Saturday 7/16/22 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL, NCAAF & WNBA games.
Steve Fezzik
CFL
3* SAS-TOR o45
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Jimmy Adams
5%
(969) Seattle Mariners at (970) Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners -135 L Gilbert (RHP) Must Start
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Andrew McInnis
UFC
5% Brian Ortega -170
CFL
5% Hamilton Tiger-Cats 1H -4 (-115)
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Tomas Sports
Seattle ml
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11th Hour Sports Picks
MLB:
3u 962 SFO -135 (F5).
3u 969 SEA -135.
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Carmine Bianco
3% D.C. United at Minnesota United
Minnesota United -143
3% Los Angeles Galaxy at Colorado
Total Over 3.0 (-110)
3% Toronto FC at CF Montreal
Total Over 3.0 (-120)
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JR Sports
Tate/Ortega Parlay
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The Winners Circle – Saturday Sports Plays
MLB BASEBALL
Play New York Yankees -165 over Boston
Play San DIego -190 over Arizona
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Stephen Oh
SEATTLE @ TEXAS | 07/16 | 4:05 PM EDT
TEXAS 118
ANALYSIS: I realize Seattle has won 12 straight games, but that's exactly why you're getting such a good price on the Rangers. Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has given up four earned runs in two of his last three starts and hasn't gone beyond six innings since May. My simulations say Texas wins almost 50 percent of the time, so you're getting good value at this number.
+1216 37-28 IN LAST 65 SEA ML PICKS
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Jon Eimer:
CR Flamengo RJ vs. Coritiba Foot Ball Club (Saturday, 6 p.m. ET)
Flamengo 1st team to score 1st half -135. 1u
Over 2.5 goals -130 1u
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Kyle Marley
Brian Ortega (-160) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+140): Ortega
Both fighters are well-rounded, but I favor Ortega on the ground and Rodriguez on the feet. Ortega has landed multiple takedowns in his last three fights and almost everyone Rodriguez has fought has taken him down. Ortega's edge on the ground should be much greater than Rodriguez's edge on the feet. I will pick Ortega by submission, but this could be a close call if it goes the distance.
Amanda Lemos (-335) vs. Michelle Waterson (+275): Waterson
Lemos is the better striker, but her big advantage is her power. If she doesn't get a knockout, I don't see her looking like this big of a favorite. Waterson can keep this fight close volume-wise in the striking department and she can win it on the mat. If Waterson can mix in takedowns, she is a live underdog and I will pick her in the upset.
Muslim Salikhov (-165) vs. Li Jingliang (+145): Jingliang
Salikhov is a good striker with a lot of power and spinning techniques. He does not have a lot of volume and Jingliang has never been knocked out. I favor Jingliang on the ground and he is also the higher-volume striker. He can win this fight on the feet. I like the underdog in this matchup.
Su Mudaerji (-255) vs. Matt Schnell (+215): Mudaerji
I really like Mudaerji's striking game and he should dominate a pure match. Schnell is a decent striker himself but his edge is on the ground. He is a live underdog if he can mix in takedowns, and he could submit Mudaerji in any round. But I will pick Mudaerji to get a knockout.
Shane Burgos (-160) vs. Charles Jourdain (+140): Burgos
Jourdain is the flashier striker and he might have more one-punch power. I like the overall striking game from Burgos, who should be the one pushing forward and setting the pace. On average, he lands more than two significant strikes per minute more than Jourdain and that is how I see him winning this fight. He could get a stoppage, but I will take him to win a decision.
Miesha Tate (-210) vs. Lauren Murphy (+180): Tate
Tate's wrestling is why I am going to pick her. If the striking is close, maybe it only takes one takedown to steal the round. Tate is the better wrestler-grappler, and if she can mix that into her game plan, I like her to win a decision. The decision prop would provide better odds.
Punahele Soriano (-240) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (+200): Soriano
Lungiambula is a strong fighter, and it could only take one big shot for him to get a stoppage. He can mix in takedowns as well, but I don't see him landing more than a couple. Soriano looks like he is the better striker with more output. He has a wrestling background, so I think he can win this fight anywhere. I will pick him to win by early knockout.
