Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday September, 26

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
NY Yankees vs. Minnesota
Pick: OverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Yankees continue to hold off the Orioles as they hope to win the A.L. East. They play an afternoon affair against the Twins on Wednesday. Samuel Deduno makes his first ever start against the Bronx Bombers. He is 6-5 with a 4.54 ERA in 14 starts for Minnesota. Deduno has allowed 13 runs and 13 hits in his last three starts; he has struggled to get out of the fourth inning in his last two games. Deduno has had control issues in the past and that will not help while facing a patient team like the Yankees. New York is hitting .262 in the daytime while scoring 5.2 runs per game. They have scored 4 runs or more in four straight games and in five of their last six games overall. Minnesota's bullpen has 18 losses and 12 blown saves so they can be beaten should they be called upon.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
CC Sabathia is 13-6 with a 3.47 ERA in 26 starts for the Yankees with 16 of those games going Over the total. On the road, the lefty is 7-2 with a 4.17 ERA and 10 Overs in 14 starts. He had given up 9 runs and 14 hits over a 2-game stretch before shutting out the Athletics over eight innings in his last start. Jamey Carroll (3-8) and Alexi Casilla (10-18) hit the Yankees’ starter well. The Twins are hitting right around .260 in their last eight games and right around .280 at home. The Yankees’ bullpen has shown a leak or two as of late so the Twins could get to them if need be. These two teams have played four Overs in their five games this season, and we expect another high-scoring game on Wednesday afternoon.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Washington vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Nationals' (93-61) John Lannan (3-0, 4.43 ERA) is set to square off against the Phillies' (78-76) Kyle Kendrick (10-11, 3.89 ERA) on the mound this evening.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Lannan gave up six runs in 3 2/3's frames of work vs. the Dodgers in his last start, very lucky to earn a no-decision for his brutal effort. Unfortunately for Lannan, a date vs. the Phillies is NOT what the doctor ordered, as he's 2-12 with a deplorable 5.79 ERA in 17 career starts vs. them.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Kendrick has gotten stronger as the season has worn on, coming into this contest having gone 6-2 with a 2.17 ERA over his last eight starts. He's rung up 43 K's to just eight walks in that stretch. Unlike his counterpart, Kendrick has had tremendous success vs. the Nationals, going 2-1 with a very respectable 2.21 ERA in his last six starts in the series.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I gave the Phillies as a free play yesterday, and I like them once again this evening. They sit 5.5 games behind St. Louis for the NL's second wild-card spot with eight games to play.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
This is a clear pitching mis-match in my estimation, and I actually feel that Kendrick and home side should in fact be much bigger favs.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
As a result, I have no problem in recommending to lay what I deem to be a very reasonable price!

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Arizona vs. San Francisco
Pick: San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Giants dropped the opener of this series last night and they have now lost two straight games since going on a 10-1 run to clinch the National League West. Winning may not seem like a priority at this point with the playoffs already in hand but two things can debate that. The last thing San Francisco wants to do is go into the postseason riding some negative momentum and the best record in the National League is still on the line so playoff seedings are still up for grabs. The Giants are now 9-1 in their last 10 games as favorites and they are 26-6 in their last 32 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Matt Cain continues to dominate as he looks to be getting even stronger as the season winds down. He has allowed more than two runs only once in his last eight starts while posting a 2.45 ERA over that stretch. He has been incredible at home with a 2.17 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 14 starts and this will be his first start against Arizona at home this season. Cain is 4-1 with a 2.26 ERA in his last eight home starts against the Diamondbacks and the Giants are 21-9 in his last 30 starts as a home favorite between -110 and -150. Arizona is still mathematically alive in the Wild Card chase but it will a minor miracle to get in as it is 5.5-games back with three other teams either tied or in front. The Diamondbacks have been playing very good down the stretch as the offense has been producing huge but tonight will be a big test against Cain. They send Wade Miley to the hill and while he has had a very good season, he has struggled of late. He has a 5.34 ERA over his last five starts and he has allowed five runs in each of his last two starts on the road. His last quality start in fact came against the Giants but that was at home and Arizona has not fared well in these spots as it is 0-5 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia PhilliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Phillies fit a nice system that has cashed 40 of 55 times the last 9 years as we play on certain home favorites off a -140 or higher home favored win by 2 or more runs while scoring 5 or more runs in a game where the total was 8 or less and the opponent is off a 2+ run road loss and scored 4 or less runs with 5 or more men left on base and had no errors. Lannan for the Nationals has a 3-14 record vs Philadelphia and has allowed 10 runs in his last 8 innings here. Kendrick for the Phillies has been solid vs Washington allowing just 5 runs in his last 3 starts spanning 19 innings vs the Nationals. With the Phillies playing hard this month and winning 15 of 22 we will back the once against here tonight. Take Philadelphia.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Two teams running out the string here. Drew Pomeranz has been shaky of late for Colorado, but I can see him limiting the Cubs. Jason Berken is throwing almost all fastballs with an occasional change. Can't see that working at Coors, where mixing it up and getting some deception is of paramount importance. I'll go Rockies here.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Cubs have young Jason Berken going in Coors Field, a tough place to pitch. The Cubs are 16-36 in their last 52 overall and 16-43 in their last 59 road games. Chicago comes to town with a terrible offense, 28th in runs scored and on base percentage, while the Rockies are a Top 10 offense, sixth in runs scored and OBP, fourth in slugging. The Rockies are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and the Cubs are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in Colorado. Play the Colorado Rockies!

