Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 29,2010

David Chan

Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Chicago Cubs

The oddsmaker keeps putting out the San Diego Padres as mid-range favorites and the Chicago Cubs keep beating them.

I've cashed the past two days on the Cubs-Padres and am coming back today with a free selection on Chicago.

Why not? The Cubs are playing loose and great. They are the hottest road club at 16-3. They also are 12-4 the past 16 times they've been underdogs.

The Cubs aren't conceding anything to the Padres. They are playing their veterans going all out in this series, which is crucial for San Diego.

The Padres were one of this season's biggest overachievers. But now the pressure has caught up to San Diego. The Padres are 11-21 in their last 32 games.

Right-hander Randy Wells is going for Chicago. San Diego has lost 16 of the past 22 times it has faced a righty. Wells has pitched much better during the stretch. He's allowed one earned run during his past two starts spanning 15 2/3 innings. He also has an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. The Padres are averaging 2.2 runs in their last seven games.

Chris Young gets the start for San Diego. This is just his third start since spending 5 1/2 months on the DL with a strained right shoulder. He's still going to be on a pitch count and is in a tough spot with all the pressure on the Padres. San Diego's bullpen hasn't been as good lately either having been overworked.

Scott Spreitzer

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Minnesota Twins

Enough is enough already. The Twins have dropped five in a row against inferior competition, and they're now a full two games back of Tampa Bay for the top record in the American League. But tonight, they get "just what the doctor ordered." Scott Baker takes the bump and he'll face the anemic Kansas City "attack." Baker owns strong numbers against the Royals. He's also been pitching well in general. The righthander has held his last nine opponents to 18 earned runs and 63 base runners in 51 2/3 innings of work. That translates to a 3.13 ERA & 1.22 WHIP. The Twins are 8-1 in those nine outings. The Royals will counter with Luke Hochevar, who's been crushed by the Twins in seven career appearances. Jim Thome and J.J. Hardy will miss this one, but the Twins may get back the services of Joe Mauer as tonight's DH. Minnesota has not been swept in KC in 16 years. I expect them to keep that streak alive with a win tonight. I'm playing the Twins on Wednesday.

Jim Feist
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Take: Arizona Diamondbacks

This is the third time the Diamondbacks gave faced young lefty Madison Bumgarner. He's not an innings-eater, averaging 6 innings his last three starts and he faces an Arizona offense that is better in runs scored than the Giants, and better in slugging and on base percentage. Starter Ian Kennedy has been strong all season and is red hot, with a 1.13 ERA his last three starts. He's also dominated the Giants this season, with a 2.20 ERA allowing 16 hits in 28+ innings and 27 Ks. Play the Diamondbacks!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Houston Astros +108

After celebrating their first trip to the postseason in 15 years, defeating the Astros on a Jay Bruce walk off, I don't expect the Reds to be focused on a meaningless game tonight. You can bet the partying continued into the wee hours. Plus, manager Dusty Baker is expected to rest several key players. Cueto is expected to get the ball, but he has really struggled. The Reds have lost each of his last 4 starts, and he was touched for 8 runs in just 1 1/3 innings at Milwaukee his last time out. In addition, Cueto doesn't have a good history with Houston. He's just 1-4 (2-7 on the money line) lifetime with an ERA of 4.36. We'll fade the Reds in this letdown spot this evening.

Frank Jordan

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Baltimore Orioles

Kevin Millwood has had a season to forget in Baltimore. Most thought he was brought in to give a veteran presence and would do ok with the young team behind him. Instead he has gotten bombed with an era over 5 and a 3-16 record. However he hasn't pitched too poorly against Tampa this year with two previous starts he is 0-1, but has only allowed 6 earned runs in those two starts just not getting support. Look for Millwood, who has gotten two of his three runs on the road to step it up as the Rays will be very relaxed after clinching a playoff birth last night.

Ben Burns

Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers

Harden has dominated Seattle in the past. He's 5-2 with a superb 1.88 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in eight starts vs. the Mariners. Note that the M's haven't faced Harden (as a starter) in a few years, which could work to his advantage. Granted, this is not the same Harden that, when healthy, used to rank among the best pitchers in the game. I believe that he's still capable though. (He has a 3.79 ERA in eight home starts with the Rangers going 5-3.) He'll be motivated to help his team avoid the sweep and I expect him to receive some solid run support.

