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Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, September 9,2009

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SPORTS ADVISORS

Tampa Bay (72-67) at N.Y. Yankees (90-50)

The Yankees go for a four-game sweep of the Rays and look to move another step closer to wrapping up the A.L. East title when they send Joba Chamberlain (8-5, 4.41 ERA) to the mound against Tampa Bay rookie Jeff Niemann (12-5, 3.67).

After sweeping a day-night doubleheader from Tampa Bay on Monday by a combined score of 15-2, New York used some final-bat heroics on Tuesday, getting a walk-off home run from Nick Swisher in the bottom of the ninth to win 3-2. In addition to taking the first three games of this series, the Yankees have won 11 of their last 13, allowing three runs or fewer in eight of those contests.

New York is on additional surges of 52-18 overall, 42-13 at home, 26-6 against divisional foes, 14-4 against teams with a winning record, 39-13 on Wednesday, 37-18 against right-handed starters and 43-17 as a favorite. Joe Girardi’s club is the first to 90 wins and now leads the A.L. East by nine games.

The Rays have now dropped a season-high seven in a row, tallying three runs or less five times, and they’re just 3-12 in their last 15 contests, a slump that has all but ended their hopes of a return trip to the postseason. Tampa Bay is also in ruts of 0-6 against right-handed starters and 1-6 versus the A.L. East.

New York has won seven of the last eight meetings against Tampa Bay this year and is 58-24 in the last 82 series clashes in the Bronx.

Niemann was outstanding in his last two starts, both against the Tigers, giving up just three runs over a combined 14 2/3 innings, but his bullpen imploded in both games, with the Rays losing both by a 4-3 score. Still, Tampa Bay is on runs behind Niemann of 14-6 overall, 5-1 on Wednesday and 5-1 versus the A.L. East, but they’ve lost four of his last five on the highway, where the big right-hander is 7-3 with a 4.47 ERA in 16 starts.

Neimann’s lone start against the Yankees came in the Bronx on May 7, giving up two runs on three hits and four walks in just 3 1/3 innings, but Tampa Bay pulled out an 8-6 victory.

Chamberlain has lasted just three innings in his last two starts and hasn’t gone longer than five in his last four outings. The right-hander gave up three runs (two earned) on six hits and two walks on Thursday at Toronto, losing 6-0. Chamberlain has gone six straight starts without a quality outing going back to the end of July, and he’s 1-3 with a 7.96 ERA during this stretch.

Despite Chamberlain’s recent struggles, with the 23-year-old on the hill, New York is still on runs of 15-6 overall, 17-4 at home, 23-9 as a chalk, 7-1 against division rivals and 5-0 on Wednesday. For the season, he’s 3-3 with a 5.38 ERA in 15 home starts, and he’s 1-0 with a 1.21 ERA in nine career appearances (two starts, both this season) against Tampa Bay.

For Tampa Bay, the “under” is on runs of 6-2 on the road, 10-4 as an underdog, 36-17-4 against right-handed starters, 18-8 against right-handed starters and 7-3 with Niemann starting. Meanwhile, New York is on “over” stretches of 6-3 overall, 9-4 against the A.L. East, 7-3 against winning teams, 5-1 behind Chamberlain overall, 5-0 when he starts at home and 18-6-1 when he pitches as a favorite. However, the under is 17-8-1 in the Yankees’ last 26 games in the Bronx.

Finally, the under is 6-2 in the last seven battles between these rivals and 11-5 in the last 16 clashes in New York.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER

Seattle (72-67) at L.A. Angels (82-55)

The Mariners continue a 10-game, three-city A.L. West road trip at Angel Stadium, with Ian Snell (4-1, 4.89 ERA) slated to matchup against Los Angeles ace Jered Weaver (14-5, 3.74.

The Angels got a run in the bottom of the 10th inning to take Tuesday’s series opener 3-2. Los Angeles has won six of its last nine, giving up a total of just 18 runs in the process. However, the Angels’ once-red-hot offense has been held to three runs or fewer in six of its last seven games. Mike Scioscia’s club is on runs of 54-25 overall, 11-3 in the second game of a series and 5-2 on Wednesday.

Seattle has lost three in a row following a four-game winning streak and it is now 19-41 in its last 60 games as an underdog. On the bright side, the Mariners are on upticks of 7-4 against A.L. West foes, 5-1 versus right-handed starters, 13-3 on Wednesday and 4-0 in Game 2 of a series.

The Mariners still hold a 9-8 edge in the season series, but they’re just 9-21 in their last 30s games at Angel Stadium.

After getting blown out in Snell’s first three starts with the club by a combined score of 25-7, the Mariners have won four straight behind the right-hander, including Thursday’s 7-4 victory at Oakland. Snell has allowed a total of seven runs (six earned) over 21 2/3 innings in his last four trips to the mound (2.49 ERA).

