Tuesday 8/10/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAF, MLB & NFL games
Stephen Oh
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | 08/10 | 7:05 PM EDT
DETROIT -105
ANALYSIS: My model says the Tigers win in over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value on them at this number. Baltimore is in the midst of a five-game losing streak and has dropped seven of its last 10 contests, including two against Detroit. Tigers RHP Casey Mize had one of his best outings of the season versus the Orioles on July 29, when he allowed an unearned run and four hits over seven innings. Baltimore LHP Keegan Akin has yielded four or more runs in each of his last five starts. Take the Tigers.
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JM SPORT
Game: (971) Oakland Athletics at (972) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Aug 10 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Oakland Athletics -154 S Manaea (LHP), T Mckenzie (RHP) Must Start
4 unit Oakland Athletics (-155) over Cleveland Indians (Manaea/Mckenzie)--
Not very often do you see a team play B2B games that start off a series, but with the make up game, Cleveland has now played 3 teams in 3 days. Oakland on the other hand had a day to recover, and in the MLB TY teams that are AF of 5.00, 13-5 vs. a SP w/ ERA > 5, and 9-2 vs. NDIV & a SP w/ an ERA over 5.00 (5-0 vs. RHP). They have also played very well with Manaea on the mound, the Athletics are 11-4 in his L15 as a F (11-2 w/ line 5, that along side a stat line of 4-4, w/ 2.64 ERA on the road and opponents hitting under .200 is a good combination for Oakland. 11-4 w/ a day of rest, and 7-2 as an AF vs. NDIV is promising for Oakland. Cleveland on the other hand is coming off a good game on Monday, but this may be a different story. Mckenzie is on the mound for Cleveland and this year his ERA is just shy of 6.00 (5.89), including 6.08 ERA in the L15 games, 0-1 @ H w/ 5.40 ERA (7 starts), an 0-4 record w/ 6.52 ERA in 8 starts at night and 0-2 w/ a 6.86 ERA in 4 starts since the All-Star Break. Even though the Indians have faired well at home, going against a team with more rest is tough, but there are definitely more factors. CLE is 2-7 after scoring more then 8 runs (lost L6), 3-9 in the L12 off B2B W's, 2-6 after winning by 5 or more, 1-10 following a game w/ more then 10 hits, including 0-8 in the L8, 2-7 following a W w/ > 10 hits (1-6 in L7), and they are 2-8 after a W w/ 3+ HR's. Regardless off the statistics specifically they have lost 5 straight as a HD off a W, 2-7 as a HD vs. LHP (allowing over 7 runs/game), they are also 0-5 as a HD vs. LHP w/ ERA < 3.50, 8-16 as a D vs. LHP. Mckenzie vs. Manaea is a pitching mismatch and I don't foresee the Indians winning B2B opening games of a series!
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teamronaldinho
ENGLAND: EFL Cup
Derby – Salford
Derby Over 1.5
Odds : 2.00
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pickstennis
WTA : Montreal (Canada)
Kvitova – Ferro
Under 20.5
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost with the Royals on Monday. Season record now 66-62.
Tuesday's play (20 units) is on the Tigers.
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PickersMx
Mushu
100 Dimes
Over 10 White Sox/Twins
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Larry Hartstein
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | 08/10 | 7:05 PM EDT
DETROIT -105
ANALYSIS: The Orioles are 17-34 at home and start lefty Keegan Akin, who has not started since July 16 and sports a 7.66 ERA. He's not likely to go deep, and then will turn it over to a Baltimore bullpen that ranks 28th with a 5.38 ERA. Detroit's Casey Mize faced the Orioles on July 29 and allowed one unearned run and four hits over seven innings. He's actually been slightly better on the road this season. Back the Tigers.
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The Prez
4% - Cincinnati Reds/Atlanta Braves over 9.5
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XS Sports Picks Tuesday
Last 46 Picks 26-20 (57%) +$32,220
MLB:
5* Chicago WS Over 10.5 -110 (8pm)
4* Detroit -120 (7pm)
4* Pittsburgh +120 (7pm)
2* Chicago Cubs GM1 +170 (2:20pm)
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John Bollman
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | 08/10 | 7:05 PM EDT
DETROIT -121
ANALYSIS: I have been waiting for lineups to come out lately, but I wanted to get on this play because I think it will only increase (its gone from -110 to -121 in the time of writing this post). The Tigers are worse on the road, but the Orioles are worse at home. The Orioles have lost five straight games when they’ve had the lead in at least three. Keegan Akin could be used as an opener but he has struggled all season and the Tigers have hit lefties well lately. Casey Mize will give four or five solid innings. Take the Tigers.
