Tuesday 6/28/22 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL, NCAAF, CFL & WNBA games
mlb8 club
Seattle Mariners – Baltimore Orioles
Over 7.5
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Tony Finn
3% Phillies -115 (good to -130)
5% Blue Jays -135 (good to -150)
3% Rangers -120 (good to -140)
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Hakeem Profit
WNBA
1% Washington Mystics -8.0 (-110)
1% Minnesota Lynx -135
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Stephen Oh
SAN DIEGO @ ARIZONA | 06/28 | 9:40 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -115
ANALYSIS: My model says the Padres win in over 60 percent of the simulations, giving you strong value with them at this number. San Diego had a rough weekend series against Philadelphia, losing three of the four contests. But the Padres swept a three-game set versus Arizona prior to that, outscoring the Diamondbacks 17-7. San Diego has won six straight meetings with Arizona since losing the season opener. Take the Padres.
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Matt Severance
MIAMI @ ST. LOUIS | 06/28 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -159
ANALYSIS: We won Monday on this matchup and I see no reason we shouldn't again Tuesday as Cards pitcher Dakota Hudson has a 2.67 ERA at home. He has a 0.93 ERA in 9.2 career innings vs. Miami. Marlins southpaw pitcher Braxton Garrett is nothing special with a 4.85 ERA in his 59.1 career big-league innings. Excellent leadoff hitter Jazz Chisholm has missed back-to-back games with back spasms for the Marlins so perhaps he sits again. St. Louis has won six of its past eight at home vs. a lefty.
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Tuesday MLB Sharp Report
7:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (45-27) at New York Mets (47-27)
This Interleague showdown features two of the top three teams in baseball going head-to-head. In tonight's series opener, Houston taps lefty Framber Valdez (7-3, 2.90 ERA) and New York counters with righty Carlos Carrasco (8-3, 4.42 ERA). This line opened at virtual pick'em with the Astros listed as a slight -110 road favorite and the Mets a +100 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Astros at the short chalk price, steaming Houston up from -110 to -120. Non-division road favorites are 139-73 (66%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs last season against teams who did not are 290-155 (65%). When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 58-31 (65%). The Astros are 39-18 as a favorite, 25-16 on the road and 31-19 against righties. Houston leads the season series 2-1. The Astros are 7-2 in Valdez's last nine starts. Meanwhile, Carrasco has an ERA of 5.33 in the month of June.
8:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (35-37) at Kansas City Royals (26-46)
The Rangers won last night's series opener 10-4, taking care of business as -150 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Texas hands the ball to righty Jon Gray (3-3, 4.18 ERA) and Kansas City counters with fellow righty Jonathan Heasley (1-3, 4.14 ERA). This line opened with the Rangers listed as a -130 road favorite and the Royals a +115 home dog. Pros have hammered Texas, steaming the Rangers up from -130 to -145. Non-division road favorites are 139-73 (66%) this season. The Royals are just 19-38 as dogs, 13-24 at home and 16-32 against righties. Texas holds a big edge on the mound, sporting a team ERA of 3.94 compared to 5.02 for Kansas City. The Rangers are 9-6 over their last 15 games. Meanwhile, the Royals are just 6-9 over their last 15 games. Texas is +9 in run differential. Kansas City is -99. The Rangers lead the season series 3-1. The Rangers have won Gray's last three starts and Gray has an ERA of 2.64 in June.
9:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (45-30) at Arizona Diamondbacks (33-41)
Both of these NL West rivals are looking to rebound from series losses. The Padres just dropped two of three at home against the Phillies while the Diamondbacks just dropped two of three at home against the Tigers. In tonight's series opener, San Diego starts lefty Sean Manaea (3-3, 3.87 ERA) and Arizona sends out righty Zac Gallen (4-2, 2.92 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick'em, with the Padres listed as a slight -108 road favorite and the Snakes a -102 home dog. Sharps have laid the short chalk with San Diego, steaming the Padres up from -108 to -116. Road favorites are 252-149 (63%) this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 58-31 (65%). San Diego also has value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Padres are 29-21 as a favorite, 24-14 on the road and 28-22 against righties. San Diego will lean on their bats, hitting .242 while Arizona sits at .216. The Padres lead the season series 6-1. San Diego is +64 in run differential. Arizona is -48.
