Tuesday 5/3/22 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games
GreenPunter
Cleveland Guardians – San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres -1
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Andrew McInnis
4% SERIES PANTHERS -1.5 (-150)
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The Prez
4% New York Rangers -130
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Andy Lang
NBA Play of the Day
4% Jaylen Brown under 34' PRA (-125)
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Kevin Dolan
5%- Boston Celtics -4.5 (-110)
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Ralph Michaels
4%- Golden State Warriors -130
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Tokyo Brandon
1%- Detroit Tigers -140 B Wilson (RHP), M Pineda (RHP) Must Start
1%- Chicago Cubs +132 M Kopech (RHP), D Smyly (LHP) Must Start
5%- 1H Toronto Blue Jays -128 J Taillon (RHP), A Manoah (RHP) Must Start
CleInsiderSports
Baseball - MLB - Blue Jays ML
Hockey - Sweden - Lulea ML
Hockey - NHL - Avalanche ML
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newworldinsiders
NHL INSIDER: Penguins +107
MID-ATLANTIC INSIDER: Yankees +1.5
CHICAGO INSIDER: White Sox -135
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AccuScore Picks
4* Bucks +5
3* Grizzlies ml
4* Capitals vs. Panthers Over 6.5
4* Predators vs. Avalanche Over 6.5
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Pure Lock
10* New York Rangers -117
10* Boston Celtics -4
10* St. Louis Cardinals -107
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jim feist
brewers rl
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bryan powers
angels
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kelso
chairmans
25 griz
25 bucks
personal best
50 brewers run line
best bets
15 blue jays
15 astros
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Matt Severance
CINCINNATI @ MILWAUKEE | 05/03 | 7:40 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -1.5
ANALYSIS: I generally don't like -1.5 on the runline, but how can I not take that here on Milwaukee at only -120 against the absurdly bad Reds on the road Tuesday? Brewers pitcher Brandon Woodruff hasn't allowed an earned run in two home starts this year. During a six-game skid, Cincinnati has just one loss by fewer than two runs and only three such defeats all year. Starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has a 6.45 ERA.
WASHINGTON @ COLORADO | 05/03 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -155
ANALYSIS: The Rockies just swept a bad team over the weekend at Coors Field in Cincinnati, and I see no reason not to keep backing the Rox in this series against another bad team starting Tuesday. Washington pitcher Erick Fedde has a 6.00 ERA this season -- consider a Charlie Blackmon prop as he's 5-for-8 career off him with a triple and homer -- and counterpart German Marquez has very good home splits in his career in the thin air. Colorado is batting an MLB-best .287 at home. I'll be surprised if this doesn't rise a fair amount.
PITTSBURGH @ N.Y. RANGERS | 05/03 | 7:00 PM EDT
N.Y. RANGERS -129
ANALYSIS: This is simply a goaltending choice Tuesday and nothing else. New York's Igor Shesterkin is going to win the Vezina after leading the league in GAA and save percentage. At home, Shesterkin is 21-6-3 with a 1.85 GAA. The Pens are without No. 1 netminder Tristan Jarry due to injury, and while Casey DeSmith has played well at times this year he's a downgrade. DeSmith also has zero playoff experience.
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Larry Hartstein
CINCINNATI @ MILWAUKEE | 05/03 | 7:40 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -1.5
ANALYSIS: The 15-8 Brewers have had a couple days to stew over a shutout loss to the Cubs, and now they get the perfect opponent in Cincinnati. The Reds rank last in MLB in wins, run differential, OPS, ERA and many other significant categories. Given Milwaukee's edge in the pitching matchup, laying -1.5 runs at -120 feels like a bargain.
+800 10-2 IN LAST 12 MLB PICKS
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Jeff Hochman
WASHINGTON @ FLORIDA | 05/03 | 7:30 PM EDT
WASHINGTON +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Panthers haven't played a meaningful game in quite some time. When these teams met way back in November, all three contests were decided by one goal. Florida went 2-5 against the spread when playing with three or more days of rest. Washington has a ton of experience from its championship run in 2018. I like the Capitals +1.5 goals at -130 in Game 1.
