Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 4

Jimmy Boyd

Texas Rangers -119

With Yu Darvish getting the start it is surprising to see the Rangers listed as such small favorites. Darvish has a 2.62 ERA on the road this season with a 5-2 record in 11 starts. Run support should not be an issue for Darvish in this game since the Rangers are batting .271 against division opponents and scoring 5.6 runs per game.

Oakland's offense has been inconsistent all season. In home games they have a .237 batting average and are scoring 4.1 runs per game. Jarrod Parker has certainly put up some respectable numbers for the A's, but he has only earned a 5-3 record in 15 home starts. He has a 3.93 ERA at home and without run support from his teammates facing Yu Darvish Oakland it is smart to fade the A's in this game.

Matt Fargo

St. Louis Cardinals +110

This has turned into a big game for the Cardinals. They have dropped the first two games of this series and are now just 1-5 over their last six games as the offense has managed a grand total of three runs in those five losses. St. Louis now trails the Pirates by two games in the National League Central and it is just a game and a half in front of the Reds. The Cardinals are second in the National League in run differential so this offensive slide is no doubt a surprise but this is a good opportunity for them to get the bats going again. Shelby Miller takes the hill for St. Louis and while he has not been overly dominant, he rarely finds a way to keep his team out of a game. He allowed five runs against the Pirates last time out and that was a rarity as he had allowed three runs or fewer in each of his previous nine starts. Overall, Miller has a 3.12 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and while he has struggled more on the road, the Cardinals are 6-2 in his last eight starts as an underdog. Cincinnati has now won two straight games which came after a 2-5 skid and that is what has kept it back from being able to overtake the Cardinals. Cincinnati does in fact have a very solid home field advantage as it has won 10 of its last 14 games at Great American Ball Park and Bronson Arroyo has been great there all season as well. He is 9-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 16 starts with the Reds going 12-4 in those games. That would typically mean a strong look his way but the Cardinals have been a nemesis of late as he allowed seven runs in his last start against them last month and Cincinnati has lost each of his previous five starts against them. Additionally, the Reds are 5-12 in Arroyos last 17 starts against teams with a winning record.

Doug Upstone

New York Mets +136

Kameron Loe gets the call for Atlanta tonight and has an ERA of over 8 so far this season in 13 relief outings. Opposite Loe is Mets starter Dillon Gee, who has had an up and down season but has a very respectable 3.62 ERA. Play the underdog Mets tonight in Atlanta.

Steve Janus

Boston Red Sox -117

Rarely will you find this kind of value on the Red Sox at home, but that's the case tonight. When you look at the season numbers for tonight's two starters there's not a lot to like on either side. Detroit's Rick Porcello has a 4.50 ERA and 1.322 WHIP in 25 starts and Boston's Ryan Dempster is supporting a 4.75 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 26 starts.

The key in this one is that Red Sox are on a roll and playing at home. Boston is 8-2 over their last 10 and 4-1 over their last 5. The Red Sox are 22-6 at home when they come in having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. Even Dempster is a solid 28-11 in his last 39 starts when he's listed as a home favorite of -100 to -125.

The second key in this one is that last night's game was pitcher's duel. Detroit lost 1-2. The Tigers have been a great team to fade on the road following a game where they couldn't get any offense going. Detroit is just 1-7against the money line in road games after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less this season.

Nick Parsons

Los Angeles Angels -128

The Rays got off the schneid with a 7-1 win last night, snapping a five-game losing streak.

However, with a struggling hurler opposing one of the league's best, I look for Tampa Bay to once again take a step back into mediocrity tonight.

Jeremy Hellickson (10-8, 5.21 ERA)

Hellickson has been recalled to the bigs from Double-A Montgomery to make this start. He was demoted after going 0-5 with a 9.00 ERA.

Note that he's been particularly inept on the road this season going 5-6 with a 5.97 ERA.

Jered Weaver (9-7, 3.30 ERA)

Weaver went six scoreless frames in his team's 5-0 win over Milwaukee on Friday, allowing just three hits, three walks and striking out three for the victory.

Weaver has now won back-to-back starts.

And note that he's been "on his game" in front of the home town crowd all season, sporting a respectable 6-3, 2.59 ERA thus far.

The bottom line: The Angels won't be playing in the postseason, but they've been much better of late, yesterday's setback snapping a five-game win streak.

One other player you'll want to keep your eyes on is the home sides' Mike Trout who is 7 for 18 with four walks and three steals in this season series, LA having already won three of five.

Despite the playoff implications for the Rays in this contest, it's very hard to get over the fact that this is a pitching mismatch. I have no problem laying the mid-sized price on what I feel is the clearly superior starter in this matchup.

