David Banks
Brewers / Cardinals Over
The final match-up of the regular season between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals is set to go from Busch Stadium Wednesday night with Zach Greinke squaring off against Chris Carpenter; first pitch is scheduled for 8:15 ET.
After going into Busch and taking Labor Day’s series opener, the Brewers opened up what looks to be an insurmountable lead in the NL Central over the Redbirds; that number currently sits at 10.5-games and their elimination number to win the division now sits at 11. Manager Ron Roenicke’s club is now considered to be one of the dark horse contenders to win the World Series and offers up some solid value with a +675 return. Milwaukee has been a fabulous investment all season long at home by winning 50 of its 69 games played to date, but now, it’s also caught fire on the road winning 19 of its L/26 games away from Miller Park.
By dropping two of three to the underachieving Reds over the weekend and then dropping this series’ opener, you can all but put a fork in the overcooked Cardinals. Manager Tony LaRussa’s outfit was up against it from the beginning after staff ace Adam Wainwright was put on the shelf for Tommy John surgery before ever throwing a pitch in the 2011 season. While the offense has held up its end of the bargain by getting an optimal effort from free agent Lance Berkman, the pitching staff has hovered in the middle of the pack in all major pitching categories. The Redbirds have cost their betting backers a whopping $1256 at home heading into Game 2 of this series on Tuesday night.
Milwaukee holds a 9-7 season series advantage, but it would be even more dominant if St. Louis hadn’t gone into Milwaukee last week and shockingly swept the series. It looks to be payback time now as hot as the Brew Crew has been as visitors of late. Milwaukee’s won six of its L/7 series finales and stands an impressive 7-1 in Greinke’s L/8 outings against division opponents. The Cardinals have dropped each of Carpenter’s L/4 starts, but are also a moneymaking 5-1 in his L/6 trips to the bump versus +.500 opposition.
Larry Ness
Saint Louis Cardinals -115
The Cards beat the Brewers last night 4-2 and now have a chance to take the rubber game of this series Wednesday. St Louis has won FOUR of five recent meetings with Milwaukee (including a three-game sweep last week in Miller Park) but the Cards remain a long shot (at best) of catching the Brewers, who lead the NL Central by 9 1/2 games (Milwaukee has 19 game left and St Louis, 20). The pitching matchup tonight is Zach Greinke vs. Chris Carpenter. Greinke is 10-0 with a 2.96 ERA at home in 12 starts (Brewers are 12-0!) but just 4-5 with a 5.31 ERA in 11 road starts (team is 5-6). Those numbers should give St Louis hope here, although Carpenter just hasn't had a typical season. Coming off 17-4 and 16-9 seasons, Carpenter is just 8-9 with a 3.92 ERA in 2011 and the Cards are 12-17 in his starts, leaving him with a minus-$1,393 money line mark, the worst of any starter in MLB! That being said, Carpenter's most recent start vs the Brewer came on August 11 when he allowed two ERs in eight innings of a 5-2 win at Busch Stadium. Carpenter's been the team's 'stopper' since joining the Cards in 2004 and I expect him to come up big here. Greinke's road woes continue and the Cards get the win.
