Monday 5/2/22 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games.
The Prez
4% Toronto Maple Leafs -125
4% REGULATION Edmonton Oilers -130
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Andrew McInnis
5% SERIES CAROLINA HURRICANES -115
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Buster Sports
5% SERIES TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +110
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Matt Severance
PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI | 05/02 | 7:30 PM EDT
MIAMI -183
ANALYSIS: Sometimes people give me grief for taking such big favorites. I also want to give you the news when it happens. I got pinged about Joel Embiid being out with an injury a few minutes ago and got this in at this number. You may not. But the Sixers have no shot now so I hope this finds you where you can take advantage on the Game 1/series line.
TAMPA BAY @ TORONTO | 05/02 | 7:30 PM EDT
UNDER 6.5
ANALYSIS: These are two of the best offenses in the league but playoff hockey is usually much, much different -- i.e. lower scoring. Simply out of principle, then, I have to go Under this total well aware that there might be seven goals scored by the mid-second period. If they prove me wrong, so be it. The Leafs could be missing one fairly important player in rookie Michael Bunting (23 goals, 40 assists) so I'm going to steer clear of a pick on the side.
LOS ANGELES @ EDMONTON | 05/02 | 10:00 PM EDT
EDMONTON -192
ANALYSIS: I am beyond glad that the playoffs are here starting Monday so we don't have to deal with those ridiculous shootouts any longer. Pretty sure I set a record for shootout losses -- why I started doing the puckline instead. Will do Edmonton ML here, though. Oilers netminder Mike Smith has won nine straight starts and his team is vastly superior offensively to the Kings.
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Jeff Hochman
TAMPA BAY @ TORONTO | 05/02 | 7:30 PM EDT
TORONTO -125
ANALYSIS: The Maple Leafs match up quite will against Tampa Bay, as they split the four regular-season meetings with their Atlantic Division rival while outshooting the Lightning 148-122. I like the Maple Leafs in Game 1 despite the fact they lost by seven goals when the teams met in late April. Toronto was No. 1 in faceoff winning percentage this season, while Tampa Bay ranked 15th. The Maple Leafs had a plus-324 shot differential, while the Lightning were plus-94. Take the Leafs.
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MLB-Martingale
1 UNITS
Baltimore Orioles – Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins -1.5 @ 2.10
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Carmine Bianco
4%- SERIES Edmonton Oilers -1.5 Games -125
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Ralph Cal Sports (nhl series)
Game: (35) Boston Bruins at (36) Carolina Hurricanes
Date/Time: May 2 2022 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: SERIES Carolina Hurricanes -115
3% SERIES Carolina Hurricanes -115
Game: (37) Tampa Bay Lightning at (38) Toronto Maple Leafs
Date/Time: May 2 2022 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: SERIES LIGHTNING +100
4% SERIES LIGHTNING +100
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Mcinnis (nhl series)
5% NHL SERIES WAGER
Game: Series: (701) BRUINS at (702) HURRICANES
Date/Time: May 2 2022 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: SERIES HURRICANES -115
SERIES CAROLINA HURRICANES -115…(5%)
3% NHL Series Underdog
Game: Series: (705) BLUES at (706) WILD
Date/Time: May 2 2022 9:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: SERIES BLUES +125
SERIES BLUES +125…(3%)
4% NHL East Conf Series Spread
Game: Series: (711) CAPITALS at (712) PANTHERS
Date/Time: May 3 2022 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: DraftKings
Play Rating: 4%
Play: SERIES PANTHERS -1.5 (-150)
SERIES PANTHERS -1.5 (-150)…(4%)
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Leonard (nhl game)
Play #1
Game: (41) Los Angeles Kings at (42) Edmonton Oilers
Date/Time: May 2 2022 10:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: BetOnline
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Los Angeles Kings +173
41 Los Angeles at Edmonton
PLAY LOS ANGELES
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Las Vegas Cris NHL SERIES BETS
3%- HURRICANES -120
