Tony George
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Yankees -148 vs. D Rays
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Gotta take the Yanks again today off a win yesterday in this series. Quite frankly the Yankees are the best team in baseball right now and are hitting on all cylinders. INTERESTING STAT - Tampa has only won 24 times out of the last 82 trips to New York. Joba Chamberlin gets the start at home, and he has not been stellar at home this year 3-3 with over a 5 ERA, but I expect run support again from the Yanks, although Tampa starter Neimann has some decent numbers, his bullpen stinks, posting over an 8 ERA their last 3 games. Gotta love the hot bats for NY against a weak bullpen late in the game, THIS IS THE KEY TO THE GAME. I like them at home.
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Play the Yankees
Spartan
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Detroit at Kansas City
Play: Detroit -1.5
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For tonight I am going right back to the well, living in Missouri I am subjected the the Royals and their shenanigans year after year. I feel tonight they come crashing back to reality as the Tigers restore order. Justin Verlander, 16-7, 3.29 is attempting to toss his hat in the ring for the Cy Young award in the American League although I think with his numbers the Royals Greinke should get it. Poor Zack would have already won 18 or 19 games had he played for a contender or just a more competitive club. Not to mention his stuff is nastier than any of the other pitchers in the running. That's a different deal however, Verlander has absolutely owned this Kansas City franchise going an incredible 9-1 in his career with a 2.38 era. The Royals are plugging in anybody they feel can start at this point and tonight it is Robinson Tejeda. This guy can be a hand full and will try to take full advantage of the opportunity but is outclassed here. I cannot see Verlander losing to this ball club, Tigers on the run line to rebound tonight behind their ace.
Stephen Nover
Tampa Bay +130 at N.Y. YANKEES
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Yes, the Yankees have been near unstoppable. They've won 12 of their last 15 games and already have 90 wins. But look at the starting pitching matchup.
Tampa Bay's Jeff Niemann is a Rookie of the Year candidate. He's given up two earned runs or less 16 times this season. The Rays are 14-6 in his last 20 starts.
Let's contrast this with Yankees starter Joba Chamberlain, who is becoming one of the most overrated pitchers in the game. The Yankees have been babying Chamberlain. In an effort to limit his pitches and keep him fresh for the postseason, the Yankees have used him for just three innings in each of his last two starts.
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Since the Yankees started monitoring his innings, Chamberlain has turned in an 0-3 mark with a 9.00 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in his last four starts.
The Yankees might not have star closer Mariano Rivera. He's worked the past two nights throwing a combined 27 pitches. Rivera just came back on Monday from a groin injury, so the Yankees probably don't want to risk him three consecutive days.
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The Rays will salvage one of the games in this series and this is the one.
2♦ RAYS
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Florida Marlins at New York Mets
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It's been a while since the Marlins have faced a left-handed starter, but considering their 25-18 mark this season vs. southpaws, they should be more than happy to see lightly regarded Pat Misch, who gets the start for the Mets. Florida starter Nolasco carries in a 15-8 road team start record and a 15-6 TSR when working on five or six days rest. The Fish have taken 8 of 13 from New York in head to head play and the Metropolitans are 28-45 off an Under.
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Play on: Florida
Freddy Wills
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Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Chicago Cubs -1.5
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I'm taking the Cubs as I believe Zambrano is in line for a dominant start. He has pitched much better on the road this year 1.61 ERA's worth. He's 5-2 with a 3.03 ERA and he has always pitched well against the Pirates. Look for him to come out firing today. The Cubs hitting wise are a day team averaging close to 1 run more during their day games than night. In my opinion Soriano was hurting this team so now that he is out of the lineup I see them winning some games down the stretch. Hart will go up against the Cubs and it's not an unfamiliar place for Hart as he used to pitch for the Cubs. Now normally I believe the pitcher has the advantage in these type of match ups, but to be honest Hart is not the type of pitcher that can take advantage of a situation like this and I don't think he will. The Cubs have won 14 straight of their victories over the Pirates by more than 1 run so lets make it 15 as I don't see them losing here today. I think the bullpens will likely have a big role in today's game and Cubbie relievers have a 2.88 ERA in their last three while the Pirates have a 5.92. Hart has not gone more than 6 innings in a single start so the bullpen will most likely pitching 3+ innings for the Pirates which does not look good to me. Pirates are also 16-35 in their last 51 vs. RH starters!
