Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 7,2011

Hollywood Sports

Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have won 10 of their 11 home games with Chris Carpenter pitching as a small favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. The veteran right-hander is in a mini-slump having allowed six earned runs in each of his last two starts. But St. Louis has won 5 of their last 6 games when Carpenter was facing a team with a winning record. The veteran right-hander has been mostly reliable at home this season where he owns a 3.44 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .268 opponent's batting average as compared to his 4.44 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .283 opponent's batting average when on the road. He should outmatch Zack Greinke. While the Brewers' right-hander sports a strong 2.96 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .223 opponent's batting average when at home, he sees these numbers skyrocket to a 5.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .265 opponent's batting average when on the road this season. That is not a good sign for a Milwaukee team that has now lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Take St. Louis with the money line while listing both starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Chris Carpenter.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Might as well continue to ride the Phillies as they go for the sweep Wednesday night of Atlanta. As predicted right here, Philly won a 14th straight start made by Vance Worley last night and today should get the win for Roy Oswalt, who has a lifetime 120-48 TSR in the second half of the season. Braves starter Brandon Beachy has a career 0-5 TSR vs. Philadelphia, including 0-3 this season. The Phillies are 81-38 as a favorite this season.

Play on: Philadelphia

Matt Fargo

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Francisco Giants

After losing two of three at home against Arizona, the Giants have rebounded to win the first two games of this series in San Diego to move to six games back of the Diamondbacks. Matt Cain gets the call Wednesday and he has been on a roll with six straight quality starts including two on the road. His numbers at home and on the road are nearly identical and speaking of the road, he has tossed six straight quality outings going back to mid-June to make it 11 of 14 overall. His last two starts against the Padres this season have been quality outings as well as four of his last five at Petco Park. Aaron Harang suffered a rare loss last time out as it was his second in two starts after not losing a game since July 30th. He pitched good enough to win both but the anemic Padres offense did nothing to help as they scored a total of one run in both games. He has put together three straight quality performances after a run of six straight non-quality games. He has a 3.46 ERA at home covering 14 starts but San Diego is only 7-7 in those games as run support has been hit or miss Speaking of run support, his offense has scored only five runs in two starts against the Giants this season. 3* San Francisco Giants

Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Giants fit a nice system here tonight that plays on road favorites with a total of 8 or less off a road favored win by 2 or more runs with a total that was 8 or less, if they scored 5+ runs and had 10+ hits and 5+ men left on base, vs an opponent off a home dog loss of 2 or more scored 4 or less runs with 5+ men left on base and no more than 1 error. This long winded system has cashed 16 of 19 times. The Giants have won 15 of 21 on Wednesday their best day of the week. The Padres have lost 4 of 5 as a home dog in this range and are hitting just .217 the past week. They have lost 17 of 24 in the second half vs Winning teams. The Giants have won 6 of 8 here this season and have M. Cain on the mound. Cain has a superb 2.81 road era which trumps the 3.79 home era of Pare starter A. Harang. Look for the Giants to get the win.

Nick Parsons

Brewers @ Cardinals
PICK: Under

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

Coming into Tuesday the Brewers are 85-57; 50-19 at home and 35-38 on the road.

Milwaukee has seen the total go "under" the number in 68 of 136 this year (with six "pushes").

Zack Greinke (14-5, 4.00 ERA) heads to the hill for the visitors; Greinke got his 14th win last Friday vs. the Astros, giving up two runs on nine hits over six innings in the 8-2 victory.

The right-hander has given up two runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts.

The last time he faced the Red Birds he gave up two runs over six innings back on August 1st.

In the other dugout: Coming into Tuesday the Cardinals are 74-67; 36-34 at home and 38-33 on the road.

St. Louis has seen the total go "under" the number in 60 of 136 (with five "pushes").

Chris Carpenter (8-9, 3.92 ERA) toes the rubber for the home side; Carpenter is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs on eight hits over six frames of work last Friday to the Reds; he was lucky to escape with the no-decision.

