Jack Jones
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins should not be an underdog to the Kansas City Royals Wednesday. Sure, they've opened this series by losing the first two games, but that only means they'll be highly motivated tonight to win Game 3 and avoid the sweep. There's no question players in this clubhouse want home-field advantage in the American League, and the only way to get it would be to finish strong. I expect them to put an end to their recent 5-game skid tonight and to make a run at the Yankees and Rays for the top spot in the AL.
Scott Baker is pitching like the Ace of this staff of late, going 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. Luke Hochevar is just 6-6 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.412 WHIP this season for Kansas City, and he's getting way too much respect tonight. Hochevar is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA in 6 career starts vs. Minnesota, while Baker is 8-4 with a 3.44 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in 14 career starts vs. Kansas City. Minnesota is 36-17 against the Royals over the last 3 seasons, which includes a 19-7 mark at Kauffman Stadium in K.C. The Twins are 8-1 in Baker's last 9 starts. Bet the Twins Wednesday.
Doug Upstone
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
While media reports are following the empty seats at Tampa Bay games, the Rays are willing to talk about it and still go out and win a division title. The Rays lead the Yankees by one in the loss column and are attempting to hunt down a series win over Baltimore. The Orioles have improved enough under manager Buck Showalter to no longer be the worst team in the American League and its bullpen has been spotless in this series, not permitting a run in five innings of work.
Nevertheless, road underdogs like the O’s with a money line of +150 or more, after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs, playing on Wednesday, are 37-117 the past 13 seasons.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -104
The White Sox have rebounded from a lengthy losing streak to win 5 of their last 6, and I like them to keep rolling against a Red Sox club they have defeated in 5 of the last 6 meetings. I expect Beckett, who is carrying an ERA of 6.08 on the road this season, to struggle against a lineup that is hitting .271 at home this year. Plus, the White Sox have won 3 of Garcia's last 4 starts, and 8 of his 12 home starts this season. Take Chicago.
Info Plays
3* on Chicago Cubs +142
Reasons the Cubs win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home teams (SAN DIEGO) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season. This is a 36-15 ML System hitting 70.6% since 1997. This system is 6-2 this season.
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2.) Chicago is 16-5 in their last 21 road games. Bet the Cubs on the road.
Sean Murphy
Diamondbacks @ Giants
PICK: Giants
It appears that the Giants have saved their best for last, winning six of their last eight games to move two full games ahead of the Padres for first place in the N.L. West.
Even last night, when the Giants offense wasn't exactly lighting it up, their pitching came through in a 4-2 victory. Now they send a red hot Tim Lincecum to the hill against a D'Backs team that simply can't get out of its own way on the road.
Arizona is 24-52 away from Chase Field this season, including 2-5 here at AT&T Park. The D'Backs had won five of their last six games entering last night's contest, but keep in mind, all five of those victories came at home.
Ian Kennedy gets the call for the D'Backs on Wednesday. He's having a fine season considering he pitches for one of the worst teams in the league, but we've seen him labor a little lately. Note that he's now thrown 189 innings this season - his previous career high for innings pitched in a season was 39 2/3.
Kennedy lasted only four innings in his last start, needing 84 pitches in an eventual 10-9 D'Backs victory. After working at least seven innings in four of five starts, he's now lasted six innings or less in three consecutive outings.
Despite holding the current Giants roster to a .213 batting average and .277 slugging percentage, Kennedy owns only one victory in four starts against them this season. I won't be surprised if he finds himself a hard luck loser again tonight.
Tim Lincecum is simply pitching on another level right now. After struggling through a miserable month of August, he's turned it on in September, going 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA and a .194 opponents batting average while recording a ridiculous 41:4 strikeout to walk ratio in 34 2/3 innings of work.
Lincecum turned in one of his best outings of the season against the D'Backs on September 7th, striking out 11 while allowing just five hits and three earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 6-3 Giants victory. Those three earned runs allowed are slightly misleading, as he was cruising until the seventh inning.
The current D'Backs roster is hitting just .203 and slugging .360 in 236 career at-bats against Lincecum. Justin Upton is the only Arizona hitter with considerable success against him, but he remains sidelined.
We saw a playoff-type atmosphere at AT&T Park last night, and the Giants pulled away late for another crucial late season win. Behind another strong performance from Lincecum, look for them to get it done again on Wednesday. Take San Francisco.