+118 3-2 IN LAST 5 NHL PICKS
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Matt Severance
WASHINGTON @ FLORIDA | 05/03 | 7:30 PM EDT
FLORIDA -228
ANALYSIS: An argument can be made to take the Washington puckline here as Alex Ovechkin will be back in the Washington lineup after missing the final few of the regular season, and the Caps are no pushovers. But the Panthers are just so dominant at home and they get back one of the NHL's best defensemen in Aaron Ekblad. He missed the final 20 games of the regular season. Both East favorites won easily at home on Monday. I am going to play this with Avalanche moneyline over Nashville. If the Preds had Juuse Saros I might worry, but they don't. (I might also throw in Brewers moneyline over Reds as that has come down to a more reasonable number than when I picked the Brewers RL yesterday.)
LOS ANGELES @ EDMONTON | 05/04 | 10:00 PM EDT
EDMONTON -190
ANALYSIS: Maybe I'm a sucker, but I'm going back to Edmonton in Game 2 on Wednesday despite being scorched Monday (my only wrong pick of the night) in their 4-3 home loss. They were 2-for-4 on the power play, killed off all four Kings power plays and outshot L.A. Once the Oilers tied the game 3-3 in the second, I was very confident they were going to win. If they lose again here, it's mental after being swept in the first round of the 2021 playoffs by Winnipeg and also being upset in the 2020 qualifying round by Chicago.
ARIZONA @ MIAMI | 05/03 | 6:40 PM EDT
MIAMI -158
ANALYSIS: Think Monday was the first time I backed the Marlins this season so of course they were upset at home. I'll go back to the well, though, behind lefty Trevor Rogers, who has allowed one earned run over 11 innings in his past two outings. Dating to last season, Arizona has been awful for the most part against lefties. Also a fade of my favorite named pitcher in MLB: the Snakes' Humberto Castellanos. He was ripped for five runs in two innings last time out. The Arizona bullpen is in a bit of shambles due to COVID/recent use.
PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT | 05/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
DETROIT -145
ANALYSIS: This may well get rained out but if not seems a reasonable price on the Tigers at home (although they actually have a worse record than Pittsburgh) behind Michael Pineda (1-1, 3.60 ERA). It's Bryse Wilson for the Bucs, and he has a 7.71 ERA in two road starts. Detroit's bullpen is also much better, leading the majors with a 1.97 ERA. Miguel Cabrera is one double from becoming just the third player to have 3,000-or-more hits, 500-or-more home runs and 600-or-more doubles, joining Hank Aaron and Albert Pujols.
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Dr. Chuck
MLB 5-unit Hammer
5* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+125) J Gray (RHP), R Suarez (LHP) Must Start
The Rangers are coming off a weekend Saturday/Sunday sweep of the champion Atlanta Braves, at home, AND Ronald Acuna was back and in the lineup and on the field...winning the weekend set 3-1 and 7-3 and never trailing for a single out of the 18 innings of domination over the Braves. They then had Monday off for travel to hit the road starting with a quick 2 game series in Philly, before another day of rest on Thursday and a 3 game weekend set in the Bronx against the major league's best team in the Yankees!
On the mound for the "hot" Rangers is Jon Gray, coming over in the offseason with a flurry of moves to potentially make the Rangers relevant in a VERY tough AL West division. Along with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien revamping the middle of the infield and Kole Calhoun, much was made of the 4 big signings and the half a billion bucks spent on them in the offseason to make them better, in a division with the AL champs and the always attempting to improve Angels and Mariners!
Jon Gray had become one of those Rockies starters who excel at home in Coors and had better numbers in the thin air than when he traveled away from the house...and now he is stationed in Arlington...but hasn't started off well, nor has he been able to make his home debut YET...and still today he starts in Philly.
To this point, he has amassed an ERA of 7.00 and that's accompanied by a 5.52 FIP, and while this would normally signify backing the guy...his BABIP is a ridiculous .182 and due for serious negative regression and gets to face a Phils lineup littered with bats up and down the lineup...and slashing an MLB #1 over the past week v. RHP -> 6.2/.401/159The Rangers also arrive in the northeast today with a VMI of -10 and a record in this range of VMI on the road of hitting roughly .200 at 14/70 on the season!
Take the Phillies to get after the Rangers and Jon Gray early and often and cruised to a series-opening win with a victory in the realm of 7-2 or maybe even as much as 9-3...and let's CRUSH yet another HUGE MLB 5 UNIT HAMMER!