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Totals Guru
Marlins vs. Cardinals U 9
A's vs. Yankees U 8
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Bryan Leonard
5% MLB Grand Slam
San Diego Padres -104 S Manaea (LHP), Z Gallen (RHP) Must Start
The Padres have been at their best when playing on the road with a 24-14 record. They swept the Diamondbacks 3-0 a week ago, outscoring them by a combined 17-7 margin. That’s six straight San Diego wins in this series.
Arizona ranks 27th in baseball with an 85 wRC+ on the season vs lefties. They are only 18-21 at home this year and are a very weak 13-26 when playing teams with a winning record.
Both starters have been very good this year. The key numbers of xwOBA, xBA and xSLG being virtually equal. We prefer Manaea’s pitch mix as he doesn’t use a fastball, he throws his sinker 62% of the time. Gallen on the other hand throws his 4 steamers 47% of the time. Every Major League hitter can turn on the fastball, and we saw it yesterday with Tristan McKenzie in Cleveland.
The Padres have the Dodgers on deck, so it’s imperative to grab these winnable games. Surprised this line is in the pick ‘em range, and we take full advantage.
PLAY SAN DIEGO
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Brian Bitler
9* MLB Tuesday Executive Order
Miami Marlins +130
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Jeff Hochman
5* MLB GOW
Cleveland Indians +100
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Rob vinciletti
5* pliskova
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Totals Guru
ADDED
Phils u 7.5
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JM Sports
5* MLB GOW
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-143)
5* #975 Baltimore Orioles (+1.5 runs -143) over Seattle Mariners (w/ Kremer & Ray)
Hard to imagine that of late, the Baltimore Orioles are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They have won 12 out of their L13 games on the run line, but at 10-3 overall in those last 13 games, with a lot of them against divisional opponents. Dean Kremer may have only started 4 games so far for the Orioles but Baltimore is a perfect 4-0 on the run line in his starts and he has put up an impressive ERA of just 0.84 on the road in two starts, an ERA of 0.54 in the last 3 starts overall, and he hasn't allowed an ER in his night starts. The team is 20-7 on the run line against LHP, putting up nearly 5 runs per game.
Robbie Ray took the loss in his last outing against Baltimore, allowing 4 ER in 5 IP on June 1st. The Mariners are just 2-5 on the run line in Robbie Ray's L7 starts and he has won just 2 games on the RL when taking on the Orioles in the past, in 6 attempts. All while they have covered under 29% of games on the run line against teams under .500 in the last 2 seasons.
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Hot Shot Sports
MLB
3* #961 San Diego -110
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Spartan
1* Pirates
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IC
4* Red Sox-Bluejays Over 9.5
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Strike Point
7-unit - La Dodgers -1.5 -145
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Goodfella
1* Reds 1st H
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11th Hour Sports Picks
MLB
4u 971 Rangers -150,
3u 962 Diamondbacks -105.
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WUnderdog
mlb
SanFrancisco -195 v Detroit
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Micah Roberts
SAN DIEGO @ ARIZONA | 06/28 | 9:40 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -110
ANALYSIS: The Padres have won the last six meetings in this rivalry. The Padres just lost three of four at home to the Phillies after sweeping three from Arizona. This same pitching matchup was won by Sean Manaea and the Padres, 3-2. After a sluggish start for Manaea with the Padres, they’ve won five of his last six starts. Back the Padres to win.
MIAMI @ ST. LOUIS | 06/28 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -145
ANALYSIS: I can only bet Dakota Hudson at home, where he looks like an ace. On the road? No thanks. The Cardinals have lost three of his last four starts, and three of those outings were on the road. He got beat up in Milwaukee during his last turn, allowing five runs. Home keeps him relaxed and focused as evidenced by his 2.67 ERA in six starts, with St. Louis winning five of them. Paul Goldschmidt has recorded 20 hits in his last 50 at-bats. Take the Cardinals to win.