Jack Shore (-170) vs. Ricky Simon (+150): Shore
This is an awesome matchup between two high-paced fighters. Both combatants are excellent wrestlers who can land takedowns. If Simon wins this fight, I expect it to be a decision stemming from multiple takedowns and a lot of ground control time. But I like Shore because the wrestling looks like a wash, but Shore is the better grappler and submission artist. I also like Shore while this fight is on the feet, so he just has more ways to win.
Bill Algeo (-185) vs. Herbert Burns (+165): Algeo
Burns is the better grappler and Algeo does not have great takedown defense. Burns could get an early takedown and lock up a submission and look dominant. If he doesn't get that early submission, then I expect Algeo to take over and win a decision. I'll side with the favorite.
Dustin Jacoby (-120) vs. Da Un Jung (+100): Jacoby
Jacoby is the much better striker offensively and better defensively. I expect him to pick Jung apart on the feet. Jung should look to wrestle, but I don't see him having much success because he is mostly a striker himself. Give me Jacoby in a dominant decision.
Dwight Grant (-140) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+120): Stoltzfus
Grant has big power, and he could land a knockout in any round. But he is a low-output striker and I favor Stoltzfus in a striking-based decision. He could get there just by landing more than 50 significant strikes, which Grant has never done in his UFC career. I like the ground game even more for Stoltzfus and he could win with a submission or use takedowns and top control time to put his stamp on rounds.
Emily Ducote (-140) vs. Jessica Penne (+120): Ducote
Penne is an experienced veteran and, if she can get this fight to the mat, she is live for a submission. But She isn't a good wrestler and, if Ducote can keep this fight on the feet, I like her to control the action and win a decision.
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John Eimer:
CHIVAS GUADALAJARA at SANTOS LAGUNA | 7/16 | 8:05 p.m. ET
Picks:
Santos Laguna +135 (1 unit)
Under 2.5 goals -150 (1 unit)
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Ashley covers
mlb:
Mariners moneyline
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Marco D'Angelo
4%
(969) Seattle Mariners at (970) Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners -136 L Gilbert (RHP), S Howard (RHP) Must Start
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Jimmy Adams
3%
(957) Atlanta Braves at (958) Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-143) M Fried (LHP) Must Start
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Micah Roberts
SEATTLE @ TEXAS | 07/16 | 4:05 PM EDT
SEATTLE -145
ANALYSIS: The Mariners have won 12 straight and are in line for an AL wild-card berth. They have Logan Gilbert on the mound Saturday, and the Mariners have won four straight behind him, and 13 of his 18 starts. It has been a fun year for him, as he has a 2.89 ERA and is 25-1 to win the AL Cy Young Award. Texas has lost four of its last six games. Rangers starter Spencer Howard has allowed 12 runs over his three starts. Mariners to win.
+2768 57-30 IN LAST 87 MLB ML PICKS
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Max Gorenstein
N.Y. METS @ CHI. CUBS | 07/16 | 2:20 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -130
ANALYSIS: This line doesn't make sense. The Mets, who are 28-19 on the road, are only slight favorites against the Cubs, who are on a seven game losing streak. Mets starter Taijuan Walker has a 7-2 record with a 2.63 ERA. Walker is rolling. Over his last six starts he has a 4-0 record and a 1.85 ERA. The Cubs are 2-8 in Marcus Stroman's 10 starts this season. I love this line with the Mets.
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Matt Severance
PITTSBURGH @ COLORADO | 07/16 | 3:10 PM EDT
COLORADO -135
ANALYSIS: I'm actually starting to get aggravated that I'm still not on the Mariners/Orioles gravy train like everyone else is. I must have bad memories in Seattle (wore an awful flannel shirt that still itches) and Baltimore (yakked on soft shell crab) but whatever. I still can't do it. Murphy's Law or Occam's Razor or the such. Will, though, keep riding the Rox at home as they are just mashing. Bucs starter Mitch Keller has a 5.06 road ERA.
