Monday 4/26/21 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games.
Stephen Oh
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 04/26 | 1:10 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY -105
ANALYSIS: My model says the Royals win in over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting solid value with them at this number. Kansas City dominated the first three games of the series, allowing only 13 hits while outscoring Detroit 12-3 en route to three victories. The Royals have won four straight overall while the Tigers have dropped four in a row and nine of 10, scoring fewer than three runs in each of the last eight defeats. Look for the Royals to complete the four-game sweep.
COLORADO @ ST. LOUIS | 04/26 | 7:00 PM EDT
COLORADO -160
ANALYSIS: My model says the Avalanche win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Due to COVID-19 issues, Colorado has played only three game since Apr. 14 - all against the Blues, with two being victories. The Avs have won five of their seven overall meetings with St. Louis this season. Nathan MacKinnon has recorded back-to-back three-point performances and is riding a 13-game point streak during which he's collected eight goals and 16 assists. Look for Colorado to bounce back from just its second regulation loss on 22 games.
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Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider
NHL Big Plays 17-5 Last 22.
NHL
Dallas Stars +115
Winnipeg Jets -108
Winnipeg Jets/Edmonton Oilers Over 6 (BIG PLAY)
Anaheim Ducks +145
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Pickswise Sports
MLB 3* Best Bet - San Francisco Giants -155
NHL Best Bet - Arizona Coyotes -110
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Ben Burns
10* winnipeg-106
10* braves-160
10* twins-115
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Stitches--NY Post. Pulled one out late with the Padres last night. Season record now 11-14.
Monday's play is the Angels.
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Larry Hartstein
MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND | 04/26 | 6:10 PM EDT
MINNESOTA -125
ANALYSIS: Only the Tigers have a worse record than the Twins. But I think today is when Minnesota starts turning it around. The Twins are facing Zach Plesac, who has been shelled in two straight outings. Jose Berrios has a 0.95 WHIP and deserves better than his 2-2 record. Back Minnesota to beat Cleveland for the eighth time in the last 10 meetings.
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NBA SELECTION
Utah Jazz -10
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Matt Severance
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 04/26 | 1:10 PM EDT
DETROIT +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Tigers are short overall underdogs currently but may not be by first pitch in the lone matinee of Monday. So, we will jump on them at +1.5 on the runline (-150) while we can. Kansas City starting pitcher Brad Keller (1-2, 12.00) has been mostly terrible so far. Detroit's Spencer Turnbull isn't much better but was good in his season debut last time out, allowing one run over five. He has a 3.27 ERA in six career starts vs. KC. I have a feeling the Royals will rest a regular or two in this getaway game.
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Stephen Oh
PHOENIX @ NEW YORK | 04/26 | 7:30 PM EDT
PHOENIX -2
ANALYSIS: The Suns are 7-0 ATS (+8.00 ppg) as favorites after a loss in which Devin Booker had a negative plus/minus and 6-0 ATS (13.00 ppg) following a road loss in which Deandre Ayton had a double-double. As a team, Phoenix is 10-0 ATS (+8.35 ppg) with no rest after a road loss in which it led by double digits. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS (-14.50 ppg) with rest following a home contest when they are coming off two games in which they shot better than 50 percent from 3-point range and 0-6 ATS (-9.75 ppg) when the line is within three of pick'em after a double-digit win when they lost two straight against the current opponent. Chris Paul’s veteran leadership should be the deciding factor.
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Mike Barner
L.A. CLIPPERS @ NEW ORLEANS | 04/26 | 8:00 PM EDT
L.A. CLIPPERS -1.5
ANALYSIS: Even without Kawhi Leonard (foot), Los Angeles has played well. He’s missed seven of the team's last eight games, but the Clippers still went 7-1 during that stretch. The Pelicans defeated Los Angeles by 20 points the last time these teams played in New Orleans, but they shot 65.4 percent from the field in that game - including 46.2 percent from beyond the arc. Don’t expect them to replicate that performance. I like the Clippers to pull out the win in the rematch.
MEMPHIS @ DENVER | 04/26 | 9:00 PM EDT
MEMPHIS +4
ANALYSIS: The Grizzlies have been excellent on the road this season, posting a 20-10 record there ATS. They also are 13-6 ATS as road underdogs. Add in the fact the Nuggets will be playing shorthanded and are 13-18 ATS at home, and I’ll take the points.
