Friday 4/15/22 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games
GreenPunter
USA: MLB
New York Mets – Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets -1.5
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mlb-undertips info
Boston Red Sox – Minnesota Twins
Under 9.5
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Line Sniper - Red Dave
NBA Play: Cleveland Cavaliers +1
MLB Top Play: Boston Red Sox -115
Running Results: 176-166 (51%)
Running MLB Results: 4-6 (-2.45 units)
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Matt Severance
NEW ORLEANS @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 04/15 | 10:00 PM EDT
L.A. CLIPPERS -179
ANALYSIS: The Pelicans have won nine of their past 11 with both CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram healthy, but we have to go Clippers at home. It is an advantage that they have an extra day of rest as well. The teams last played on April 3 in LA and the Clippers rolled by 19. Paul George and Robert Covington are very good defenders who can slow down Ingram (3-for-11 from the field in April 3 loss). George has been here/done that and will take over down the stretch offensively. The Clippers were 25-16 at home this season and New Orleans 17-24 on the road. (I'm not picking Hawks-Cavs until there's clarity on Jarrett Allen's potential return.)
+3241 73-26 IN LAST 99 NBA ML PICKS
SAN FRANCISCO @ CLEVELAND | 04/15 | 7:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +1.5
ANALYSIS: Being as it's Easter Weekend, probably not a ton of picks as I don't want to be smite. Getting the Guards at just -125 on the runline for their home opener seems like great value. Yes, Giants pitcher Carlos Rodon can be dominant but at least the Cleveland batters know him from his White Sox days. Rodon did no-hit Cleveland last year but no Steven Kwan for the Guards then! Their pitcher, Zach Plesac, is no slouch himself.
MINNESOTA @ BOSTON | 04/15 | 2:10 PM EDT
BOSTON +1.5
ANALYSIS: Going to jump this Friday afternoon game early. It's the Red Sox's home opener and the first road game for the Twins. Neither starting pitcher -- Joe Ryan for Minnesota and Nick Pivetta for Boston -- is all that exciting. I simply don't think Boston should be a home dog unless it is facing an excellent opposing pitcher on a very good team. That's not the case here. I'd be willing to bet the Sox aren't underdogs by the morning (if not in a few hours) so we'll take +1.5 while we can (-160).
HOUSTON @ SEATTLE | 04/15 | 9:42 PM EDT
SEATTLE +1.5
ANALYSIS: It's Seattle's home opener and that always means a bit more to the players. There will be a sellout (it's Jackie Robinson Day on Friday and I believe every player in the majors will be wearing No. 42). Seattle was 46-35 at home last year and this season's club looks much better on paper. M's lefty Marco Gonzales didn't look good in his season debut at Minnesota but went 9-1 after the All-Star Break with a 2.70 ERA last year so I'll call that a hiccup. Houston's Jake Odorizzi was 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three starts at Seattle in 2021. Runline at -160. Probably it for me today MLB-wise barring a star sitting out, pitching change, etc.
CHI. CUBS @ COLORADO | 04/15 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -120
ANALYSIS: I faded the Cubs in Denver -- where it seems they never play well -- on Thursday and that didn't work out, but I'm going back to it at this short price. It felt like the Rockies had two guys on base every inning last night but they simply couldn't cash in. Colorado starter German Marquez is one of those guys who for some reason tends to pitch better at Coors Field. He was 8-3 with a 3.67 ERA there last year and had a very strong 2022 home debut vs. the Dodgers (7 IP, 1 ER). No Cub has homered off him. One Chicago key reliever, Keegan Thompson, surely won't be available after 3.1 scoreless innings Thursday. He got the win.
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John Bollman
SAN FRANCISCO @ CLEVELAND | 04/15 | 7:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND 130
ANALYSIS: The Guardians have sneakily won four games in a row and they are actually leading the league in runs scored at 45 this season. They also return home for their home opener today. Carlos Rodon looked very good in his first start, but he actually didn’t do too well against the Guardians after pitching the no-hitter last year in his first start against them. Zach Plesac threw 5.2 shutout innings in his first start this season and he is more than capable of stealing a win. The Giants are still without many key bats and the Guardians are hitting lefties to a .443 wOBA right now. I like the Guardians in their home opener.
