Tuesday 4/19/22 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games
ZITI Sports
NBA PLAYOFFS
Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat OVER 219 -110 (7:30 PM)
NHL
Calgary Flames -140 Nashville Predators (8:05 PM)
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning OVER 6.5 +100 (7:05 PM)
MLB
St. Louis Cardinals -115 Miami Marlins (6:40 PM)
Tampa Bay Rays -115 Chicago Cubs (7:40 PM)
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians OVER 7.5 +100 (6:10 PM)
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals UNDER 8.5 -115 (8:10 PM)
SOCCER UNDER SYSTEM
Argentina - Liga Pro- Union Santa Fe vs. San Lorenzo UNDER 2 +105 (3:30 PM)
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CleInsiderSports
Soccer - England - Fulham ML
Soccer - Spain - Betis ML
Soccer - Spain - Villarreal ML (1st Half)
Basketball - EuroLeague - Olimpia Milano ML
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Big Al
5* NBA - Grizzlies -6.5
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The Prez
3% REGULATION Anaheim Ducks -110
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baseball33
Miami Marlins – St.Louis Cardinals
St.Louis Cardinals -1
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mlb8 club
USA : MLB
Seattle Mariners – Texas Rangers
Over 8
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Bryan Leonard 5% NBA SLAM DUNK
Grizzlies -7 (-110)
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Matt Severance
WINNIPEG @ N.Y. RANGERS | 04/19 | 7:00 PM EDT
N.Y. RANGERS -199
ANALYSIS: Tuesday game. The Jets haven't been officially eliminated from the playoffs yet but are on the verge of being so and won't get there even by winning out. It seems as if the players quit this weekend with back-to-back losses at Florida and Tampa Bay by a combined score of 13-5. The Jets also remain without Mark Scheifele (70 points). New York needs this to keep pace with Carolina atop the Metro and we've been winning pretty much all year on likely Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin at home.
ATLANTA @ L.A. DODGERS | 04/19 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -157
ANALYSIS: I'm going to jump this Tuesday Dodgers line ahead of Monday's game vs. Atlanta simply because this season we will very rarely see LA less than -160 at home with Walker Buehler (Buehler? Buehler?) on the mound as he's scheduled to be Tuesday, and I'm assuming this will rise quite a bit over the next 24 hours. The right-hander is 22-6 career at Dodger Stadium with a 2.32 ERA. Atlanta counterpart Max Fried has not looked sharp so far this year with a 5.73 ERA.
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Mike Barner
ATLANTA @ MIAMI | 04/19 | 7:30 PM EDT
MIAMI -7
ANALYSIS: The Hawks are only going to go as far as Trae Young can carry them, and this is a Heat team that is loaded with excellent defenders who can team up to make things difficult for him. Young only scored eight points in Game 1, shooting 1-for-12 from the field. While he likely won’t be that bad again, the Hawks basically need him to score 30 points a night if they are going to have a chance to win, and that might be difficult against this group. John Collins is still working his way back from missing a month and Clint Capela is out, so Young’s supporting cast is also compromised right now. After the Heat won by 24 points in Game 1, another blowout could be coming.
+405 15-10 IN LAST 25 NBA PICKS
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Matt Severance
L.A. ANGELS @ HOUSTON | 04/19 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -152
ANALYSIS: We faded the Halos without Mike Trout in Houston on Monday and that paid off, and it seems more likely than not that he will sit Tuesday as well because Joe Maddon wasn't sure if Trout would play in this series. Regardless, we like Houston's Framber Valdez (1-0, 0.93 ERA) significantly better than the Angels' Patrick Sandoval, who had a 10.80 ERA last year in two outings vs. the Astros. Valdez was 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA against LA in 2021.
TEXAS @ SEATTLE | 04/19 | 9:40 PM EDT
SEATTLE -145
ANALYSIS: Texas is better offensively this year with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager but the rotation is still garbage. Jon Gray lasted one start in his Rangers debut (4 IP, 3 ER) before being sidelined with a blister. He'll apparently return Tuesday and we have to heavily favor reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray of Seattle (in his M's home debut) in that matchup. He was great in his first start but roughed up in his second -- to be fair, the latter was in hitters' conditions at the White Sox.
