Wednesday 7/29/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games.
Stephen Oh
OVER 7.5
BOSTON @ N.Y. METS | 7/29 | 7:10 PM EDT
5:39 PM
Even though New York Mets ace and two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom is set to take the mound and carries a career-high scoreless inning streak of 28 into Wednesday, 70 percent of simulations by the Model has the total going Over in this matchup against the Red Sox and hard-throwing Nathan Eovaldi as the interleague series shifts from Boston to New York. The Over is 6-0-1 in Boston's past seven games and has hit in two of deGrom's past three starts despite blanking the opponent.
5-1 IN LAST 6 MLB PICKS | +455
ARIZONA +112
ARIZONA @ TEXAS | 7/29 | 4:05 PM EDT
5:32 PM
Arizona lefty Madison Bumgarner had an average pitching line in his Diamondbacks debut, but he did carry a shutout into the sixth inning and the Model favors the underdog Snakes behind MadBum in Wednesday's matinee at Lance Lynn and the Texas Rangers. Texas has lost its past five against left-handed starters. A total of 54 percent of simulations have Arizona winning.
5-1 LAST 6 MLB SIDES | +455
23-15 IN LAST 38 TEX ML PICKS | +1321
28-18 IN LAST 46 ARI ML PICKS | +1182
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baseball33
Cincinnati Reds
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Platinum Sports
Twins -1.5
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SDQL
SAN DIEGO -170
SAN DIEGO @ SAN FRANCISCO | 7/29 | 9:45 PM EDT
8:41 AM
The Giants should have a defeatist attitude here. The SDQL tells us that San Francisco 0-9 SU when it blew a lead in its starter's last start and lost and a miserable 0-12 as a home +140-plus dog when playing a team that has a better record and it is not a series opener. The Giants have lost these 12 games by an average of 4.83 runs and they were shut out in each of their last two in this spot. San Diego is 9-0 as a -135 favorite when off a game as a road favorite in which it held a multiple-run lead and not facing a team on a five-plus-game losing streak. We are laying the price.
7-3 IN LAST 10 MLB PICKS | +142
N.Y. METS -1.5
BOSTON @ N.Y. METS | 7/29 | 7:10 PM EDT
8:38 AM
Boston has not led in each of its last four games and trailed by at least five runs in every one. Jacob deGrom is not the pitcher they need to face to end this streak, and the Mets are not the team to let a struggling team up off the mat. New York is 12-0 as a favorite after playing as a road favorite vs. a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is not a series opener – and this includes 11-1 on the runline. The Red Sox are a disappointing 0-9 as a +130-plus dog when they are off a home game and facing a team with a better record. Boston has lost these nine games by an average of 4.22 runs. This price is cheap.
7-3 IN LAST 10 MLB PICKS | +142
DETROIT -135
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 7/29 | 7:10 PM EDT
8:35 AM
Detroit won Matthew Boyd’s last start against the Royals, and that's a positive indicator. The Tigers are 8-0 since the start of the 2018 season at home vs. a team they beat in Boyd’s last start against them, as long as they were not a +180-plus underdog. Detroit was the underdog in four of the eight wins and Boyd went an average of 6.17 innings and allowed and average of 1.62 runs in those eight starts. Kansas City is 0-6 SU on the road off a road game in which the Royals scored first, including 0-2 already this season. We are on the Tigers.
7-3 IN LAST 10 MLB PICKS | +142
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Brian Bitler
9* MLB Winning Ticket
White Sox
White Sox much like the Reds have been a disappointing team thus far this season going 1-4 and off getting swept in a double header at home they come in desperate to get a win with their young ace on the mound Lucas Giolito who needs a bounce back start after getting rocked in his first start this season. Look for the White Sox to get to Plesac early and hold the lead. 9 unit investment on the White Sox rotation #905
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Bob Weir
Saratoga Race 7 (4:12 p.m. ET)
This is one of those tough Saratoga turf sprints with a lot of possibilities. 5 Secretary At War (12-1) is an interesting option. This 6-year-old has primarily raced around two turns in his career. His last race was his first at shorter than 6½ furlongs, and it was a good one, closing from off the pace at five furlongs. He lost by a length in a loaded race, which produced three next-out winners (and two seconds). There could be enough speed signed to set up his late kick again. He may have found his calling.
4 Sayyaaf (8-5) will provide some of that speed. This Chad Brown trainee runs hard every time but usually gets caught late (two wins against five combined seconds and thirds). Must use but can be beat.
9 Ghoul (10-1) runs for trainer Peter Miller who excels with turf sprinters. He has looked a little off his game in two races following a trip to Saudi Arabia. Maybe he didn't like Churchill Downs. Maybe he didn't bounce back from the travel and is tailing off. Regardless, those were tough fields he faced at Churchill, and he could be ready in his third start after the overseas trip.
On the B line, I will use four. 6 Mick's Star (12-1) will turn back to a sprint. He's another who has mostly run in routes, but there is some hope. The best race of his career was at 6½ furlongs at Kentucky Downs... 3 Readyforprimetime (6-1) and 10 Kitten's Cat (4-1) run for trainer Linda Rice. She's firing with most of her horses. They must be respected here... Speed must always be considered in these turf sprints. 8 Vici (8-1) might get a perfect trip with Sayaaf to his inside.
A: 4,5,9
B: 3,6,8,10
Saratoga Race 8 (4:46 p.m. ET)
6 Blackjack Davey (2-1) exits a nice maiden special at Belmont. Most of the horses in this race have failed at this level repeatedly, so I will lean on this 3-year-old who just might be more talented than the others. He was a little green in both of his starts but gave every indication in his last start that two turns should not be a problem. He can improve. The one to beat.
