Wednesday 4/13/22 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games.
Football Jesus Vegas : NBA Spurs + pts
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MLBTOTAL
Detroit Tigers – Boston Red Sox
Over 8.5
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SportsLine Projection Model
CHARLOTTE HORNETS VS. ATLANTA HAWKS | 4/13 | 7 P.M. ET
Against the Spread
Pick: Hornets +4.5
Charlotte is covering in 52 percent of simulations.
Over-Under
Pick: Over 236
The over hits in 57 percent of simulations.
Money Line
Pick: Hornets +160
The Hornets are winning in 43 percent of simulations, bringing value at those odds.
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Matt Severance
SAN ANTONIO @ NEW ORLEANS | 04/13 | 9:30 PM EDT
NEW ORLEANS -218
ANALYSIS: I actually think the Pels are pretty good with the addition of CJ McCollum -- just think if Zion was healthy. In their past 10 games with both McCollum and Brandon Ingram in the lineup, New Orleans is 8-2, including six wins by double digits -- why I am hesitant to take San Antonio plus the points. Overall, NO is three games over .500 this year with Ingram and 13 under without. The Pels also have two excellent rookies in Herb Jones, a defensive dynamo, and unsung Jose Alvarado. His total plus/minus of plus-143 led all rookies in the NBA. And thanks in large part to Jonas Valanciunas, New Orleans is the only team in the NBA to rank Top-5 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. I'll probably play this with the Hornets-Hawks ML for a price of about +120, and we won't have to worry about any spreads/backdoor covers Wednesday.
CHARLOTTE @ ATLANTA | 04/13 | 7:00 PM EDT
ATLANTA -190
ANALYSIS: This is simply a home play -- remember, the Hawks got scorching-hot at home down the stretch last year, too, and it carried them to the East Finals. Atlanta has won 19 of its last 22 at home, the wins being the most in the NBA over that time (since Jan. 17). In that stretch, the Hawks are averaging 121.4 ppg at State Farm Arena and we know the Hornets can't play defense. I also trust Trae Young to raise his game as he did in the 2021 postseason. This might be the highest-scoring game of the entire playoffs (even though the play-in tournament isn't considered the "playoffs") but I stopped betting NBA totals months ago.
+3041 71-26 IN LAST 97 NBA ML PICKS
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Max Gorenstein
MILWAUKEE @ BALTIMORE | 04/13 | 7:05 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Brewers have not looked good in this series, but this is the game that they should light up the Orioles. The Orioles used four relievers on Monday and five relievers yesterday so their already terrible bullpen is now thin. The Brewers will have Corbin Burnes on the mound. He struggled in his first start against the Cubs, but he should have an easy time today against a mainly right-handed Orioles team. Burnes dominated righties last season (.179 BA). Brewers should put up enough runs to cover the run line.
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/13 | 1:05 PM EDT
UNDER 8.5
ANALYSIS: Neither of the starters in this game, Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola, looked good in their first start. However, I am expecting both pitchers to turn it around in this game. Knowing how Scherzer approaches the game, I highly doubt he opens the season with two bad games. He will be locked in today. Aaron Nola dominated the Mets the last two times he faced them allowing just one run in 11 innings. Yesterday, these teams combined for just two runs. Offenses should struggle in this one.
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Stephen Oh
CHI. CUBS @ PITTSBURGH | 04/13 | 12:35 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH +1.5
ANALYSIS: These NL Central rivals close out their quick two-game set with a Wednesday matinee and the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks scheduled to be opposed by the Pirates' Zach Thompson. My model has the Pirates covering +1.5 on the runline (-145) in 63 percent of simulations.
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Martin Green:
Manchester City vs. Atletico Madrid (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)
Picks:
Manchester City to win -125 (one unit)
Man City over 1.5 goals -115 (half unit)
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Jon Eimer:
Liverpool vs. Benfica (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET)
Under 3.5 goals (1u -125)
Both teams to score (1u -135)
Nunez ATGS (.5u +250)
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MLB-Martingale
2 UNITS
St.Louis Cardinals – Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
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Tomas Sports
Atlanta ml
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ZITI Sports
NBA
Atlanta Hawks -5 -110 Charlotte Hornets (7:00 PM)
NHL
Montreal Canadiens vs Columbus Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 +100 (7:05 PM)
MLB
Cleveland Guardians +117 Cincinnati Reds (12:35 PM)
Seattle Mariners +109 Chicago White Sox (7:10 PM)
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 8.5 -115 (12:35 PM)
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 -115 (1:10 PM)
SOCCER UNDER SYSTEM
Czech Republic - FNL- FC Vysocina Jihlava vs. SK Lisen UNDER 2.5 +118 (12:00 PM)
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Matt Severance
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/13 | 1:05 PM EDT
N.Y. METS +1.5
ANALYSIS: Sure, I'll take +1.5 (-180) on Max Scherzer, even if he isn't what he quite used to be, and play this with Blue Jackets ML over Montreal later tonight in the NHL. Last year, Scherzer was 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in four starts against Philadelphia. The Phils are sitting one major weapon in Rhys Hoskins and really no Philadelphia hitter has had much career success vs. the three-time Cy Young winner. Phils pitcher Aaron Nola was meh in his season debut vs. Oakland. Pete Alonso (especially him) Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil all have good career splits off Nola.