Since being dealt to the Mariners at the end of July, Snell is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three road outings. His only previous start against the Angels came in an interleague game when he was with Pittsburgh in 2007, and he got rocked, allowing five runs on 10 hits in six innings of a 10-1 road defeat.

Weaver has been tremendous in his last two outings, allowing just one run over 13 innings, getting a no-decision in a 4-3 home loss to Oakland, then earning a 2-1 win at Kansas City on Friday. The Angels are 15-5 in Weaver’s last 20 starts overall and 36-16 in his last 52 at home, where he’s 8-2 with a 2.89 ERA in 15 outings in 2009.

Weaver is 7-3 with a 4.75 ERA in 13 career starts versus the Mariners, including 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two contests this season (both in April). The Halos have won five straight home games against Seattle with Weaver on the bump.

The under is 20-7 in Seattle’s last 27 games versus the A.L. West and 15-2 in its last 17 on Wednesday, but the over is 7-4-1 in the M’s last 12 roadies. Meanwhile, the Angels have stayed under the number in six straight games overall and four of five on Wednesday, but the over is 20-9 in their last 29 at home and 35-18-3 in their last 55 when favored. Also, with Weaver pitching, the “over” is on runs of 11-3 overall, 6-2 at home, 9-3 as a favorite and 10-1 when he faces Seattle.

Lastly, the under is 7-2 in the last nine Mariners-Angels battles.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:23 am
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DUNKEL INDEX

Texas at Cleveland
The Indians look to build on their 6-2 record in Fausto Carmona's last 8 home starts as an underdog between +110 and +150. Cleveland is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130)

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 13.987; Pittsburgh (Hart) 14.244
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+140); Under

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.837; Milwaukee (Suppan) 16.020
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-215); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+195); Over

Game 955-956: San Diego at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Leblanc) 15.403; San Francisco (Zito) 15.923
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-170); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia vs. Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 13.429; Washington (Mock) 14.329
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+180); Over

Game 959-960: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.109; NY Mets (Misch) 14.663
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-130); Under

Game 961-962: Atlanta at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.707; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.686
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+125); Over

Game 963-964: Cincinnati at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.506; Colorado (Hammel) 16.106
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-165); Over

Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Garland) 15.175; Arizona (Haren) 15.465
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-130); Over

Game 967-968: Texas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 14.799; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.271
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130); Under

Game 969-970: Minnesota at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pavano) 15.083; Toronto (Halladay) 16.457
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-210); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-210); Over

Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.550; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 15.739
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under

Game 973-974: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Berken) 16.204; Boston (Byrd) 15.143
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Boston (-200); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+180); Over

Game 975-976: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.337; Kansas City (Tejeda) 14.826
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-190); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-190); Over

Game 977-978: Oakland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.640; White Sox (Garcia) 16.334
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-125); Over

Game 979-980: Seattle at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Snell) 14.825; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.081
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-210); Over

WNBA

Detroit at Minnesota

The Lynx look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 trips to Minnesota. Minnesota is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota.

Game 651-652: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 111.391; Minnesota 113.111
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 168
Vegas Line & Total: Pick; 159
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota; Over

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:26 am
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Sports Gambling Hotline

Cubs -140 at PITTSBURGH
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Comp play winner on the Cubs last night, now 31-15-3 the last 49 days with our comp plays.

How does the old saying go? If it ain't broke, you don't need to fix it?

Well, we are coming right back this Wednesday afternoon and playing the Cubs to once again handle the Pirates.
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Pittsburgh has now lost 11 of their last 12 games, and they are now 1-4 at home this year against Chicago.

In fact, the Cubs are now 8-2 in the season series, and have won 25 of the last 31 series meetings against their division rivals.

As for the pitching matchup, Carlos Zambrano is 5-2 on the road this year, while rookie Kevin Hart has hit the skids, losing his last 3 starts while allowing 12 earned runs in 17 innings of work.

No doubt about it, the Cubs are the play in this matinee contest at PNC.
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Play on Chicago.

5♦ CUBS

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:28 am
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Bobby Maxwell

Florida -135 at N.Y. METS
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FREE play winner on Tuesday as the Yankees got the ninth-inning walk-off homer from Nick Swisher to get me the comp play cash. Tonight I'm in the National League with a comp selection on the Marlins as they visit the Mets.

Florida ekked out the win on Tuesday night in New York and expect them to make this one look easy as they have righty Ricky Nolasco (10-8, 5.27 ERA) on the mound going up against lefty Patrick Misch (1-1, 3.25).