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Stephen Oh
BOSTON @ ST. LOUIS | 04/19 | 8:00 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -135
ANALYSIS: My model says the Blues win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. St. Louis is one of the hottest teams in the league right now as it has won nine straight overall and six in a row at home, where it has posted a 26-9-4 record. The Bruins have lost four of their last six contests, with one of the defeats coming against the Blues at home last week. Vladimir Tarasenko is riding a six-game point streak and was named the NHL's First Star of the Week after notching seven goals and four assists over four contests. He has tallied in five straight, including twice in the win at Boston. Take the Blues.
+1275 14-2 IN LAST 16 NHL PICKS
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Matt Severance
ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON | 04/19 | 1:05 PM EDT
WASHINGTON -143
ANALYSIS: Arizona might have the slight edge starting pitching-wise in Madison Bumgarner (although this is his first road start of the year and he was quite a bit worse on the road last year) over Josiah Gray, but that Snakes lineup is just puke -- and three starters are sitting in the opener of the doubleheader. Not that they were hitting anyways. Washington manager Dave Martinez is rolling with his usual starters in the opener, meaning a few might get Game 2 off. Remember, doubleheaders are no longer seven innings.
MINNESOTA @ MEMPHIS | 04/19 | 8:30 PM EDT
MEMPHIS -280
ANALYSIS: Now that this has come down under -300, I'm going to use it on a parlay TBA -- probably with the Heat over the Hawks, but I want to make sure Bam Adebayo and a few other Miami players are in there first as they are listed as questionable (the Dodgers behind Walker Buehler are another possibility). Might the Timberwolves cover the spread for this game? Sure, but I really have trouble seeing them win a second straight in Memphis. Think they simply surprised the Grizzlies a bit and that Memphis was rusty because the starters hadn't played in more than a week. Actually believe it's more likely this is a blowout than a Minnesota cover but on the ML I don't care regardless.
+3362 76-27 IN LAST 103 NBA ML PICKS
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John Bollman
ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON | 04/19 | 1:05 PM EDT
WASHINGTON -140
ANALYSIS: Madison Bumgarner takes on Josiah Gray in Game 1 in Washington. Madison Bumgarner has been solid in both his starts this season, but he did struggle with command a bit. Josiah Gray was good in one start and decent in another. The Nationals bullpen worries me a bit ranked 4th worst in the league, but the Diamondbacks bullpen isn’t much better at 7th worst in the league. The Dbacks are really digging into their bench for Game 1 while the Nats are starting all their regulars. I like the Nats at home.
TEXAS @ SEATTLE | 04/19 | 9:40 PM EDT
SEATTLE -135
ANALYSIS: Jon Gray made his opening day start against the Blue Jays before landing on the IL with a blister. He returns today, and I wouldn’t expect him to go terribly deep, meaning the Rangers league-worst bullpen should pitch plenty of innings. The Rangers do crush lefties which worries me a bit, they are ranked second in the league in wOBA against lefties. However, the Mariners bullpen is ranked 4th in the league in ERA and they had yesterday off. The Mariners were also very good at home last season at 46-35 while the Rangers were just 24-57 on the road. The Rangers will need to hit Ray to have a chance to win this game, because the mismatch in the bullpens is so large. I like the Mariners at home.