While Harden hasn't started against Seattle for some time, the Rangers have seen plenty of Vargas this season. In three 2010 starts vs. Texas, Vargas is 1-2 with an ugly 6.23 ERA. Note that Vargas is 0-3 with a 5.71 ERA his last three starts. For the season, he's 2-7 with a 5.21 ERA in 14 road starts. The M's were a money-burning 3-11 (-6.8) in those games, including a 6-2 loss here at Texas. True, the Rangers are just trying to get ready for the playoffs. Getting swept at home by Seattle isn't what they need though. Consider laying the wood.

BIG AL

Phillies @ Nationals
PICK: Under9

Regardless of the outcome of this, the last game for the Phillies in DC for 2010, the team will always look back fondly on Nationals Park for the 2010 season. On Monday night, this Philadelphia club clinched their fourth straight NL East pennant in the Nations Capital, and there were more than a handful of Phillies fans who had made the trek down I-95 to join in the celebration. Tonight, you can bet that Philadelphia will rest many of its starters (Tuesday night they sat Victorino, Werth, and Polanco) and not take any chances as they prepare for their quest for a third straight National League Chamionship. Righthander Joe Blanton will probably be on a pitch count, but even so, he could dominate this Nationals club as he has been surging late in the season and the Phils have won an incredible six straight Blanton starts and nine of his last 10 trips to the hill. Making his job that much easier is the fact that Washington's top player, third-baseman Ryan Zimmerman is out with an injury to his ribs and probably won't return this season. Without him, the Nationals have scored only six runs in their last four games. Take the 'under.'

Rocketman

Minnesota @ Kansas City 8:10 PM EST
Play: Minnesota

Minnesota is 92-65 overall this year while Kansas City comes in with a 65-92 overall record on the season. Minnesota is 27-15 last 3 years after 3 or more consecutive losses. Minnesota is 135-82 last 3 years against division opponents. Kansas City is 22-41 this year after a win. Minnesota bullpen has a 3.37 ERA overall this year and a 3.30 ERA on the road this season. Scott Baker is 12-9 overall this year and 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA his last 3 starts. Minnesota is 19-7 at Kansas City the past 3 years. Baker is 8-4 with a 3.44 ERA overall vs Kansas City since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!

LT Profits

Marlins / Braves Under 9

The first two games of this series between the Florida Marlins and the San Diego Padres have gone easily ‘under’, with the Braves winning by scores of 2-1 and 3-2, and we are looking for the teams to make it a hat trick of ‘unders’ today.

The bookmakers have installed a total of 9 on this contest, with the betting odds favoring the ‘under’ at -115.

Simply put, neither of these teams is hitting a lick right now. The Braves may still be fighting for a wild card spot, but they are hitting only .226 over the last 10 games including a woeful .209 vs. left-handed pitching, and they are averaging just 2.90 runs overall in those games. Meanwhile the Marlins are averaging only 3.20 runs over this same time with a team batting average of .216.

Atlantastarter Derek Lowe is in peak form, as he has allowed a grand total of three runs in his last four starts, with a 1.08 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over those outings. He has also had exceptional command in those appearances, with 20 strikeouts against two walks in 25 innings! Granted, Lowe has failed to record a Quality Start in two starts vs. Florida in 2010, but given his current form and the weak Marlins’ bats right now, this is a nice spot for revenge.

Now Florida’s southpaw starter Andrew Miller has been terrible lately, as he has allowed at least four earned runs in four straight starts. However, we simply do not feel the Braves are equipped to take advantage in their current offensive funk, and Miller did pitch well in his only start vs. Atlanta this season, allowing one run in five innings. That marked the third time in four career starts vs. the Braves that Miller has allowed one earned run or less.

Look for another ‘under’ in Atlanta on Wednesday.