Carpenter looks to return to form here in this crucial match-up; he's 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA vs. the Brewers this year.

Bottom line: Carpenter though is 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

With these two starters on the hill, why not place a wager on the "under" in this contest?

David Chan

Braves @ Phillies
PICK: Under

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak below the posted number.

Brandon Beachy (7-2, 3.37 ERA) gets the start for the Braves.

Beachy gave up three runs off four hits and issued three walks in six frames in his team's 8-6 setback to the Dodgers on Friday.

Beachy is 4-0 with a 2.98 ERA over his last seven outings.

Beachy also received a no-decision the last time he faced Philadelphia, giving up two runs over six frames back on July 8th.

He'll be opposed by Roy Oswalt (7-8, 3.80 ERA) who gave up three runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 frames in his team's 5-3 victory over the Marlins on Friday.

Oswalt has been solid since being re-activated from the DL, winning three of four and posting a 2.99 ERA in that span.

He won his lone start vs. the Braves this year, giving up just a single run over six frames of work back on April 9th.

A couple of quality starters going head to head on Wednesday night; you may want to consider a wager on the "under" in this one!

Jim Feist

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies

Old Kevin Millwood has his old sinker back, with a 2-1 record and a 3.34 ERA since being called up. Keeping the ball down helps in a big park like this, as well. He's allowed 3 runs or less in 4 of his 5 starts and lifetime is 6-1 with a 1.93 ERA against Arizona. Soft throwing Joe Saunders comes to Coors Field and the Diamondbacks are 6-15 in Saunders' last 21 road starts. He faces a Colorado team that is 8th in runs scored and plays its best ball at home. Play the Rockies.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

San Francisco -138 over SAN DIEGO: So let me get this straight. The worst scoring team in the league has come into one of the hardest places to score an has put up 13 runs in the first 2 games of the series? Well for some reason this is a park the Giants like to play in. In their last 7 trips here this year they are 6-1 vs the Padres and have put up 5.71 rpg in those games, which is up 2.32 rpg from their overall season average. Today they face Aaron Harang and he has had a nice year, but he is just 4-4 in his last 8 team starts with a 5.05 ERA. The Padres are a team that is struggling right now as they come in at 1-9 in their last 10 games and have averaged just 2.7 rpg over that stretch. This is also a team that struggles to score in their own park as they have hit just.219 and have scored 3.21 rpg at Petco this year. Matt Cain gets the Ball for the Giants and he is 2-0 with a 2.02 ERA in his last 4 starts, plus on the road he is 5-4 with a solid 2.81 ERA. I feel that the Giants are getting desperate and that has enabled their offense to pick it up a bit and playing a san Diego team that can't by a win right now aid them in their quest for the s game sweep here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Giants are 13-0 since May of 2010 when their starter went at least 8+ innings in his last start and they won by at least 3 runs.

3 UNIT PLAY

Oakland/ Seattle Over 8.5: I'm gonna go back to the well in this one and take another Over play in an Oakland game. The Over is 12-3-1 in the A's last 16 vs a team with a losing record and 15-4-2 in their last 21 home games with a total set at 7 to 8.5. Guillermo Moscoso has an ERA of 5.05 in his last 9 starts, with the Over going 8-1 in those starts. He also has a 4.38 ERA in his day starts. Guillermo pitches well at home with a 2.62 ERA, but he will be facing a very hot KC offense today. The Royals come in hitting over .310 and putting up 6 rpg in their last 11 games, plus in 5 games played here this year they have averaged 6 rpg. The A's offense struggled a bit on their recent road trip, but since coming home they have averaged 5.4 rpg in their last 5. The A's have also given Moscoso 4.89 rpg worth of support at home. The A's offense will be facing Bruce Chen today and he comes in with a 4.30 Era on the road and his road starts have averaged 8.56 rpg, while his day starts have averaged 8.75 rpg. Last year Bruce faced the A's twice and he had a 5.90 ERA, with an average of 10 rpg being scored in the two starts. There is more than enough offense in this game to get at least 9 runs.

