Tuesday 4/12/22 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games
Jeff Hochman
10* NHL Game of Year
Carolina Hurricanes -125
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ZITI Sports
NBA PLAYOFFS
Los Angeles Clippers vs Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 230.5 -110 (9:35 PM)
MLB
Chicago White Sox -122 Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM)
Colorado Rockies +133 Texas Rangers (8:05 PM)
Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees OVER 10 -105 (7:05 PM)
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 -115 (9:40 PM)
NHL
St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins OVER 6 -110 (7:05 PM)
Carolina Hurricanes -125 New York Rangers (7:05 PM)
Philadelphia Flyers vs Washington Capitals OVER 6 -120 (7:05 PM)
New Jersey Devils vs Arizona Coyotes OVER 6 -120 (10:05 PM)
SOCCER OVER SYSTEM
Australia - A League- Melbourne Victory vs. Brisbane Roar OVER 2.5 -119 (5:05 AM)
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CleInsiderSports
Soccer - South Africa - Mamelodi ML (1st Half)
Soccer - Egypt - Zamalek ML (1st Half)
Soccer - South America - Boca Juniors ML (1st Half)
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The Prez
4% REGULATION Nashville Predators -120
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Carmine Bianco
3% Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks
Los Angeles Kings -145
3% Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals
REGULATION Washington Capitals -155
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Tomas Sports
Clippers ml
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MLBTOTAL
Chicago White Sox – Seattle Mariners
Over 9.5
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23goals
COLOMBIA Primera A
Bucaramanga vs Cortulua
2 or 3 goals
Odds : 2.00
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Michael Alexander:
NBA, 04/12 9:35 PM Los Angeles Clippers vs Minnesota Timberwolves
PICK: Minnesota Timberwolves -145 for 2 Units
If this spread ticked up even a point higher, I'd probably take the points. I do think Minnesota wins at home, though. There might be an injury concern for LA with Luke Kennard (11.8 ppg) as well. Since the New Year, the Timberwolves boast the best offensive rating in the NBA. Their starting lineup of D'Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley, Anthony Edwards, Jarred Vanderbilt and Karl-Anthony Towns has a net rating of 12.8, the second-best net rating in the league. The Clippers are seven games under .500 on the road. Minnesota is 11 over at home.
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Andy Lang
NBA Play of the Day
4% Cavaliers/Nets - Darius Garland Over 25' Points (-110)
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Line Sniper - Red Dave
Yesterday 1-1
Running Results: 174-166 (51%)
Running MLB Results: 3-4 (-1.4 units)
NBA Top Play: Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5
MLB Play: Detroit Tigers +110
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Dave Cokin
5% SF Giants ML (F5) -108
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Totalmatchvip
SAUDI ARABIA: DIVISION 1
Al Ain – Al-Nahda
Over 2 @ 1.80
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greenpunter us
Philadelphia Phillies - New York Mets
New York Mets
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Matt Severance
SEATTLE @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 04/12 | 4:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -128
ANALYSIS: It's the White Sox's home opener Tuesday and they are so thin in the rotation due to injury that they have to start Vince Velasquez. Seattle might actually have the pitching edge here in rookie Matt Brash, the team's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2021 and ranked as the No. 98 prospect in the sport. He also has never pitched above Double-A. Plus, it's a tough ask for Seattle to travel late Monday night from Minnesota and then have to play a matinee. Chicago had Monday off so will have a full bullpen behind VV. The Sox were second in the majors in home wins last year. This is too cheap of a price not to take.
BOSTON @ DETROIT | 04/12 | 1:10 PM EDT
DETROIT +1.5
ANALYSIS: Tuesday will be the Red Sox's fifth straight game without a day off, and while that doesn't sound like much, I get the feeling Alex Cora will rest a regular or two with the early start -- plus, Trevor Story remains away from the team with an illness. We won on Tigers RL in this matchup Monday and will thus go right back to it. Detroit starter Tyler Alexander had a serviceable 3.81 ERA last year. The Sox start 85-year-old Rich Hill (not really 85 but sure feels like it). Can't imagine Hill is out there long at his age (42). He was blistered in his final spring start. Tigers RL at -140.