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Elite Sports Picks
Oakland (Manaea) -115 over Tampa Bay (Hill)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Minnesota (Berrios) -115 over Cleveland (Plesac)
3* Detroit (Turnbull) -105 over Kansas City (Keller)
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National Sports Service
4* San Francisco (Desclafani) -160 over Colorado (Gomber)
3* Miami (Rogers)/Milwaukee (Burnes) UNDER 6.5
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Prime Time Sports
MEMBER PICKS For 04/26/21
4 Unit --> Oakland (Manaea) -115 over Tampa Bay (Hill)
3 Unit --> Atlanta (Morton) -1.5 runs +120 over Chicago Cubs (Davies)
3 Unit --> Philadelphia (Wheeler)/St. Louis (Wainwright) OVER 8
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Marquee Picks® For 04/26/21
4★ Minnesota (Berrios) -115 over Cleveland (Plesac)
3★ Philadelphia (Wheeler)/St. Louis (Wainwright) UNDER 8
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Kyle Akins
OKLAHOMA CITY @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/26 | 7:00 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -11
ANALYSIS: Philadelphia has been struggling against some of the top teams in the league, but Monday's game offers a very different level of competition. With Oklahoma City not trying to win games, the 76ers should be able to get right in a big way. Philadelphia is the large favorite despite having suffered a 132-94 loss at Milwaukee on Saturday. The team shot just 37.8 percent from the field in the setback. The 76ers are 11-0-1 ATS (9.50 ppg) at home after shooting under 40 percent in their previous game.
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MLB SYSTEM
Texas Rangers
Cincinnati Reds
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Scott Spreitzer
Reds U3.5 F5 (4U)
Twins F5 -130 (2U)
Avalanche -160 (3U)
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Below are the Year To Date Records
Elite Sports Service
MLB 10-11/-4.40
NBA 11-5/+5.50
Insider Sports Report
MLB 22-23-1/-23.20
5* 0-2/-12.00
4*9-8/-2.00
3*13-13-1/-9.20
NBA 37-49-1/-51.90
5*1-1/-0.50
4*10-10/-4.00
3*26-38-1/-47.40
Jersey Kid Picks
MLB 55-61/-14.00
MLB Parlay 1-3/-1.75
NBA 70-67/-3.70
NHL 49-42/+3.25
NHL Parlay 5-11/+10.55
Multi Sport Parlay 1-14/-6.32
Nascar 1-12/-18.35
National Sports Service
MLB 26-23/-1.95
5*3-1/+9.00
4*10-8/-1.20
3*13-14/-9.75
NBA 37-43-1/-34.00
5*0-0/+0.00
4*9-11/-12.40
3*28-32/-21.60
Prime Time
MLB 18-27/-49.85
5*1-1/-1.25
4*6-10/-27.00
3*11-16/-21.60
NBA 49-60-1/-46.30
5*2-1/+4.50
4*15-11/+11.60
3*32-48-1/-62.40
Sebastian Sports/Seabass
Free Plays 120-106-2/+1540
MLB Millionaires 24-19-1/+2600
MLB 48-64-1/-8555
MLB Parlay 2-1/+588
Millionaires Club NBA 34-57/-28700
NBA 138-148-1/-11380
Millionaires Club NHL 6-3/+2350
NHL 19-17/+105
Top Rank Sports Picks
MLB 24-16/+14.95
5* 1-2/-7.50
4*13-7/+17.80
3*10-7/+4.80
NBA 46-32-1/+32.40
5*1-0/+5.00
4*13-7/+21.20
3*32-25-1/+13.50
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Gus Augustine
40 Dime
NBA Winner # 4 of 5
Nuggets -4
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John Bollman
PHILADELPHIA @ ST. LOUIS | 04/26 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -105
ANALYSIS: Adam Wainwright is 0-2 with a 5.03 ERA this season but he just pitched seven innings allowing one run in Washington. He is historically better at home and he has a 3.10 ERA lifetime against the Phillies. Zach Wheeler is 1-2 with a 3.80 ERA this season and he has allowed at least three runs in each of his last three games, including allowing three home runs in his last outing. The Cardinals have won three straight and the Phillies are 2-7 on the road.
OAKLAND @ TAMPA BAY | 04/26 | 7:10 PM EDT
OAKLAND -111
ANALYSIS: Sean Manaea is 2-1 with a 3.04 ERA this season and he has thrown three straight quality starts. He is facing Rich Hill who has allowed four runs in each of his first four starts. The Athletics were shut down by lefty John Means and that dropped them to 13th overall in OPS against lefties but Means has been shutting down everyone. The Rays have just the 15th highest OPS in the league against lefties and their bullpen has struggled. Whoever gets to the bullpen first should win this game, and I like the As to do that.