2 UNIT PLAY

Texas/ Tampa Bay over 7.5: In the Rangers last 16 games when they are a dog the Over is 9-5-2 and there has been an average of 10.4 rpg being scored. The Rangers offense is hot once again as they come in hitting .282 and scoring 6 rpg in their last 10 games, while the Rays offense checks in at 4.2 rpg in their last 10. David Price has been solid of late, but he does have a 3.50 Era at home this year, plus he has a 4.34 ERA in his last 3 starts vs Texas. Derek Holland is off a fine performance vs Boston, but his road ERA is 3.49 and in 4 career starts vs the Rays he has a 7.29 ERA. I see both offenses having a good showing and putting at least 9 runs on the board in this one.

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Dodgers +114

Los Angeles comes in having won 12 of their last 15 overall, including a 7-3 win last night to even the series against the Nationals. Washington is just 4-11 over their L15 games and have really struggled offensively. In their last 15 games they have only scored 4 or more runs five times. I don't expect an offensive explosion against the Dodgers Dana Eveland.

Eveland is coming off an impressive first start late in the year. He allowed just one run on six hits over eight innings in a 6-4 Dodgers win. Eveland is a left-handed starter, which makes things even harder on the National offense, as they average just 3.3 runs a game against lefties this season.

Even if Eveland has a bit of a rough start, there is a very good chance the Dodgers offense will be able to score enough to bring home the win. Washington will start Chien-Ming Wang, who is 2-3 with a 4.19 ERA in seven starts this season. Wang has struggled at home with a 5.57 ERA and 1.476 WHIP. Wang has only pitched passed the sixth inning once this season. The Nationals bullpen has pitched 7 and 2/3 over the last two games, which should lead to more scoring opportunities for the Dodgers late.

Los Angeles is 20-7 in their last 27 vs. a team with a losing record, 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road underdog, and 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. BET THE DODGERS!

Jack Jones

Atlanta Braves +122

Off back-to-back losses, I like the Atlanta Braves to bounce back in a big way Wednesday against the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies. Atlanta has not lost three straight games since 7/31-8/2, so this has been a very resilient bunch.

The Braves have the edge on the mound tonight with Brandon Beachy over Roy Oswalt. Beachy is 7-2 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.155 WHIP in 21 starts this season, striking out a whopping 135 batters in 120 1/3 innings.

Oswalt has been the weak link on Philly's staff in 2011. The veteran righty is 7-8 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 19 starts, striking out only 69 batters in 104 1/3 innings. He just hasn't been quite right all season as he deals with various injuries. Oswalt is 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in 12 career starts against Atlanta.

Atlanta is 19-5 after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Braves are a very profitable 15-8 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Braves are a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The Phillies are 0-6 in Oswalt's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Atlanta Wednesday.

Bryan Power

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Detroit Tigers

This one just looks "so easy" doesn't it? The Tigers have taken the first two games of what was a critical three game set w/ Cleveland, essentially ending the Indians season. Today will be the final nail in the coffin with Justin Verlander going for the Tigers, who have won five straight overall and 7 of their last 8. This line is getting bet up like crazy as I type this, so jump on board QUICKLY! Verlander has won each of his last nine starts as he continues to make a case for not only the AL Cy Young, but the AL MVP! The Tigers are a perfect 11-0 this season when Verlander starts on the road and is a favorite of at least -125. As a favorite of -150 more, Verlander is virtually "unbeatable" w/ a 27-3 team start record L2 seasons. Verlander also has 13-1 TSR vs. division opponents this season. In day games, he's been great with a 1.61 ERA in eight starts. Cleveland is just 15-25 in day games this year. The Tigers offense has also been on a roll of late as they have scored 49 total runs the last five games, including 10 last night. The team is 14-5 after scoring 10 or more runs its last game. The surging offense coupled with the amazing Verlander is way too much for the slumping Indians to handle.