CLEVELAND @ BROOKLYN | 04/12 | 7:00 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +8.5
ANALYSIS: Still no Ben Simmons for the Nets and probably no Jarrett Allen for the Cavs -- maybe Allen's "doubtful" status is a smokescreen? Regardless, I think this spread is too high. Do I expect the Nets to win? Sure. But the Cavs are a vastly better defensive team than the Nets with Evan Mobley back (and even more so if Allen can get out there even for 15 game minutes). Brooklyn was the second-worst ATS team in the NBA during the regular season. I'm also not sure how healthy Seth Curry (ankle soreness) will be, although he'll play. Goran Dragic (health protocols) is in question for Brooklyn.
+2572 96-53-1 IN LAST 150 NBA PICKS
L.A. CLIPPERS @ MINNESOTA | 04/12 | 9:30 PM EDT
MINNESOTA -140
ANALYSIS: If this spread ticked up even a point higher, I'd probably take the points. I do think Minnesota wins at home, though. There might be an injury concern for LA with Luke Kennard (11.8 ppg) as well. Since the New Year, the Timberwolves boast the best offensive rating in the NBA. Their starting lineup of D'Angelo Russell, Patrick Beverley, Anthony Edwards, Jarred Vanderbilt and Karl-Anthony Towns has a net rating of 12.8, the second-best net rating in the league. The Clippers are seven games under .500 on the road. Minnesota is 11 over at home.
+2941 70-26 IN LAST 96 NBA ML PICKS
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Mike Barner
CLEVELAND @ BROOKLYN | 04/12 | 7:00 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +8.5
ANALYSIS: We just saw these two teams play each other less than a week ago, a game that was also played in Brooklyn. The Nets won by 11 points, with Kevin Durant scoring 36 points along the way. Darius Garland was also excellent for the Cavaliers, scoring 31 points on 12-for-24 shooting from the field. It hasn’t been an ideal season for the Nets, but they made the play-in tournament, have Kyrie Irving available for all of their games again, and still have championship aspirations. I think they win this game, but don’t be surprised if the Cavaliers cover this big number. Since Irving was able to play in Brooklyn again, the Nets have gone just 1-5 ATS at home.
+335 11-7 IN LAST 18 NBA PICKS
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #915 Toronto +115
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H&H Sports
Early Update
MLB
2* White Sox -1/2 run [+125]
1* Guardians -1/2 run [+130]
1* Red Sox -123 - - Full game
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Pickswise Sports
Tuesday Soccer
1* Villarreal/Bayern Munich Under 3.5 goals [-125]
1* Chelsea/Real Madrid DRAW [+260]
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Martin Green
Chelsea vs. Real Madrid (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET)
Chelsea draw no bet +115 (one unit)
Both teams to score -140 (half unit)
Karim Benzema to score +135 (half unit)
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WWP
He takes Toronto and Texas
We take Yankees and Colorado
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Jon Eimer
Bayern Munich vs. Villarreal (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET)
Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals TT (-120)
Bayern Munich 1st team to score 1st half (-165)
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AccuScore Picks
4* Cavaliers +9.5
4* Blue Jays vs. Yankees Under 10
4* Nationals vs. Braves Over 9.5
4* Dodgers vs. Twins Under 9.5
4* Royals vs. Cardinals Under 9.5
4* Blues vs. Bruins Over 6
4* Ducks vs. Panthers Over 6.5
4* Oilers vs. Wild Over 6.5
3* Hurricanes vs. Rangers Over 5.5
4* Real Madrid vs. Chelsea Over 2.5
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Jim Feist
Mets
Blue Jays
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Jack Jones
20
LA Dodgers
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Kyle Hunter
Rockies
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The Money Team Baseball (TMT) ⚾️
Monday Recap 3-0 +$8,000
Baseball YTD 8-5 +$12,560
4k Houston -150
2k NY Yankees -121
2k Cleveland Under 8
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MICHAEL ALEXANDER
MLB, 04/12 4:15 PM Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Under 8 for 2 Units
If you are going to tail, I recommend doing it soon because this total has dropped to 8 at many books. Cincinnati is a great hitters' park but the wind is blowing in a bit today and that game time should have some affect on batters in terms of shadows around home plate. Yes, the Guardians have been raking the past two days -- Steven Kwan!?!? -- in Kansas City but Reds starter Tyler Mahle was good in his season debut and is countered by former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber of the Guards (that's my shortened nickname for them), and he should largely shut down Cincinnati.