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Ross Benjamin
NBA 4% Top Play
Boston Celtics -4.5
The Celtics are coming off an embarrassing 101-89 loss in Game 1. There were a lot of rarities that occurred for that to happen which are highly improbable to occur again in Game 2.
It was just the 5th time that Boston had scored 95 points or less since 12/10/21. The good news for Celtics backers is their team has gone 4-0 SU&ATS since that time immediately after scoring 95 or less and won by an average of 15.3 points per contest. Despite that low-scoring output, Boston still was a respectable 18-50 (36%) on their 3-point shot attempts. Unfortunately, they went a horrendous 10-34 from inside the 3-point line. That’s an extremely rare occurrence for an NBA team to not only make just 10 two-point field goal attempts in a game, but also nearly double that output from 3-point territory, and especially so for a quality group like the Celtics.
Lastly, the Celtics shot a miserable 33.3% from the field overall. Boston has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 this season following a contest in which they shot less than 40% and outscored those opponents by an average of 15.2 points per game. Conversely, since the start of last season, Milwaukee is 0-4 SU&ATS after holding their opponent to 35% or worse shooting in their previous contest, and they were outscored by an average of 11.5 points per game.
Give me Boston minus the points for a 4% Top Play wager.
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Joseph D’Amico
5* GSW ML
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Dave Cokin
4%- San Francisco Giants +125 C Rodon (LHP), J Urias (LHP) Must Start
3%- Los Angeles Angels -118 N Syndergaard (RHP), M Wacha (RHP) Must Start
2%- 1H Kansas City Royals -110 D Hudson (RHP), B Keller (RHP) Must Start
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Bobby Ligs
2%- Boston Celtics -4.5 (-110)
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Adam Trigger
5%- Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-120) J Ryan (RHP), B Zimmermann (LHP) Must Start
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The Prez
4%- Los Angeles Angels -119 N Syndergaard (RHP), M Wacha (RHP) Must Start
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Ralph Michaels
4% : Los Angeles Angels -119 N Syndergaard (RHP), M Wacha (RHP) Must Start
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VSiN Hosts & Guests
THE NIGHT CAP
Shaun King
Flames -1.5 vs Stars (+115)
Jeremy Plonk
Zandon to win Kentucky Derby +485
THE LOOKAHEAD
Scott Seidenberg
Rangers (-130) vs. Penguins
Avalanche (-125) PUCK LINE vs Predators
A NUMBERS GAME
Will Hill
Angels -115 vs. Red Sox
Paul Carr
Villarreal-Liverpool under 2.5 +115
Man City +105 over Real Madrid (90+stoppage time)
Mark Borchard
White Sox -132 over Cubs
Rays -125 over A's
Braves +105 over Mets (Game 1)
THE EDGE
Matt Youmans
Blue Jays (Manoah) (-130) vs. Yankees
Wells Fargo Championship
Corey Conners 20/1
Abraham Ancer 28/1
Seamus Power 35/1
Cameron Young 42/1
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #961 San Francisco +120 (Rodon)
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jack jones
15
boston red sox
15
brewers RL
20
tampa bay rays
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Andrew McInnis
(43) Pittsburgh Penguins at (44) New York Rangers
2% Total Under 5.5 (-125)
(45) Washington Capitals at (46) Florida Panthers
3% Total Over 6.5 (-135)
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Big Al McMordie
NBA GOY
Celtics -4.5
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The Winners Circle – Tuesday Sports Plays
NBA BASKETBALL
Play Boston -4.5 over Milwaukee
Play Golden State -2 over Memphis
~~~
NHL HOCKEY
Play Pittsburgh +130 over New York Rangers
Play Colorado -315 over Nashville
~~~
MLB BASEBALL
Play Minnesota -160 over Baltimore
Play Philadelphia -170 over Texas
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Brandon Lang
60 Dimes - Memphis Grizzlies +2
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John Bollman
SEATTLE @ HOUSTON | 05/03 | 8:10 PM EDT
SEATTLE 140
ANALYSIS: The Astros got Jose Altuve back yesterday, but they are still struggling to score. They are ranked just 18th in the league in wOBA against righties. Chris Flexen has pitched very well in his first four starts including a quality start against the Astros earlier this season. He has struggled against the Astros in the past but he will have a rested Mariners bullpen behind him after none of their top arms pitched yesterday. Christian Javier has pitched well so far this season but he still isn’t completely stretched out so the Astros bullpen should play a big part tonight after pitching a lot last night. I like the value on the Mariners on the road tonight.
