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(@shazman)
Posts: 59389
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Tuesday 8/18/20 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL

 
Posted : August 18, 2020 9:29 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 59389
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Stephen Oh

INDIANA +4
MIAMI @ INDIANA | 8/18 | 4:00 PM EDT
6:33 PM
According to my model, the Pacers cover the spread in almost 60 percent of the simulations. Indiana won six of its eight games in the bubble, including a 109-92 triumph over the Heat in the finale on Friday. The loss was the fourth in five contests for Miami, which won the first three meetings between the teams in 2019-20. Look for the Pacers to draw first blood in the series.

37-9 IN LAST 46 NBA PICKS | +2708
12-5 IN LAST 17 IND ATS PICKS | +651

7-1 IN LAST 8 MIA ATS PICKS | +589

CALGARY +105
CALGARY @ DALLAS | 8/18 | 5:30 PM EDT
6:13 PM
My model says Calgary wins in well over 50 percent of the simulations. The Flames are anxious to get back on the ice after blowing a lead with 12 seconds remaining in the third period and losing in overtime on Sunday. Calgary has outscored Dallas 13-9 over the first 59 minutes in this series. Sam Bennett and rookie Dillon Dube have each scored three goals in the first four games. Look for the duo to continue producing in Game 5.

10-4 IN LAST 14 NHL ML PICKS | +435
5-2 IN LAST 7 DAL ML PICKS | +313

2-1 IN LAST 3 CGY ML PICKS | +53
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Kevin Rogers

OKC Thunder -1.5
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Michael Crosson

NBA
Bucks/Magic Over 225
Pacers/Heat Under 216.5
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Toby Maxtone-Smith

UEFA Champions League
Paris Saint-Germain -150
Bayern Munich -2 goals (-110)
Bayern Munich/Lyon Over 3.5 (-115)
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FEZZIK | NBA SIDES TUE, 08/18/20 - 1:30 PM
762 MIL -12.0 (-110) William Hill vs 761 ORL

double-dime bet

Analysis:

We have seen the Favorites ROARING in the playoffs so far, and this is complete mismatch, AND Mil no doubt will have extra motivation off a subpar start to the year............

Re: Series Prices: 1 play

PORTLAND +400 risk 1 unit vs. Lakers
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Posted : August 18, 2020 9:34 am
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Posts: 59389
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Steve Merril

4% Lakers -6

-Portland enters the playoffs after going 7-2 in the bubble; all were must-win games; flat here

-offense scored 124 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games; regression against a better defense

-Trail Blazers' defense has been non-existent throughout the bubble; nothing changes in this game

-Los Angeles was not good in the bubble; major turnaround coming; expect a big win in Game 1

-offense came around in their last 2 games with 246 total points scored; terrific matchup here

-Lakers defense held their first 4 bubble opponents to 108 points or less when at full strength

4% Play LAKERS (-).
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Andy Lang

NBA PLAYER PROP

3% Nikola Vucevic (ORL) under 20.5 points -104

Nikola Vucevic under 20.5 points -104 Vucevic can put up some points, and in fact he’s scored 21 points the last 2 times these teams have played but that was before COVID and that was regular season. Milwaukee is by far the best team in terms of interior defense only giving up 38.7 points a game in the paint. The way to beat Milwaukee is to hit a lot of long range shots, and while Vucevic can shoot from 3 at a decent percentage occasionally, it’s not the strong part of his game. I’m not sure how Orlando plans to attack Milwaukee, but they’re going to have to get shots from their guards and forwards, and it’s not going to be through Nikola. I expect him to be involved, but to see the number of shots for him go down, and his point total to be around the 15 point range. Even with Milwaukee not playing their starters at full minutes throughout the bubble, they’ve only allowed one starting center get over the 20 point mark, and that was the game Giannis was suspended. They also let Porzingus get to 26 points, but that was in overtime…I see a long night for Vucivic and the Magic.
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Alan Scozzari

Guaranteed A WAGER
Champions League
Leipzig +0,5 +109

Tip of the day A WAGER
Champions League
Dynamo Brest (Blr) - FC Astana (Kaz)
UNDER 2,5 -127
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ROOT

Perfect play- Bucks

Inner circle- Rays
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Mike Barner
NBA SPECIALIST
10:53 AM

OKLAHOMA CITY -1.5
OKLAHOMA CITY @ HOUSTON | 8/18 | 6:30 PM EDT
This should be an exciting series. Unfortunately for Houston, it will have to start it without Russell Westbrook (quadriceps), who will miss at least the opener. That leaves the Rockets in a hole against a Thunder team that went 3-0 ATS against them this season and was 28-11 ATS away from home. Look for Oklahoma City to capitalize on Westbrook’s absence and pull out the win in Game 1.