MLB, 04/12 4:15 PM Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox -118 for 2 Units
This line has been dropping so Ill happily take the White Sox now at this value. Matt Brash hasn’t pitched above double A and he has only played in the minor leagues for two seasons. He did pitch well in Spring Training which is why I think the public money is coming in on the Mariners, but the real thing is a completely different story. This will be the White Sox home opener and they should have their full lineup in. Vince Velasquez has struggled his past couple seasons but I don’t think he will pitch more than 3 innings today. The White Sox had yesterday off so they have all their bullpen arms available. Mariners also have a very good bullpen, and they should have their top arms available as well. However, the White Sox have a big lineup advantage, and they were very good at home last season at 53-28. Take the White Sox in their home opener.
MLB, 04/12 7:45 PM Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers -128 for 2 Units
Honestly, I am not really sure why the Dodgers are so cheap here. Heaney struggled in Spring Training, but once again, players don’t care about results in Spring Training. Andrew Heaney isn’t one of their top guys, but he is more than capable of pitching a gem at any point, and the Twins struggled against lefties last season ranked just 22nd in the league in wOBA. Heaney also faced the Twins once last season pitching a 7-inning gem, only allowing 2 ER. Chris Archer is starting for the Twins today and I am surprised he is still in the league. The Twins also used their top bullpen arms in their last two games, both wins. The Dodgers lost 2 of 3 games at Colorado but the Rockies were one of the best home teams in the league last season. The Dodgers had yesterday off so they should be ready and rested, take the Dodgers on the road.
MLB, 04/12 9:50 PM San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants -103 for 2 Units
Alex Cobb will be making his Giants debut after coming off one of his best seasons in a while. These Padres hitters didn’t face him last season and I think that gives the pitcher an advantage. The Giants were just 11-8 against the Padres last season and 6-4 at home, which is why I laid off the Giants at -150 last night. However, this price is much more affordable facing a Padres team that used its top relievers last night. Yu Darvish pitched extremely well in his Opening Day start against the Diamondbacks, but he seriously struggled away from home last season. He was just 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road. Darvish pitched well in his two home starts against the Giants last year but he was hit hard in his only start in San Francisco. The Giants were one of the best home teams in the league last season, take the Giants at home.
NHL, 04/12 7:10 PM Carolina Hurricanes vs NY Rangers
PICK: Carolina Hurricanes -119 for 2 Units
The Hurricanes are ranked No. 2 in shots allowed and fourth in faceoff winning percentage, while the Rangers are 15th and 25th, respectively. Carolina owns a plus-380 shot differential, while New York is minus-156 this season. The Rangers posted a 2-0 road victory against the Hurricanes on March 20 despite being outshot 44-18. But New York has a revenge game at Philadelphia coming up on Wednesday, so take Carolina in this spot.
NHL, 04/12 8:10 PM San Jose Sharks vs Nashville Predators
PICK: Nashville Predators -195 for 2 Units
he Sharks are playing out the string and Nashville absolutely can't afford to lose a game like this at home as it chases a playoff spot. I was waiting to make sure that Preds No. 1 goaltender Juuse Saros was cleared to start and he has been. Saros is 22-11 at home with a 2.15 GAA and 2-0 this year vs. San Jose, which has lost six straight games overall and has five road wins in its past 20.
NHL, 04/12 9:40 PM Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars
PICK: Tampa Bay Lightning -155 for 2 Units
The Stars are very good at home but for some reason are starting mega-shaky Scott Wedgewood in net again instead of Jake Oettinger. In addition, winger Alex Radulov (21 points) has been ruled out with an illness. This is more about fading Wedgewood, though, against Andrei Vasilevskiy even though Andrei has lost his past three. Time to get right ahead of the postseason, and he has had a few days off. It's a third game in four nights for Dallas.
