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(@shazman)
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Tuesday 5/25/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games

 
Posted : May 25, 2021 8:45 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 60282
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Kevin Rogers
Vegasinsider NBA
Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets
TV: TNT - Time: 7:35 p.m.

Best Bet - Brooklyn Nets -9 [-113]
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Jonathan Willis
Vegasinsider NBA
Los Angeles Lakers vs Phoenix Suns
TV: TNT - Time: 10:05 p.m.

Best Bet - Los Angeles Lakers -118 (Moneyline)
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost yesterday with the Phillies. Season record now 24-30.

Tuesday's play (20 units) is on the Nationals.
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Carmine Bianco
5% Carolina Hurricane+100 3way regulation
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Posted : May 25, 2021 8:48 am
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Roz Juarbe

NBA
Nets -9.5 (4:35 PT / 7:35 ET) ** NBA PLAYOFF BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR **
Clippers -6 (7:35 PT / 10:35 ET)

MLB
Marlins -1.25 (3:40 PT / 6:40 ET)
Brewers -1.25 (4:40 PT / 7:40 ET)
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STEVE MERRIL ALL BASKETBALL PLAYS

Steve 5% NBA Game of the Month
Game: (535) Dallas Mavericks at (536) Los Angeles Clippers
Date/Time: May 25 2021 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -6.0 (-110)
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JM SPORTS

Game: (533) Los Angeles Lakers at (534) Phoenix Suns
Date/Time: May 25 2021 10:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: Total Under 208.0 (-110)

3 unit Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns UNDER 208 –
The Lakers this year have been impressive this year at keeping the total under. They are 28-43-2 OU on the year (60.6% of games going under the total) including 26-8 under vs. teams with winning records. Regardless of how good a team is the Lakers have found a way to keep opponents under the total, posting ridiculous numbers like 12-30 OU vs. teams shooting 36%+ from deep, 4-13 OU vs. teams that shooting over 48% from the field on the year, the Lakers are 5-15 OU vs. teams that are consistently outscoring their opponents by 3+ PPG TY, and LA is 16-35 OU vs. teams that average 110+ PPG on the season! Phoenix may have been a powerhouse offense of recently but they didn’t show it in the first game of the series, regardless of the fact that they won the game in impressive fashion, their offense didn’t put up points to the caliber that we have grown accustomed to from Phoenix. The Suns are 0-6 OU TY when the total is less then 215, but this will be the lowest total they have seen this year, with the previous low being 212. When the total is low and Phoenix is against the division, they have been prone to following the Lakers trends and keeping the game low scoring, and under the total, going 0-2 OU in the only 2 games vs. Pacific league opponents (which happens to be the Lakers twice) when the total was under 215!

Game: (959) San Diego Padres at (960) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: May 25 2021 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: 1H San Diego Padres +0.5 (-105) J Musgrove (RHP), C Burnes (RHP) Must Start

4 unit 1H San Diego Padres (+0.5 runs; -105) over Milwaukee Brewers (Musgrove/Burnes) –

How about a look at these stats, a team that is 12-1 in the L13 games, scoring 7.08 runs/game and allowing only 2 runs a game! San Diego is also hitting .279 in the L7 games, while allowing a batting average of 0.183 to opponents in the L7 games. They are the #1 team in the league in opponent runs/game (3.085) and #1 in run differential (+1.596), the Padres have held teams to .205 BA (the whole staff), which is #2 in the majors, and #3 in both opp. OB% and SLG% (.281 ; .343). On the offensive side the Padres has posted the 9th best BA in the league (.244) and they are also #4 in OB% TY (.332). All of this attributes to the fact that the Padres, are holding a run differential of +0.492 runs in the 1H of games, in comparison to the Brew crew. They also have Musgrove on the mound, while he hasn’t been perfect, he still has posted a 2.65 ERA on the R TY, 1.16 ERA in night games (4 ER in 31 IPs), and the team is 4-1 in his L5 starts. The Brewers are on the other side of the spectrum recently, they are 6-13 in the L19 games, and have struggled to put up offensive numbers, which has limited their 1H scoring totals to only 1.870 runs/1H (which is #29 in the MLB TY). Milwaukee is also throwing Burnes who has struggled of recent, the Brewers are 0-3 in his L3 stats (2-5 in his in his 7 starts), while he has kept his ERA to 3.94 in those 3 games, but he isn’t getting much help from the offense, averaging only 1.3 runs of support in those 3 games, while the opposition has scored 5.3 runs/game in those starts. Even though Burnes pitched against the Padres on April 20th, and help them to 6 shutout innings, that game seemed to spark a fire under the bats of the Padres. In the 28 games since the Padres faced Burnes they are averaging 5.36 runs/game and holding opponents to under 3 runs per game (2.86).
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Posted : May 25, 2021 10:20 am
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Scott Spreitzer