The Marlins have won six of Nolasco's last nine starts, including Thursday at home when he held the Braves to three runs in six innings of work in an 8-3 Florida win. He's faced the Mets twice this season, both back in April before the New York implosion and the onslaught of injuries hit them.
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Misch makes his third start as a Met and this guy didn't have any luck with the Giants last season and not much in his first two this year with New York. The Giants lost his final eight starts with them and then even though he pitched well in his first outing with the Mets, they lost 5-2 to the Cubs.

New York has not been very good lately, and really all season. The Mets are on slides of 4-11 as underdogs, 5-18 against N.L. East teams, 1-5 as a home 'dog, 1-6 at home against teams with winning road records and 4-10 against right-handed starters.

Meanwhile, the Marlins are 11-5 in Nolasco's last 16 starts, 5-2 in his last seven on the road, 13-3 when he gets a full five days of rest, 33-15 as a favorite and 5-1 when they face N.L. East squads.
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Florida isn't mathmatically eliminated from the postseason and they are still playing some decent baseball. New York hasn't played decent ball all season. Play the Marlins in the Big Apple tonight.

3♦ FLORIDA

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:28 am
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Dominic Fazzini

Oakland +130 at CHICAGO WHITE SOX
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I pulled down a win on my complimentary selection Tuesday backing the Rangers against Cleveland in Game 1 of the teams' doubleheader. Now I'm turning to an underdog to claim another victory.

Athletics rookie Trevor Cahill (8-12, 4.66 ERA) has really improved as the season has progressed. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA over his last five starts.

Cahill hasn't receive a decision in two starts against the White Sox this year, but he has a 3.09 ERA against them, allowing four runs and nine hits in 11 2/3 innings. He gave up two runs and six hits in six innings on Aug. 16 in his last start vs. Chicago, a 3-2 Oakland victory.
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Freddy Garcia (1-2, 4.76 ERA) will be making his fifth start since being called up from Triple-A Charlotte on Aug. 18. The veteran right-hander has improved with each start, allowing one run and seven hits in six innings Friday against Boston, but his track record over the past three seasons is not good, as he is 3-8 with a 5.36 ERA.

Garcia is 6-6 with a 5.08 ERA in 19 career starts against the A's, and 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA in two home starts this year.

Oakland has won four straight games in Chicago this year, and scored seven runs in the first two innings Tuesday en route to an 11-3 victory. The White Sox have made it a habit of shooting themselves in the foot all season, and I think that trend continues today. Look for Cahill to make another strong start today and the underdog A's to gain the victory.
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2♦ OAKLAND

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:29 am
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Karl Garrett

Oakland at WHITE SOX -130
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G-Man going to the junior circut for your Wednesday free play winner, as I like the White Sox to rebound from last night's pounding.

Trevor Cahill has found a little groove, as the righty is 2-0 over his last 3 starts with an ERA just over 2. The problem is, he is just 2-5 on the road this year with a 4.99 ERA.

Chicago has still won 5 of their last 7, while Oakland has now won their last 3, and are 4-1 this year on the south side of Chicago.
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Freddy Garcia stops all of that nonsense, as Garcia is coming off 6 solid frames of 1 run ball in a home win over Boston. Look for Freddy to build on that positive start, and for the Pale Hose to cool off the A's in this meeting tonight.

Remember, even with last night's win, the Athletics are just 28-40 on the road for the season.

Lay the home wood, and go with the White Sox.
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2♦ WHITE SOX

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:30 am
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Vernon Croy
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Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
Play: Atlanta Braves
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We are getting very good value here with the Atlanta Braves Wednesday night who are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Braves are also 7-2 in their last 9 games against a lefty starter and they are hitting .281 as a team against left hand starters this season. Tommy Hanson (9-3, 3.07 ERA) has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of 2.68 over 8 starts and I look for him to have a solid start against the Astros Wednesday night since he has not faced them before. The Astros are just 1-4 in Wandy Rodriguez's (13-9, 2.82 ERA) last 5 starts when pitching with 4 days rest and he has struggled over 5 career starts against the Braves with an ERA of 5.93. Take the Atlanta Braves as my MLB Free Play for Wednesday night.

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:31 am
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Rocketman
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Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
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Atlanta is 1-5 their last 6 games overall after winning last night here in Houston. Houston has won 4 of their last 5 games overall. Houston bullpen has a 3.63 ERA at home this year. Wandy Rodriguez is 13-9 with a 2.82 ERA overall this year, 8-2 with a 1.60 ERA at home and has a 2.25 ERA his last 3 starts. Rodgriguez seems to always pitch extremely well in front of his home crowd. Rodriguez has won two of three decisions against Atlanta since 1997. Braves are 20-43 in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Astros are 23-9 in their last 32 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Astros are 10-4 in their last 14 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Astros are 40-19 in their last 59 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Astros are 13-3 in Rodriguezs last 16 home starts. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:32 am
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Rob Vinciletti
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Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
Play: Under 7.5
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The Braves have bright young righty T.Hanson going tonight. He has a solid 2.68 road era and takes on a light hitting Houston team tonight. The Astros counter with Wandy Rodriguez tonight. Rodriguez has been an excellent home pitcher again this year. He has a 1.60 home era and 2.25 over his last 3 starts. The Astros have gone under in his last three starts and 9 of his overall 13 home starts this year. In his lone home start vs the Braves he handled them rather easily allowing no earned runs over seven innings. In the series heading into Tuesdays game, five of the six games have gone under the total. This one figures to be low scoring as well.