LT Profits
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates went Over in a 9-4 Chicago win here in the Steel City last night, but that marked just the second Over in the last nine head-to-head meetings this season, and we look for these clubs to return to their Under ways this afternoon.
Carlos Zambrano gets the call for the Cubs, and while his temper is well documented, one cannot deny his enormous ability. Big Z looked great vs. the New York Mets on Friday, allowing one run on only three hits in six innings with seven strikeouts. Zambrano has been insanely consistent this season, allowing three earned runs or less in 19 of his 23 starts, and he held these Pirates to one earned run in 6.1 innings the only other time he had faced them this year.
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Kevin Hart has given a pretty good account of himself in this, his first full Major League season. Sure, his 4.67 ERA could be better, but he has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last 10 starts. Also do not forget that he began this season with the Cubs, which should give him a huge advantage in his first career start against them, as he should be quite familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of each Chicago batter.
Finally, neither team is hitting right now despite the nine-run outburst but the Cubs last night, as Chicago is still hitting a miserable .236 as a team over the last 10 games, while Pittsburgh has not been much better over that same span, at .251.
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Pick: Cubs/Pirates Under 8.5
Tom Freese
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Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Under
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Colorado starter Jason Hammel has allowed 18 runs total in his last 7 starts. Colorado is 10-3-1 UNDER off a win. The Rockies are 12-5-2 UNDER vs. teams with a losing record and they are 7-2-1 UNDER when Jason Hammel pitches Game 3 of a series. Cincinnati starter has allowed 11 runs total in his last 7 starts. Cincinnati is 11-1-1 UNDER their last 13 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Reds are 23-9-2 UNDER their last 34 road games vs. righty starters and they are 7-3 UNDER their last 10 games in the Mile High City. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Sean Murphy
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Under 9
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After these two teams combined to score 34 runs in a double-header yesterday, this isn't going to be the most popular bet on the board this afternoon.
That's just fine with me.
Yesterday's offensive explosion by both teams can be chalked up as an anomaly. Prior to scoring 11 and 10 runs in their double-header sweep, the Rangers had plated only four runs in their previous two games, and were in the midst of an ugly 15-inning scoreless streak.
The Indians scored 14 runs yesterday, that coming on the heels of a stretch that saw them plate three runs or less in four of their last five contests.
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I expect to see solid efforts from both of today's starting pitchers. The Rangers will hand the ball to their ace, Scott Feldman. He has been rock solid over his last three outings, allowing just a single earned run over 19 1/3 innings of work. Not surprisingly, the under cashed in all three of those games. He's faced the Indians twice during his career, with those games totaling just seven and five runs. Note that the under is 9-4 in Feldman's 13 road starts this season.
The Indians will counter with Fausto Carmona. He is coming off a solid effort in Detroit, in which he allowed only four hits and three runs over 6 1/3 innings in a 4-3 loss in extras. Since rejoining the rotation in late July, Carmona has been excellent at home. He made five consecutive starts here from July 31st to August 23rd, and allowed two earned runs or less in four of them. That included a solid effort against these same Rangers, allowing five hits and two runs over six innings. The under is 5-1 in his last six starts overall.
These two teams display strong season-long under trends on the road and at home respectively. The Rangers have played 23-43-2 to the under away from Arlington while the Indians check in with a 26-40-2 o/u record at Progressive Field.
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The very early start doesn't help the offenses here. Look for a rather low-scoring ball game today. Take the under.
John Ryan
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Play Kansas City Royals
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on KC as they take on Detroit set to start at 8:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 58-37 making 33.9 units since 1997. Play against AL road favorites in September games with a money line of -110 or higher and is a struggling offensive team scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season. Detroit is just 8-22 (-18.1 Units) against the money line versus poor base running teams averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Verlander is just 4-11 (-10.6 Units) against the money line versus poor base running teams averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take KC.
St Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: St Louis Cardinals
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on St. Louis as they face Milwaukee set to start at 8:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 70-5 for 93.3% winners since 2004. This system has also gone a perfect 12-0 this season. Play against all dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 and is currently cold with the bats hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher sporting a WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. Yes, you lay big wood with this system and based on how the AiS modules correlate information it is nearly impossible to get a higher graded play than 3* risk despite the reinforcing system. Obviously, this is a fantastic system to use in the seasons to come, but remember to write down to use a conservative wager amount. Cardinals starter Wainwright is a near perfect 15-1 (+15.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Cardinals are 17-1 (+15.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -175 to -250 this season. Take St. Louis.
