Monday 4/11/22 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games.
ZITI Sports
NHL
Montreal Canadiens +130 Winnipeg Jets (7:05 PM)
MLB
Colorado Rockies/Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 -120 (4:05 PM)
San Francisco Giants -130 San Diego Padres (9:45 PM)
SOCCER UNDER SYSTEM
Spain - La Liga- Rayo Vallecano vs. Valencia UNDER 2.5 -149 (3:00 PM)
SOCCER OVER SYSTEM
Romania - Liga 1- Fotbal Club FCSB vs. FC Voluntari OVER 2.5 +117 (2:00 PM)
Sweden - Allsvenskan- Malmo FF vs. Elfsborg OVER 2.5 -130 (1:10 PM)
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CleInsiderSports
Soccer - Germany - Osnabruck ML
Soccer - Romainia - FCSB ML
Soccer - Sweden - Malmo ML (1st Half)
Soccer - Turkey - Eyupspor ML (1st Half)
Hockey - Russia - Magnitogorsk ML
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23goals
CHILE: PRIMERA B
San Felipe – San Luis
2 or 3 goals
Odds : 2.00
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suarez1x2 eu
Spanish LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano – Valencia
Valencia +0 @ 2.40
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EdwardMLB
MLB USA – BASEBALL
San Francisco Giants – San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants -1
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Marco D'Angelo
4% Toronto Blue Jays
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Tony Meja
4% Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-105) L Patino (RHP) Must Start
4% Play: Total Over 9.0 (-115) Action - Mariners/Twins
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MLB-Martingale
1 UNIT
Baltimore Orioles - Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles @ 2.40
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Ben Burns
Twins
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AccuScore Picks
4* Guardians vs. Royals Under 8.5
4* Mariners vs.Twins Under 9
3* Red Sox vs. Tigers Over 9.5
3* Mets vs. Phillies Under 9.5
3* Marlins vs. Angels Under 9.5
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CleInsiderSports
Giants ML
Red Sox/Tigers Over 9.5
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Spartan
1* Padres
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Goodfella
Blue Jays 1st 5 Inn
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sean murphy
Milwaukee brewers
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Matt Severance
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 04/11 | 2:10 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY +1.5
ANALYSIS: You ever notice how a game after a team goes offensively bananas that it usually struggles? I'm counting on that for the Indians, err Guardians (this is going to take a while to get used to), after they hung 17 runs on the Royals Sunday. It's Carlos Hernandez on the bump for the Royals. He was 6-2 in 2021 with a 3.68 ERA and will be his his first career start vs. Cleveland after making his MLB debut vs. the Guardians with 3.2 scoreless innings in relief in 2020. Cleveland's Aaron Civale had a 5.73 ERA in two starts last year vs. KC. A handful of Royals have nice splits against him. I was waiting on this to flip to Kansas City +1.5 on the runline and it has temporarily. So I'll pay the tax of -175 before it perhaps flips back to Cleveland +1.5.
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #967 Seattle +110 (Flexen)
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Michael Alexander:
NBA, 04/12 9:35 PM Los Angeles Clippers vs Minnesota Timberwolves
PICK: Minnesota Timberwolves -145 for 2 Units
If this spread ticked up even a point higher, I'd probably take the points. I do think Minnesota wins at home, though. There might be an injury concern for LA with Luke Kennard (11.8 ppg) as well. Since the New Year, the Timberwolves boast the best offensive rating in the NBA. Their starting lineup of D'Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley, Anthony Edwards, Jarred Vanderbilt and Karl-Anthony Towns has a net rating of 12.8, the second-best net rating in the league. The Clippers are seven games under .500 on the road. Minnesota is 11 over at home.
MLB, 04/11 3:05 PM Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles 1.5 for 2 Units
The Orioles aren't going 0-81 at home. Their starting pitcher, Bruce Zimmermann, had a decent 3.89 ERA at Camden Yards in 2021. The Orioles probably will draw flies most of the year but will have a big crowd today. Sometimes it's the little things. I also don't think the Milwaukee lineup is all that great. The Brewers have faced one lefty starter this year and didn't score off the Cubs' Justin Steele. Dating to last regular season, Milwaukee is 1-8 in its past nine on the road.
MLB, 04/11 5:10 PM Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers 1.5 for 2 Units
Boston will be at a decent disadvantage here having to travel late Sunday night after facing the Yankees (letdown game possibility as well). And, who knows, someone could get hurt Sunday, too. Trevor Story was out of the lineup with an illness so perhaps he doesn't play Monday, either. Monday's Sox starter Michael Wacha is nothing special; he had a 5.05 ERA last year with the Rays. Detroit was 2-1 at home vs. Boston in 2021 and is 5-2 in its past seven at home overall vs. a right-handed starter.