Justin Bay

Rays / Angels Over 7½

Jeremy Hellickson
- Away: 5.97 ERA, .295 OBA
- August: 9.15 ERA, .389 OBA
- Post All Star Break: 7.00 ERA, .340 OBA

Jered Weaver
- Home: 2.59 ERA, .236 OBA
- August: 4.31 ERA, .237 OBA
- Last Start: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, .136 OBA
- Post All Star Break: 2.93 ERA, .207 OBA
- Rays hitters vs. Weaver in his career: .322 BA

Jim Feist

Seattle Mariners +158

Seattle is not a bad road team, close to .500 for the season and on a nice road run of 6-2. Kansas City has never seen Seattle starter Taijuan Walker, who has been good since being called up. Walker made his major-league debut Friday, allowing just one unearned run on two hits and one walk while striking out two in five innings and picking up the win as the Mariners defeated the Astros, 7-1. Walker had a 10.2 K/9 ratio in the minors this season. The Royals are 6-13 in their last 19 vs. the American League West and 2-7 in their last 9 home games. And when these teams meet the Mariners are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, including 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas City.

Bruce Marshall

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

Panic time for the Cardinals? Maybe not yet, but there is certainly concern for skipper Mike Matheny as his lethargic Redbird offense has stalled, scoring two runs or fewer in five losses during the past six games, bating only .176 during that stretch while being outscored 32-10 and falling further behind the Pirates in the NL Central. Cincy has also taken the last three meetings by an 18-2 margin, and while starter Bronson Arroyo has not won in his three starts vs. the Cards this season, he seems to be catching them at the right time as well as at Great American Ballpark, where Arroyo is 9-3 with a 3.20 ERA this season. Not nearly as comfy with Cards starter Shelby Miller on the road (where his ERA is 4.43) as at home (where his ERA is 1.92).

Will Rogers

Seattle vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City

Two days ago, I won with the Royals, taking them on the run line as a "premium selection." Turns out I didn't even need the +1.5 as they beat Felix Hernandez & the Mariners, 3-1. Yesterday they won 4-3, a play I gave out here for free. I'll call for them to make it three in a row Wednesday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Different Directions - While the Mariners have lost 9 of 12, Kansas City has won 8 of their last 10. The Royals are desperately trying to stay in the Wild Card race. While the postseason is unlikely, there is no denying who the better team is at this point. All three of Seattle's wins over the last 12 games have come at the expense of Houston, the worst team in baseball.

2. KC Bullpen - I discussed this yesterday. A big reason why over the last 10 games opponents are averaging just 1.9 runs/game vs. Kansas City has been their bullpen. Royals relievers lead the American League with a 2.51 ERA (coming into yesterday) and have allowed just two earned runs during the last 11 games, a span of 29 innings that at the same time has seen them record 42 strikeouts.

3. X-Factor - Royals starter Erwin Santana is having a solid season with a 3.19 ERA in 27 starts. He is 12-7 in 29 career starts vs. Seattle with a 1.276 WHIP.

Jack Jones

New York Yankees -185

The New York Yankees (74-64) are making an improbable run at the postseason despite all of the injuries they have been through in 2013. They have won four of their last five to pull within 2.5 games of Tampa Bay for the final Wild Card spot in the American League.

Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox (56-81) have dropped five straight and now hold the second-worst record in the American League. After blowing a 4-1 lead in the 8th inning last night, this team is clearly deflated.

While C.C. Sabathia isn't having his best season, I'm still willing to lay this juice to back him and the red-hot Yankees tonight. That's because Sabathia has been dominant in the past against Chicago. The left-hander is 18-4 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in 32 career starts against the White Sox.

The White Sox are 12-40 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-9 in its last 10 after losing the first two games of a series. Chicago is 3-15 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters this season.

New York is 14-3 in its last 17 home games. The Yankees are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter. New York is 29-6 in Sabathia's last 35 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Yankees are 5-1 in Sabathia's last 6 starts vs. White Sox. Bet New York Wednesday.

Steve Janus

Boston Red Sox -117

Rarely will you find this kind of value on the Red Sox at home, but that's the case tonight. When you look at the season numbers for tonight's two starters there's not a lot to like on either side. Detroit's Rick Porcello has a 4.50 ERA and 1.322 WHIP in 25 starts and Boston's Ryan Dempster is supporting a 4.75 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 26 starts.

The key in this one is that Red Sox are on a roll and playing at home. Boston is 8-2 over their last 10 and 4-1 over their last 5. The Red Sox are 22-6 at home when they come in having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. Even Dempster is a solid 28-11 in his last 39 starts when he's listed as a home favorite of -100 to -125.

