Tuesday 4/27/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games
Stephen Oh
BOSTON @ PITTSBURGH | 04/27 | 7:00 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH -110
ANALYSIS: My model says the Penguins win in over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value on them at this number. Pittsburgh has charged to the top of the East Division on the strength of a four-game winning streak that includes a 1-0 victory over Boston on Sunday. The Penguins own the best home record in the NHL at 20-3-2. The Bruins have suffered back-to-back losses following a six-game winning streak and are 1-8 in their last nine contests in Pittsburgh. Take the Penguins.
DETROIT @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 04/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -216
ANALYSIS: My model says the White Sox win in over 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Chicago is riding a four-game winning streak during which it scored at least eight runs on three occasions. The White Sox also have produced eight runs in three of their last five home games. Detroit has lost five straight contests and 10 of its last 11, scoring more than two runs only twice in that span. Take the White Sox.
__________________
Elite Sports Picks
Cleveland (Civale) +100 over Minnesota (Maeda)
__________________
Insider Sports Report
4* San Diego (Paddack) -160 over Arizona (Kelly)
Range: -140 to -180
3* Philadelphia (Eflin)/St. Louis (Martinez) OVER 8
Range: 7.5 to 8.5
3* Seattle (Gonzales)/Houston (Javier) UNDER 9
Range: 9.5 to 8.5
__________________
National Sports Service
4* Washington (Scherzer) -145 over Toronto (Thornton)
3* Philadelphia (Eflin) -105 over St. Louis (Martinez)
__________________
Primetime Sports Picks
MEMBER PICKS For 04/27/21
4 Unit --> Philadelphia (Eflin) -105 over St. Louis (Martinez)
3 Unit --> Washington (Scherzer)/Toronto (Thornton) UNDER 8.5
3 Unit --> Colorado (Gonzalez)/San Francisco (Sanchez) UNDER 8
__________________
Top Rank Sports Picks
Marquee Picks® For 04/27/21
4★ San Diego (Paddack) -160 over Arizona (Kelly)
3★ Colorado (Gonzalez)/San Francisco (Sanchez) OVER 8
__________________
Matt Severance
KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH | 04/27 | 6:35 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH +1.5
ANALYSIS: Kansas City is 6-0 in one-run games this season -- although we won on Detroit +1.5 Monday in the Tigers' 3-2 home loss to the Royals. That one-run good fortune simply will not last for KC, so we will back the Bucs on the RL here at -140 with a feeling they may win outright. Kansas City also loses the DH. Pittsburgh has a winning record at home and is 10-8 vs. right-handed starters with the Royals starting righty Jakob Junis (1-0, 3.71). The Pirates, who have a small advantage in that they were off Monday, go with lefty Tyler Anderson (2-2, 3.92). He has won back-to-back starts, allowing three runs over 10.1 innings. The Royals have never seen him. Pittsburgh is 7-3 in its past 10 as a home dog.
PHILADELPHIA @ ST. LOUIS | 04/27 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS +1.5
ANALYSIS: We won on the Cardinals as runline home dogs Monday, although they lost 2-1 to the Phillies. Hard to imagine that lineup is kept to one run or fewer again, so we'll run it back with St. Louis on the runline Tuesday (the team might be a ML favorite by first pitch and +1.5 wouldn't be available) even though Carlos Martinez (0-4, 6.00) has pretty bad numbers overall. He was very good last time out vs. Washington. Philly's Zach Eflin (1-0, 2.77) is a solid pitcher but was roughed up a bit in his only other road start so far and was also worse away in 2020. For what it's worth, the Phillies have lost six straight Tuesday games.
N.Y. YANKEES @ BALTIMORE | 04/27 | 7:05 PM EDT
BALTIMORE +1.5
ANALYSIS: It's almost comical how oddsmakers keep overvaluing the Yankees simply because they are the Yankees. That lineup was largely shut down by Matt Harvey (!?) in Monday's loss in Baltimore and the Bombers are 2-4 vs. lefties this year -- the O's start southpaw Bruce Zimmermann (1-2, 4.57) on Tuesday. I don't have a lot of faith in him, but he has been a bit better at home. This is more going against former two-time AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (0-2, 5.40), who looks completely done. The right-hander has yet to last five innings this season. I'll gladly take the Birds as +105 runline dogs at home.
__________________
Kevin Davis - BoogieDownPicks
MLB
Indians +105
Blue Jays +130
Padres 1st 5 innings [-160]
__________________
Kevin Rogers (Vegasinsider MLB)
Boston Red Sox +130
__________________
Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider
NHL Big Plays 18-5 Last 23..