MLB, 04/11 6:45 PM New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies -150 for 2 Units
The Mets added a couple right-handed bats in Mark Canha and Starling Marte in the offseason that should help, but they were still ranked 25th in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Both these teams also lost yesterday, so both teams should have just about every bullpen arm available. This is important for the Phillies because they don’t have much depth after their top arms. The Phillies were 47-34 at home last season and they were 6-3 against the Mets at home. Mets were a lowly 30-51 on the road last season despite winning 3 of 4 in Washington to start the season. Ranger Suarez was lowkey one of the best pitchers in the league last season finishing 8-5 with a 1.36 ERA in 106 IP. Taijuan Walker was solid against the Phillies last season, but he was also 3-7 with a 5.82 ERA on the road. Take the Phillies at home.
MLB, 04/11 7:20 PM Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves -173 for 2 Units
I wanna preface this with I have a feeling this line is completely off, but we still have to take advantage while its here. However, Josh Rogers made six starts last season and actually pitching pretty decently. He did have trouble with walks however, and 5 of the 6 teams he faced were in the bottom 10 in wOBA against lefties last season. The Braves were actually ranked just 20th in the league in wOBA against lefties last season, however they added a few key right handed bats in the offseason. I would expect Matt Olson to be the only lefty in the lineup today, and Rogers allowed a .286 BA against righties last season. The Braves won 14 of the 19 games between these teams last season and 6 of the last 7 games between them overall. Huascar Ynoa faced the Nats three times last season and didn’t allow an earned run in the first two while only allowing 2 ER in the third game. Take the Braves at home. This line did rise since I posted as expected, but I would still play it up to -160 or -170.
MLB, 04/11 9:38 PM Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Under 9.5 for 2 Units
The main reason I like this under is because both teams have their top bullpen options available. I don’t completely trust Elieser Hernandez or Michael Lorenzen, but both teams have options to bring players in early if need be. Neither of these teams have been scoring much lately, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a top bat on either side get the day off. I think this ends up around 5-4 at the highest, take the under.
NHL, 04/11 7:05 PM Winnipeg Jets vs Montreal Canadians
PICK: Montreal Canadians 112 for 2 Units
Unfortunately, I don't really see a ton of value at Montreal -210 on the puckline, so we'll try for the outright upset. The Jets are playing the second of a back-to-back and expected to be without two of their top scorers in Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele. They have combined for 124 points. Scheifele is for sure out. Wheeler is doubtful.
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Worlds Worst Picker MLB
Mets
Seattle
We take
Phillies
Twins
He’s lost 6 in a row the fade 6-0 last 6
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The Champ Team
Monday Payday
A Bet 1115am 1952 Cardinals first 5 innings
B Bet 105pm 1972 Texas first 5 innings (if A Bet loses)
C Bet 420pm 956 Braves for the game on the money line
New Regular Evolution Series
MLB St Louis Cardinals as a favorite or +1.5 as an underdog
MLB Selections to Win $150
1115am 1952 Cardinals -189
1205pm 969 Brewers -147
105pm 1972 Texas first 5 innings -141
340pm 964 Tampa Bay -228
405pm 965 Over 9 Toronto
420pm 956 Braves -200
MLB Two Team Parlays Bet $80
1115am 1952 Cardinals -189
1205pm 969 Brewers -147
105pm 1972 Texas first 5 innings -141
340pm 964 Tampa Bay -228
405pm 965 Over 9 on Toronto
420pm 956 Braves -200
Round Robins 2's and a 3 for $20 a way for $80
1115am 1952 Cardinals -189
1205pm 969 Brewers -147
105pm 1972 Texas first 5 innings -141
340pm 964 Tampa Bay -228
405pm 965 Over 9 Toronto
420pm 956 Braves -200
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WUnderdog
mlb
Philadelphia-150 v ny mets
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Justin Perri
TORONTO @ N.Y. YANKEES | 04/11 | 7:05 PM EDT
TORONTO 102
ANALYSIS: Even if Yankees starter Jameson Taillon is good -- and he had a 6.23 ERA against the Blue Jays last year -- he's very unlikely to get deep into the game. The Yankees bullpen is great, but it also went 18 2/3 highly-stressful, high-leverage innings in the last three days against the Red Sox. A dose of the underbelly is coming and the Blue Jays will feast, especially if it's a lefty like J.P. Sears. I really like Jays' starter Alek Manoah, too. They went 16-4 in his starts last season, including winning his last eight. He threw well in two outings against the Yankees last season. Overall, the Blue Jays' offense is more well-rounded and the Yankees' bottom third looks pretty futile. Let's take the road 'dog.