TAMPA BAY @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 04/15 | 7:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -140
ANALYSIS: Drew Rasmussen has been very good for the Rays each of the past two seasons, but he doesn’t get deep into the game. Well, that’s a problem considering the Rays bullpen has pitched 26.2 innings in the past 4 games. The starters have accounted for just 9.1 of the 36 innings pitched in the past four days. This bullpen is more than worn down and it was evident in the Athletics series. The White Sox essentially had yesterday off resting all their starters and not using any of their top bullpen arms, and they were one of the best home teams in the league last season. I honestly think Dylan Cease will win a Cy Young sometime soon, his stuff is that good. He’s not there yet but I love this matchup against a strikeout-heavy team in the Rays. Take the White Sox at home.
MINNESOTA @ BOSTON | 04/15 | 2:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -135
ANALYSIS: Nick Pivetta struggled in his first start but that was against the Yankees who he’s struggled against in his career. Joe Ryan didn’t pitch much better either in his first start on Opening Day and that was at home. This is the Red Sox home opener and I think Alex Cora will use every reliever at his disposal to try to pick up the win today after having yesterday off. This is still only Ryan’s 7th career start, and he should be getting the full brute of the Red Sox lineup today. Usually, I don’t take home openers into account much, but so far this season most teams have been winning them. I like the value on the Red Sox at home.
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Michael Alexander
NBA, 04/15 10:10 PM New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Clippers
PICK: Los Angeles Clippers -175 for 2 Units
The Pelicans have won nine of their past 11 with both CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram healthy, but we have to go Clippers at home. It is an advantage that they have an extra day of rest as well. The teams last played on April 3 in LA and the Clippers rolled by 19. Paul George and Robert Covington are very good defenders who can slow down Ingram (3-for-11 from the field in April 3 loss). George has been here/done that and will take over down the stretch offensively. The Clippers were 25-16 at home this season and New Orleans 17-24 on the road.
MLB, 04/15 2:10 PM Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox -123 for 2 Units
Nick Pivetta struggled in his first start but that was against the Yankees who he’s struggled against in his career. Joe Ryan didn’t pitch much better either in his first start on Opening Day and that was at home. This is the Red Sox home opener and I think Alex Cora will use every reliever at his disposal to try to pick up the win today after having yesterday off. This is still only Ryan’s 7th career start, and he should be getting the full brute of the Red Sox lineup today. Usually, I don’t take home openers into account much, but so far this season most teams have been winning them. I like the value on the Red Sox at home.
MLB, 04/15 7:10 PM San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians
PICK: Cleveland Guardians 137 for 2 Units
The Guardians have sneakily won four games in a row and they are actually leading the league in runs scored at 45 this season. They also return home for their home opener today. Carlos Rodon looked very good in his first start, but he actually didn’t do too well against the Guardians after pitching the no-hitter last year in his first start against them. Zach Plesac threw 5.2 shutout innings in his first start this season and he is more than capable of stealing a win. The Giants are still without many key bats and the Guardians are hitting lefties to a .443 wOBA right now. I like the Guardians in their home opener.
MLB, 04/15 7:10 PM Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox -128 for 2 Units
Drew Rasmussen has been very good for the Rays each of the past two seasons, but he doesn’t get deep into the game. Well, that’s a problem considering the Rays bullpen has pitched 26.2 innings in the past 4 games. The starters have accounted for just 9.1 of the 36 innings pitched in the past four days. This bullpen is more than worn down and it was evident in the Athletics series. The White Sox essentially had yesterday off resting all their starters and not using any of their top bullpen arms, and they were one of the best home teams in the league last season. I honestly think Dylan Cease will win a Cy Young sometime soon, his stuff is that good. He’s not there yet but I love this matchup against a strikeout-heavy team in the Rays. Take the White Sox at home.
MLB, 04/15 8:40 PM Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado Rockies -114 for 2 Units
I faded the Cubs in Denver -- where it seems they never play well -- on Thursday and that didn't work out, but I'm going back to it at this short price. It felt like the Rockies had two guys on base every inning last night but they simply couldn't cash in. Colorado starter German Marquez is one of those guys who for some reason tends to pitch better at Coors Field. He was 8-3 with a 3.67 ERA there last year and had a very strong 2022 home debut vs. the Dodgers (7 IP, 1 ER). No Cub has homered off him. One Chicago key reliever, Keegan Thompson, surely won't be available after 3.1 scoreless innings Thursday. He got the win.
MLB, 04/15 9:42 PM Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners 1.5 for 2 Units
It's Seattle's home opener and that always means a bit more to the players. There will be a sellout (it's Jackie Robinson Day on Friday and I believe every player in the majors will be wearing No. 42). Seattle was 46-35 at home last year and this season's club looks much better on paper. M's lefty Marco Gonzales didn't look good in his season debut at Minnesota but went 9-1 after the All-Star Break with a 2.70 ERA last year so I'll call that a hiccup. Houston's Jake Odorizzi was 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three starts at Seattle in 2021. Runline at -160. Probably it for me today MLB-wise barring a star sitting out, pitching change, etc.