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Larry Hartstein
HOUSTON @ N.Y. METS | 06/28 | 7:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -120
ANALYSIS: The Mets' Carlos Carrasco was pulled from his start last Wednesday at Houston due to back tightness. While the MRI came back clean, how effective he'll be tonight remains an open question. I'll back Houston to get to him again after the Astros put up five runs and three homers in just 2.1 innings last week. Behind a strong start from Framber Valdez, look for Houston to win for the 11th time in its last 15 road games.
TEXAS @ KANSAS CITY | 06/28 | 8:10 PM EDT
TEXAS -150
ANALYSIS: The second-place Rangers have won four of six as they inch toward .500, and I'll back them tonight despite the hefty price. The Royals have dropped three in a row, are 13-24 at home, and are trying to develop young players. Texas starter Jon Gray. has pitched better than his numbers indicate, while the Royals' Jonathan Heasley has pitched worse than his numbers would suggest. Look for Texas to win for the 12th time in its last 16 games in K.C.
MIAMI @ ST. LOUIS | 06/28 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -145
ANALYSIS: The Cardinals rank sixth in OPS versus lefties (.773), compared to 14th vs. right-handers (.718). Tonight they face lefty Braxton Garrett, who enters with a WHIP of 1.70. St. Louis starter Dakota Hudson owns a 0.93 ERA in three career appearances versus Miami and might not have to face Marlins leadoff hitter Jazz Chisholm; he's missed two straight games due to back spasms. Look for the Cards to make it five straight home wins against Miami.
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Zack Cimini
CHI. WHITE SOX @ L.A. ANGELS | 06/28 | 9:38 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -130
ANALYSIS: After getting back to .500 on June 21, the White Sox have lost five of their last six contests. The team also has dropped five of RHP Johnny Cueto's last six starts. Take the Angels as they will produce enough at the plate to offset any issues from rookie RHP Chase Silseth.
BOSTON @ TORONTO | 06/28 | 7:07 PM EDT
BOSTON 120
ANALYSIS: As heavy favorites on Monday, the Blue Jays crushed the Red Sox 7-2. It marked the first time in 13 games that Toronto allowed fewer than four runs. As great as Ross Stripling’s month of June has been, he has had issues against Boston. In three starts against the Red Sox last season, he surrendered 16 runs in only 9 2/3 innings. Take the underdog Red Sox.
PITTSBURGH @ WASHINGTON | 06/28 | 7:05 PM EDT
WASHINGTON -125
ANALYSIS: Neither Patrick Corbin nor Jose Quintana have been able to work deep into games this season. A positive for Corbin is that he pitched an effective 5 1/3 innings against the Pirates earlier this season, allowing just three hits and two runs. Additionally, Pittsburgh's bullpen was overextended with four innings of work on Monday. Take the Nationals to win.
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John Bollman
SAN DIEGO @ ARIZONA | 06/28 | 9:40 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -110
ANALYSIS: The Diamondbacks are 8-15 this month and they were just swept by the Padres in San Diego. Those games were all without Manny Machado as well. Zac Gallen has pitched well this season, but the Padres saw him the last time around the rotation. Sean Manaea has also pitched well this season, so I think the starting pitching is mostly a wash. But the Padres have the 5th best bullpen ERA in June while the Diamondbacks have the 22nd. The Padres are also 6-1 against the Diamondbacks this season. The Diamondbacks struggle against lefties, and the Padres have been dominating this matchup. The Padres are also better on the road at 24-14. I like the Padres on the road.
PITTSBURGH @ WASHINGTON | 06/28 | 7:05 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH 105
ANALYSIS: These two pitchers faced each other earlier this season and neither starter pitched well. However, Jose Quintana had pitched well lately coming off a quality start against a good lefty hitting team. Well, the Nats struggle against lefties with all their left-handed bats. Patrick Corbin has been terrible this season and he has allowed 19 runs in 19.1 IP this month. The Pirates are terrible on the road at 2-11 this month but the Nats are terrible at home at 4-8 this month. The Nats could be without two of their top three relievers in Carl Edwards Jr. and Kyle Finnegan after pitching three of the last four nights, while the Pirates should have their top two relievers available to go multiple innings tonight. They weren’t available last night which is why the Pirates ended up blowing the save. Patrick Corbin is one of the least profitable pitchers in the Majors. I think the wrong team is favored here.