SPORTS WAGERS

Atlanta +128 over PHILADELPHIA

Over the last five starts or the whole month of August, no pitcher in the majors flashed better skills than Brandon Beachy. Over his last five starts, covering 30 innings, Beachy whiffed 40 batters and walked seven. He posted an ERA of 3.00 (2.41 xERA), and a WHIP of 1.00. A slightly unfavorable 33% hit rate and 67% strand rate in August kept his ERA nearly one ER higher than his 2.54 xERA Overall, the Braves have won five of his past seven starts and on the year, Beachy has a BAA of .233. This guy is as worthy as any pitcher in the league of taking back a tag, even against the Phillies. Then there’s Roy Oswalt. Oswalt’s numbers are ok but he’s a fraction of the pitcher he once was. He has a below average WHIP of 1.41. His strikeout rate is way down from previous years and that, too, is below average with 69 k’s in 104 frames. Also note that Oswalt’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his past five starts of 35%/38%/38% is rather disturbing, as those percentages are not in Oswalt’s favor. Come playoff time, don’t expect to see Oswalt on the hill, as this guy is running on fumes. Play: Atlanta +128 (Risking 2 units).

Kansas City +130 over OAKLAND

3:30 PM EST. Pay no attention to Guillermo Moscoso’s surface stats (3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 102 IP). You simply cannot hide behind good surface stats for an extended period of time with the kind of stuff that Moscoso possesses. Moscoso isn’t even average. He’s a complete stiff that is going to go on a Barry Zito-like run at some point and we’re not going to miss it when he’s favored. Moscoso is a ticking time bomb, one who has been hit hard time after time after time but the numbers don’t show it because the balls are hit right at people. His awful strikeout rate, lousy command, 56% fly-ball%, and 5.16 xERA are all on the wrong side of acceptable. His pure luck is going to run out soon. We’re not even going to discuss Chen because it doesn’t matter. This one is all about taking back some weight against Moscoso, as a good hitting team like the Royals should do some real damage against him. Play: Kansas City +130 (Risking 2 units).

Houston +130 over PITTSBURGH

The Pirates are a bad favorite to begin with and you can times that by 10 with a guy like Brian Burres pitching. Buress has been in the minors all year and recently replaced Jeff Karstens (on DL) in the Pirates rotation. He started against the Cubs last Friday and gave up one run in five frames. That’s very nice because had he been whacked, we would not be offered this price. Trust us; Burres will get whacked hard in more starts than not. So, before pulling the trigger on Pittsburgh, consider Burres' lackluster MLB career to this point, as well as his 4.66 ERA (6.75 xERA), 1.43 WHIP and borderline command at Triple-A Indianapolis this year. Last year Burres went 4-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 79 IP for the Bucs. Burres is here to accomplish one thing and one thing only and that’s to save some innings on some of the Pirates young arms. There's really nothing here worth analyzing, except perhaps why he still keeps getting work. This is a ridiculous line on a game that at the very least should be a pick-em. Play: Houston +130 (Risking 2 units).

Milwaukee +115 over ST. LOUIS

Chris Carpenter's numbers against the Brewers this season: 1-2, 5.68 ERA, 1.53 WHIP; Zack Greinke's against the Cards: 2-0, 3.46, 1.15. Is there anything more to say? When you can take back a tag on Grienke and the Brewers you do so and that’s all there is to it, especially against anyone not named Halladay, Hamels, or Lee. Play: Milwaukee +115 (Risking 2 units).

Doug Upstone

Tampa Bay Rays

David Price is the scheduled pitcher for Tampa Bay on Wednesday and he places his team in a strong position for a victory. Play On favorites with a money line of -150 or more, hitting .265 or less, against an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or lower, with a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start. (138-38 L13Y)

Lenny Del Genio

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

This lefty vs. lefty pitching matchup favors the already favored Rays, who are 61-39 L100 games vs. a southpaw starter and have revenge for an 8-0 loss to the Rangers last night. Tampa Bay is 79-29 as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 price range and will have David Price going this afternoon, looking to improve on a 2.05 ERA L3 starts. Take Tampa Bay.