MLB Predictions
Giants / Padres Over 6
On the mound for the Giants is Matt Cain, as they look to complete a three game sweep of the Padres in San Diego. Cain is 11-9 on the season with a 2.85 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .219 opponents batting average. He has struggled in his career against the Padres going 5-10 with a 3.52 ERA in his 26 lifetime starts against them. Aaron Harang is on the mound for the Padres, and is 12-5 on the season with a 3.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .276 opponents batting average. He is 6-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 15 career starts against the Giants. Everything points to the over here today. The OVER is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 overall, 6-0 in their last six with a total set at 6.5 or lower, and 5-1 in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record. The OVER is also 16-5 in their last 21 vs National League West opponents, and 5-2 in their last 7 vs a right-handed starter. The OVER is 4-0 in Cain's last 4 starts overall, 6-0 in his last 6 vs National League West opponents, and 4-1 in his last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. The OVER is 7-0 in the Padres last 7 games as a home underdog, 11-1 in their last 12 home games vs a team with a winning record, and 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games overall. Take note the OVER is 33-15-3 in the Padres last 51 overall, and 17-5 in their last 22 home games with a total set at 6.5 or lower. The OVER is 8-2 in Harang's last 10 starts overall, 6-1 in his last 7 home stats, and 8-0 in his last 8 starts with 4 days rest. Note the OVER is also 5-2 in his last 7 starts with a total set at 6.5 or lower. These two teams seem to rarely play the UNDER when they meet. The OVER is 7-1 in their last 8 meetings and 7-0 in their last 7 meetings in San Diego. The OVER has hit 11 of 14 times when these two teams have met this season. Also note that the OVER is 5-0 in Cain's last 5 starts vs the Padres. With the rosters expanded the Giants have added some much needed bats to their lineup, which should give them a boost offensively. With a such a low total and two teams that have been playing the OVER a lot lately, especially when facing each other this season, I think we have some nice value on the OVER at just -115.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -128
The Twins are pure fade material right now as they have more or less packed it in. They are just 16-36 in their last 52 overall and 6-22 in their last 28 home games. The White Sox, meanwhile, are 14-6 in their last 20 road games, and they have especially been dangerous in the road chalk. The Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 9-0 in their last 9 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Chicago is 8-1 in Danks' last 9 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins, meanwhile, are 0-4 in Pavano's last 4 home starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a home underdog. The White Sox are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in this series and 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. Take the South Siders.
Black Widow
1* on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+109)
The Los Angeles Angels are in a battle with the Texas Rangers for first place in the AL West division. They know they cannot afford to lose to the lowly Seattle Mariners after a bad loss to them last night, and we see them bouncing back strong here Wednesday. They'll get to face Charlie Furbush, who is 2-6 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.634 WHIP as a starter this season. Furbush is 0-4 with an 11.30 ERA and 2.650 WHIP in four road starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 38 base runners in 14 1/3 innings. The Angels will certainly be licking their chops at the opportunity to face him tonight. Jerome Williams has pitched very well in two starts for L.A., going 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.071 WHIP. Furbush is 0-2 with a 5.90 ERA in two starts against the Angels in 2011. The Angels are 16-4 (+14.2 Units) against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. They are winning in this spot 5.4 to 2.6 on average. Take the Angels on the Run Line.
David Malinsky
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
It was a “Long Day’s Journey Into Morning” for these two last night, not only starting with a lengthy rain delay, but also having the game itself run out to 4:03, finishing around 2:20 AM Eastern. As such it is a limited Yankee lineup being sent out today, with Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano getting the afternoon off, and that makes this a major overlay.
Zach Britton brings a 9-9/4.22 to the table, which is rather amazing considering those two July outings at Fenway and from this mound in which he was shelled for 13 runs over just one IP. Take that cycle away, and he goes to 9-7/3.33, and this line looks a whole lot different. Britton has re-gained his confidence off of those debacles, and in working to a 3-0/1.50 over his last three starts he shut the Yankees out over seven IP in a rematch, and also won at Tampa Bay.
Meanwhile A. J. Burnett simply is who he is, that 9-11/5.25 a proper reflection of his inconsistencies. His lack of command makes him an unlikely candidate to work deeply into this one (he has gone beyond the 6th inning one time since the 4th of July), and note that even if the Yankees do have a late lead we are not likely to see Mariano Rivera, off of back-to-back outings and 42 pitches.
John Ryan
Arizona D-Backs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Arizona D-Backs
5* graded play on Arizona as they take on the Colorado Rockies set to start at 8:40 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will redeem themselves from yesterday’s loss. I had Colorado yesterday as a 15* Titan and used a big late inning outburst to secure the win. However, the Diamondbacks are a hot team and I strongly believe they will win this game big. If you like the game as much as I then consider a Run Line play as well. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 175-158 for 53% winners, but has made a whopping 51.5 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play on all dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season facing an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. Arizona is a strong 27-11 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of this season. Take Arizona.
Dave Price
1 Unit on NY Mets -116
The Marlins are just 8-23 in their last 31 overall, and I expect their struggles to continue with Dickey stepping to the mound for New York. Dickey has been at his best on the road this season, and the Mets have won 5 of his last 6 road starts as a result. The Mets have also won his last 3 starts against Florida, and he hasn't allowed a single earned run in 2 wins against the Marlins this season. We'll bet the Mets.