ARIZONA @ MIAMI | 05/03 | 6:40 PM EDT
MIAMI -185
ANALYSIS: We had the right idea with the Marlins scoring on the Dbacks bullpen yesterday, we just came up one run short. However, the Diamondbacks strength this season has been their starting pitching and they have probably their worst starter going tonight in Humberto Castellanos. Trevor Rogers starts for the Marlins and he will face a team that is dead last in wOBA against lefties. Rogers struggled to start the season but he has picked it up in his last couple starts. The Marlins hit righties decently well and they have a much better bullpen than the Dbacks especially after the Dbacks used their top arms yesterday. Ian Kennedy and Noe Ramirez would be pitching their 4th game in 5 days while Mark Melancon and JB Wendelken are on the COVID IL. The latter two could be back tonight but that still leaves their bullpen very thin after cutting rosters to 26 yesterday. This should be over -200, take the Marlins at home.
N.Y. YANKEES @ TORONTO | 05/03 | 7:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -135
ANALYSIS: It’s Alek Manoah day in Toronto, he is 4-0 on the season with a 1.44 ERA. He has also faced the Yankees three times in his career, and he is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA. More importantly, the Blue Jays bullpen is now rested while the Yankees bullpen is a bit more worked after last night. Jameson Taillon has been solid this season, but he still hasn’t been able to pitch more than 5 innings this season. I like the Blue Jays at home.
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Mike Barner
GOLDEN ST. @ MEMPHIS | 05/03 | 9:30 PM EDT
GOLDEN ST. -130
ANALYSIS: These two teams went down to the wire in Game 1 with the Warriors pulling out the victory. The scary part for the Grizzlies is, they lost a game in which they held Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to a combined 14-for-39 (35.9 percent) shooting from the field. Also, Draymond Green only played 17 minutes because of an ejection. This could be another close game that comes down to the final minutes, but I like the Warriors to take a 2-0 series lead before heading home.
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Zack Cimini
WASHINGTON @ COLORADO | 05/03 | 8:40 PM EDT
WASHINGTON 120
ANALYSIS: Plenty of offense could be in store Tuesday with two struggling pitchers in Nationals starter Erick Fedde and Rockies starter German Marquez.. Marquez has been in a decline since appearing in last year's All-Star game. In three straight starts this year, he has allowed four runs. Take the underdog Nationals, who should feast once again on Marquez.
L.A. ANGELS @ BOSTON | 05/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -125
ANALYSIS: On Tuesday, the Angels may have the most difficult spot on the entire slate. On Monday, they lost 3-0 to the Chicago White Sox, and now will face a rested Red Sox team. The Angels will need their new ace, Noah Syndergaard, to deliver once again. Grab the Angels as Boston's early-season struggles continue.
+530 7-2 IN LAST 9 MLB ML PICKS
MILWAUKEE @ BOSTON | 05/03 | 7:00 PM EDT
BOSTON -5
ANALYSIS: In Game 1, the Boston Celtics were caught off guard by a Bucks team that would not back down. Expect quick adjustments to be made, as the Celtics will play better half-court defense. Isolation basketball by the Milwaukee Bucks should bog down their offense. Take Boston in a bounce-back spot for Game 2.
+1030 18-7 IN LAST 25 NBA PICKS
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Matt Severance
TEXAS @ PHILADELPHIA | 05/03 | 6:45 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -160
ANALYSIS: Since Pirates-Tigers was rained out, we'll add this one -- although I probably would have regardless. History will be made in Philly when Ranger Suarez throws his first pitch against Texas as he’ll become the first player named Ranger to play an MLB game against a team called the Rangers. (Perhaps the most useless info I've ever shared.) While Suarez has a fairly disappointing 4.42 ERA on the year, he comes off a quality start and the Phils are 4-0 in his outings. Philadelphia is 8-5 at home. The last-place Rangers apparently will activate Jon Gray (0-1, 7.00) to start.
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