115-66-3 IN LAST 184 NBA ATS PICKS | +4240
13-3 IN LAST 16 OKC ATS PICKS | +971

7-2 IN LAST 9 HOU ATS PICKS | +480
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Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
YESTERDAY 6:55 PM

L.A. LAKERS -5.5
PORTLAND @ L.A. LAKERS | 8/18 | 9:00 PM EDT
The Lakers looked disinterested and went 1-7 ATS in the bubble. Now we'll get their full focus against a Portland team that's uber- talented offensively but terrible defensively. Back LA to cover versus the Blazers for the sixth time in the past seven meetings.

110-86-3 IN LAST 199 NBA ATS PICKS | +1552
22-15 IN LAST 37 POR ATS PICKS | +550

17-11-1 IN LAST 29 LAL ATS PICKS | +486
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SDQL

CHI. WHITE SOX -177
DETROIT @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 8/18 | 8:10 PM EDT
9:16 AM
Detroit had so many scoring opportunities Monday, as its batters combined to strand 21 runners. This, not surprisingly, can be discouraging for bad teams. Indeed, the Tigers are 0-13 SU before game 90 as a +140-plus dog in the second game of a road series when they stranded 18 plus runners in the series opener. The White Sox are 8-0 SU in the second game of a series as a home favorite of more than -135 off a game in which they had fewer runners-left-on-base than their opponent. Finally, Chicago is 7-0 SU as a favorite off a win as a favorite in which it never trailed, winning by an average of 3.57 runs per game.

21-6 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS | +1271
3-0 IN LAST 3 CHW ML PICKS | +300

3-0 IN LAST 3 DET ML PICKS | +300

CLEVELAND -210
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH | 8/18 | 7:05 PM EDT
9:14 AM
In Carlos Carrasco’s last start, he only got two runs of support and the Tribe’s offense has paid back debts like this one. Cleveland is 16-0 before its 100th game of the season when it is off a game as a road favorite and it scored two or fewer runs for its starter in his last start. The Indians have won those games by an average score of 7.00-2.44. The Pirates are 0-21 SU as a dog of more than +135 when they are off a road game in which they were not shut out and their bullpen allowed multiple runs, as long as their opponent is not on a five-plus game losing streak. The Tribe should get plenty of runs for Cookie.

21-6 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS | +1271
4-1 IN LAST 5 CLE ML PICKS | +306

CHI. CUBS -180
ST. LOUIS @ CHI. CUBS | 8/18 | 8:15 PM EDT
9:12 AM
Chicago is 12-0 SU as a favorite of more than -135 when it is off a game as a home dog in which it had six or fewer hits. The Cubs have won these 12 games by an average of 4.75 runs, with every win by multiple runs. The Cardinals are an eye-opening 0-11 SU as a +140-plus dog vs. a divisional opponent that is ahead of them in the standings. We are on Chicago.

21-6 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS | +1271
5-0 IN LAST 5 CHC ML PICKS | +510

TAMPA BAY -111
TAMPA BAY @ N.Y. YANKEES | 8/18 | 7:05 PM EDT
9:09 AM
In his career, the Rays are 9-0 SU with Blake Snell when they are not more than a -140 favorite and he did not walk a batter in his last start. Note that the Rays were the underdogs in five of the nine wins. The Yankees are 0-5 SU recently in the first game of a series with no rest after a game in which they hit more home runs than their opponent. New York was an average of -180 on the moneyline in those five losses and Masahiro Tanaka was the starter in three of the five. He's on the hill Tuesday. We are on the Rays.

21-6 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS | +1271
2-1 IN LAST 3 NYY ML PICKS | +100

4-2 IN LAST 6 TB ML PICKS | +57

OAKLAND -145
OAKLAND @ ARIZONA | 8/18 | 6:10 PM EDT
9:05 AM
Arizona walked it off Monday vs. Oakland, winning 4-3. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 as a dog when their opponent is seeking immediate revenge for a one-run loss in which they were not a -110-plus favorite. Arizona has lost these seven games by an average of 5.29 runs. Ouch. The Athletics, on the other hand, are a reliable 10-0 as a -140-plus favorite when they are off a one-run loss, outscoring their opponent by a staggering 6.20 runs per game. Oakland is the play.

21-6 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS | +1271
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Sam Quinn

OVER 225
OKLAHOMA CITY @ HOUSTON | 8/18 | 6:30 PM EDT
7:49 AM
The dirty secret behind Russell Westbrook's (quad) absence is that, in the early stages of the postseason, it won't mean that much. Since the trade deadline, Houston's offense has only been 3.1 points worse per 100 possessions without him on the floor. Without James Harden, they decline by 15.3 points per 100. Harden is still here, though, and in place of Westbrook will, presumably, be more shooting. Harden with optimal spacing is going to produce plenty of points. Houston's defense isn't particularly trustworthy, but the point total here is far too low to pass up.