SPORTS WAGERS

KANSAS CITY –1.05 over Minnesota

The Twinkies only concern is returning home for the final four games of the year to prepare for the playoffs. A game in Kansas City the night before they return home is about as appealing as a “KC and the Sunshine Band” concert. Minnesota will get some healthy bodies back in time for the playoffs but right now, Joe Mauer, Jim Thome and J.J Hardy all remain on the rack. Scott Baker will likely pitch the third or fourth game of the playoffs and chances are he’ll only throw between 80-90 pitches here. The Twins have dropped five straight but so what. They’re in and they’ll turn up the heat this weekend in preparation for the post-season. Baker missed close to three weeks with elbow problems and returned eight days ago when he threw five frames against the Tribe. He certainly won’t be looking to knock himself out here. He, too, is preparing for the playoffs and in no way will he over exert himself. Furthermore, the Royals have seen plenty of this guy and they’ve gotten to him this year for 15 hits in 12 IP and that includes three jacks and a BA of .303. The Royals continue to pound the ball, giving scored 94 runs in its past 17 games and 20 runs in the past two nights. The Twins bullpen is running on fumes. Luke Hochevar is hit and miss but he has a strong groundball profile and he’s facing a team that is simply not interested. This one is all about playing against the Twins, Scott Baker and a gassed bullpen, all anxious to get home. Play: Kansas City –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS

Colorado Rockies -166

The Rockies starting pitcher Jhoulys Chacin is in a groove. Chacin has been stellar since he was inserted back into the Colorado starting rotation on August 17th, going 4-2 with an ERA of 1.98. Over his last three starts Chacin has been even better posting a 1-1 record with an ERA of only 0.95. In his last start Chacin went head to head with the Giants ace Tim Lincecum for most of the game, giving up just three hits and two runs in seven innings of work. Chacin was pulled after 120 pitches and he struck out eight San Francisco batters and walked three in Colorado's 2-1 loss. The Dodgers send Carlos Monasterios to the mound in Clayton Kershaw's place for this start today. Monasterios has been in and out of the bullpen all season and in his last start on September 12th he was unable to get out of the second inning. Monasterios has an ERA of 10.57 over his last seven and 2/3 innings of work. The Dodgers are only 1-5 in Monasterios' last six starts against a team with a winning record. Play on Colorado.

Scott Delaney,

Milwaukee at NY METS (Game 2)

Now, about the Mets in Game 2 of the doubleheader...

A pitching showdown in this doubleheader-closer, and I'll side with R.A. Dickey, who has been New York’s most reliable starter this year.

After totaling 12 wins over his previous five seasons with Texas, Seattle and Minnesota, he is 11-8 with a stellar 2.92 ERA this year for the Mets.

At Citi Field, he is 7-2 with a 2.09 ERA in 10 games there.

The Mets have won three straight and have a little momentum for the final week of the season, so I'm going to play them in this late game.

5♦ N.Y. METS

Joel Tyson

Cubs (+145) at SAN DIEGO By , Featured Handicapper

As for your 7th straight comp play winner, go with the Cubs to keep the reeling Padres at bay again tonight.

San Diego's free fall is now at 3 in a row, and 21 of 32 on the losing end as the Padres playoff chances have taken a severe hit.

Chicago is loose-and-free right now, winners of 10 of their last 14. The Cubs have also won 16 of their last 21 away from home.

Randy Wells takes on Chris Young who is making just his fourth start of the year. Wells is a nice 2-1 his last 3 starts with an ERA just over 2.

The pressure is too much for the Padres, and they crack again tonight under it.

Take the Cubbies.

2♦ CUBS

Stephen Nover

Baltimore (+1', -120) at TAMPA BAY By Featured Handicapper

As for the free offering, I'm going to take the Orioles plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line against the heavily favored Rays.

The Rays clinched a playoff spot last night in beating the Orioles, 5-0. I'm expecting a much closer game today with a pitching matchup of Kevin Millwood versus Jeff Niemann.

Millwood is laughed at by the marketplace, which just sees his 3-16 record. The 16 losses are the most defeats of any pitcher. The guy has made 13 starts, though, versus the Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays and Twins.

Millwood didn't look good in his last outing, but he had a very respectable 3.02 ERA during his previous eight starts. Baltimore scored two or fewer runs in half of those starts. Millwood is a prideful veteran and a pending free agent. He'll be highly motivated in this his final start.