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Dave Essler
3* GOM
Yankees Over 10
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Bryan Leonard
5% top pick - Detroit Tigers - Action
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Scott Spreitzer MLB
5 - Tigers -135 (First 5 Inn) over Orioles
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Matt Severance
FEATURED PICK
MILWAUKEE @ CHI. CUBS | 08/10 | 2:20 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS +1.5
ANALYSIS: Game 1 of a DH so only scheduled for seven innings. FiveThirtyEight gives the Brewers a 56 percent chance of winning, which would mean only around -130 on the moneyline -- yet they are priced -190. Thus, I have to take Cubs runline at -105 simply for value. Yes, Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta has been great but a bit worse on the road and during the day. The Brewers aren't starting Christian Yelich, Omar Narvaez or Rowdy Tellez. That's some decent thunder on the bench. It's the MLB starting debut of Cubs lefty Justin Steele, but he does have a 2.03 ERA in 13.1 relief innings. He has been stretched out in Triple-A, where he had a 0.87 ERA with 27 strikeouts in his final five starts.
L.A. ANGELS @ TORONTO | 08/10 | 6:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -145
ANALYSIS: First game of a doubleheader so only scheduled for seven innings. And Toronto is the home team just for Game 1 even though it's at Angel Stadium because it's a makeup game from Dunedin, Fla; LAA will then be the usual home side for Game 2. Jays starter Steven Matz comes off his best outing of the year, throwing six shutout innings vs. Cleveland. The Halos' Chris Rodriguez (2-1, 3.86) is a converted reliever. Toronto is 6-1 in its past seven vs. a right-handed starter. The lineups just aren't close.
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Ben Burns
Minnesota +1.5
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Zack Cimini
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 08/10 | 7:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -121
ANALYSIS: This series is an opportunity for the Red Sox to chip away at the Rays' four-game divisional lead. I expect the Red Sox to get back on track, led by starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez. He has become more consistent with his swing-and-miss stuff; he had a season-high 10 strikeouts in his last outing against the Tigers. Grab the Red Sox.
TEXAS @ SEATTLE | 08/10 | 10:10 PM EDT
SEATTLE -1.5
ANALYSIS: Rangers starter Kolby Allard has not won a start since June 12. That's a string of nine straight starts, which is why a subpar pitcher, Logan Gilbert, and the Mariners are such a big favorite. Furthermore, Allard’s struggles include a recent poor outing against the Mariners on July 30 in which he gave up six earned runs. Take the run line on Seattle.
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Justin Perri
FEATURED PICK
MILWAUKEE @ CHI. CUBS | 08/10 | 2:20 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -190
ANALYSIS: Milwaukee RHP Freddy Peralta has been great this season, allowing more than three runs just once. He has yielded five runs and registered 25 strikeouts over 16 innings against the Cubs already this year. Chicago has posted only one victory in its last 15 games against teams with winning records. I’m paying the juice and taking the Brewers to win. I do understand sitting this one out if you don't like prices this high, but I'll fade the Cubs against winning teams until it bites me.
MIAMI 3 @ SAN DIEGO 8 | 08/09 | 10:10 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -1.5
WIN
ANALYSIS: Padres RHP Joe Musgrove has been on fire recently, as he's allowed just five hits over his last two starts. On July 23, he limited Miami to two runs en route to victory. The Marlins will be dealing with a massive elevation change, having played in Colorado on Sunday, and that should make it all the more difficult to hit Musgrove's slider/curveball combo. San Diego's offense is elite, even without Fernando Tatis Jr., and should be able to score on Miami RHP Zach Thompson, who allowed three runs over five innings the last time he faced the Padres. Take San Diego -1.5 runs at -115.
