Friday 4/22/22 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games
The Prez
(51) Ottawa Senators at (52) Columbus Blue Jackets
3% Total Over 6.0 (-125).
No analysis on this play - bet it NOW as I think it has a good chance to get to 6.5 -110 - this line is good at 6.5 -120 as I think we see a very high-scoring game.
__________________
GREENPUNTER
New York Yankees – Cleveland Guardians
New York Yankees -1.5
__________________
mlb-undertips info
Atlanta Braves – Miami Marlins
Under 8.5
__________________
The Winners Circle – Friday Sports Plays
NBA BASKETBALL
Play Atlanta +1.5 over Miami
Play Chicago +2.5 over Milwaukee
Play New Orleans +1.5 over Phoenix
~~~
NHL HOCKEY
Play Washington -330 over Arizona
~~~
MLB BASEBALL
Play Los Angeles Angels -175 over Baltimore
Play Los Angeles Dodgers -150 over San Diego
__________________
Ralph Michaels NHL
5%- Washington Capitals -1.5 (-135)
__________________
Matt Severance
PHOENIX @ NEW ORLEANS | 04/22 | 9:30 PM EDT
NEW ORLEANS +2.5
ANALYSIS: Early word is that the Suns will likely not have Devin Booker for this game in New Orleans due to his hammy. Can they win without him? Sure, but I have to take the points now (probably drop a bit once official). Phoenix was 8-6 without him this year; six losses is 33 percent of their season loss total.
+3012 107-57-1 IN LAST 165 NBA PICKS
__________________
Jeff Hochman
MIAMI @ ATLANTA | 04/22 | 7:00 PM EDT
ATLANTA +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Hawks return home after committing a total of 37 turnovers in the first two games at Miami. I have no problem fading Jimmy Butler and the Heat after two very impressive wins at home. Atlanta plays much better on its own court, and I would expect a top-notch effort in this spot. Take the hungry Hawks.
ZITI Sports
NBA
Phoenix Suns vs New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 216 -110 (9:30 PM)
MLB
St. Louis Cardinals -123 Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM)
Milwaukee Brewers +116 Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 PM)
Atlanta Braves -141 Miami Marlins (7:20 PM)
Oakland Athletics +120 Texas Rangers (9:40 PM)
NHL
Colorado Avalanche vs Edmonton Oilers OVER 6.5 -115 (9:05 PM)
SOCCER UNDER SYSTEM
Portugal - Primeira Liga- FC Vizela vs. FC Arouca UNDER 2.5 -121 (3:15 PM)
SOCCER OVER SYSTEM
Austria - Erste Liga- SK Vorwaerts Steyr vs. Floridsdorfer AC OVER 2.5 +105 (2:25 PM)
__________________
Line Sniper
Yesterday 1-1
Running Results: 179-170 (51%)
Running MLB Results: 7-10 (-4.75 units)
Top Play: Milwaukee Brewers +105
Regular Play: Miami Heat -1
__________________
Wayne Root
gold standard- Rockies
reserve- Bulls
Gold Standard- Suns
__________________
The Money Team Friday (TMT)
NBA Playoffs 20-4 +$25,200 (83%)
2k Atlanta Over 221.5
2k Chicago Under 222.5
2k New Orleans Under 216
__________________
ATS COVERS
MLB 6:40 pm St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
St Louis Cardinals -117 for 1 units
MLB 7:10 pm Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays -152 for 1 units
__________________
Brian Bitler
9* NBA Friday Total Winner
Phoenix Suns vs New Orleans Pelicans Under 216.5
__________________
Andy Lang
NBA Play of the Day
5% Brook Lopez Over 16' Points (+100)
__________________
Pure Lock
10* Chicago Cubs -162
10* Milwaukee Bucks -1.5
__________________
kelso
chairmans
25 bucks
25 suns
personal best
50 astros under
best bets
15 cards
15 giants
15 braves
__________________
IC
MLB: 7-Unit Play. Take Detroit Tigers -145 over Colorado Rockies (Friday @ 7:10pm est)
__________________
Strike Point
7-Unit Play. Tampa Bay (-140) over Boston (7:10 p.m., Friday, April 22)
__________________
Scott Spreitzer
3* St Louis -120
__________________
August Young
7* Colorado Avalanche -115
__________________
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider - Tampa -139
10* Situational Stunner - CWS -103