MONTREAL @ COLUMBUS | 04/13 | 7:00 PM EDT
COLUMBUS -160
ANALYSIS: Pretty blah NHL schedule tonight so this might be our only pick. Neither has really anything to play for but it frankly would benefit Montreal to lose out to finish with the fewest points in the league and the best chance to win the draft lottery. The Habs are 11 games under .500 on the road and Columbus three over at home. Elvis Merzlikins allowed one goal in Montreal in beating the Canadiens earlier this season. The Jackets are 13-3 in their past 16 as favorites.
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | 04/13 | 12:35 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Guardians are absolutely killing the ball of late and get to face a rookie making his big-league debut in Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo, a touted prospect but not an overpowering pitcher (see news feed). You have to figure some nerves. The Reds also are sitting two-thirds of their starting outfield in Tommy Pham and Nick Senzel after they collided in Tuesday's game. I'll pay the freight on the runline at -170 even though I think there's a good chance Cleveland wins outright. Note: This could get rained out/delayed
CHI. CUBS @ PITTSBURGH | 04/13 | 12:35 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH +1.5
ANALYSIS: Getting Pittsburgh on the runline is only 20 cents more than backing the Cubs on the moneyline (-129). Chicago's best pitcher is Kyle Hendricks and he was great in his season debut at Wrigley, but Hendricks has traditionally struggled on the road and the Pirates hammered him last year to the tune of a 6.66 ERA in five starts. Zach Thompson makes his Pittsburgh debut and he had a 3.24 ERA last year with Miami. He posted a 1.57 ERA in six appearances during the afternoon. The Bucs' Bryan Reynolds has gone 15-for-28 (.536) in his last nine game played at PNC Park.
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Larry Hartstein
CHI. CUBS @ PITTSBURGH | 04/13 | 12:35 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS -129
ANALYSIS: The Cubs have won 10 of the past 11 meetings, and I'll take them at this reasonable price to continue their dominance over Pittsburgh. Zach Thompson makes his Pirates' debut and should be a solid addition, but the Cubs should get to Pittsburgh's shaky bullpen (4.58 ERA). Chicago's Kyle Hendricks enters in excellent form after fanning seven in 5.1 innings vs. Milwaukee. The Cubs have gotten a much-needed spark from Japanese star Seiya Suzuki, who's 5 for 12 with three homers and eight RBI. With manager David Ross returning from a one-game suspension, I'll back the Cubbies to improve to 4-1 this season.
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John Bollman
CHI. CUBS @ PITTSBURGH | 04/13 | 12:35 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH 110
ANALYSIS: The Pirates lost their home opener yesterday, but I think they should be able to at least pull out one win this series. Kyle Hendricks looked very good on Opening Day, but he is a feel pitcher, so he can be completely on one day then completely off the next. He actually faced the Pirates 5 times last season and he didn’t pitch particularly well in any of them. Zach Thompson came over from the Marlins in the Jacob Stallings trade and he actually faced the Cubs twice last season. He didn’t allow a hit in 4 IP when he faced the Cubs early in the season before they traded all their players, then he also allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP against the thinner Cubs later in the season. The Cubs used all their top bullpen arms in the win yesterday and they seriously struggled on the road last season at 32-49. I like the value in the home dog.
MILWAUKEE @ BALTIMORE | 04/13 | 7:05 PM EDT
BALTIMORE 155
ANALYSIS: John Means pitched really well in his opening start of the season against the Rays and he faces a similar team today in that they platoon with all righties to face him. Well, the Brewers were ranked just 23rd in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Means also gives up more power to righties which is understandable, but he actually gives up a lower BA against righties than lefties. That is the effect of a changeup pitcher. We also saw how the Brewers bats struggled against Justin Steele and Bruce Zimmermann this season, both lefties who shut them out. Of course their bats could all of a sudden wake up this game, but they also pitched their top relievers in Josh Hader and Devin Williams two out of the last three days. That doesn’t mean they are unavailable, but if they do come in, they will be pitching their 3rd game in 4 nights for probably the first time this year. The Orioles had the worst bullpen in the league last season so they are always capable of blowing it. However, Corbin Burnes also struggled a bit in his first start allowing 3 ER and walking 3 batters in just 5 IP. I like the value on the Orioles at home here.
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Great Lake Sports
MLB
3* #958 San Francisco -140 (Webb)
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Matt Severance
BOSTON @ DETROIT | 04/13 | 1:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -125
ANALYSIS: I stuck my foot in my mouth yesterday when talking on Twitter about how good the Tigers had been on the runline at home since last season ... they then went out and blew a 3-0 lead and lost 5-3 to Boston. I didn't love the matchup today for a Tigers RL play and in fact will now take Boston ML for three reasons: Nathan Eovaldi on the mound, Trevor Story back in the lineup and the Tigers scratching Javy Baez (.316 BA, 1 HR, 4 RBI) a few minutes ago. Miguel Cabrera and Robbie Grossman also are out of the lineup for the D and if any team would know how to hit new Detroit pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez, it would be the Red Sox.