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ATS Covers
MLB 7:50 pm Kansas City Royals at St Louis Cardinals
St Louis Cardinals -157 for 1 units
NHL 9:10 pm Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames -1.5 for 1 units
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Andrew McInnis
4% Pittsburgh Penguins -110
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WUnderdog
mlb
Milwaukee -153 v baltimore
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Doug Upstone
5 Unit Play. Take #503 L.A. Clippers +3 over Minnesota (9:35 p.m., Tuesday, April 12)
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Matt Snyder
HOUSTON @ ARIZONA | 04/12 | 9:40 PM EDT
HOUSTON -154
ANALYSIS: The Astros went 3-1 in Anaheim and then got Monday off. That means Luis Garcia gets the ball to start with a rested bullpen arsenal at the disposal of Dusty Baker. Garcia was excellent last season, finishing second in AL Rookie of the Year voting, and the Diamondbacks barely know him. No one on the team has faced him more than once, which is a big advantage for Garcia. He'll be able to get through five or six without giving up much before the likes of Ryne Stanek, Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryan Pressly shut the door. Arizona won't score much. If at all. On the other side, the Astros' offense isn't the juggernaut it was a few years ago and Madison Bumgarner actually shut them down last September, but he had terrible command on Opening Day and won't last long. The bullpen isn't very good, either. The Astros move to 4-1 on their road trip.
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | 04/12 | 4:10 PM EDT
UNDER 8.5
ANALYSIS: Reds starter Tyler Mahle is coming off a breakout season and he followed it up with a five-inning gem on Opening Day (5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K) against the defending champion Braves. The Guardians' offense isn't going to be very good this season and after scoring 27 runs in their last two games, some evening out is due (take note that they scored just one run combined in the first two games of the season). Also, the Reds had Monday off, so their bullpen will be set up however manager David Bell likes it best. Shane Bieber is on the other side. Oh, and the wind is blowing in.
+638 6-0 IN LAST 6 MLB PICKS
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John Bollman
SAN DIEGO @ SAN FRANCISCO | 04/12 | 9:45 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO -110
ANALYSIS: Alex Cobb will be making his Giants debut after coming off one of his best seasons in a while. These Padres hitters didn’t face him last season and I think that gives the pitcher an advantage. The Giants were just 11-8 against the Padres last season and 6-4 at home, which is why I laid off the Giants at -150 last night. However, this price is much more affordable facing a Padres team that used its top relievers last night. Yu Darvish pitched extremely well in his Opening Day start against the Diamondbacks, but he seriously struggled away from home last season. He was just 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road. Darvish pitched well in his two home starts against the Giants last year but he was hit hard in his only start in San Francisco. The Giants were one of the best home teams in the league last season, take the Giants at home.
L.A. DODGERS @ MINNESOTA | 04/12 | 7:40 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -145
ANALYSIS: Honestly, I am not really sure why the Dodgers are so cheap here. Heaney struggled in Spring Training, but once again, players don’t care about results in Spring Training. Andrew Heaney isn’t one of their top guys, but he is more than capable of pitching a gem at any point, and the Twins struggled against lefties last season ranked just 22nd in the league in wOBA. Heaney also faced the Twins once last season pitching a 7-inning gem, only allowing 2 ER. Chris Archer is starting for the Twins today and I am surprised he is still in the league. The Twins also used their top bullpen arms in their last two games, both wins. The Dodgers lost 2 of 3 games at Colorado but the Rockies were one of the best home teams in the league last season. The Dodgers had yesterday off so they should be ready and rested, take the Dodgers on the road.
SEATTLE @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 04/12 | 4:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -125
ANALYSIS: This line has been dropping so Ill happily take the White Sox now at this value. Matt Brash hasn’t pitched above double A and he has only played in the minor leagues for two seasons. He did pitch well in Spring Training which is why I think the public money is coming in on the Mariners, but the real thing is a completely different story. This will be the White Sox home opener and they should have their full lineup in. Vince Velasquez has struggled his past couple seasons but I don’t think he will pitch more than 3 innings today. The White Sox had yesterday off so they have all their bullpen arms available. Mariners also have a very good bullpen, and they should have their top arms available as well. However, the White Sox have a big lineup advantage, and they were very good at home last season at 53-28. Take the White Sox in their home opener.