3%- LIGHTNING +110
4%- BLUES +130
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ZITI Sports
NHL PLAYOFFS
Toronto Maple Leafs -125 Tampa Bay Lightning (7:30 PM)
St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild OVER 6 -130 (9:30 PM)
NBA PLAYOFFS
Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns OVER 214.5 -110 (10:00 PM)
MLB
New York Yankees -117 Toronto Blue Jays (7:07 PM)
Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 -115 (2:10 PM)
Houston Astros -119 Seattle Mariners (8:10 PM)
SOCCER OVER SYSTEM
Ireland - Division 1- Waterford vs. Athlone OVER 3 -156 (9:00 AM)
England - League 2- Port Vale vs. Newport County OVER 2.5 +116 (10:00 AM)
Germany - Bundesliga- Bayer Leverkusen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt OVER 3 -154 (2:30 PM)
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Tony Mejia $9 MONDAY NBA 5% PLAYOFF WINNER
(521) Philadelphia 76ers at (522) Miami Heat- Total Over 208.5 (-110)
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jim feist
oakland As
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CleInsiderSports
Basketball - NBA - Heat -7
Basketball - NBA - Mavericks/Suns U215
Baseball - MLB - Rays ML
Baseball - MLB - Twins/Orioles U7.5
Hockey - NHL - Kings/Oilers U6
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kelso
25 sixers
25 mavs
15 marlins
15 mets
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Dave Cokin
4%- SERIES Avalanche -2.5 Games +105
SERIES RANGERS -115
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Andy Lang
NBA Play of the Day
4% Tyrese Maxey Over 30' PRA
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John Bollman
KANSAS CITY @ ST. LOUIS | 05/02 | 1:15 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -165
ANALYSIS: The Royals traveled from Kansas City last night for this 12:15 local time game while the Cardinals were at home. Zack Greinke has been very good so far this season but the Royals bullpen behind him is dead last in the league in wOBA. Steven Matz has been decent but he will be facing the 6th worst team in the league in wOBA against lefties. The Cardinals also have the 6th best bullpen behind him. The Cardinals gave key players like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado days off over the weekend so I would expect them to be in the lineup today. Take the Cards at home.
L.A. ANGELS @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 05/02 | 2:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -135
ANALYSIS: This is a Monday day game so get the play in. The White Sox are ranked 2nd in the league in wOBA against lefties. Shohei Ohtani left last night’s game early with an injury and should be out for the day game. Patrick Sandoval pitched 7 innings in his last start but he’s still being stretched out and only pitched 90 pitches in his last game so don't expect that often. He has also yet to allow a run this season, but I think if there’s ever a time to regress it is during a Monday road day game that feels like an 11am game. The Angels bullpen is decimated right now with both Raisel Iglesias and Ryan Tepera pitching 3 of the last 4 days. Take the White Sox at home.
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Matt Severance
TAMPA BAY @ TORONTO | 05/02 | 7:30 PM EDT
UNDER 6.5
ANALYSIS: These are two of the best offenses in the league but playoff hockey is usually much, much different -- i.e. lower scoring. Simply out of principle, then, I have to go Under this total well aware that there might be seven goals scored by the mid-second period. If they prove me wrong, so be it. The Leafs could be missing one fairly important player in rookie Michael Bunting (23 goals, 40 assists) so I'm going to steer clear of a pick on the side.
KANSAS CITY @ ST. LOUIS | 05/02 | 1:15 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -162
ANALYSIS: Kansas City was swept at home over the weekend by the Yankees and managed only six runs in the three-game series. The Royals are batting just .193 with runners in scoring position this year (27th in majors) and slugging .234 in scoring situations, which is last in the majors. Zack Greinke has been solid on the mound so he'll probably keep this close, but we have to lean the Cardinals at home. They start Steven Matz and KC has struggled against southpaws (1-3 record, .217 average, one HR).