ARIZONA @ SAN DIEGO | 07/16 | 8:40 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -190
ANALYSIS: Little pricy but Sean Manaea has a 2.37 ERA in 19 innings vs. the Snakes this year and Arizona is starting awful lefty Tyler Gilbert (0-3, 5.33), also the name of the llama in Napoleon Dynamite. Actually it was Tina but my point is made. Gilbert is llama-esque.
CINCINNATI @ ST. LOUIS | 07/16 | 2:15 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -170
ANALYSIS: Some drama in this matchup on Friday with Genesis Cabrera, and yes I just like saying that name. I have many jokes -- pretty sure was a confidential informant in Hunter, for example, and I didn't even watch Hunter but I know that! Also think a character on the Fall Guy; if you have never seen Fall Guy you got issues (actually probably terrible if I watched it now) -- but none PG-13 so I'll just hold off. This price seems pretty low behind Cards starter Miles Mikolas. The one good thing about the break coming up is that no regulars should be rested in a day game after a night one.
CHI. WHITE SOX @ MINNESOTA | 07/16 | 2:10 PM EDT
MINNESOTA -125
ANALYSIS: I am definitely slumping a bit, but I want to end the first half on a winning note so will make a couple today and then see you next week. No, I don't care nor will watch the Home Run Derby. Every time Chris Berman says "back back back" I wanna cough up Cheerios, and I haven't had cereal since college (ever had a word you can't spell? I cannot spell cereal without looking it up). I will say this: Sunday might be the most unpredictable day of the season so be very careful. I am a Sox fan and Lance Lynn frankly stinks. Think they rushed him back from injury. That I'm backing Dylan Bundy makes me cringe but that's how little I think of Lynn ... which I believe was a song by the Cranberries. -125 is worth the risk.
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John Bollman
SEATTLE @ TEXAS | 07/16 | 4:05 PM EDT
SEATTLE -145
ANALYSIS: Gilbert has been dominant this season and allowed just 1 ER in 12 IP to the Rangers. Spencer Howard will go as deep as possible, but this will end up being mostly a bullpen game for the Rangers again and their bullpen has struggled at 22nd in the past 30 days. The Mariners have won 12 in a row now and they have the best bullpen in the league the past 30 days. I think they sort of see a finish line too with the All-Star break coming up so they only need to put together a couple more wins. I like the Mariners to stay hot.
PITTSBURGH @ COLORADO | 07/16 | 3:10 PM EDT
COLORADO -130
ANALYSIS: Both Mitch Keller and Jose Urena have actually pitched pretty well lately. The Rockies lineup has been really good though lately and they are 11-5 in their last 16 home games. The Pirates are 18-30 on the road this season. The Pirates are also dead last in the league in bullpen ERA the last 30 days. I like the Rockies to stay hot at home.
N.Y. METS @ CHI. CUBS | 07/16 | 2:20 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -130
ANALYSIS: Marcus Stroman will face his old team in the Mets today, and he will be making just his second start since returning from the IL. He pitched well in his first start, but he only went 4 innings, so I expect at least 3-4 innings of bullpen today for a Cubs bullpen that has been struggling. Taijuan Walker has quietly been one of the better starters in the league this season, and he has pitched six straight quality starts. The Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 games while the Mets are 7-4 in that same time span including 5-2 on the road. The Mets were also able to save all their top bullpen arms two days ago in the blowout so they are well rested. Take the Mets on the road.