HOUSTON @ N.Y. METS | 06/28 | 7:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -120
ANALYSIS: Framber Valdez has been a quality start machine this season pitching one in 11 straight starts. The Mets also didn’t see him when they traveled to Houston last week. Carlos Carrasco has struggled to a 5.33 ERA this month and he was hit hard by the Astros in Houston last time around. The Mets are much better at home, but the Astros have played just fine on the road this season at 25-16. The Astros also could have honestly taken all four games of that series from the Yankees had it not been for two blown saves. The Mets are much worse against lefties and Valdez is one of the toughest lefties in the league. Jeff McNeil should be back in the lineup but it’s still a tough ask for him to go up against the lefty. Michael Brantley could be out again, but Jeremy Pena is back in the lineup. I like the Astros on the road.
BOSTON @ TORONTO | 06/28 | 7:07 PM EDT
BOSTON 120
ANALYSIS: I think the Red Sox went into yesterday’s game knowing they could get blown out with the spot starter, but they have one of their best starters going today. Michael Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA this season and that includes six innings of one run allowed in Toronto earlier this season. The Red Sox are without Tanner Houck and Jarren Duran because they are not vaccinated, but they have plenty of other reliable relievers. Ross Stripling has been pitching well and he pitched well against The Blue Jays earlier this season, but he tends to struggle against the tougher lineups in the league. I trust the Red Sox bullpen a lot more than the Blue Jays right now and I think if Stripling comes out early, they’ll have trouble. I like the value in the Red Sox.
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kelso
15 astros
15 cards
15 padres
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VSiN Hosts & Guests
THE NIGHT CAP
Shaun King
Cowboys under 9 wins +215
THE LOOKAHEAD
Ben Brown
Bengals (+190) TO WIN AFC North
Dolphins UNDER 9 wins -10
Lions OVER 6.5 Wins -115
CeeDee Lamb to lead the NFL in Receiving Yards (16/1)
Aidan Hutchinson +500 TO WIN Defensive Rookie of the year
Colts -125 to win the AFC South
Brad Thomas
Colts TO WIN AFC South (-125)
Vikings TO WIN NFC North (+275)
Rams TO WIN NFC West (+125)
John Deere Classic: Webb Simpson TO WIN (10/1)
John Deere Classic: John Huh TO WIN (46/1)
Jason Weingarten
Cubs (-110) vs Reds
Braves (PK) at Phillies
Pirates (+117) at Nationals
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Pauly Howard
Astros (-120) at Mets
Ole Miss O7.5 Wins
Mitch Moss
Braves (+105) at Phillies
Astros (-120) at Mets
A NUMBERS GAME
Dan Weston
Griekspoor +5.5 games -110 v Alcaraz
Mark Borchard
Nationals -117 over Pirates
Marlins +130 over Cardinals
Blue Jays -135 over Red Sox
THE LOMBARDI LINE
Will Hill
Astros (-120) > Mets
Giants/Tigers Under 3.5 (-105) - First 5 Innings
THE EDGE
Matt Youmans
John Deere Classic
Maverick McNealy 31/1
Scott Stallings 37/1
Cameron Champ 55/1
Ryan Moore 85/1
Diamondbacks (Zac Gallen) (+106) vs Padres
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Dave Cokin
MLB Tuesday Best Bet
4% Marlins/Cardinals 1H Over 4' (-120) - Garrett/Hudson must start
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The Money Team Sports (TMT)
4* Toronto -136
2* Texas -1'
2* Cubs - 116
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IC
WNBA
4-Unit Play. #607. Take Under 153.5 Washington vs. Atlanta (Tuesday @ 7pm est)
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