diego
Pick: Arizona +100

It most certainly has been a rocky season for the San Diego Padres. This team has either been on fire or ice cold. The problem is that the flames haven't lasted long enough, and the frigid offense has prevailed far too often. The result is 11 games under .500, and after a good run, the offense is back in the deep freeze. The Padres have tallied a total of 11 runs in their last seven games, or just 1.57 per contest, and it's hard to trust a team to get it done when they just aren't swinging the bats. They have another problem with Ian Kennedy on the mound, as he has an ERA of over 5 on the season, winning just six times. The D-Backs have risen to the occasion, capturing six straight in game 3 of a series. Back Arizona in this one.

Sam Martin

Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

We backed the Mariners last night as our premium selection, and Seattle came through for us with a 4-0 shutout win. We'll back them here as our free pick, as the general reasons for last night's play are still in effect. Iwakuma takes the hill for Seattle, and he's been a solid home pitcher this year going 10-6 (team start record) with a 3.06 ERA. Even better, he's tossed back-to-back shutout efforts in his last two starts, holding St. Louis scoreless over seven innings and then most recently shutting out Detroit over eight innings - picking up the win as a huge +160 underdog. Now a desperate Kansas City team is up next, and with the Royals loss yesterday along with Cleveland and Texas both winning the writing is now on the wall for the Royals that they will come up short. Ervin Santana faced Seattle once this year, allowing four runs in just 3 1/3 IP in a 6-4 loss (no decision) as a big -160 favorite. Back the better and hotter pitcher here with excellent line value.

Dave Price

Philadelphia Phillies -157

The Phillies are 43-21 in their last 64 against the Marlins, including 7-3 in their last 10 in Miami. Look for them to continue their dominance of the Fish behind a gem from Hamels. The southpaw has quietly been dealing. The Phillies are 7-1 in his last 8 starts, and he has given up 3 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 11 outings. When Brad Hand gets a start, it typically doesn't go well. The Marlins are 0-7 in Hand's last 7 starts. The Phillies will welcome the lefty to the rubber as they are 6-0 in their last 6 games versus a left-handed starter. Take Philly.

Jack Jones

Boston Red Sox -125

Despite clinching a playoff spot, the Boston Red Sox still have a lot to play for the rest of the way. They lead the Oakland A's by one game for the No. 1 seed in the American League and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

I'll back them at a generous price tonight as only a small favorite over the Colorado Rockies (72-86), who sit in last place in the NL West division.

The Red Sox send Jake Peavy to the mound tonight as he looks to continue to prove he can still get it done in the big leagues. Peavy is 11-5 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 22 starts this season.

The Red Sox are 40-13 in their last 53 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rockies are 15-40 in their last 55 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Colorado is 2-9 in its last 11 vs. AL East opponents. The Rockies are 5-21 in their last 26 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. Colorado is 7-19 in Jhoulys Chacin's last 26 starts as an underdog. Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

SPORTS WAGERS

ST. LOUIS -113 over Washington

The Nationals fought hard. They had a very ordinary season up until mid-August and then they started to roll but it was a case of too little too late for perhaps the best team in the league that’s not going to the playoffs. After officially being eliminated with Monday’s 4-3 loss, Washington had little enthusiasm in yesterday’s 2-0 setback. The Nats have dropped three of four and their enthusiasm doesn’t figure to pick up today. The Cardinals are still battling for the Central Division title so they have motivation to keep on winning. St. Louis has won six of eight and no team can sniff out a wounded animal better than these Cardinals.

Jordan Zimmerman has ace-like numbers but he does not possess ace-like skills. He’s good but he’s also been very lucky with a 78% strand rate, one of the highest marks in the game among pitchers with 20 or more starts. Additionally, Zimmerman has always had difficulty with this Cardinals line-up. Current Cards are hitting a robust .371 off him. Meanwhile, Shelby Miller has been one of MLB's most dominant pitchers when throwing at home: 9-3 with a 1.77 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, 10.1 K’s per nine and a 48% groundball rate. Frankly, this is a cheap price on one of the league’s best home teams with huge incentive.

Tampa Bay -1½ +104 over N.Y. YANKEES

The 2013 Yankees eulogy has all been written and now they need more than a miracle to appear in the post-season. For all intensive purposes, the Yanks are out and if they had even a remote chance, they would not be sending out Phil Hughes today. Hughes is 1-9 at Yankee Stadium with a 6.13 ERA. He’s been tagged for 17 jacks in a mere 76 innings at home and it all stems from a 51% fly-ball rate. Simply put, Phil Hughes can’t keep the ball in the yard at home and he can’t get anyone out these days either. Over his past five starts, lasting a combined 13 lousy innings, (Girardi has been pulling him early at the first sign of trouble), Hughes has posted a 1.74 WHIP and a 7.11 ERA. Hughes has completed six innings only twice in his past eight starts and has not recorded a win as a starter since July 7 (11 starts ago) so this is not the place to go looking for those fickle wins.

David Price is dialed in. Price has a 4.05 ERA over his past five starts but his xERA of 3.13 over that same span is a true indicator of just how tough he’s been. Price has carbon-copied his 2012 skills since the all-star break and threw in a groundball % spike to create a masterful second half. Both in terms of skills and results, 2H was just about flawless so it's not at all out on a limb to call for a great game here. Price is one of the best around.