Marlins -125 (3U)
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Elite Sports Picks

N.Y. Yankees (Kluber) -155 over Toronto (Matz)
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Insider Sports Report

4* Cleveland (Civale) -140 over Detroit (Skubal)
Range: -120 to -160

3* L.A. Lakers/Phoenix OVER 208 (NBA)
Range: 206.5 to 210.5

3* Dallas +6 over L.A. Clippers (NBA)
Range: +7.5 to +4
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National Sports Service

4* St. Louis (Flaherty) +115 over Chicago White Sox (Giolito)

3* Washington (Scherzer) -155 over Cincinnati (Mahle)

3* L.A. Lakers -2 over Phoenix (NBA)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 05/25/21

4 Unit --> Milwaukee (Burnes) -120 over San Diego (Musgrove)

3 Unit --> L.A. Dodgers (Kershaw) -125 over Houston (Greinke)

3 Unit --> Dallas/L.A. Clippers OVER 216 (NBA)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 05/25/21

4★ St. Louis (Flaherty) +115 over Chicago White Sox (Giolito)

3★ Brooklyn -9.5 over Boston (NBA)

3★ Baltimore (Kremer)/Minnesota (Berrios) OVER 9
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Doug Upstone

4 - Los Angeles Clippers -6.5
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Posted : May 25, 2021 1:00 pm
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Posts: 60282
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Master Sports

NBA
3* #531 Boston +9.5
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Matt Severance

NASHVILLE @ CAROLINA | 05/25 | 8:00 PM EDT
CAROLINA -190
ANALYSIS: I am REALLY getting frustrated by all the bad breaks in these playoffs killing my picks, but we'll shake out of it. I believe the home team may win every game in this series as has happened so far. Carolina won the first two by three goals each in Raleigh, so we will back the Canes here. They had just three regulation home losses during the season and Nashville was .500 away. Carolina netminder Alex Nedeljkovic has been great all season/series but also quite a bit better at home.

+2006 130-80 IN LAST 210 NHL ML PICKS
+955 12-2 IN LAST 14 CAR ML PICKS
+945 11-1 IN LAST 12 NSH ML PICKS
11:53 AM

L.A. DODGERS @ HOUSTON | 05/25 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON +1.5
ANALYSIS: Houston has been dominant at home against left-handers for a few years now, although granted the Astros don't usually face one quite like the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw (6-3, 3.18). That said, Houston is starting its own veteran former Cy Young winner in Zack Greinke (4-1, 3.77) and has the much better lineup right now with L.A. down Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger and perhaps Mookie Betts for this one. Betts might play but didn't Saturday or Sunday with shoulder soreness. We'll take the Astros on the runline.

+1190 49-30 IN LAST 79 MLB ATS PICKS
+495 6-1 IN LAST 7 LAD ATS PICKS
+330 5-2 IN LAST 7 HOU ATS PICKS
11:37 AM

ATLANTA @ BOSTON | 05/25 | 7:10 PM EDT
BOSTON +1.5
ANALYSIS: Should the Sox be home dogs in this one? Boston pitcher Garrett Richards (4-2, 3.72) has been better than Atlanta's Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.60). Richards is 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA over his past five. The Braves do add the DH, but I'll happily take Boston on the runline considering Atlanta is 1-7 vs. the AL this season.

