Sunday 7/26/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games.
Gjelstad and Norheim
Soccer
Moneyline
Sunday, July 26
Newcastle v. Liverpool (11 a.m. ET)
Money line: Liverpool -260
Total goals: Under 3.5
Likely score: Liverpool 2, Newcastle 0
Crystal Palace v. Tottenham (11 a.m. ET)
Money line: Tottenham -190
Total goals: Over 2.5
Likely score: Tottenham 2, Crystal Palace 1
Burnley v. Brighton & Hove Albion (11 a.m. ET)
Money line: Burnley +129
Total goals: Under 2.5
Likely score: Burnley 1, Brighton 0
Arsenal v. Watford (11 a.m. ET)
Money line: Arsenal -111
Total goals: Over 2.5
Likely score: Arsenal 2, Watford 1
Chelsea v. Wolves (11 a.m. ET)
Money line: Draw +270
Total goals: Under 2.5
Likely score: Chelsea 1, Wolves 1
Everton v. Bournemouth (11 a.m. ET)
Money line: Everton +123
Total goals: Over 2.5
Likely score: Everton 2, Bournemouth 1
Southampton v. Sheffield United (11 a.m. ET)
Money line: Draw +245
Total goals: Under 2.5
Likely score: Southampton 1, Sheffield United 1
Manchester City v. Norwich City (11 a.m. ET)
Money line: Manchester City -1500
Total goals: Under 4.5
Likely score: Manchester City 3, Norwich City 0
Leicester City v. Manchester United (11 a.m. ET)
Money line: Manchester United +110
Total goals: Over 2.5
Likely score: Manchester United 2, Leicester City 1
West Ham v. Aston Villa (11 a.m. ET)
Money line: Draw +260
Total goals: Over 2.5
Likely score: West Ham 2, Aston Villa 2
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Strike Point Sports
soccer
7 Manchester United+120
3 draw +250 in same game
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Stephen Oh
OAKLAND +109
L.A. ANGELS @ OAKLAND | 7/26 | 4:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:21 PM
My model says the A's win almost 60 percent of simulations so you're getting good value with Oakland at this price. The A's are set to face Shohei Ohtani, who will make his first appearance on the mound since Sept. 2, 2018. Meanwhile Oakland will start Mike Fiers, who went 3-0 with a 3.04 ERA in four starts against the Angels last season. Take the A's.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +117
14-8 IN LAST 22 LAA ML PICKS | +552
24-18 IN LAST 42 OAK ML PICKS | +490
COLORADO +129
COLORADO @ TEXAS | 7/26 | 2:35 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:49 PM
The Rockies are winning about half of my simulations, making them a strong play at this underdog price. Look for Colorado to have success against Rangers newcomer Corey Kluber, who is making his first start in nearly 15 months after recovering from a broken right forearm.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +117
38-22 IN LAST 60 COL ML PICKS | +1886
22-15 IN LAST 37 TEX ML PICKS | +1192
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SDQL
FEATURED PICK
BOSTON -203
BALTIMORE @ BOSTON | 7/26 | 1:35 PM EDT
10:31 AM
Baltimore embarrassed Boston yesterday, going up 5-0 after two innings and coasting home with a 7-2 win as a huge underdog. The SDQL tells us that the Orioles are 0-23 as a 110-plus dog in the last game of a road series when they are off a game in which they scored first. Continuing to research this situation we find that the Red Sox are 20-0 as a 200-plus favorite when they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss by three or more runs. Baltimore should have a defeatist attitude here. Boston has the value.
5-0 IN LAST 5 MLB PICKS | +500
CINCINNATI -199
DETROIT @ CINCINNATI | 7/26 | 1:10 PM EDT
10:33 AM
Detroit was down 3-1 going into the seventh inning yesterday, but came back to win 6-4. The Tigers, like many bad teams, do poorly in this spot. The SDQL tells us that the Tigers are 0-15 as a 170-plus dog when they are off a come-from-behind win and it is not a series opener. The Tigers have lost these 15 games by an average of 4.20 runs. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is a reliable 13-0 as a 125-plus favorite in the last game of a home series when coming off a game in which it allowed at least a dozen hits. We are on Cincinnati.