19-11 IN LAST 30 NBA PICKS | +684

MILWAUKEE -12.5
ORLANDO @ MILWAUKEE | 8/18 | 1:30 PM EDT
7:47 AM
Milwaukee won all four of the regular-season games these teams played by an average of 17 points. The Magic are without Jonathan Isaac, their best defensive option against Giannis Antetokounmpo, and their second choice, Aaron Gordon, is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Bucks just slept through eight seeding games, but they were the NBA's best regular-season team for a reason. This is a complete and utter mismatch, and the Bucks will look to prove that their Disney struggles were nothing more than apathy. The real games start now, and the Bucks will want to make a statement here.

19-11 IN LAST 30 NBA PICKS | +684
4-1 IN LAST 5 MIL ATS PICKS | +290
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Posted : August 18, 2020 11:27 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 59389
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Topic starter
 

Doug Upstone MLB

5 Oakland -150
2 Parlay
White Sox -175
Cleveland -188
__________________

PhillyGodfather Moves

August 18, 2020

18-Aug-2020: MLB Cincinnati Reds/Kansas City Royals Un 9 -110 for Ga
18-Aug-2020: MLB MLB [926] TOTAL u9-110 (MILWAUKEE BREWERS vrs MINNESOTA TWINS) [C BURNES -R/K MAEDA -R]
18-Aug-2020: MLB 911 Tampa Bay Ray's
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XS Sports Picks (Yesterday 1-1 +$800)

$5,000 Indiana +4.5 -104 (4 pm)

$3,000 Houston +1.5 -105 (6:30 pm)

$3,000 LA Lakers Over 233 (9 pm)
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XS Sports Picks (Yesterday 4-0 +$11,600)

$5,000 Philadelphia -122 (7:30 pm)

$2,000 San Diego Over 9 -111 (4 pm)

$3,000 Houston Over 9 -110 (3 pm)
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Great Lake Sports

MLB
3* Atlanta Braves -130 (Tomlin)
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H&H Sports (NBA) - Double Dime Bucks/Magic Over 225
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All Star Sports (The Swami) - 5 Units Giants/Angels Over 9.5
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ODDS CRUSHER

NBA LAKERS-6
NBA BUCKS-13
MLB COLORADO OVER 9
MLB TBAY
MLB LA Dodgers -1 1/2
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Posted : August 18, 2020 2:10 pm
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Posts: 59389
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Gianni the Greek

UFC
Game: (24001) Victor Reyna at (24002) Louis Cosce
Date/Time: Aug 18 2020 11:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Victor Reyna +100
UFC - DWCS Week 3 = VICTOR REYNA +100...(4%) via BetOnline

Game: (24009) Orion Cosce at (24010) Matt Dixon
Date/Time: Aug 18 2020 11:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 2%
Play: MMA Parlay (@ +210) = Matt Dixon (-270) + Cheyanne Buys (-260) + Josh Parisian (-160)
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Andrew McInnis

4% NHL BEST BET
Game: (65) Chicago Blackhawks at (66) Vegas Golden Knights
Date/Time: Aug 18 2020 10:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 6.0 (-105)
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Tim Doyle

PORTLAND +6.5
PORTLAND @ L.A. LAKERS | 8/18 | 9:00 PM EDT
11:46 AM
Are the Blazers sharp or tired? Are the Lakers ready to flip that switch? I think what we learned in the bubble is that LeBron James and Anthony Davis both have to be great in order for L.A. to advance. Can that happen Absolutely. But I believe the Blazers are more talented overall and deeper. I’ll take the points on Tuesday, but I like the Blazers (at +400) to win this series.

24-15-1 LAST 40 NBA SIDES | +934
2-1 IN LAST 3 POR ATS PICKS | +85

MIAMI -200
MIAMI @ INDIANA | 8/18 | 4:00 PM EDT
11:39 AM
Both Jimmy Butler and T.J. Warren do not like each other, and I love it. Give Miami coach Erik Spoelstra credit. He is more than a figure on the sidelines; the guy can coach. He will shut down Warren and handle the Pacers.

11-3 IN LAST 14 NBA ML PICKS | +960

ORLANDO +13
ORLANDO @ MILWAUKEE | 8/18 | 1:30 PM EDT
11:35 AM
Milwaukee did not look dominant in the bubble. Giannis Antetokounmpo looked frustrated at times, and that boiled over with his head butt against the Wizards. The Magic went to Toronto last year and won Game 1 against the Raptors. The Bucks are favored by too many points.