NBA 3-in-1 Superstar Triple Play - Phoenix -1.5 , Milwaukee -2.5 , Atlanta +1.5
MLB Oddsmaker's Error - Milwaukee -110
__________________
Al McMordie
NBA TRIPLE PACK – Atlanta +1.5 , Chicago Under 223 , Phoenix Under 216.5
NBA PLAYOFF PAYOFF! – Phoenix -1.5
MLB ELITE INFO – Yankees -180
__________________
Goodfella
1* Reds/Cards Under 1H 4.5
__________________
Ben Burns
EAST CONF. 10* NBA GAME OF WEEK! – Milwaukee -2.5
10* MLB DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH – Atlanta -136
10* NBA O/U BLUE CHIP – Atlanta Over 221.5
NBA ABC TV TOTAL ANNIHILATOR! – Milwaukee Over 222.5
RUNLINE HOME RUN CLUB – Reds +1.5 -144
MLB HIGH HEAT – Texas
__________________
Dave Cokin
1%- St. Louis Cardinals -117 S Matz (LHP), H Greene (RHP) Must Start
3%- New York Mets -118 Action
__________________
Gianni
3%- Chicago Cubs -167 J Quintana (LHP), D Smyly (LHP) Must Start
3%- Total Over 7.5 (-115) J Quintana (LHP), D Smyly (LHP) Must Start
__________________
3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #903/904 St. Louis/Cincinnati OVER 8 (Matz/Greene)
__________________
Matt Severance
TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 04/22 | 9:40 PM EDT
OAKLAND +1.5
ANALYSIS: A 3-9 team as a solid road favorite over an 8-6 team. Hmm. The A's have been perhaps the best bet of this early season. I doubt it continues into May, but I'll ride the train while they are playing well. I really don't have a lot to say here. It's the season debut of Rangers starter Glenn Otto. He made six starts for Texas last year and posted a 9.26 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 23.1 innings. That's not good. Frankly, A's counterpart Adam Oller isn't any better, but I simply think Oakland is good home value on the runline at -145. The A's very well may win. Not that I care.
N.Y. METS @ ARIZONA | 04/22 | 9:40 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -123
ANALYSIS: I'll be honest in that I was looking for a reason to take the Arizona runline, here but I don't see any value there at -150 when the Mets are only -123 to win. No real travel edge for the Snakes because both they and the Mets had to fly to the desert yesterday from the East Coast. New York's Francisco Lindor is arguably the hottest hitter in the NL right now. David Peterson has been unscored upon on 8.1 innings and threw 4.1 scoreless last Sunday vs. this Arizona team. Yeah, the Mets did lose to the Snakes' Zac Gallen last Saturday and maybe he's as good as Peterson, but these lineups aren't close. New York is 5-2 away and Arizona 2-4 at home. I recommend waiting to see the lineups, but I'll be watching "The Northman" by the time those are out.
ST. LOUIS @ CINCINNATI | 04/22 | 6:40 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -123
ANALYSIS: We are getting a pretty cheap price on the clearly better Cardinals here because their starting pitcher, Steven Matz, has a 7.27 ERA but that was just one bad start, while his counterpart is rookie Hunter Greene, he of the record-breaking 39 pitches of at least 100 mph last time out. Greene might get his strikeouts here, but Cincinnati is putrid otherwise and is down four regulars in the lineup in the injured Jonathan India (2021 NL Rookie of the Year), Tyler Stephenson, Mike Moustakas and Tyler Naquin.
__________________
Matt Severance
MIAMI @ ATLANTA | 04/22 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -144
ANALYSIS: The Marlins have just one road win and lefty Trevor Rogers, an NL Rookie of the Year candidate last year, is 0-2 with a 12.25 ERA so far this season. The Braves will have a full bullpen after being off Thursday and also will get back third baseman Austin Riley (.292, 2 HR, 6 RBI) from the paternity list. Maybe former touted prospect Kyle Wright has finally figured things out at age 26 as he has a 1.64 ERA through two starts. I doubt that's the case, but we'll back him for now.
PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 04/23 | 2:00 PM EDT
TORONTO +3
ANALYSIS: Toronto absolutely should have won Game 3 but missed a few crucial free throws and Joel Embiid made an incredible shot. The 76ers had been 1-21 in their playoff history when trailing by at least 10 points in a road playoff game entering the second quarter as they did Wednesday. It sounds as if stellar rookie Scottie Barnes will make it back for Saturday for Toronto, and it's an easy letdown spot for Philly as it knows the series is over and can just end it at home in Game 5. Matisse Thybulle remains out Saturday because he's not vaccinated.
+3012 107-57-1 IN LAST 165 NBA PICKS
__________________
Matt Severance
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN DIEGO | 04/22 | 9:40 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -156
ANALYSIS: The last time I raved about getting the Dodgers under -160, we lost on Walker Buehler. But we have to lean them here behind Julio Urias against journeyman Nick Martinez. In winning eight of nine, the Dodgers have a 1.78 ERA while allowing just five homers. Urias was roughed up in his opener but that was at Coors Field, so throw that out. He threw five shutout innings last time out. LA has won 15 of its past 21 at Petco.
OTTAWA @ COLUMBUS | 04/22 | 7:00 PM EDT
COLUMBUS +1.5
ANALYSIS: This moneyline has been going back and forth this morning and just flipped to Ottawa slightly being favored, so I'll take Columbus on the puckline even at pricy -210 (for now). Neither team has anything to play for. In that scenario, the home team usually has a big advantage. Also not a big fan of Ottawa netminder Filip Gustavsson (4-11-0, 3.71 GAA). You are probably fine taking the Jackets as a pick'em (-110) on the moneyline, I've just become such a fan of not worrying about a win when teams go to OT/shootout and being so freaking angry when I'm on the losing end -- if I had to guess, my shootout betting record is something like 5-23 or at least feels that way. This PL philosophy will change a bit in the playoffs when we don't have a shootout, which is completely random as for the most part is the five-minute OT.
+2334 34-8 IN LAST 42 NHL ATS PICKS
MILWAUKEE @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/22 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -125
ANALYSIS: The Phillies should have their best possible lineup for the first time this season because Odubel Herrera has been activated from the injured list and will make his season debut tonight. I'm not saying Herrera is Mickey Mantle, but he hit .260 with 13 homers and 51 RBIs in 124 games last year and is a solid defender. The Phils are just a different team at home and Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta has not been sharp in his two starts this year. It's southpaw Ranger Suarez for the Phils and Milwaukee is 1-7 in its past eight vs. a lefty.
__________________
John Bollman
MIAMI @ ATLANTA | 04/22 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -145
ANALYSIS: The Braves have been very good against lefties to start this season, ranked 8th in the league in wOBA. On the other hand the Marlins are actually much better against righties. However, Kyle Wright seems to have finally figured it out this season pitching very well in his first two starts. Trevor Rogers, on the other hand, has struggled this season. He faced Atlanta three times last season and his best start was allowing 2 ER in just 5 IP. The Marlins struggled on the road last season at 25-56 and they are 1-4 on the road to start this season. The Braves only went 11-8 against the Marlins and 5-5 at home last season, but they have also won 10 of the last 13 games between these teams. Austin Riley was reinstated and is back in the lineup after going on paternity leave, which is huge for the Braves lineup. The Braves also had yesterday off, take the Braves at home.
KANSAS CITY @ SEATTLE | 04/22 | 9:40 PM EDT
SEATTLE -130
ANALYSIS: The Mariners gave up 4 unearned runs last night that ultimately led to their loss, but their bullpen is also completely rested despite playing close games the past couple nights. Chris Flexen pitched well in his only start against the Royals last season and he has been decent to start this season. Brad Keller has been very good to start this season but he didn’t pitch great against the Mariners last season. The Royals have the second worst wOBA in the league while the Mariners are ranked 8th in the league. The Royals also have the 8th worst bullpen in the league while the Mariners have the 6th best. With the starting pitching close to a wash, I like the team with the significantly better lineup and bullpen at home. Take the Mariners at home to bounce back after last night.
BOSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 04/22 | 7:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -160
ANALYSIS: Both these pitchers have actually pitched extremely well to start the season, and Michael Wacha will be facing his former team in the Rays today. Usually that means either a very good start or a very bad start, nothing in the middle. The Red Sox lost JD Martinez to injury and that is a massive blow for them. The Rays on the other hand are healthy and rested after getting yesterday off. The Rays are ranked 10th in the league in wOBA against righties while the Red Sox are ranked just 23rd. The Red Sox bullpen is rested but they are also without one of their best relievers in Garrett Whitlock because he is building up to be a starter. The Rays were 11-8 against the Red Sox last season and 7-3 at home. I like the Rays.