MLB Predictions

Los Angeles Angels - 136

The Angels pushed their winning streak to 4 games last night with a 5-4 victory over the Mariners. Seattle struck out 20 times in the loss, with Grienke going 5 innings allowing 1 run against with 13 strikeouts. Los Angeles is 85-69 (45-34 at home) and they are looking to make a run for a Wild Card spot, while the Mariners are 72-82 (34-42) and looking to play spoiler. Take note that the Mariners have scored just 21 runs over their last 8 games (2.63 runs per game), while Los Angeles has scored 19 runs over their 4 game winning streak (4.75 per game). On the mound for Seattle tonight is Felix Hernandez who is 13-8 with a 2.85 ERA on the season. His ERA is a bit higher on the road at 3.46, while his September ERA through 4 starts is 6.38 (and he has an 0-3 record over those 4 starts). C.J Wilson takes the rubber for Los Angeles and he is 12-10 on the season with a 3.82 ERA. He is 5-6 at home with a slightly better 3.69 ERA, and he is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA over 4 September starts. Take note that the Mariners are 2-6 in their last 8 games, 1-4 in their last 5 road games, and 0-4 in Hernandez' last 4 starts. The Angels are 19-7 in their last 26 games overall, 17-5 in their last 22 games following a win, and 5-1 in Wilson's last 6 starts. Head to head the Mariners are just 16-39 in their last 55 meetings overall, and 17-42 in their last 59 meetings in Los Angeles. Seattle is just 3-10 in Hernandez' last 13 starts vs LAA. With Felix being shaky lately and the Mariners putting up few runs I expect Wilson to step up in a big game and the Angels to get a victory they desperately need for their post season hopes. Take Los Angeles at home on the moneyline.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Toronto +159 over BALTIMORE
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Orioles were supposed to beat Ricky Romero and Aaron Laffey these past two days but instead lost them both, being outscored 13-5. Pressure heightens here and things won’t get easier against Toronto’s Carlos Villanueva.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Villanueva has worked exclusively as a starter in the 2H. He has solid numbers right across the board, including 115 K’s in 121 innings to go along with a 3.95 xERA. This righty has a history of consistency and good numbers and surely warrants a close look against an Orioles team that has overachieved all year and is now feeling the heat.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Miguel Gonzalez has done exactly what the team he’s pitching for has done - overachieve. At age 28, Gonzalez has worked diligently to get to the big leagues. However, the numbers suggest that he’s pitched over his head and the reality of pro sports does not always provide a happy ending. Gonzalez’s ERA has been fed by unsustainable hit and strand percentages. A decisive fly-ball % lean shows more trouble. His more pedestrian xERA (4.46) is an indication of Gonzalez' true talent. The end result here is an overvalued pitcher looking to help snap his club out of a mini-funk and we surely prefer to be on the other side of that.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
COLORADO -1½ +153 over Chicago
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Cubs played spoiler. They took five out of seven games against the Pirates to destroy their playoff hopes, swept the Reds and took two of three from the Cardinals. They now go back to being insignificant and promptly dropped the first game of this series 10-5 in 7-inning shortened game last night. Expect more of the same here with Jason Berken on the hill.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Berken is a recent waiver-wire claim that could not stick in the Orioles rotation or bullpen and subsequently posted middling skills at Baltimore’s AAA affiliate. In just 11 innings with Colorado, he’s posted an xERA of 5.75. He walks too many, he gives up too many long balls and he’s simply not major-league ready.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Drew Pomeranz is 1-9 with a 5.30 ERA. That’s not pretty but it allows us to back a strongly undervalued pitcher against a lousy team with a take back that is too juicy to pass up on. Pomeranz came into the big leagues with plenty of hype but has not delivered. He’s now entering post-hype profit territory. He posted excellent strikeout rates in both July and August, as well as good command. His skills vs. LH bats have been as good as any in the league with a .192 BAA and 50% groundball rate. This is a true buy low pitcher against a weak-hitting and unmotivated team.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Oakland +130 over TEXAS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Rangers are a comfortable four games ahead of the A’s in the division with just eight games remaining but Oakland is still very much in the hunt for a playoff spot, as they’re tied with the Orioles for a Wild Card spot. The A’s have played the Rangers tough all season and there’s nothing to suggest this one will be any different.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Jarrod Parker has enjoyed a nice season in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery (3.40 ERA, 1.26 WHIP). His base skills have lagged behind for a good portion of the year but in the 2H have been much better. Parker is walking less while striking out more. His groundball rate has gone from average (40%) to solid (46%) and as a result, he’s worth an investment against Martin Perez.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Perez received this promotion due to an injury to Roy Oswalt and the ineffectiveness of Scott Feldman. He picked up the pieces of Feldman's rough outing with 4.1 scoreless innings (1 BB, 5 K) on September 15. Little else suggests Perez is ready for a promotion. At Triple-A Round Rock, Perez struggled with his strikeout rate and command all season with an ugly 69/56 K/BB over 127 IP. Dating back to June 30, the Rangers have dropped all eight games he’s appeared in over that span, suggesting they like him as a mop-up guy. If management prefers him in that role, we’re not about to spot a tag with him starting.

WunderdogFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers +110
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Dodgers quick start in April and into May quickly eroded into a nightmare, as they began to struggle offensively. They stand 4.5 games out in the last wildcard position, and will likely have to run the table going forward to have a shot. Aaron Harang certainly is a good option to get things done tonight. Over his last eight starts Harang has not produced a single one where he has allowed more than 3 runs. Clayton Richard has pitched six straight winners for the Padres, however his last five starts hardly show justification as he has pitched to a 4.22 ERA in them. The Dodgers’ best road spot has been against left-handed pitching where they are 10-3 in their last 13. The Padres are just 4-9 in Richard's last 13 home starts vs. a winning team. Back the Dodgers in this one.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Cincinnati Reds -130
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Cincinnati Reds (93-61) are tied with the Washington Nationals for the best record in the National League. They certainly want home-field advantage and won't be taking the Milwaukee Brewers lightly tonight. Milwaukee is 4.5 games back of the final wild-card spot with eight games to play, and it realizes its chances of making the playoffs are slim to none.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Bronson Arroyo is having a solid season at 12-8 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.194 WHIP over 30 starts. He has been even more dominant of late, going 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three outings. He'll be up against Shaun Marcum, who has posted a 6.00 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in his last three starts.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Arroyo is 13-8 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 25 career starts against Milwaukee. Marcum has never beaten Cincinnati, going 0-1 (0-3 on the money line) with a 4.07 ERA and 1.302 WHIP in three career starts against the Reds.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Brewers are 16-40 in their last 56 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Milwaukee is 1-5 in Marcum's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Reds are 45-18 in their last 63 games as a favorite. Cincinnati is 7-2 in Arroyo's last 9 starts as a favorite. Bet the Reds Wednesday.

Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
LA Angels -134
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Mariners are 0-4 in Felix Hernandez's last 4 starts, 3-10 in his last 13 starts versus the Angels and 1-7 in his last 8 road starts versus them. The Angels are 5-1 in Wilson's last 6 starts, and he is 8-3 on the money line in 11 career starts against the Mariners. Bet the Halos.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
San Francisco Giants -145
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Giants have the edge on the pitcher's mound with ace Matt Cain, who's 15-5 (20-10 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.86. The Giants have won seven of his last eight starts, and he has given up 2 runs or fewer seven times during this span. Cain has especially been sharp at home where he has an ERA of 2.17. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 9-3 in his last 12 starts versus Diamondbacks and 7-1 in his last 8 home starts against them.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Wade Miley has had a good season for Arizona, but his numbers don't quite stack up to Cain's. He is 15-10 (16-11 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.25. He hasn't been as sharp on the road where he has an ERA of 3.67 and enters in a bit of a rough patch, as evidenced by the 6.38 ERA he's posted over his last three starts. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Miley's last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record. Take the Giants.

Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Los Angeles Angels -134
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Seattle's Felix Hernandez hasn't been as sharp lately, and the Mariners have lost each of his last four starts as a result. He has struggled against the Angels this season, allowing five runs in each of his three starts against them. The M's are just 3-10 in his last 13 starts against the Halos. Bet LAA on the money line.

OC Dooley

Nationals / Phillies Over 8.5

Many reading this analysis are most likely aware that the rotation spot currently occupied by John Lannan is actually the position that was held by Washington ace Stephen Strasburg (innings limit) before he was shut down. Odds are for the Nationals to be successful this evening they will have to produce more offense especially since Lannan’s career record against Philadelphia (2-12) is a disaster. For those who watch this ESPN2 telecast keep an eye out for Washington nineteen year old Bryce Harper who in 7 career appearances inside Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park has an astronomical batting average (.370). On the other side of the ledger the Phillies offense receive d a boost in the outfield last night as rookie Darin Ruf swatted a homerun. Ruf actually led all minor leaguers this season in HOMERS (38) and was just called up to the “big show”. One of the reasons why they are on the brink of clinching the National League East divisional crown is that for most of the season Washington has had the best starting rotation ERA in the majors, but since the shut down of Strasburg the Nationals are now having problems coming out on the winning end of the scoreboard as the pitching statistics have suffered. For the entire season to date when off 3 consecutive games that made it above the posted spot, Washington is 20-9 OVER the total