24-15-1 LAST 40 NBA SIDES | +934
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Tony Mejia

Trailblazers/Lakers Over 233
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Matt Blunt
NHL
Vegas -195
Vegas -1.5 goals (+125)
Philadelphia/Montreal Over 5
Philadelphia/Montreal Over 1.5 goals (1st period)
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John Bollman

CALGARY +110
CALGARY @ DALLAS | 8/18 | 5:30 PM EDT
1:06 PM
This series is now tied 2-2 after the Stars pulled out the win in their last game. Joe Pavelski scored with 12 seconds left in the game to tie it, then the Stars won in OT. However, the Flames have been the better team this series and Ben Bishop isn’t playing. Look for the Flames to keep the lead in this game as they should have last game.

2-1 IN LAST 3 DAL ML PICKS | +60

CHI. WHITE SOX -160
DETROIT @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 8/18 | 8:10 PM EDT
1:06 PM
The Tigers have lost six straight games while the White Sox have won two straight. Dylan Cease faced the Tigers earlier this season throwing six innings and giving up one earned run. He is 4-0 with a 2.86 ERA in four career starts against the Tigers. Tarik Skubal, MLB’s 50th overall prospect, will be making his Major League debut for the Tigers but the highest level he has pitched at is Double A. The White Sox have the fifth highest OPS in the league against lefties while these teams have even bullpens, take the White Sox at home.

40-30 IN LAST 70 MLB PICKS | +759
31-6 IN LAST 37 DET ML PICKS | +2080

7-3 IN LAST 10 CHW ML PICKS | +374

WASHINGTON +120
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA | 8/18 | 7:10 PM EDT
1:05 PM
Austin Voth has faced this Braves team three times already in his short career and he has never given up more than two earned runs. Josh Tomlin will slide back into the ailing rotation for the Braves, although he will not be able to pitch very deep. The Braves have the fifth best bullpen in the league with a 3.16 ERA, but they will be stretched very thin today. Take the value in the Nats.

40-30 IN LAST 70 MLB PICKS | +759
14-5 IN LAST 19 WAS ML PICKS | +1080

N.Y. YANKEES +110
TAMPA BAY @ N.Y. YANKEES | 8/18 | 7:05 PM EDT
1:04 PM
Masahiro Tanaka is 10-4 with a 3.07 ERA in 19 career starts against the Rays and he pitched well against them last season throwing three quality starts in four appearances. Blake Snell faced the Yankees 11 days ago but he only pitched three innings. The Yankees are injured but they seem to be fine considering their backups have had so much playing time as of late. Take the Yankees at home with plus value.

40-30 IN LAST 70 MLB PICKS | +759

MINNESOTA -153
MILWAUKEE @ MINNESOTA | 8/18 | 8:10 PM EDT
1:04 PM
Kenta Maeda is 3-0 this season with a 2.66 ERA and he is coming off a win last week against the Brewers. Corbin Burnes will be making his second start of the season in place of Eric Lauer, and he has given up six runs in in 16 IP this season. He has had a problem with his command, walking 11 batters in those 16 innings. The Twins are one of the best hitting teams in the league while the Brewers have the fourth lowest OPS at .666.

40-30 IN LAST 70 MLB PICKS | +759
11-2 IN LAST 13 MIN ML PICKS | +861

5-4 IN LAST 9 MIL ML PICKS | +138

OAKLAND -145
OAKLAND @ ARIZONA | 8/18 | 6:10 PM EDT
1:03 PM
Luke Weaver is starting for the Dbacks and he is 0-3 with a 11.85 ERA this season and he has yet to record an out after the fourth inning this season. Frankie Montas will be pitching on extra rest and he is 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA this season. The Athletics have the second-best bullpen in the league with a 2.34 ERA this season while the Dbacks have the 21st ranked bullpen with a 5.00 ERA.

40-30 IN LAST 70 MLB PICKS | +759
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WUnderdog

NBA

LA Lakers -6.5 vs portland
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Josh Nagel
SENIOR ANALYST
3:37 PM

INDIANA +4
MIAMI @ INDIANA | 8/18 | 4:00 PM EDT
The Heat and Pacers are evenly matched and have a similar composition that relies on depth behind multiple solid role players and the ability to play defense when needed. The Pacers are slightly better with the latter, and have played better in the bubble although one of their two losses came against the Heat. Even so, this should be an ultra-tight series and the advantage lies in taking the points.

51-33-1 IN LAST 85 NBA ATS PICKS | +1479
11-3 IN LAST 14 IND ATS PICKS | +771

6-1 IN LAST 7 MIA ATS PICKS | +491
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Worlds Worst Picker
Peabody’s pick
Atlanta

We take
Washington
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Sportsline Computer

NBA

Indiana +4
Indiana +145
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Posted : August 18, 2020 3:53 pm
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