The second key in this one is that last night's game was pitcher's duel. Detroit lost 1-2. The Tigers have been a great team to fade on the road following a game where they couldn't get any offense going. Detroit is just 1-7against the money line in road games after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less this season.

Dave Price

Pittsburgh Pirates -148

I like Pittsburgh's chances of pulling off the sweep with Francisco Liriano on the mound. The southpaw has been sensational, going 15-6 with a 2.57 ERA. The Pirates are 10-2 in his last 12 starts versus teams that have a losing record and 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus division opponents. Milwaukee's Wily Peralta is just 8-14 with a 4.51 ERA in 28 starts. The Brewers are 0-4 in his last 4 starts, and he has a 6.46 ERA over his last 3. They are only 1-8 in his last 9 starts versus divisional foes. Milwaukee has lost its last 6 at Miller Park. Take Pittsburgh.

Joseph D'Amico

Pittsburgh Pirates -148

Pittsburgh can clinch their first winning season in 21 years with a win today. The Pirates took the first two games in this series to edge ahead of the Cardinals by 2 games in the NL Central. Andrew McCutchen is leading a Pitt lineup that has won 4 of their L5, averaging just south of 5 RPG on that span. Francisco Liriano gets the start here. The LH is 15-6 with a 2.57 ERA on the season, including a 2-0, 1.54 mark vs. Milwaukee. He faces a Brewers squad that has dropped 5 straight to sink the team to 20 games under .500 at 59-79. Milwaukee has lost 8 of the 10 meetings against Pittsburgh this year. Wily Peralta takes the bump today. The RH is 8-14 with a 4.51 record this year and hasn't won a home game since July 9th. Milwaukee is 0-6 their L6 games played at home, 8-21 their L29 games played vs. LH starters, and 0-4 in Peralta's L4 starts. Pittsburgh is 4-1 their L5 games played vs. the NL Central, 45-22 their L67 games played vs. teams with a losing record, and 10-3 in Liriano's L13 starts. Take the Pirates.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +134 over ATLANTA

The Braves keep on winning but it’s not because of their offense. Atlanta has scored just 50 runs over its past 15 games. If you take away the 13 runs they put up in one game against Dice-K, that number drops to 37 runs in 14 games, which would the major’s worst mark over that 14-game stretch. The Braves have scored three runs or fewer in 11 of those past 14 games and many of them came against some very average starters. The Braves have been winning because of some outstanding starting pitching but they do not have that luxury today. Atlanta is Kameron Loe’s third team this season. He’s a 31-year-old career swingman that has appeared in 313 MLB games and has started just 47. This year he pitched for Seattle and the Cubbies before being shipped to the Braves and he’s appeared in just 13 games, all as a reliever. In 17.2 innings, Loe has been tagged for 28 hits (.467 oppBA) has walked seven and has posted a 1.98 WHIP. It’s a small sample size and Loe’s xERA was under 4 each of the three previous seasons so there's at least a possibility that he could give Atlanta some good innings. However, that possibility is not enough to warrant being this price against the Dillon Gee and the Mets. Atlanta is on cruise control, this is a day game after a night game and that usually means many veteran Braves’ hitters will get a day off here.

The numbers told us Dillon Gee was hideous in April and May and the Mets right-hander found himself on the waiver wire in many fantasy leagues but Gee has staged a 180-degree turnaround from June 1 on. The two-run drop in ERA from first to second half has a lot to do with things outside his control - hit% and strand%. Not only have fewer balls in play been dropping for hits, but fewer fly balls have been leaving the park. Gee possesses outstanding control, a decent strikeout rate, a groundball bias profile and a 2.31 ERA over his last five starts. This is a decent spot for he and the Mets to get out of town with one win in this series. Kameron Loe is grossly overpriced here because he throws for the Braves but Atlanta may not care much about this game with a seven-game trip on deck after this one.

Chicago (5 inns) +167 over N.Y. YANKEES

After watching the White Sox blow a 4-1 lead in the eighth last night, we can’t feel comfortable playing them for the full game but we sure can feel comfortable taking back a price like this in the first five frames. For one, the Yankees have the Red Sox coming in tomorrow night for a season defining four-game set and that makes this one a look-ahead game. Additionally C.C. Sabathia is running on fumes. After years of consistent production, Sabathia has seen his ERA bloat above 4.00 for the first time since 2005 and close to 5.00 (4.91) over 183 innings. Sabathia’s skills have shown a serious deterioration over the past three months, which is highlighted by an unsightly 28% line-drive rate over that span. Another sign of trouble is that Sabathia walked just 38 batters in his first 145 frames this season but has walked 15 over his past 31 innings. C.C. Sabathia is a pitcher in trouble.