+993 12-2 IN LAST 14 MLB ML PICKS
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Gambling God Sports Picks
2022 MLB SEASON 104-69 +8.4 units 60.1% winners
July 16-16 -8.8 units
yesterday 1-1 -0.8 unit
MLB
St.louis
Colorado
July free picks 8-5 -1.25 units
free pick los angeles dodgers
Sports Handicapper King
MLB 2022 SEASON 80-67 -16.50 units 54.4% winners
July 17-17 -9 units
yesterday 1-1 +2 units
MLB
Tampa Bay
Cleveland
July free plays 10-3 +3.85 units
Free play Atlanta Braves
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Jim Feist
MLB
3* #971 Baltimore +105
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Bob Balfe:
MLB
4:10 PM EST
Rotation #959
Phillies -115 over Marlins
Suarez/Meyer
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Goodfella
1* Orioles +1/2 1st H
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Scott Spreitzer
Montreal -160 - 3 Way Wager
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Mr. Pockets
10 Unit - Los Angeles Angels
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Nover
2* Red Sox
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King Creole
3* NYY OVER 8.5
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Adam Trigger
Rangers +1.5 (4%)
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11th Hour Sports Picks
MLB 4u 953 Mets -135 Game 1
3u 969/970 Sea/tex OVER 8 (-115).
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John Bollman
BOSTON @ N.Y. YANKEES | 07/16 | 7:15 PM EDT
OVER 8.5
ANALYSIS: Nick Pivetta and Jameson Taillon both struggled last rotation turn against these exact same teams, they allowed 6 ER each. The Yankees will either have multiple pitchers unavailable or totally worked with Wandy Peralta, Michael King and Clay Holmes pitching three of the last four nights. These teams know each other so well, I think it could be another back-and-forth game like last night. The last five games between these teams have gone over this total.
PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI | 07/16 | 4:10 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -110
ANALYSIS: This line has come all the way down to a pick ‘em against a guy making his debut, so I have to go for it. Ranger Suarez had been pitching much better before he landed on the IL and he will be facing the worst team in the league in wOBA against lefties. Max Meyer is the Marlins second best prospect. He can run it up to 100mph, although he sits around 94-95, and he has a wipeout slider that should have success against the Phillies righties, at least the first time through the order. However, it is still his first Major League start so he will have a tough time containing his emotions. He probably won’t get deep in the game either. Alec Bohm is also back in the lineup, I like the Phillies to win this series.
BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY | 07/16 | 4:10 PM EDT
BALTIMORE 105
ANALYSIS: Dean Kremer has been very good this season outside of one start, and that includes 6 scoreless innings against the Rays. Ryan Yarbrough has really struggled this season and especially lately. The Orioles had an off day two days ago so their bullpen is completely available while the Rays bullpen is very worked after a bunch of close games with the Red Sox. I like the Orioles to force a rubber game.
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Max Gorenstein
BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY | 07/16 | 4:10 PM EDT
BALTIMORE 100
ANALYSIS: After losing their 10-game win streak yesterday, they should bounce back today. Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough has been terrible. In his last three starts he is 0-3 with an 8.56 ERA. Orioles have Dean Kremer on the mound today. Kremer has pitched four shutouts in his last five starts, including a start with six shutout innings against the Rays. Rolling with the Orioles at plus money.
SEATTLE @ TEXAS | 07/16 | 4:05 PM EDT
SEATTLE -145
ANALYSIS: Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has a 10-3 record with a 2.80 ERA, 15th in MLB. Gilbert has two starts vs the Rangers this season, he pitched a total of 12.2 innings and only allowed one total run and the Mariners won both games. The Mariners have torched the Rangers bullpen in the first two games of this series scoring nine runs over the eight innings against Rangers relievers. In Spencer Howard's 11 career starts for the Rangers, he has a 1-3 record with a ridiculously high 9.18 ERA. Mariners should easily extend their win streak to 13 games.
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Jeff Hochman
PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI | 07/16 | 4:10 PM EDT
MIAMI -110
ANALYSIS: The Marlins will start rookie right-hander Max Meyer, who ranks No. 21 among MLB's top 100 prospects. Meyer has a plus fastball (92-98 mph) and the best slider coming out of the 2020 class. Miami hasn't lost two in a row to the Phillies in quite some time. Philadelphia is ranked No. 26 in defensive runs saved (-20), while the Marlins are No. 10 (+20). Light play on the home team!
+410 5-1 IN LAST 6 MLB PICKS
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