MILWAUKEE @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/22 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -125
ANALYSIS: The Phillies head back home after a miserable road trip that saw them go 2-5 against the Marlins and Rockies. They take on the suddenly hot Brewers who have won 4 games in a row and 7 of their last 10. The Phillies however have lefty Ranger Suarez on the mound today, and the Brewers have the fourth worst wOBA in the league against lefties. Freddy Peralta struggled in his first two starts of the season against the Cubs and Cardinals, the only thing is the Brewers bullpen is significantly better than the Phillies. I would be worried about a late inning collapse but it’s worth the price at -125. The Phillies were 5-2 against the Brewers last season including 4-0 at home. I like the Phillies at home.
ST. LOUIS @ CINCINNATI | 04/22 | 6:40 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -125
ANALYSIS: Steven Matz takes on Hunter Greene today in Cincinnati. The Reds have lost 9 straight games and they are now 2-11 on the season. They are still missing lefty crusher Tyler Stephenson after he sustained a concussion in their last series, and they are still without reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India. Mike Moustakas is on the IL as well. The Cardinals were able to reset their bullpen yesterday, while the Reds have the second worst bullpen in the league. The Cardinals only went 9-10 against the Reds last season but that was a different group. Steven Matz should have success against a Reds team that is 24th in the league in wOBA against lefties when they had their best players healthy. Hunter Greene is an absolute stud so I think he will pitch well today, but he is still young and he doesn’t have much help in the bullpen behind him. Take the Cards.
__________________
Micah Roberts
PHOENIX @ NEW ORLEANS | 04/22 | 9:30 PM EDT
PHOENIX -2
ANALYSIS: Although the Suns will miss the injured Devin Booker, Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton should be enough to carry them. Cameron Payne and Jae Crowder need to wake up and perform well and I think they will. The Suns' defense leads the way to a Game 3 win. Back the Suns to cover.
MIAMI @ ATLANTA | 04/22 | 7:00 PM EDT
MIAMI -120
ANALYSIS: The Heat came into the playoffs hot, and they’ve stayed that way against Atlanta. They have now won and covered eight of their last nine. This is supposed to be a zig-zag spot with the Hawks returning home, but I can’t go with Atlanta without Clint Capela. Trae Young likely won’t have 10 turnovers again, but I see the steady Jimmy Butler leading the way again. I’m on the Heat to win, moneyline.
+380 6-2 IN LAST 8 NBA PICKS
__________________
Matt Snyder
N.Y. METS @ ARIZONA | 04/22 | 9:40 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -123
ANALYSIS: Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen threw four scoreless innings, only giving up two hits, in his only start of the 2022 season to this point. It came April 16 against these Mets. Generally speaking, good offensive teams getting a second crack at a starter in the span of a week bodes well for said offense. The Mets lead the NL in runs and on-base percentage. Plus, Gallen isn't fully stretched out (only 66 pitches last time) and the Diamondbacks' bullpen isn't very good. On the other side, Mets starter David Peterson is in a similar situation (4 1/3 scoreless innings against the D-Backs less than a week ago), but the Arizona offense is terrible and shouldn't be counted on. We'll take the good team at good value.
KANSAS CITY @ SEATTLE | 04/22 | 9:40 PM EDT
SEATTLE -130
ANALYSIS: Tough loss for the Mariners on Thursday, but they're the better team here and they'll show their mettle. Starter Chris Flexen is better than he's pitched and he held the Royals down last September against a lineup that won't be significantly different. On the flip side, Royals starter Brad Keller isn't nearly as good as his 1.38 ERA and 0.62 WHIP look through two starts. There's some evening out that needs to be done, so it'll start here with a good Mariners' lineup that ranks third in the AL in OBP. Someone to watch for possibly individual props: Mariners rookie Julio Rodriguez's traditional numbers look awful, but he's been working good at-bats and hitting the ball hard. He's been the victim of awful fortune in terms of balls/strikes calls and good opposing defense -- both great plays and positioning. Eventually the talent rises above.