NHL
New York Islanders/Washington Capitals Under 5.5 [-115]
Boston Bruins/Pittsburgh Penguins Over 5.5 [-109]
Tampa Bay Lightning/Chicago Blackhawks Over 5.5 [-129]
All regular plays
__________________
Toby Maxtone-Smith - Vegasinsider Soccer Handicapper ⚽️
UEFA Champions League Semifinals Best Bet
Real Madrid vs Chelsea
TV; CBSSN - Time; 3:00 p.m.
Best Bet - - Chelsea +235
Regular Play - - Under 2.5 goals [-180]
__________________
Pickswise Sports
NHL 3* Best Bet - Tampa Bay Lightning/Chicago Blackhawks Under 6 [-117]
__________________
mlbtotal us
Arizona Diamondbacks - San Diego Padres : Over 9
__________________
Stitches--NY Post. Won again yesterday with the Angels. That makes 2 winners in a row. Season record is 12-14.
Tuesday's play is the Phillies.
SDQL
MILWAUKEE @ CHARLOTTE | 04/27 | 7:00 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -9.5
ANALYSIS: Milwaukee was outscored 41-26 in the fourth quarter on Sunday in a 111-104 loss in Atlanta after leading at the end of each of the first three quarters. They had no rest against a rested Hawks team and were off a two-game set vs. the 76ers. We expect them to respond positively here. The Bucks are 11-0 ATS (+9.69 ppg) since the start of the 2018 season as rested road favorites after a game as a road favorites in which they had fewer than eight offensive boards. Perhaps more importantly, the Bucks are 6-0 ATS in franchise history after a road loss in which Giannis Antetokounmpo played at least 20 minutes and they held the lead at the end of the first three quarters. Charlotte shot very well in its last game and upset the Celtics 125-104. This is a negative indicator, as the Hornets are 0-12 ATS (-11.04 ppg) at home coming off a home win which they shot better than 45% from the field and at least 84% from the foul line.
__________________
Kevin Dolan 5% UCL
Real Madrid - Chelsea under 2.25 -125 / good to -140
__________________
Mike Barner
MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON | 04/27 | 9:00 PM EDT
MINNESOTA -1.5
ANALYSIS: The wheels have come off for the Rockets. They’ve lost nine of their last 10 games with their only win during that stretch coming against the rebuilding Magic. They also announced Monday that John Wall (hamstring) will miss the rest of the season. Coming off of back-to-back wins over the Jazz and three wins in their last four games, the Timberwolves should continue the Rockets’ losing ways.
__________________
Scott Spreitzer
Panthers -125 (6U)
__________________
3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #975/976 Kansas City/Pittsburgh under 8 (Junis/Anderson)
__________________
Matt Severance
This line was -190 when the pick was posted.
DALLAS @ GOLDEN ST. | 04/27 | 9:30 PM EDT
GOLDEN ST. -112
ANALYSIS: The Mavericks are in the second of a back-to-back and likely will be without starters Kristaps Porzingis and Josh Richardson at a minimum. Both are doubtful after sitting Monday. The rest of the regular starters and JJ Redick are all listed as questionable -- thus, it's possible Luka Doncic sits out, too, as he's clearly bothered by a sore elbow and then this spread would really rise. The Dubs are 2-0 at home this season when fans are allowed (past two games). Golden State is looking for its fifth straight home victory overall, which would be its longest home winning streak this season
__________________
XS Sports Picks Tuesday
Yesterday 1-1 +$700
NBA:
$2000 Dallas +2.5 (9:30pm)
__________________
XS Sports Picks Tuesday
Yesterday 2-1 (67%) +$7,650
MLB:
$3000 Baltimore +162 (7pm)
$2000 Toronto +110 (7pm)
$3000 Texas +1.5 -115 (8pm)
__________________
XS Sports Picks Tuesday
Yesterday 1-1 (-$3,000)
NHL:
$2000 New Jersey Under 6 (7pm)
$3000 Florida -115 (8pm)
__________________
Essler
3* Warriors -2.5
__________________
Scott Spreitzer
Bucks -9 (4U)
__________________
BetQL MLB
5* San Diego -150
5* San Diego Over 9
5* Boston +130
4*Atlanta Over 8.5
3*Boston Under 8.5
__________________
BetQL NBA
4* Dallas +5
2* Dallas Over 222.5
__________________
BetQL NHL
3* Philly -140
3* NY Islanders -115
2* Boston -120
__________________
In Game Trap
Pittsburgh Pirates -110 (10*)
__________________
RALPH MICHAELS
Game: (21) Buffalo Sabres at (22) New York Rangers
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 6.0 (-120)
__________________
BUSTER SPORTS
Game: (27) Philadelphia Flyers at (28) New Jersey Devils
Play Rating: 5 units
Play: Total Over 6.0 (-110)
__________________
Kyle Akins
Giants Under 8
__________________
Bryan Leonard
5% St Louis -110
__________________