+1190 49-30 IN LAST 79 MLB ATS PICKS
+303 3-0 IN LAST 3 ATL ATS PICKS
+267 5-2 IN LAST 7 BOS ATS PICKS
10:00 AM

DALLAS @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 05/25 | 10:30 PM EDT
L.A. CLIPPERS -260
ANALYSIS: The Clippers burned me at a similar number in Game 1, but I find it hard to believe they lose a second straight at home to the Mavs -- even as good as Luka Doncic is. LA was 17-7 this season following a loss. I'd presume that Kawhi Leonard gets more time on Luka, who helped Dallas shoot 50 percent from the field and nearly 50 percent from deep. That won't happen again. Plus, the Mavs might be down a big body in Maxi Kleber, who is questionable. He had a very good opener with six points, nine rebounds and four assists. Dallas may stay within the spread, but L.A. wins.

+1422 63-31 IN LAST 94 NBA ML PICKS
9:53 AM
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Mike Barner

BOSTON @ BROOKLYN | 05/25 | 7:30 PM EDT
BROOKLYN -9.5
ANALYSIS: Talk about an odd stat. The Nets won Game 1 of this series by 11 points despite shooting 23.5 percent from behind the arc. The trio of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden shot a combined 5-for-24 on 3-pointers. How rare is that? Well, Irving and Durant shot 40.2 percent and 45.0 percent on 3-pointers, respectively, during the regular season. The Celtics might be able to make a game close when this series shifts to Boston, but with Game 2 being played in Brooklyn, look for the Nets to provide another lopsided win.

+545 33-25-1 IN LAST 59 NBA ATS PICKS
+860 13-4 IN LAST 17 BKN ATS PICKS
+573 19-12-1 IN LAST 32 BOS ATS PICKS
10:26 AM
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SDQL

FEATURED PICK
TORONTO @ N.Y. YANKEES | 05/25 | 7:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -177
ANALYSIS: The Yankees are 17-0 as home favorites of at least 140 following a game as favorites in which they allowed six or fewer hits, winning by an average of 4.76 runs. In addition, New York is 10-0 at home after a game in which Gleyber Torres recorded multiple hits. The Blue Jays are 0-13 as road underdogs in series openers with no rest when they are coming off a home series and their opponent is seeking same-season revenge after losing its starting pitcher's previous turn against them.

+1942 51-22-1 IN LAST 74 MLB PICKS
+145 4-1 IN LAST 5 NYY ML PICKS
+137 4-2 IN LAST 6 TOR ML PICKS
10:32 AM

ATLANTA @ BOSTON | 05/25 | 7:10 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox are 9-0 OU (+4.44 rpg) in the first game of a series at home with rest after they had six or fewer hits in their previous contest. The Braves are 7-0 OU (+6.64 rpg) when Charlie Morton starts after working six-plus innings and giving up three or fewer runs in his previous outing.

+1942 51-22-1 IN LAST 74 MLB PICKS
+500 5-0 IN LAST 5 ATL O/U PICKS
9:57 AM

TEXAS @ L.A. ANGELS | 05/25 | 9:38 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -145
ANALYSIS: The Angels are 17-0 as rested 135-plus favorites in the opener of a home series when they are coming off a game as underdogs in which they hit at least one home run. The Rangers are 0-13 as 120-plus underdogs in a series opener when they are coming off a game as underdogs and seeking same-season revenge for a loss.

+1942 51-22-1 IN LAST 74 MLB PICKS
+104 2-1 IN LAST 3 LAA ML PICKS
9:54 AM

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 05/25 | 7:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -180
ANALYSIS: The Rays are 12-0 as favorites in the first game of a series when seeking same-season revenge for a loss. The Royals are 0-12 as road underdogs in series openers when their opponent is seeking same-season revenge for a loss.