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN DIEGO | 04/22 | 9:40 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -157
ANALYSIS: The Dodgers won their last nine games against the Padres last season. Does that matter? Maybe not, but the Dodgers are the superior team here, especially since Fernando Tatis, Jr. is hurt. They are 9-3, have scored double the number of runs they've allowed and they are still waiting on the likes of Max Muncy, Mookie Betts and Justin Turner to start hitting. Dodgers starter Julio Urias had a rough and weird outing in Coors to start the season, but was himself last time out. He faced the Padres twice in the second half last season and the result was 12 scoreless innings and two wins. The Dodgers' deep and talented bullpen is rested.
+1042 13-3 IN LAST 16 MLB PICKS
__________________
JM Sports
3* Rockies-Tigers over 8 (EV)
__________________
The Money Team Friday (TMT)
MLB YTD 22-17 +$20,900 (56%)
2k Oakland +115
2k Cincinnati Over 8
2k Houston Over 8
__________________
The Eightball
22-Apr-2022: 505 Suns -2 (2%)
22-Apr-2022: 504 Bulls +3 (2%)
22-Apr-2022: 501 Heat -1 (3%)
__________________
alex smart
colorado rockies
__________________
dave price
6
orioles
__________________
Allie O'Neill
N.Y. METS @ ARIZONA | 04/22 | 9:40 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -125
ANALYSIS: The Mets are starting David Peterson on Friday. He hasn’t allowed a run in either of his starts so far this season, one of them against the Diamondbacks. Last season, Peterson made two starts against Arizona and the Mets won both. The Mets are 10-2 this season, and Arizona is only 5-8. Back the Mets.
TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 04/22 | 9:40 PM EDT
OVER 7.5
ANALYSIS: Glenn Otto has been called up from Triple-A to start for the Rangers. Last season, he posted a 9.26 ERA in six starts. One of those starts was against the Athletics, and Otto surrendered eight runs in only 3.1 innings. Even if Otto pitched well, Texas’ relievers should leave plenty of opportunities for runs as they have a 5.04 ERA, the worst in the majors. Oakland is going with rookie Adam Oller, who has not looked good in either of his starts this season. The Rangers are scoring an average of 5.08 runs per game, and the A’s are scoring 4.71. Nine out of 12 Texas games have had at least eight runs scored, so I’ll take the Over.
+400 5-1 IN LAST 6 MLB PICKS
__________________
Zack Cimini
KANSAS CITY @ SEATTLE | 04/22 | 9:40 PM EDT
SEATTLE -130
ANALYSIS: The Mariners disappointed bettors Thursday after squandering a 5-0 lead to the Texas Rangers. A team outbreak of Covid-19 was expected to derail them. Yet, on Friday look for a bounce-back spot as Royals pitcher Brad Keller will test his arm on the road for the first time this season. A season ago, he had a road ERA of 5.03. Back the Mariners.
COLORADO @ DETROIT | 04/22 | 7:10 PM EDT
DETROIT -145
ANALYSIS: An outlier team to begin the season has been the Colorado Rockies. After an off day, they will travel to face the Detroit Tigers. Expect Rockies pitcher Antonio Senzatela to have another quick outing. He has been hit hard in both starts this season and has not made it past five innings. Take the Tigers.
PHOENIX @ NEW ORLEANS | 04/22 | 9:30 PM EDT
PHOENIX -2
ANALYSIS: The Phoenix Suns thrived on playing each regular season game with meaning. This included 14 games without star guard Devin Booker. Expect coach Monty Williams to make adjustments and for Cam Johnson to be ready for the moment. Take the Suns as they live with Brandon Ingram’s high efficiency, but hurt the Pelicans more so on the offensive end.
MILWAUKEE @ CHICAGO | 04/22 | 8:30 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -2.5
ANALYSIS: The Milwaukee Bucks know they could easily be down 0-2. The Bulls flipped a gear in the postseason that the Bucks did not see in blowout regular-season victories over Chicago. Look for the road element to wake up the Bucks, even minus Khris Middleton. Last postseason, coach Mike Budenholzer showcased that he is capable of making the necessary adjustments after the first two games of a series. Play the Bucks.
+540 12-6 IN LAST 18 NBA PICKS
__________________