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:33 am
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Marc Lawrence
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Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
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The Reds meet the Rockies in Game Three of their four-games series when Bronson Arroyo takes on Jason Hammel at Coors Field in Colorado. Despite being just 3-3 in his last six team starts, Arroyo has been super-sharp in those games with a 1.59 ERA. He also owns a 2.55 ERA in his last five road starts. After a hot start, Hammel has cooled down, going just 5-5 in his last 10 team starts. Considering his 6.75 ERA in his last three starts in September it appears he hits the wall just about this time of season. Back the steady serves of Arroyo and the Reds here tonight.

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:39 am
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DAVE COKIN
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CHICAGO CUBS / PITTSBURGH PIRATES
TAKE: PITTSBURGH PIRATES
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The Pirates are just awful, but I lean their way today. Carlos Zambrano is clearly not right and the Cubbies are toast as far as the playoff race is concerned. I would imagine Pirates starter Hart would love to stick it to his former team. No chance of my making a big play on the pathetic Pirates, but they're worth a flyer at home dogs odds today.

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:50 am
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JIM FEIST
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SAN DIEGO PADRES / SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
TAKE: OVER
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Free passes are a key to examine closely when looking at baseball totals. Pitchers who allow too many men on base via walks set themselves up for trouble -- and often high scoring tilts. In this game, Wade LeBlanc of San Diego has walked 10 batters in 16 innings, which explains a 6.06 ERA. Veteran Barry Zito of the Giants is a nibbler who is not afraid of walking too many, with 12 walks his last 3 starts (18 innings). Look for plenty of runs, play the Padres/Giants Over the total.

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:50 am
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EZWINNERS
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Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
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Toronto's ace pitcher Roy Halliday is coming off of a complete game shutout in his last outing and he has dominated the Twins in his career. In ten career starts against Minnesota, Halliday is a perfect 8-0 with an ERA of only 2.77. The Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano has been up and down all season and the Jays battered Pavano once this season to the tune of seven earned runs in just 4 and 2/3 innings. The Twins are only 1-7 in their last eight games in Toronto. I expect Pavano to get hammered once again as he shows why his season ERA is over 5 runs per game. Play Toronto on the runline.

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:52 am
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HENTAI SPORTS
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Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
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We are getting very good value here with the Atlanta Braves Wednesday night who are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Braves are also 7-2 in their last 9 games against a lefty starter and they are hitting .281 as a team against left hand starters this season. Tommy Hanson (9-3, 3.07 ERA) has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of 2.68 over 8 starts and I look for him to have a solid start against the Astros Wednesday night since he has not faced them before. The Astros are just 1-4 in Wandy Rodriguez’s (13-9, 2.82 ERA) last 5 starts when pitching with 4 days rest and he has struggled over 5 career starts against the Braves with an ERA of 5.93.

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 7:52 am
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Jr Tips
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Rays at Yankees
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New York (90-50) will try to finish its first four-game home sweep of Tampa Bay since 2004 after Nick Swisher's second homer of the game was a game-winning solo shot in the bottom of the ninth inning Tuesday night as the Yankees won for the ninth time in 10 games.Tampa Bay has a current season-high seven-game losing streak and 8 1/2 games behind wild-card leader Boston. The Rays have scored 19 runs during their slide with 58 strikeouts in 219 at bats.New York's Joba Chamberlain (8-5, 4.41) will try to win for the first time in six starts as he is 0-3 with an 8.14 ERA in that span, and hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in the last four outings. Chamberlain lasted into the third inning for the second straight time Friday at Toronto and yielded three runs in a 6-0 loss. He has thrown a total of 94 pitches in his last two outings as the Yankees continue to limit his innings while he starts on regular rest. Niemann will make his second career start against the Yankees as he gave up two runs over 3 1/3 innings May 7th in an 8-6 victory.The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his last seven outings since the start of August and he gave up only one run over 7 2/3 innings Friday in a 4-3 loss to Detroit. Tampa Bay is in the middle of a losing streak although their games have been lost by inches. Chamberlain hasn"t lasted past the 3rd inning and has a limit on the amouint of pitches the Yankees will let him throw. The Tampa Bay offense should break out of theior batting slump as they will see the Yankee bullpen early tonight.
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TAKE TAMPA BAY +1.5

 
Posted : September 9, 2009 8:30 am
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