Millwood draws Jeff Niemann, the Rays' most vulnerable starter. Niemann won in his last start, giving up three runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings this past Friday against weak-hitting Seattle.

Niemann, however, had been 0-4 with a 14.43 ERA during his previous five starts after returning from a shoulder strain.

The Orioles are trying to avoid their first 100-loss season since 1988. It's a matter of pride with manager Buck Showalter, who has turned around the Orioles. Baltimore is 30-22 under Showalter.

3♦ BALTIMORE RUN -1.5

Bobby Maxwell,

Minnesota (-105) at KANSAS CITY

Minnesota has just dominated the Royals this season, taking 12 of the first 17 meetings. Today, they will make it 13 with right-hander Scott Baker (12-9, 4.52 ERA) on the mound opposite the Royals’ Luke Hochevar (6-6, 4.92).

Baker pitched well in his last outing, limiting the Indians to one earned run over five innings of a 6-4 victory. The Twins have won eight of his last nine starts and he’s held the opposition to three runs or less in seven of those nine. Against the Royals, the Twins have won three of Baker’s last four starts, including each of his last two in Kansas City.

Hochevar has been knocked around a bit lately, including on Friday in Cleveland when he allowed four runs on eight hits in five innings of a 7-5 loss. He’s allowed three or more runs in four of his last six starts and the Twins punished him in two April starts, putting up eight runs on 14 hits in 12.2 innings. With Hochevar on the mound, the Royals are just 2-4 against the Twins.

Minnesota is headed for the postseason and they are really setting up their lineup and rotation for the playoffs. Baker isn’t going to go much more than five innings tonight, but when he starts they are on streaks of 8-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 16-5 as a road favorite, plus as a team they are 41-17 as a favorite and 17-7 against A.L. Central teams.

The Royals are on several slides, including 17-36 as an underdog, 9-20 in Hochevar’s last 29 starts, 3-11 when he pitches at home and 1-5 when he’s a home ‘dog.

The Twins are 36-17 in the last 53 series clashes and a stunning 37-18 in Kansas City. The Twins are comfortable there and I’m going to play them to take this one. Play Minnesota.

3♦ MINNESOTA

Karl Garrett

Minnesota (-110) at KANSAS CITY By , Featured Handicapper

Free play for Wednesday night is to back the Twins to avoid the sweep against the Royals.

Minnesota's current 5 game losing streak has dropped them behind both Tampa Bay and New York for the best overall record in the junior circut, so it is vital Minny leaves Kansas City with the win tonight.

No worries in that department, as Minnesota is 8-3 the last 11 times Scott Baker has started against the Royals.

Minnesota is also 12-5 overall in the season series against the Royals, and the G-Man doesn't think Luke Hochevar will be the pitcher to deliver a Kansas City sweep this evening at Kauffman Stadium.

Go with the Twins to avoid the sweep.

5♦ MINNESOTA

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Minnesota Twins +101

After 5 straight losses, including an embarrassing 10-1 loss last night, I think the Twins will really go after this one. They still have a shot at home field throughout the AL playoffs. Plus, Minnesota hasn't endured a 3-game sweep at Kauffman Stadium in 16 years, and I don't expect that to change with Baker on the mound. The Twins are 8-1 in Baker's last 9 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 road starts and 8-3 in his last 11 starts vs. Royals. Meanwhile, the Royals are just 9-20 in Hochevar's last 29 starts and 3-11 in his last 14 home starts. We'll take the Twins at a great price today as they end their skid and start to build some momentum for the playoffs.

Black Widow

1* on Diamondbacks/Giants UNDER 7

This total has been set at least a full run too high tonight as the Diamondbacks face the Giants in San Francisco. This is a battle of Aces between Ian Kennedy (9-9, 3.76 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (15-10, 3.51 ERA). There are few starts out there who can match the numbers these two have put up recently. Lincecum was dominant in Colorado on Friday, allowing one run and two hits with nine strikeouts in eight innings of a 2-1 victory. The right-hander, who leads the NL with 220 strikeouts, improved to 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA in five outings this month. Lincecum is 6-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 13 career starts against the Diamondbacks. Kennedy has posted a 0.75 ERA in 4 starts this month, and he's 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last nine starts. Take the UNDER 7 runs here.