+1942 51-22-1 IN LAST 74 MLB PICKS
+831 10-2 IN LAST 12 TB ML PICKS
+736 18-6 IN LAST 24 KC ML PICKS
9:37 AM

ST. LOUIS @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 05/25 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -135
ANALYSIS: The White Sox are 15-0 in the second game of a series as home favorites of more than 135 when they are coming off a home contest in which their starter went less than eight innings, their bullpen did not allow a run and it is before the All-Star break. The Cardinals are 0-5 all-time with Jack Flaherty on the mound after he issued four-plus walks in his previous start. St. Louis was favored in each of its last four games in this spot.

+1942 51-22-1 IN LAST 74 MLB PICKS
+1483 21-5 IN LAST 26 CHW ML PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 STL ML PICKS
9:35 AM
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Micah Roberts

SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 05/25 | 9:40 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO -157
ANALYSIS: The Diamondbacks have lost eight straight, while the Giants come in a bit humiliated after getting swept at home by the Dodgers. San Francisco has now dropped to third place in the National League West. But it should be good Tuesday with ace Kevin Gausman, who has given up fewer than two runs in each of his last six starts. The Giants have won six of his nine turns this season. Cheap price for an ace against what may be the worst team in the majors. Take San Francisco to win.

+1164 20-8-1 IN LAST 29 MLB PICKS
+226 6-4 IN LAST 10 SF ML PICKS
11:50 AM
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
8:10 PM EST
Rotation #978
Astros +105 over Dodgers
Greinke/Kershaw
What a great playoff like matchup we have going tonight. Both of these pitchers have been great in their careers and will be hall of fame bound. Houston is at 100% capacity tonight so it’s starting to feel like the world is getting back to normal. Houston hits the ball so well at home and are great against left handed pitching. This should be a great. Let’s back the home team. Take the Astros
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Dave Cokin

2% Milwaukee Brewers 1H (-130) - Burnes/Musgrove must start
2% Brewers/Padres 1H under 3' (-125) - Burnes /Musgrove must start
3% St. Louis Cardinals 1H (+115) - Flaherty/Giolito must start
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Posted : May 25, 2021 1:09 pm
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Michael Crosson
Vegasinsider NBA
Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers
TV: NBA TV - Time: 10:35 p.m.

Best Bet - Los Angeles Clippers -7

NBA Player Prop Best Bet - Luka Doncic Over 30 points [+112]
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Vince Akins Spotsbook Breakers
MLB Big Plays 17-6 ytd [+2209]...Cashed Brewers yesterday..

MLB
Yankees -173 - - - BIG PLAY
Phillies/Marlins Under 7 [+105]
Twins/Orioles Over 9.5 [-115]
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Kevin Davis - BoogieDownPicks
MLB Big Plays 12-2 ytd...Passed on a Big Play yesterday..

MLB
Phillies +116 - - - BIG PLAY
Dodgers -106
Mariners +158
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Nick Andre - Vegasinsider

WNBA
Washington -135 (Moneyline)
Chicago -6
Connecticut/Seattle Over 163
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Joe Williams - Vegasinsider NHL Team
NHL Big Plays 35-12 ytd...Lost Vegas Golden Knights yesterday..

NHL
Toronto -175 - - - BIG PLAY

NHL - Regular Plays
Toronto -1.5 goals [+145]
Carolina -190
Carolina -1.5 goals [+150]
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The Sports Geek
MLB Big Plays 33-12 ytd...Cashed Miami Marlins yesterday..

MLB
Cardinals +131 - - - BIG PLAY
Mets -1.5 runs [-105]
Athletics -165
Athletics -1.5 runs [+110]
Astros -103
Padres/Brewers Under 7 [-115]
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The Sports Geek

NBA
Nets -9
Nets/Celtics Under 227.5
Lakers -128 (Moneyline)

NHL
Montreal/Toronto Under 5.5 [+100]
Carolina -190
Carolina -1.5 goals [+145]
Carolina/Nashville Over 5 [-133]
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Posted : May 25, 2021 2:23 pm
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