Erik Johnson has put up exceptional numbers in just his second full season and has been awarded a September call-up. He figures to be a significant competitor for a 2014 rotation spot and gets the call today in the Bronx against the Yankees. How’s that for one’s first major-league start? Johnson has only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his 24 starts this season coupled with a 131/40 K/BB ratio over 142 IP. He is a physical pitcher (6'3, 235) with a power build and aggressive demeanor and approach on the mound. Johnson has shown improvement in both his repertoire and pitch sequencing this year, and attacks hitters with a heavy 90-96 mph fastball, solid slider, curveball, and an improving change-up. He pounds the lower half of the zone inducing lots of groundballs, and his slider has become a reliable swing-and-miss out pitch. Johnson does not project as a #1 or #2 starter, but a very dependable #3 or #4 who can provide lots of innings with a good number of strikeouts and a solid ERA. Over 236.1 innings at the minor league level, Johnson posted a 2.21 ERA and averaged 8.3 K’s per 9 innings to go along with a stellar 1.08 WHIP. At Charlotte (AAA), Johnson started 10 games and went 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and a .209 oppBA in 57.1 frames. He also allowed just one jack in those 57.1 innings. Backing a rookie always comes with risk but this rookie appears to have great poise and confidence and it sure doesn’t hurt that they Yankees have never seen him and have bigger fish to fry beginning tomorrow. Price and situation dictates this one.

San Francisco +101 over SAN DIEGO

Regardless of outcome, we’re absolutely going with the best of it here by backing Tim Lincecum and the Giants at a price against Eric Stults and the Padres. This one is actually a pitching mismatch and it’s not in the Padres favor. At the age of 32 last year, Stults went 8-3 with a 2.91 in 99 innings for the White Sox and Padres. A late bloomer? Not exactly says his 4.42 MLB xERA. Stults’ command was marginal and he benefited from favorable hit and strand percentages. This year is much of the same, only his xERA of 5.10 over his last 20 starts is even worse than his career xERA. Stults’ 3.81 ERA is all smoke and mirrors. His WHIP on the year is an acceptable 1.26 but over his last 20 starts it’s at an unacceptable 1.47 clip. Stults’ groundball rate isn’t even decent at just 37%. Eric Stults is like Barry Zito, Bartolo Colon and a few others that can get lucky from time to time and pick up some wins. Stults’ is just 8-12 this year with just 14 of his 28 starts being of the pure quality variety. The fact that he’s favored here over Lincecum is like Barry Zito being favored over Clayton Kershaw. Ok, well, maybe that’s a stretch but you get the picture.

Tim Lincecum took us back a few years with his dominating skill set in July: 12.4 K’s per 9 IP, 47% groundball rate and dominating start after dominating start. Only the skills of Matt Harvey were better than Lincecum’s in July. Lincecum's 4.50 ERA would have been a lot lower had he not been victimized by an extremely high 23% hr/f. We can no longer count on consistency from him because his last 10 months say so but let us say this. Lincecum is a free agent at the end of the year and this last month could go a long way in determining his market value. This last month is as important to Lincecum as pitching in the World Series so you can expect him to bring it all here. If this one loses, so be it but we’re suggesting you do not miss this one because it has a much greater chance of winning than it does of losing.

Baltimore +114 over CLEVELAND

Be careful about betting Zach McAllister against the Orioles. There's a pretty wide gap between his surface ERA (3.81) and xERA (4.51) due to a low 6% hr/f on the season. Given McAllister's fly-ball tendencies (42% FB%), the long balls could be flying this time around against a Baltimore team leading baseball in HR’s. Earlier in the year, we mentioned that there could be something interesting about McAllister and an upside projection of a 3.50 ERA was noted. Even after missing six weeks with a finger sprain, McAllister has come close to that mark but hasn’t made many major gains at all. McAllister’s strikeout rate climb is over and outside of 2011, his control has been stagnant. His xERA shows he’s not really made any improvements; it's the high strand% and low hr/f that are deflating his 3.81 ERA. McAllister’s 41%/12% dominant start/disaster start split with a bunch of very “blah” performances in between reveal just how volatile and untrustworthy he really is.

Zach Britton is also risky. He’s made just six starts this year for the O’s and went 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA over 35 innings. Last year, Britton went 5-3 with a 5.07 ERA in 60 IP at Baltimore. Remnants of his 2011 shoulder injury shelved him until July last year and then he pitched brilliantly or dreadfully from start to start. This sinkerballer induces tons of groundballs, strikes out some and walks too many but has he ever been pain free? Health will define his value and right now he says he feels great. In any event, the big difference in this game is that the Orioles are a pooch and their offense is scoring a lot more runs than the Indians’ offense. Perhaps, just perhaps, Britton comes up with one of his gems. Overlay.