L.A. ANGELS @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 05/02 | 2:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -130
ANALYSIS: I don't trust my White Sox all that much right now -- I'll be watching so I can't help myself but bet it -- but they generally do hammer lefties and face one in Patrick Sandoval. It's also a getaway game for the Halos, who probably won't have closer Raisel Iglesias available and are without Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon in the lineup. Pale Hose pitcher Dylan Cease has historically been much better at home and has 2.31 ERA there this year.
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Allie O'Neill
KANSAS CITY @ ST. LOUIS | 05/02 | 1:15 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -161
ANALYSIS: The Cards are starting lefty Steven Matz today. Despite getting off to a bit of an inconsistent start to the season, the Cardinals are still 3-1 in Matz' starts. The Royals struggle against left-handed pitching, and will have to face one a decent St. Louis bullpen. KC’s Zach Greinke might have better stats, but the Royals’ cold bats should offset any starting pitcher advantages. The Royals bullpen is one of the worst in the league and should provide the Cardinals an abundance of opportunities to put up runs if they are unable to do so on Greinke. I’ll lay the juice for the Cards on the money line.
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Matt Severance
ST. LOUIS @ MINNESOTA | 05/02 | 9:30 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS +1.5
ANALYSIS: I probably will jump on most teams in these playoffs getting +1.5 goals at less than -200 -- the Blues are -198. They are clearly good enough to win this game as they won all three in the season series, although the last two went to overtime. Just get me to OT here, that's fine. The Wild are going with Marc-Andre Fleury in net and he was just so-so in his final five starts, allowing at least three goals in all but one. If the Blues score at least three tonight, I'm not losing this bet.
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Dave essler
3* phi +7.5 (-110)
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The Winners Circle – Monday Sports Plays
NBA BASKETBALL
Play Miami -7.5 over Philadelphia
Play Phoenix -5.5 over Dallas
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NHL HOCKEY
Play Carolina -120 over Boston
Play Toronto -130 over Tampa Bay
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MLB BASEBALL
Play Miami -155 over Baltimore
Play St. Louis -165 over Kansas City
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MLBUS
Miami O 6.5
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MLB Under Tips
LAA U 7
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MLB 8
Sea O 8.5
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AccuScore Picks
4* Mavericks +5.5
3*76ers +7.5
3* Mavericks vs. Suns Over 215
4* Blues vs. Wild Over 6.5
4* Kings vs. Oilers Over 6
3* Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Over 6.5
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IC - 7-Unit Play. Take New York Yankees -115 over Toronto Bluejays (Monday @ 7:07pm est)
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #903/904 Braves/Mets OVER 6.5 (Fried/Bassitt)
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Dave Cokin
2%- 1H Total Under 3.0 (+100) Z Gallen (RHP), P Lopez (RHP) Must Start
2%- Atlanta Braves +103 M Fried (LHP), C Bassitt (RHP) Must Start
2%- Seattle Mariners +124 M Gonzales (LHP), J Odorizzi (RHP) Must Start
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VSiN Hosts & Guests
THE LOOKAHEAD
Dave Tuley
Diamondbacks (+130) at Marlins
Mavericks (+6) at Suns
Grizzlies (+2) vs Warriors (Tues)
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Mitch Moss
White Sox 1st 5 (-.5) vs Angels
Pauly Howard
Maple Leafs vs Lightning 1st Period Over 1.5
A NUMBERS GAME
Paul Carr
Brentford +0.5 v Man United (+110)
Jonathan Von Tobel
Bucks +4 v Celtics
Andy MacNeil
Lightning +110 over Maple Leafs
Lightning Series Price +100 over Maple Leafs
Bruins Series Price +100 over Hurricanes
Blues +130 Series Price over Wild
Blues +115 over Wild
Flames -1.5 Games over Stars
Wes Reynolds
Bucks -135 Series vs. Celtics
Sixers +7.5 at Heat
Bruins +100 Series vs. Hurricanes
Bruins +105 at Hurricanes
Lightning +100 Series vs. Maple Leafs
Rangers -110 Series vs. Penguins
Blues +130 Series vs. Wild
Blues +115 at Wild
Kings/Oilers UN 6.5 -115
Braves +104 at Mets
Blue Jays +111 vs. Yankees
White Sox -121 vs. Angels
Paul Sporer
Angels +130 over White Sox
Rays -155 over A's
THE EDGE
Jonathan Von Tobel
76ers (+7.5) vs Heat
Mavericks (+6) vs Suns
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Doug Upstone
2 Unit Play. Take #524 Phoenix -3 (1st Half) over Dallas (10:05 p.m. ET, Monday, May 2)
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Matt Snyder
ATLANTA @ N.Y. METS | 05/02 | 7:10 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -115
ANALYSIS: This is an excellent pitching matchup. Max Fried has great history against the Mets and we know how good the Braves' bullpen can be. A Braves pick would be defensible. I like the Mets, though. They have been so consistent this season, winning all seven of their series. They are 7-3 at home and didn't have to travel like the Braves did from Texas. The Braves have never seen Mets starter Chris Bassitt and in general just aren't playing that well.