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Wayne Root
Chairman- Atlanta Hawks
Root Reserve- New Orleans
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MLB Martingale
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 @ 2.70
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AAA Sports
10* RUN LINE ASSASSIN
Oakland Athletics +1.5 (-110) Oakland (Jefferies) vs Toronto Blue Jays(Stripling)
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Soccer Authority
9* Inter Milan U3 -111
10* AC Milan U2.5 -102
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ZITI Sports
NHL
Winnipeg Jets vs. Florida Panthers OVER 6.5 -135 (7:05 PM)
MLB
Tampa Bay Rays +128 Chicago White Sox (7:10 PM)
Colorado Rockies -116 Chicago Cubs (8:40 PM)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins OVER 7.5 -110 (6:40 PM)
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners OVER 8.5 -115 (9:40 PM)
SOCCER OVER SYSTEM
Croatia - 1. HNL- HNK Hajduk Split vs. HNK Gorica OVER 2.5 -145 (2:05 PM)
Italy - Serie A- AC Milan vs. Genoa OVER 2.5 -113 (3:00 PM)
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ATS COVERS 13-1 L14
MLB 8:10 pm Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals -123 for 1 units
MLB 10:10 pm Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 for 1 units
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Rob Vinciletti
NBA
Cleveland +2
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aaa
white sox
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jim feist
mets rl
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ricky tran
kc royals
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Andrew McInnis
NHL
3% Canadiens +130
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Great Lake Sports
MLB
3* #974 Texas +110 (Bush)
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IC
NBA
6 - Under 223 Atlanta vs. Cleveland
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Andy Lang
NBA Play of the Day
5% Atlanta Hawks Team Total Over 112' (-110)
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Chicago Cubs +105 (10*)
In Game Trap
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kelso
15 phillies
15 royals
15 braves
25 clippers
15 hawks
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Matt Snyder
CINCINNATI @ L.A. DODGERS | 04/15 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -1.5
ANALYSIS: We rode the Dodgers on the run line Thursday night and it paid off late. We're gonna stick with what works here and go Dodgers, -1.5 (-121). It happened late Thursday, with a six-run barrage pushing the Dodgers to an easy run line win. It might transpire in similar fashion Friday, but this Dodgers lineup is going to eat the Reds' pitching staff for breakfast, lunch and dinner all weekend. The deep and powerful Dodgers lineup has scored 23 runs in the last three games combined. The sacrificial lamb Friday would be Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez, who has walked 48 hitters in his 118 1/3 career innings while allowing opposing hitters to slash .267/.340/.471 against him. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin is actually pretty underrated (2.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 145 1/3 career innings) and the Dodgers' bullpen is relatively rested. Another blowout is in order.
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11:35 AM
MINNESOTA @ BOSTON | 04/15 | 2:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -129
ANALYSIS: A 3-3 record on a road trip to enter the season isn't all bad, but the Red Sox really weren't that far away from, say, a 5-1 trip. The offense woke up on the last two days of the trip and now they'll finally play in the comfort of Fenway Park. The Red Sox were 49-32 at home last season. They won't falter here in matinee action in front of what will be a raucous crowd.
+616 8-2 IN LAST 10 MLB PICKS
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Matt Severance
NEW ORLEANS @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 04/15 | 10:00 PM EDT
NEW ORLEANS +4
ANALYSIS: Breaking news that Paul George is out tonight for the Clippers in the COVID protocols. My own dang fault for taking Los Angeles on the moneyline early this week -- why you should always wait as long as possible. Now I have to come back and play the Pelicans on the spread. Maybe I get lucky and the Clippers win close somehow without PG13. Not impossible.
ATLANTA @ CLEVELAND | 04/15 | 7:30 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +2
ANALYSIS: If this game were in Atlanta or even the Orlando bubble, I'd take the Hawks without a doubt. However, they were 16-25 on the road and haven't beaten a Top 10 team in either conference on the road since Jan. 23 (0-9). I'd still probably like Atlanta tonight ... but the Cavs are simply a MUCH better team, especially defensively, with Jarrett Allen and all signs point to the All-Star center returning from injury. (Note: I would take Hawks ML if for some reason Allen doesn't play.) Bogdan Bogdanovic (left ankle sprain) will be a game-time decision for the Hawks. I'm sure he plays but if even limited a little that's another edge for Cleveland, which has covered seven of its past nine as a home dog. Atlanta is 6-15 ATS in its past 21 away.
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