On the B line, I will use four. 2 Bebe Banker (5-2) has speed and comes off a win against lesser. He has failed at this level 10 times (though only three times with current connections) but might steal it if unpressured... 1 Six Percent (10-1) didn't show much in his last start, but it looked like it was a run for fitness. He can be tighter in his second start back...4 Microscope (15-1) met a pretty salty group for the level in his last race, which produced three next-out winners. He can improve... 8 Danny California (4-1) is another with many tries at this level, but he usually fires. Contender.
A: 6
B: 1,2,4,8
Saratoga Race 9 (5:17 p.m. ET)
1 Wissahickon (7-2), age 5, makes his first U.S. start for trainer Jonathan Thomas (winning at 21 percent on the year). He has won eight of 12 starts, including two of four on the turf, and has been favored in 10 of 12 starts; there is no doubt he has talent. Will he take to Saratoga racing? The course has favored off-the-pace runners for the most part. The Timeform ratings are solid. I'll stand here.
The two obvious alternatives and expected favorites are 7 Breaking the Rules (3-1) and 8 Devamani (9-5). Both are solid horses from top trainers (Shug McGaughey and Chad Brown, respectively) who have not been able to establish themselves as graded stakes horses. Both can win, but I prefer the newcomer.
A: 1
B: 7,8
Saratoga Race 10 (5:48 p.m. ET)
2 Let Them Eat Cake (9-2) has run four races, two good and two bad. The two good races were at a mile on the turf. The two bad were sprints that were rained off the turf. If she just hates the dirt, she might be good enough transferring her turf form to the sprint distance. Big chance.
1 Zaccapa and 1a Sevnteeneightysevn (5-2) both look good as an entry. Zaccapa is the preferred choice, making her second start in the U.S. after showing some talent in France as a 2-year-old. She's eligible to improve. Sevnteeneightysevn also is likely to improve in her second start for trainer Ray Handal, who usually doesn't crank his horses first time out. Must use.
4 Sequin (3-1) returns as a 3-year-old for trainer Wesley Ward. It's always a concern when his 2-year-olds return as 3-year-old maidens, but she is hard to ignore. Her 2-year-old figures match up well. Any improvement as a 3-year-old, and she's the most likely winner.
Al Stall debuts 9 Zero to Sixty (8-1), a 3-year-old daughter of American Pharoah. This $320,000 purchase has taken a while to get to the races, but Stall is known for being patient and usually brings his best to Saratoga. Chance to surprise.
A: 1,2,4
B: 9
Wagers
All-A ticket
$4.00 Pick4: 4,5,9 with 6 with 1 with 1,2,4 ($36)
Three-A, one-B tickets
$1.00 Pick 4: 3,6,8,10 with 6 with 1 with 1,2,4 ($12)
$1.00 Pick 4: 4,5,9 with 1,2,4,8 with 1 with 1,2,4 ($36)
$1.00 Pick 4: 4,5,9 with 6 with 7,8 with 1,2,4 ($18)
$1.00 Pick 4: 4,5,9 with 6 with 1 with 9 ($3)
Total: $105
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Adam Goodwyn
THE MONEYLINE GUY
12:30 PM
CLEVELAND +101
CHI. WHITE SOX @ CLEVELAND | 7/29 | 6:10 PM EDT
My model has the Indians winning this game 51.97 percent of the time. With a +100 spread, you are looking at a roughly 2 percent edge. I would look for anything over +100 here for the Indians and you are looking at solid value.
BOSTON +170
BOSTON @ N.Y. METS | 7/29 | 7:10 PM EDT
My model has the Red Sox winning this game against the Mets 39.03 percent of the time. With a spread of +175, oddsmakers are assuming the Red Sox win this game roughly 36 percent of the time. Although it may seem hard to bet against Jacob DeGrom, take the Red Sox on a value play Wednesday.
ST. LOUIS +155
ST. LOUIS @ MINNESOTA | 7/29 | 8:10 PM EDT
My model has the Cardinals winning this game 41.87 percent of the time, as they look to spoil Rich Hill's Twins' debut. I see solid value on the Cardinals here with any spread over +160, as I see roughly a 4 percent edge. I know the Twins' bats have been hot, but take the value on the Cardinals.
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Adam Goodwyn
THE MONEYLINE GUY
12:43 PM
SAN FRANCISCO +154
SAN DIEGO @ SAN FRANCISCO | 7/29 | 9:45 PM EDT
My model has the Giants winning this game 44.63 percent of the time. The spread translates to a book-expected win percentage of roughly 38 percent. So, my model sees a roughly 6 percent edge. Take the Giants for value Wednesday.
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Accu Picks
MLB
3* Dodgers -128
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Vic Monte Sports
Colorado/Oakland over 8
Cubs/Cincy over 9.5
San Diego -160
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The Spot Player
3* White Sox -117 (Max Play)
2* Indiana Fever +4
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WUnderdog
mlb
San Diego-175
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Inkbets 17-5
MLB: Texas Rangers ML @ 1.85/-117 (3 Units)
MLB: St Louis Cardinals +0.5 1H @ 2.00/+100 (2 Units)
MLB: Toronto Blue Jays TT Ov3.5 @ 1.952/-105 (2 Units)
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ats
5 met under
4 zona under
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al demarco
10 twins run line
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bob valentino
30 DIME
MLB Total of the Month Part 2
cubs
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stephen deangelo
20 DIME
Run-Line Lock
My side wins by 5 runs!
angels run line
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mitchell newman
40 DIME
Winner # 8 of 10
Interleague Lock
braves
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kirby maxwell
40 Dime
Winner # 14 of 18
and # 5 of 6 this season
texas
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chris jordan
Second BIG PUP PRICE in Five Days
300♦ Underdog Shocker
toronto
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jack brayman
40 Dime
Winner # 5 of 6
A.L. Central Lock
cleveland
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