LARRY NESS
Oakland Athletics @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox took three of four from the Red Sox over the weekend (Fri-Mon) but opened a two-game series with the A's by losing 11-3 last night. Beating the lesser clubs has been a problem for the White Sox in '09, as they are now a combined 15-17 against Baltimore, Kansas City and Oakland, the AL's three last-place teams. The win was Oakland's third straight but the A's haven't won four straight since a season-high seven-game win streak from June 2-8. Trevor Cahill (8-12, 4.66 ERA) gets the start for Oakland and the rookie has been streaky all season. He allowed three ERs or less in 13 of his first 15 starts, although he allowed seven ERs in the two he didn't. Over an eight start stretch from June 27-August 6 he allowed four ERs or more six times, going 1-6 with an 8.19 ERA (team was 2-6). However, he's back pitching better over his last five outings (since Aug 11), going 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA (team has won his last four starts!). The rookie will be opposed by Freddy Garcia, who is making a comeback with the White Sox. He was part of the team's outstanding starting rotation when it won the World Series in 2005 and won 17 games in 2006 (has won 16 or more in four seasons). Garcia won just twice while making just 14 starts these last two years and was only called up from the minors in 2009 back on August 18. This will be his fifth start and he's shown improvement each time out. He allowed seven hits and just one ER (six innings) in his most recent outing (a 12-2 win over teh Red Sax), picking up his first win since last September 17 when he beat Texas while pitching for the Tigers. Make that his second win since last September after tonight. Take the White Sox.
Doc's Sports
Take Houston Astros over Atlanta Braves
The Astros are 8-2 in their last 10-home games. The Braves have lost 5 of their last 6, and have scored just 9-runs in their last 5-games. Wandy Rodriguez has held opponents to one run or less in 10 of his last 12 starts. Doc’s Sports has a strong card going on Wednesday, jump on the action now.
Dave Price
1 Unit on LA Dodgers +115
I'll back LA at a nice price tonight as I expect them to stay focused with Colorado in hot pursuit. The D-backs have dropped 6 in a row and are 1-4 in Haren's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs. the Dodgers. The Dodgers have won 4 straight on the road and are a killer 22-7 in their last 29 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and a super 38-17 in their last 55 vs. the National League West. I'll back the better team at a great price for a unit here.
Randall the Handle
Baltimore +1.85 over BOSTON (1st 5 innings)
Paul Byrd is probably the biggest stiff in the league and it might not be close. This guy barely got an out in his last start, alloweing seven runs and 10 hits in 2.1 innings of work before he was yanked with the Bosox down 7-0. Byrd is a 38-yr-old pitcher that has nothing left in the tank after a long and very average career. He was a stiff the past few years, he’s been off for a year and had no plans on even pitching this year until the Red Sox called him up out of the blue for some temporary help. He was one start left in his life and this is it and should the wager go down, so be it. The bottom line here is that we’re going with the best of it at this price and it would be absolutely shocking to not see the O’s score a few early. Play: Boston +1.85 (Risking 2 units).