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Matt Severance
SAN JOSE @ NASHVILLE | 04/12 | 8:00 PM EDT
NASHVILLE -209
ANALYSIS: The Sharks are playing out the string and Nashville absolutely can't afford to lose a game like this at home as it chases a playoff spot. I was waiting to make sure that Preds No. 1 goaltender Juuse Saros was cleared to start and he has been. Saros is 22-11 at home with a 2.15 GAA and 2-0 this year vs. San Jose, which has lost six straight games overall and has five road wins in its past 20.
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS | 04/12 | 9:30 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -150
ANALYSIS: The Stars are very good at home but for some reason are starting mega-shaky Scott Wedgewood in net again instead of Jake Oettinger. In addition, winger Alex Radulov (21 points) has been ruled out with an illness. This is more about fading Wedgewood, though, against Andrei Vasilevskiy even though Andrei has lost his past three. Time to get right ahead of the postseason, and he has had a few days off. It's a third game in four nights for Dallas.
+1251 61-31-1 IN LAST 93 NHL PICKS
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Matt Severance
LOS ANGELES @ CHICAGO | 04/12 | 8:30 PM EDT
LOS ANGELES -145
ANALYSIS: The Kings have lost three straight but are in a playoff dogfight, have been better on the road this season and welcome back top-six forward Dustin Brown (25 points), who has been out a month. This is also a fade of terrible Hawks netminder Collin Delia (1-2-0, 3.88 GAA). Naturally, that lone win came in Los Angeles but at least the Kings have seen him. Chicago hasn't won since that March 24 game, losing seven in a row.
+1251 61-31-1 IN LAST 93 NHL PICKS
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John Bollman
HOUSTON @ ARIZONA | 04/12 | 9:40 PM EDT
HOUSTON -150
ANALYSIS: Madison Bumgarner really struggled with command in his first start of the season walking four straight batters before being pulled after 3 IP. The Diamondbacks bullpen actually pitched pretty well that night and they were able to come back for the win. However, they lost three games in a row after that. The Astros were one of the best teams in the league last season at hitting lefties with the 4th best wOBA in the league. Madison Bumgarner did face the Astros once throwing a 7-inning gem last season, but I don’t see that happening again. The Astros were off yesterday so they have all their top bullpen arms available. They should also have everyone back in the lineup besides Yuli Gurriel, who is on paternity leave. Luis Garcia has another year of experience now and if he doesn’t pitch well, Dusty Baker has the option to go to his bullpen. Take the Astros on the road.
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Micah Roberts
L.A. CLIPPERS @ MINNESOTA | 04/12 | 9:30 PM EDT
L.A. CLIPPERS +3
ANALYSIS: If this game were played at the beginning of March, I’d be all over the Timberwolves to win at home. But they’re a different team right now, having lost six of their last 10 contests. And they were critical losses under pressure, as Minnesota was chasing the No. 6 playoff seed in the Western Conference. The Clippers are playing their best brand of basketball of the season right now. They enter with a five-game winning steak (4-1 ATS) and have won and covered four of their last five meetings with the Timberwolves. Take Los Angeles and the points.
CLEVELAND @ BROOKLYN | 04/12 | 7:00 PM EDT
BROOKLYN -8.5
ANALYSIS: The Nets turned on the go switch in their last four games, winning each by eight points or more. One of those was a 118-107 home win against the Cavs with the same spread as Tuesday's. The Cavaliers have lost eight of their last 11 and have gone 3-9 ATS in their last 12. The Cavs don’t have that spring in their step as they did in the first half of the season, while the Nets are getting better and have tons to prove. Brooklyn gets the cover.
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Jack Winningham
Cleveland Cavaliers (+9.5)
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Bob Balfe:
MLB
7:05 PM EST: Blue Jays/Yankees Over 9.5 runs.Kikuchi/Corte.The Blue Jays are a hot-hitting team that will lead the league in runs. The current Yankees roster can hit the cheap home runs to rightfield. Both teams will start left-handed pitchers with high career ERA that should give up a lot of runs. Look for fireworks tonight. Take the Over.
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