+536 5-0 IN LAST 5 MLB PICKS
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Matt Severance
WINNIPEG @ MONTREAL | 04/11 | 7:00 PM EDT
MONTREAL 125
ANALYSIS: Unfortunately, I don't really see a ton of value at Montreal -210 on the puckline, so we'll try for the outright upset. The Jets are playing the second of a back-to-back and expected to be without two of their top scorers in Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele. They have combined for 124 points. Scheifele is for sure out. Wheeler is doubtful.
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | 04/11 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -110
ANALYSIS: Yeah, this number is going to change drastically. Not really sure why a few books opened this with Atlanta just -110. I think it's because Washington hasn't officially named its starting pitcher, but it apparently will be Josh Rogers due to an injury to Anibal Sanchez. The 27-year-old Rogers has a 5.55 ERA and 1.49 WHIP 14 big-league outings (nine starts) in three major league seasons. Atlanta's Huascar Ynoa was much better at home (2.88 ERA) last year than away.
TORONTO @ N.Y. YANKEES | 04/11 | 7:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES +1.5
ANALYSIS: I understand, I suppose, why the Yankees are home dogs (barely and they might not be much longer) but I'm going to take advantage of it at -165 on the runline because their starting pitcher, Jameson Taillon, was much better at Yankee Stadium than away in 2021. The Bombers will also have closer Aroldis Chapman available after he wasn't going to be Sunday night. Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo are both raking for NYY.
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Matt Severance
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/11 | 6:45 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -140
ANALYSIS: We may have the SL Curse again here as I see two others have taken the Phillies (I only count it as a curse if it's three who aren't me!). I do think they are pretty decent value at -140 -- they were -160 earlier this morning and I'm not really sure why it has dropped. The Mets are sitting one of their hottest hitters in Jeff McNeil, who is batting .438 with a homer and three RBIs. This is more a fade of New York pitcher Taijuan Walker, who was great in the first half of 2021 and then absolutely terrible after. Walker was also much worse away overall (3-7, 5.82 ERA). Philly's Ranger Suarez, a converted reliever, had a microscopic 1.36 ERA (16 ER, 106.0 IP) in 12 starts (27 relief appearances) last season. Philadelphia has won five of the past seven at home in the series.
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John Bollman
FEATURED PICK
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | 04/11 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -110
ANALYSIS: I wanna preface this with I have a feeling this line is completely off, but we still have to take advantage while its here. However, Josh Rogers made six starts last season and actually pitching pretty decently. He did have trouble with walks however, and 5 of the 6 teams he faced were in the bottom 10 in wOBA against lefties last season. The Braves were actually ranked just 20th in the league in wOBA against lefties last season, however they added a few key right handed bats in the offseason. I would expect Matt Olson to be the only lefty in the lineup today, and Rogers allowed a .286 BA against righties last season. The Braves won 14 of the 19 games between these teams last season and 6 of the last 7 games between them overall. Huascar Ynoa faced the Nats three times last season and didn’t allow an earned run in the first two while only allowing 2 ER in the third game. Take the Braves at home. This line did rise since I posted as expected, but I would still play it up to -160 or -170.
MIAMI @ L.A. ANGELS | 04/11 | 9:38 PM EDT
UNDER 9.5
ANALYSIS: The main reason I like this under is because both teams have their top bullpen options available. I don’t completely trust Elieser Hernandez or Michael Lorenzen, but both teams have options to bring players in early if need be. Neither of these teams have been scoring much lately, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a top bat on either side get the day off. I think this ends up around 5-4 at the highest, take the under.
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/11 | 6:45 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -160
ANALYSIS: The Mets added a couple right-handed bats in Mark Canha and Starling Marte in the offseason that should help, but they were still ranked 25th in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Both these teams also lost yesterday, so both teams should have just about every bullpen arm available. This is important for the Phillies because they don’t have much depth after their top arms. The Phillies were 47-34 at home last season and they were 6-3 against the Mets at home. Mets were a lowly 30-51 on the road last season despite winning 3 of 4 in Washington to start the season. Ranger Suarez was lowkey one of the best pitchers in the league last season finishing 8-5 with a 1.36 ERA in 106 IP. Taijuan Walker was solid against the Phillies last season, but he was also 3-7 with a 5.82 ERA on the road. Take the Phillies at home.
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Micah Roberts
SEATTLE @ MINNESOTA | 04/11 | 7:40 PM EDT
OVER 9
ANALYSIS: Chris Flexen was one of the most profitable starters in MLB last season, but spring saw him give up 13 runs over 16 innings between four starts. His control was decent but he still gave up seven homers. I think we’ll see him give up one or two homers before he’s taken out around the fifth inning and provide a head start to get Over the total. A 10 mph breeze out to centerfield will also help. Over is the play.
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