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Elite Sports Picks
N.Y. Yankees (Cortes) -155 over Kansas City (Lynch)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Detroit (Mize) -115 over Baltimore (Akin)
Range: +105 to -135
3* L.A. Dodgers (Scherzer) -155 over Philadelphia (Nola)
Range: -135 to -175
3* Texas (Allard)/Seattle (Gilbert) OVER 8
Range: 7.5 to 8.5
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National Sports Service
4* Colorado (Gray) +1.5 runs -125 over Houston (Odorizzi)
3* L.A. Dodgers (Scherzer) -155 over Philadelphia (Nola)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 08/10/21
4 Unit --> Boston (Rodriguez) -130 over Tampa Bay (Patino)
3 Unit --> Oakland (Manaea) -160 over Cleveland (McKenzie)
3 Unit --> Texas (Allard)/Seattle (Gilbert) OVER 8
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 08/10/21
4★ N.Y. Yankees (Cortes) -155 over Kansas City (Lynch)
3★ Minnesota (Jax) +120 over Chicago White Sox (Keuchel)
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John Bollman
MILWAUKEE @ CHI. CUBS | 08/10 | 2:20 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -180
ANALYSIS: Freddy Peralta vs. Justin Steele . The Brewers are 9-3 against the Cubs this season and 4-2 in Wrigley Field. Justin Steele has been good as a reliever all season but hasn’t pitched in the Majors since May as he was building up. Freddy Peralta has been pitching very well lately, and he has pitched well against the Cubs all season. I like the Brewers to take Game 1 of this doubleheader.
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Pickswise Sports MLB Best Bets
MLB
3* - Blue Jays -160 (Game #1)
3* - Tigers -120
3* - Phillies/Dodgers Under 9 [-120]
3* - White Sox -1.5runs [-110]
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Jack Winningham
MLB
Oakland
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Sportsline Computer
MLB
Milwaukee -190
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VegasGuru
BlueJays ML (LOCK OF THE MONTH)
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Mark Hanson
Tigers/Orioles under 10(100U)
Tigers/Orioles under 5.5(50U)
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VegasEliteSports
BlueJays-Angels over 7.5(7innings) Game#2(5U)
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Top Flight Sports
Twins +1.5 (4u)
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #957/958 Cincinnati/Atlanta OVER 9.5
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Matt Severance
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND | 08/10 | 7:10 PM EDT
OAKLAND -140
ANALYSIS: Oakland is 12-4 coming off a day off (second-best winning percentage in MLB) and is hitting significantly better on the road this year than at home. Ace lefty Sean Manaea also is much better away as he has the third-lowest road ERA in the American League (2.64) and second-lowest road opponents' batting average (.198) and OPS (.565). Cleveland's Triston McKenzie is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA at home and 0-4 with a 6.52 ERA at night.
CINCINNATI @ ATLANTA | 08/10 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -115
ANALYSIS: Major travel disadvantage for the Reds as after playing Sunday at home had to fly to Cleveland for a makeup game Monday, laid an egg there to see their five-game winning streak end and then fly to Atlanta to open this series. The Braves were off Monday. Two big injury/rest notes here: Reds All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker (.307, 23 HR, 67 RBIs) is not starting, while Braves All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman is back from a non-COVID illness. Cincy pitcher Sonny Gray has been shaky in three of his past four outings, while Atlanta's Drew Smyly rarely gives up more than three runs -- although he rarely goes more than five innings, either. The Braves are 5-1 in their past six series openers.
L.A. ANGELS @ TORONTO | 08/10 | 6:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -145
ANALYSIS: First game of a doubleheader so only scheduled for seven innings. And Toronto is the home team just for Game 1 even though it's at Angel Stadium because it's a makeup game from Dunedin, Fla; LAA will then be the usual home side for Game 2. Jays starter Steven Matz comes off his best outing of the year, throwing six shutout innings vs. Cleveland. The Halos' Chris Rodriguez (2-1, 3.86) is a converted reliever. Toronto is 6-1 in its past seven vs. a right-handed starter. The lineups just aren't close
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John Bollman
ST. LOUIS @ PITTSBURGH | 08/10 | 7:05 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH +120
ANALYSIS: JA Happ against Steven Brault. Happ has actually been much better since being traded but the Cardinals are 23-31 on the road while the Pirates are 23-30 at home. Brault only allowed one run in four innings in his first start this season. The Pirates are ranked 28th in the league in wOBA against lefties but the Cardinals are ranked just 20th. Take the home dog.
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Jeff Hochman
CINCINNATI @ ATLANTA | 08/10 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -105
ANALYSIS: The Reds will be playing their third different team in as many days. Seems tough. Cincinnati is ranked No. 24 in OPS against left-handed starters this season. Sonny Gray's ERA is 8.16 over his past three starts. The Braves have played well since the trade deadline (6-2), and I like them in this spot.
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H&H Sports
MLB
Triple Dime - Red Sox/Rays Over 9.5 [-115]
Double Dime - Athletics -139
Double Dime - Padres/Marlins Over 7.5 [-118]
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Goodfella
GOM
1st 5 Innings Detroit Tigers
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