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AccuScore Picks
4* Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Over 241
3* Pelicans vs. Suns Over 221.5
3* Pelicans +9.5
4* Panthers vs. Islanders Over 6.5
4* Bruins vs. Blues Over 6
4* Kings vs. Ducks Under 5.5
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Ralph Michaels
3%- ML PARLAY MIA -300/ MEM -270
4%- Colorado Rockies +124 K Gibson (RHP), K Freeland (LHP) Must Start
4%- Florida Panthers -190
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kelso
personal best baseball
50 padres run line
best bets baseball
15 white sox
15 marlins
15 mariners
chairmans hoops
25 suns
best bets hoops
15 hawks
15 t wolves
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Dave Cokin
3%- 1H Miami Marlins -115 A Wainwright (RHP), J Luzardo (LHP) Must Start
1%- San Diego Padres -186 R Sanmartin (LHP), J Musgrove (RHP) Must Start
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Carmine Bianco
3% Florida Panthers at New York Islanders
REGULATION Florida Panthers -130
3% Winnipeg Jets at New York Rangers
REGULATION New York Rangers -130
3% Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues
Total Over 6.0 (-115)
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dave price
6 san diego padres
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asa
10 cleveland guardians
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Fezzik
2* Memphis -6.5
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Delphi Sports
MLB
3* #951 St. Louis -116
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Doug Upstone
1 Unit Play. Take #552 Memphis -280 ML over Minnesota (8:35 p.m. ET, Tuesday, April 19)
6 Unit Play Take #550 Miami -7.5 over Atlanta (7:35 p.m. ET, Tuesday, April 19)
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Brandon Lang
60 Dimes - Miami Heat
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Ben Burns
1* Lightning PL
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CleInsiderSports
Basketball - NBA - Hawks/Heat U219
Baseball - MLB - Mets ML (gm1)
Baseball - MLB - Cardinals/Marlins O8
Hockey - NHL - Red Wings/Lightning U6.5
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VSiN Hosts & Guests
PRIME TIME ACTION
Adam Levitan
Jameson Williams under 15.5 (-180)
Kenny Pickett to be drafted by Titans (25-1)
Evan Neal first OL selected (+150)
Kelley Bydlon
Hawks +7.5 (-115)
Timberwolves +7.5 (-116)
Kaiir Elam Top 32 Pick +150
Desmond Ridder under 31.5 (+110)
THE NIGHT CAP
Tim Murray
Sauce Gardner Under 7.5 (-150)
Kenny Pickett Over 10.5 (-170)
Shaun King
Sauce Gardner Top 5 (+100)
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Pauly Howard
Desmond Ridder Under 31.5 (+110)
Mitch Moss
Chris Paul NBA Finals MVP +900
Padres 1st 5 -0.5 (-115)
Desmond Ridder 1st QB Drafted (28/1)
A NUMBERS GAME
Gill Alexander
Taro Daniel -108 over Lajovic
Qiang Wang +137 over Sorribes Tormo
Timberwolves +7 v Grizzlies
Drew Dinsick
Hawks +7 vs. Heat
Paul Carr
Liverpool -1.5 over Man United +105
Chelsea-Arsenal under 2.5 Goals -130
Everton-Leicester City Both Teams to Score -135
Dan Besbris
Hawks-Heat under 219.5
Mark Borchard
Yankees/Brewers ML Parlay +114
Mariners -130 over Rangers
THE LOMBARDI LINE
Will Hill
Grizzlies (-6.5) > Timberwolves
Wednesday: Bucks (-10) > Bulls
Suns (-3.5) 1Q > Pelicans
GM 1: Mets (-120) > Giants
Classic of New Orleans winner: Hossler/Theegala 80/1
PALM READERS PLAYBOOK
Mike Palm
2 Units
Inter Milan-AC Milan Un 2.5 -130
1 Unit
Mets (Megill) F5 -120
Guardians (Bieber) F5 -145
White Sox (Keuchel) - Indians (Bieber) F5 Un 4 -105
Parlay: Brewers (Burnes) -240/Padres(Musgrove) -180
THE EDGE
Jonathan Von Tobel
Timberwolves +7 vs. Grizzlies
Matt Youmans
Hawks +8 vs. Heat
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The Money Team (TMT)
Yesterday 2-0-1 +$4,920 (100%)
Baseball YTD 19-11 +$23,620 (63%)
2k Detroit +184
2k Texas +115
2k Pittsburgh +215
2k Pittsburgh Under 7.5 -116
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XS SPORTS PICKS TUESDAY
MLB: YTD 16-11 +$29,710 (+297.10 Units / 59% Winners)
2* Miami -110
3* Boston Under 9.5
3* Chicago Cubs +105
NHL: YTD 181-167 +$83,120 (+831.20 Units)
Hot Run 10-3 +$31,120 (+311.20 Units) (77% NHL Winners)
2* Montreal +231
3* St Louis -125
3* LA Kings -150
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Matt Severance
BOSTON @ ST. LOUIS | 04/19 | 8:00 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -130
ANALYSIS: How hot are the Blues right now? They have scored at least four goals in 12 straight games (losing only one), the longest streak of four or more in the NHL since the Penguins reached 15 games during the 1992-93 season. Robert Thomas has a point streak of 13 straight games -- a career-best and the longest active streak in the league. Top-six defenseman Nick Leddy missed Sunday's rout of Nashville but will play tonight. Boston is again without stud forward David Pastrnak (38G, 33A) and defenseman Hampus Lindholm (26 points). The Blues are hosting the Bruins for the first time since defeating them in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final.
PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO | 04/19 | 7:00 PM EDT
UNDER 7
ANALYSIS: We won on the Leafs Under 6.5 goals when NHL goals-scoring leader Auston Matthews was out Sunday vs. the Islanders, and with Matthews out again here, I have to go Under 7 even though the Flyers aren't as good defensively as the Isles are. Philly also can't score much and has shut down several guys for the season. I think at worst we push as Toronto simply isn't the same without Matthews.
+2103 74-34-2 IN LAST 110 NHL PICKS
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Micah Roberts
TORONTO @ BOSTON | 04/19 | 7:10 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: The last time the Blue Jays lineup faced Nathan Eovaldi, in August, they pounded him for seven runs in a 12-4 win. Both of Eovaldi's 2022 starts have gone Over the total. Yusei Kikuchi has been one of my favorite Over starters, and both his starts against Boston went way Over in two Toronto losses. A light breeze is blowing out to center. Over is the top play.
N.Y. YANKEES @ DETROIT | 04/19 | 6:40 PM EDT
OVER 7.5
ANALYSIS: The Yankees have gone Over the total only twice in 10 games this season and both were games started by ace Gerrit Cole, who had the same stat line in both games: Four hits allowed, three runs allowed. Cole’s last six starts have gone Over. Also, the wind is blowing out to left-center field at 15 mph. Over is the play Tuesday.
SAN FRANCISCO @ N.Y. METS | 04/19 | 3:10 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO 105
ANALYSIS: This is the first game of a doubleheader. Both of these starting rotations have been killing opponents, and the Giants have won five straight. They went into Cleveland over the weekend and allowed only four runs in a three-game sweep. The Mets starting rotation's ERA is 1.07, and Tylor Megill has allowed no runs in two starts. But the Giants' Alex Cobb looked unhittable, striking out 10 Padres in five innings of work in his first start. Giants to win.
+345 5-2 IN LAST 7 MLB ML PICKS
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Matt Severance
COLUMBUS @ SAN JOSE | 04/19 | 10:30 PM EDT
SAN JOSE -130
ANALYSIS: Why on earth would I back a Sharks team on a 10-game skid and having shut down a handful of players for the year? For one, they are at home for the first time since April 7. Second, they haven't exactly been routed in the skid with six of the losses by one goal. Third, Kaapo Kahkonen has been very good in net his past two starts, stopping 64 of 67 shots. Really, though, this is fading a Blue Jackets team recently eliminated from playoff contention that is playing a third road game in four nights and has ruled out star forward Patrik Laine (56 points) and top defenseman Zach Werenski (47 points). When both teams don't give a hoot, back the home side.
+2103 74-34-2 IN LAST 110 NHL PICKS
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Matt Josephs - MLB
2% Chris Archer (Twins) under 4' strikeouts (-138)
3% Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total under 2.5 runs (-110)
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King Creole - NBA
4% Grizzlies/Timberwolves Over 241 (-110)
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Jesse Schule - MLB
5% Seattle Mariners (-135) - Ray/Gray must start
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Ashley covers
heat -7
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Tomas Sports
Memphis -6.5
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Oskeim Sports
NBA GOY: Griz (-6.5)
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Winners Edge
St. Louis Team Total over 3.5
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Andrew McInnis
4% NEW YORK RANGERS ML + FLORIDA PANTHERS ML
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Big Al
Atlanta Hawks
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Goodfella
2* Marlins 1st 5
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