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Worlds Worst Picker
Peabody’s picks
Philly
Giants
We take
Mets
Padres
10 winners in a row for us
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Andrew McInnis
(69) New York Rangers at (70) Philadelphia Flyers
3% 1P Total Over 1.5 (-135)
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System Sports
Houston over 8.5
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Ben Burns
10* NBA DIVISION TOTAL OF MONTH - New Orleans Over 225
MLB BREAKFAST CLUB - Reds -125 Currently in Rain Delay
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Larry Ness
10* "Win or go Home" - Charlotte
10* Oddsmaker's Error - White Sox
Getaway Day Game of Week - Mets
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Al McMordie
30-2 NHL SLAPSHOT CLUB - Colorado -244
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Scott Spreitzer
3* Padres +110
2* Astros -150
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Ralph Michaels
5%- Avalanche Regulation -145
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Prez
4% REGULATION Columbus Blue Jackets -110
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Carmine Bianco
3% New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers
REGULATION New York Rangers -130
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CleInsiderSports
Soccer - Japan - Gamba Osaka ML
Soccer - UEFA - Liverpool ML
Baseball - Japan - Yakult ML
Basketball - EuroLeague - Moccabi Tel Aviv ML
MLB - Brewers/Orioles O8
NHL - Rangers/Flyers U6
NBA - Hornets +5
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Michael Alexander:
NBA, 04/13 7:05 PM Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks
PICK: Atlanta Hawks -200 for 2 Units
This is simply a home play -- remember, the Hawks got scorching-hot at home down the stretch last year, too, and it carried them to the East Finals. Atlanta has won 19 of its last 22 at home, the wins being the most in the NBA over that time (since Jan. 17). In that stretch, the Hawks are averaging 121.4 ppg at State Farm Arena and we know the Hornets can't play defense. I also trust Trae Young to raise his game as he did in the 2021 postseason. This might be the highest-scoring game of the entire playoffs (even though the play-in tournament isn't considered the "playoffs") but I stopped betting NBA totals months ago.
MLB, 04/13 12:35 PM Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5 for 2 Units
Getting Pittsburgh on the runline is only 20 cents more than backing the Cubs on the moneyline (-129). Chicago's best pitcher is Kyle Hendricks and he was great in his season debut at Wrigley, but Hendricks has traditionally struggled on the road and the Pirates hammered him last year to the tune of a 6.66 ERA in five starts. Zach Thompson makes his Pittsburgh debut and he had a 3.24 ERA last year with Miami. He posted a 1.57 ERA in six appearances during the afternoon. The Bucs' Bryan Reynolds has gone 15-for-28 (.536) in his last nine game played at PNC Park.
MLB, 04/13 7:05 PM Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles 157 for 2 Units
John Means pitched really well in his opening start of the season against the Rays and he faces a similar team today in that they platoon with all righties to face him. Well, the Brewers were ranked just 23rd in the league in wOBA against lefties last season. Means also gives up more power to righties which is understandable, but he actually gives up a lower BA against righties than lefties. That is the effect of a changeup pitcher. We also saw how the Brewers bats struggled against Justin Steele and Bruce Zimmermann this season, both lefties who shut them out. Of course their bats could all of a sudden wake up this game, but they also pitched their top relievers in Josh Hader and Devin Williams two out of the last three days. That doesn’t mean they are unavailable, but if they do come in, they will be pitching their 3rd game in 4 nights for probably the first time this year. The Orioles had the worst bullpen in the league last season so they are always capable of blowing it. However, Corbin Burnes also struggled a bit in his first start allowing 3 ER and walking 3 batters in just 5 IP. I like the value on the Orioles at home here.
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The Champ Team
Wednesday Payday - Bet until you win one unit
A Bet 1005am 958 Over 8.5 on Phillies
B Bet 340pm 1962 Tampa Bay First 5 innings
C Bet 630pm 507 Spurs +5.5
MLB Selections to Win $150
920am 952 Over 9 on Braves
935am 1953 Cubs first 5 innings -125
1005am 958 Over 8.5 on Phillies
340pm 1962 Tampa Bay first 5 innings -190
405pm 963 Over 8 on Toronto
405pm 1976 Baltimore first 5 innings +155
NBA Selection to Win $150
630pm 507 Spurs +5.5
MLB Two Team Parlays Bet $80
920am 952 Over 9 on Braves
935am 1953 Cubs first 5 innings -125
1005am 958 Over 8.5 on Phillies
340pm 1962 Tampa Bay first 5 innings -190
405pm 963 Over 8 on Toronto
405pm 1976 Baltimore first 5 innings +155
MLB Round Robins 2's and a 3 for $15 a way for $60
920am 952 Over 9 on Braves
935am 1953 Cubs first 5 innings -125
1005am 958 Over 8.5 on Phillies
340pm 1962 Tampa Bay first 5 innings -190
405pm 963 Over 8 on Toronto
405pm 1976 Baltimore first 5 innings +155
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