World Cup Qualifiers - Europe
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA +1.70 OVER Turkey
This is a huge match for both countries here, as only four points separate the two sides. Turkey will be the more desperate team as they view this as a must win if they are to creep within a point of Bosnia for that all important 2nd spot in group 5. Turkey beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 in Istanbul when these two first met, however, this match is not in Istanbul and Turkey seems to struggle mightily on the road, as was displayed when they tied an awful Estonian team 0-0. On the flip side Bosnia-Herzegovina has yet to lose at home and will be ready for Turkey as they try to solidify second place and knock Turkey out of contention. Bosnia-Herzegovina has plenty of quality on the attacking side and is well organized in the back. Turkey has been resilient in the past and has shown they can defy the odds, however, this Bosnian team is a very good one and with a win they will lock up 2nd place. Bosnia-Herzegovina will also have revenge on their mind as they let a 1-0 lead slip in Istanbul losing 2-1. At home Bosnia-Herzegovina is extremely tough and the home crowd will provide an added boost lifting the Bosnians to a victory. Play: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA +1.70 (Risking 2 units)
World Cup Qualifiers - Europe
Poland +1.73 over SLOVENIA
Poland travels to Slovenia as both countries are tied in 3rd place with 11 points each only 3 points behind second place Northern Ireland. Needless to say this is a massive match for both teams, as they will go for the win. Slovenia has played surprisingly good soccer and has a stingy defense allowing only four goals against in seven matches; however, they struggle to put the ball in the net as their 10 goals in seven matches will attest to. Poland has far more quality and will come out gunning from the start putting all sorts of pressure testing the Slovenian back line and goalkeeper. Slovenia’s last match was August 12, almost a full month ago and will show their rust while Poland played this past weekend drawing 1-1 with Northern Ireland and will be the better prepared team in this one. Overall, in a meaningful match Poland definitely has the better team and will show their quality and experience in this match. Play: Poland +1.73 (Risking 2 units)
World Cup Qualifiers - Europe
SERBIA +2.05 OVER France
I am not sure why odds makers have made Serbia an underdog in this one. They are first place in group 7, four points clear of 2nd place France, and are playing in Serbia. France is fortunate that they were placed in a weak group and are in second place only scoring nine goals while allowing seven makes me scratch my head wondering how can a team being only +2 in goal differential be in second place? This is not the France of old when they used to terrorize all competitions with a star-studded line up. Nobody is scared of France anymore; throw in the fact that their best player, Franck Ribery, will most likely not participate in this one due to injury, I cannot see Serbia losing at home here. Serbia is a very dangerous team on both sides of the ball as they have scored with ease burying 15 goals while only allowing five in the process. Serbia did lose in France 2-1, its only loss thus far; this along the idea that if they win they clinch top spot will certainly motivate the home side in this one. Play: SERBIA +2.05 (Risking 2 units)
World Cup Qualifiers - South America
Argentina +1.31 over PARAGUAY
There is now more pressure on Argentina than there has ever been in a long, long time to qualify for the World Cup in 2010. Argentina currently sits in 4th place only two points ahead of Colombia and come into this match-up five points behind Paraguay for 3rd place. Argentina was embarrassed at home against arch-rival Brazil 3-1 on Saturday. Chances are great they’ll win here, as they have way too much talent and too much pride at stake to lose. Albeit Paraguay is a very good team with talent and they’re playing this game at home. If Argentina fails to win we may see many changes starting with either the firing or resignation of Coach Diego Maradona. I just think the Argentine players will be ready for this one and will come out firing on all cylinders. Once again, Argentina has some of the world’s best players starting with Lionel Messi and Co. I can’t see them dropping this all-important contest. Can you imagine the 2010 World Cup in South Africa without the world’s two best players in C.Ronaldo and L.Messi? I certainly cannot. Play: Argentina +1.31 (Risking 2 units)
ATS Consultants
Minnesota Twins/Toronto Blue Jays OVER 7.5
The Twins are fading fast in the AL Cental, and it appears that Detroit is running away with things. Minnesota is really going to have to turn it around quickly if they want any chance to get back into the race. Tonight, Carl Pavano takes on Roy Halladay as the Twins try to bounce back from last night’s loss.
Pavano (11-11, 5.09) has done a decent job since being acquired from the Indians at the trade deadline, but he hasn’t been nearly good enough to overcome the loss of Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano. He is 1-3 with a 5.10 ERA in his last 5 starts. In his only start this season against the Jays, he was terrible, allowing 7 runs on 7 hits in 4 2/3 innings on July 22.
Halladay (14-8, 2.98) has been his normal dominant self most of the season, but he is beginning to show a little wear and tear as he usually does towards the end of the season. Toronto has a tendency to overuse Halladay early in the year, thus tiring him down the stretch. He is 2-3 with a 4.24 ERA in his last 5 efforts.
Lenny Del Genio
St Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
This appears to be like taking candy from a baby. St. Louis just may be the best team in the National League right now and we love the clubs 17-1 mark when favored in the -175 to -250 price range. Overall, the team has won 42 of its past 61 games and gives the baseball to MLB?s best #2 starter Adam Wainwright, who has led his team to wins in 12 of 13 road starts this season. Milwaukee?s Jeff Suppan has an absolutely dreadful 1-21 team start record in the +175 to +250 price range. Take St. Louis.