5-0 IN LAST 5 MLB PICKS | +500
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Brian Bitler
10* Twins (MLB Executive Info)
10* Mets (ESPN GOM)
9* Oakland A's (MLB Ticket)
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Cajun Sports
8* AL Diamond Club Insider
Twins
ANALYSIS: (2:10PM EST) The Minnesota Twins are in the Second City playing a three-game weekend set against the host Chicago White Sox to open the abbreviated 2020 baseball campaign. Both teams have taken a victory winning 10 to 5 in both cases this contest will decide the series champ. The Twins opened the season with a 10 to 5 victory over the Sox on Friday night and Chicago bounced back Saturday with their own 10 to 5 series victory. The oddsmakers have made the Twins and Kenta Maeda -134 favorites in this contest. We know Minnesota is 34-13 SU (72.3%) (+965) when installed as chalk. They are also a money-making 295-342 SU (+3761) when playing away from the Twin Cities. Combine those and we find the Twins in a 67.4 percent winning situation as road favorites having posted a record of 95-46 SU for a profit of +3302 units. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.45 runs. Our next set of metrics look at the overall Starting Pitchers Power Ratings for today's contest. The Twins Kenta Maeda comes in with an average of 112 while the Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez comes in with an average of 90 compared to the league average of 100. We want our starter to have an average above the league average if possible and in this case, we do, and our opponent has a starter below the league average of 100 which is a bonus. The SPMatrix has Kenta Maeda with an average of 6.96 compared to Reynaldo Lopez who has an average of 4.18. Our BHOR Matrix (Bases, Hits, Outs, Runs) has a projected run advantage of 1.58 in favor of the Twins. We want to Play ON MLB road favorites of -120 or more with a starter who has a 2.15 or better SPMatrix average versus the opposing starter in today’s matchup along with a Pitcher Power Rating advantage of at least 15 points. This situation has produced a record of 325-221 SU (62.2%) (+2519) including a record of 19-7 SU the last twenty-six qualifying contests. With significant support on the bump, key index average advantages and a qualified power system all pointing to Minnesota we will lay the chalk on Sunday with the Twins in the Second City as they take their opening series of the 2020 campaign.
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Adam Goodwyn
ARIZONA +106
ARIZONA @ SAN DIEGO | 7/26 | 4:10 PM EDT
11:26 AM
I have been on the Diamondbacks this entire series. I think they finally get one here today. My model has them winning 51.9 percent of the time. The spread translates to a win percentage of roughly 48, so you are getting solid value at this price. If the line doesn't swing and make the Diamondbacks the favorites throughout the day, I would take them here.
OAKLAND -107
L.A. ANGELS @ OAKLAND | 7/26 | 4:10 PM EDT
11:11 AM
I like the Athletics here. My model has Oakland winning 55.77 percent of the time. The spread translates to a win percentage of roughly 50, so you are getting a five-percent edge here. I like the A's to take the series and spoil Shohei Ohtani's season debut.
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The Spot Player
2* Phoenix Suns +5
2* Atlanta Dream +4
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Gjelstad and Norheim
MLS Soccer
Moneyline Plays
W/L 4-13 Units 4.6 - 13.9 Net -9.3 Thru 7/16
W/L 11-23 Units 15.3 - 23.9 Net -8.6 39% Thru 7/24
Sunday, July 26
Toronto FC v. NYCFC (8:30 p.m. ET)
Money line: Draw +275 (after 90 minutes of play)
Total goals: Under 2.5
Likely score: Toronto FC 1, NYCFC 1
Sporting KC v. Vancouver Whitecaps (11 p.m. ET)
Money line: Sporting KC
Total goals: Over 2.5
Likely score: Sporting KC 2, Vancouver Whitecaps 1
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ATS
4 reds over
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