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Hot Shot Sports
MLB
3* #913 Minnesota -125
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Matt Severance
PHILADELPHIA @ ST. LOUIS | 04/26 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS +1.5
ANALYSIS: This moneyline could flip by first pitch to where the Cardinals are favored and thus would not be available at +1.5 on the runline (-170), so let's jump on this now while they are RL underdogs. Philadelphia is terrible on the road this year at 2-7 and remains without second baseman Jean Segura (.333). Zack Wheeler is a solid pitcher but is 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in three career starts vs. the Cards. They go with Adam Wainwright, who has a 7-3 record and 3.10 lifetime ERA against the Phils. Thirteen of his 14 career starts vs. Philadelphia have been 6.0 innings or more with 10 quality starts.
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JERSEY KID PICKS
MLB
Royals-110
Royals Over 8
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Rockdeman Sports
(Underdog of the Day) - Seattle Mariners +150
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The Sports Geek
NBA
Lakers -10
Knicks +3
Jazz -9.5
Grizzlies/Nuggets Over 228
NHL
Montreal Canadiens +120
MLB
Braves/Cubs Under 8.5
Athletics -107
Brewers/Marlins Under 6.5
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Michael Crosson
Vegasinsider NBA
Phoenix Suns vs New York Knicks
TV: NBA TV - Time: 7:40 p.m.
Best Bet - Phoenix Suns -130 (Moneyline)
NBA Player Prop Best Bet - Devin Booker Under 24.5 points [-112]
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Tim Wilkinson
Vegasinsider NBA
Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets
TV; NBA League Pass - Time; 9:10 p.m.
Best Bet - Memphis Grizzlies +4.5
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Joe Williams
Vegasinsider NBA
Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets
TV: NBA League Pass - Time: 9:10 p.m.
Best Bet - Grizzlies/Nuggets Over 228 (BIG PLAY)
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Vince Akins Spotsbook Breakers
MLB Big Plays 2-0 (+200)
MLB
Mariners +160
Braves -190
Dodgers -180
Athletics/Rays Under 8.5 [-113]
All regular plays
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Kevin Davis - BoogieDownPicks
MLB
Orioles +150
Reds 1st 5 innings [+145]
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Pickswise Sports
NBA Best Bets
Heat -6
Cavaliers/Raptors Over 214.5
Suns/Knicks Over 215
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Marco D'angelo
5% NHL Colorado Avalanche -160
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Power Sports
10 gom Tigers
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Aaa
Brewers
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Jack Jones
15 Knicks
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Matt Severance
PHOENIX @ NEW YORK | 04/26 | 7:30 PM EDT
NEW YORK +116
ANALYSIS: We won going against the Suns on Sunday at Brooklyn, and while they are certainly capable of ending the Knicks' nine-game winning streak, we like New York because Phoenix is in the second of a back-to-back and at the end of a very tough five-game road trip through the Eastern Conference. The Suns also are without two key rotation guys in Jae Crowder and Dario Saric, while New York is healthy. With the rest advantage this year, the Knicks are 12-3-1 ATS.
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Jason Sharpe NHL:
3U-San Jose
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BBalfe
Phoe -2.5
Oak -107
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H&H Sports
NBA
3* Clippers -115 (Moneyline)
3* Kings/Mavericks Over 223
2* Wizards +4.5
2* Knicks +3
2* Grizzlies/Nuggets Over 228
1* Cavaliers/Raptors Over 212.5
1* Heat/Bulls Over 205.5
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IC
3 Jets -105...NHL (16-1 Run)
4 Twins -115...MLB
3 Clippers -2...NBA
3 Hanwha -125...KBO (9-1 Run)
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Big Al
5* Utah Jazz
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Matt Severance
This line was -225 when the play was posted.
CHICAGO @ MIAMI | 04/27 | 12:00 AM UTC
MIAMI -185
ANALYSIS: These teams played Saturday in Miami and the Heat blew out to a huge lead and held on for a 106-101 victory playing without Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro (and in the second of a B2B). Dragic will play Monday, but Herro may not. Miami is on a four-game home winning streak overall and looks for the season sweep of Chicago, which remains without Zach LaVine. An NBA team spending two nights in Miami (as the Bulls have done) usually isn't a good thing for that team's next performance if you get my drift.
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Tim Doyle
DALLAS @ SACRAMENTO | 04/26 | 10:00 PM EDT
SACRAMENTO +5.5
ANALYSIS: The Kings have covered four of five games and gave the Warriors all they could handle last night. I know the Mavs got “lucky” catching Anthony Davis in his first two games back. If I had more guts, I'd play the Kings moneyline, but I’ll take the points.
MEMPHIS @ DENVER | 04/26 | 9:00 PM EDT
MEMPHIS +4
ANALYSIS: How great has Memphis been in the month of April? The Grizzlies have road wins at Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Portland twice, Miami and Atlanta and now catch four points with Jaren Jackson Jr. back. This is easy: Rinse and repeat Memphis.