MINNESOTA @ BALTIMORE | 05/02 | 7:05 PM EDT
MINNESOTA -145
ANALYSIS: The Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball, but this isn't really a "hot hand" pick. The Twins are a far superior team and they really have something going with their starting pitching. Even a fill-in on Sunday dazzled against the Rays. Monday's starter, Chris Paddack, has a 2.53 ERA with 10 strikeouts against one walk in his last two starts (10 2/3 innings) and looks like he was a change-of-scenery guy after his time in San Diego. Orioles starter Tyler Wells was good last time out, but he won't last long and the Orioles' bullpen isn't very good or deep. Keep an eye on Carlos Correa, as he's just starting to heat up.
+1329 20-7 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS
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Zack Cimini
FEATURED PICK
DALLAS @ PHOENIX | 05/02 | 10:00 PM EDT
PHOENIX -5.5
ANALYSIS: Game 1 will take place between the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns on Monday. It’s a matchup the Suns have dominated by winning nine straight, including all three this season by seven points or more. Expect Phoenix to be prepared to limit Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson’s production, and to play like a top seed.
+930 17-7 IN LAST 24 NBA PICKS
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Mike Barner
DALLAS @ PHOENIX | 05/02 | 10:00 PM EDT
DALLAS +5.5
ANALYSIS: Even with Luka Doncic missing time at the beginning of the series, the Mavericks dispatched the Jazz in the first round. They covered the spread for all three games they played in Utah, even winning one game outright in which they were 8.5-point underdogs. That came on the heels of them going 24-17 ATS on the road during the regular season. With Doncic healthy, and the team firing on all cylinders right now, look for them to cover again.
+930 66-51-2 IN LAST 119 NBA PICKS
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John Bollman
ARIZONA @ MIAMI | 05/02 | 6:40 PM EDT
MIAMI -165
ANALYSIS: I think there is an overreaction in the market to the Diamondbacks after winning a series over the Dodgers then splitting a 4-game series with the Cardinals. The Marlins have won 8 of their last 10 games now and they improved to 6-4 at home. They are also ranked 5th in the league in wOBA against righties while the Dbacks are ranked 23rd. Both Pablo Lopez and Zac Gallen have been dominant to start the season, but the difference is the Marlins have the 11th ranked bullpen in the league backing Lopez up while the Dbacks have the 4th worst bullpen in the league. Take the Marlins at home.
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Matt Severance
ARIZONA @ MIAMI | 05/02 | 6:40 PM EDT
MIAMI -159
ANALYSIS: I really haven't been backing the Marlins much this season because I thought their offense would stink. And it's not great, but Arizona as a team is hitting below the Mendoza Line so we have to back the Fish behind Pablo Lopez, who is 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA and has had 18.1 consecutive scoreless innings. Needless to say, he's not that good. No one is. But I'll take my chances today. Maybe Miami's best hitter, Jazz Chisholm, is back in the lineup after not starting Sunday (he pinch-hit) with stomach distress (i.e., he had the rhea).
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