Free Premium Service Plays Friday 7/17/09

DailyPowerRatings
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3* San Francisco (-140) 1 Unit Play

Marc Lawrence

Never Lost National League Game Of The Week! - Friday

Play On: San Francisco w/Lincecum vs Maholm
Note: The Giants and Pirates open a three game set in Pittsburgh tonight
when Tim Lincecum matches serves with Paul Maholm.
Lincecum enters tonight's contest in terrific form
with 9 walks and 54 strikeouts in his last six starts.
He's also 4-0 in his last four start and 4-0 away lifetime with a 1.53 ERA on Fridays.

Maholm just 1-4 in his last five home team starts,
look for Lincecum and the Giants to win the opener
over Maholm and the Pirates here this evening.

Check out Hot Services
Marc Lawrence Red Section
Over the last Month ( very Few times in the Biggest Winners Section )
http://www.thespread.com/forum/index.php?topic=64776.0

Savannah Sports

Eric Degarde
3 () San Francisco -152
3 () Cincinnati Over 10

Robert Ferringo
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3-Unit Play. Take #L.A. Angels (-115) over Oakland
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2.5-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-1.5, +100) over Arizona
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2-Unit Play. Take N.Y. Yankees (-1.5, -115) over Detroit
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2-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-130) over Kansas City
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2-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (-135) over Washington
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1-Unit Play. Take Colorado (-155) over San Diego

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Today’s Totals
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2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 L.A. Angels at Oakland
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2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Tampa Bay at Kansas City
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2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 11.0 Minnesota at Texas
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1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Philadelphia at Florida
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1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Chicago Cubs at Washington

Tony Salinas

26* Mariners {F.Hernandez} (-155) over Indians {T.Ohka}
24* Rockies {U.Jimenez} (-150) over Padres {J.Geer}
25* La Angels {J.Saunders} (-115) over Athletics {T.Cahill}

Wunderdog

Game: Seattle at Cleveland (6:50 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cleveland +140 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.8)

Game: Seattle at Cleveland (6:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Cleveland +1.5 runs -120 (runline) (risk 4 to win 3.3)

Game: Chicago Cubs at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Washington +120 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.4)

Game: Chicago at Washington (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Washington +1.5 runs -140 (runline) (risk 4 to win 2.9)

Game: Boston at Toronto (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Game: San Francisco at Pittsburgh (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs -120 (runline) (risk 4 to win 3.3)

Game: Minnesota at Texas (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 10.5 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)

Game: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -140 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.1)

Game: Los Angeles Angels at Oakland (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Oakland -105 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.9)

BEN BURNS

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) - Jul 17, 2009 7:05 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play Title *SWEEP ALERT* 3-Game ULTIMATE *GET OUT YOUR BROOM*
Play Selected Money Line: -120
I'm playing on TORONTO. I successfully played against the Jays in Romero's last start. I do so for several reasons, one of which was that I felt we were getting excellent value with the home underdog Orioles. The Jays are roughly the same price as they were for that game. Only this time, they're at home and this time, they'll be facing a pitcher who hasn't started a big league game all year. Buchholz goes for Boston and he's been in the minors all season. When asked why he got the start, manager Terry Francona told the Boston Globe: " Coming out of the break, we really wanted to line up our pitching. And when you have the fourth day out of the break ... it really gives you a lot of rest..." Buchholz has admittedly been pitching very well at Pawtucket this season. However, there's a big difference between doing it at Triple-A and doing it in the majors. To put things in perspective, let's keep in mind that Buchholz was 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA last season. That included a 0-7 record with a terrible 8.74 ERA when pitching on the road. While I do expect Buchholz to be much better this time round, he still hasn't proven he can win on the road in the big leagues and he's up against a red hot pitcher here. Even though the Jays lost his last start, Romero was solid once again and didn't factor in the decision. He went eight complete innings and allowed three runs. That brings him to 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA his last three starts. While he did struggle vs. the Red Sox back in May, he's been terrific at home all season. Even including the loss to Boston, he's 5-1 with a stellar 2.31 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in his six home starts. While the Red Sox have the better overall record, a closer look shows that the Jays' home record (25-18) is actually better than Boston's 23-20 mark on the road. Note that the Jays have won two of three against the Red Sox here at Toronto this season and that they're 10-5 the last 15 times they hosted the Red Sox. Overall, Boston is just 25-33 (-12.1) when playing on artificial turf the past few seasons. The Jays have faced Buchholz twice. They won both those games in convincing fashion, winning by a combined score of 16-3. I expect them to start their second half with another victory. *Personal Favorite

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds (MLB) - Jul 17, 2009 7:10 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play Title *SWEEP ALERT* 3-Game ULTIMATE *GET OUT YOUR BROOM*
Play Selected Money Line: -118
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Brewers won yesterday's series opener. They're now a game above 500 (22-21) on the road while the Reds fell a game below 500 (20-21) on the road. Today, I expect the Reds to bounce back, evening up those records and the series. Both starters, Suppan and Arroyo, have similar overall stats. Suppan has a slightly better ERA but Arroyo has a slightly better WHIP, to go along with a better overall record. I like a couple of things about Arroyo here though. For starters, he's averaging greater than six innings per start. Suppan is averaging only 5 1/2. More importantly, Suppan struggled last time out while Arroyo was dominant. In his last start, Arroyo tossed a complete game shutout, allowing only four hits. He had five strikeouts and didn't walk a batter. Conversely, Suppan allowed six hits and four runs in 5 2/3 innings. He also walked four, while only striking out two. He's now 0-2 with a 5.22 ERA in his last five starts. It's true that Arroyo got rocked by these same Brewers last time he faced them. However, it's also true that he pitched very well against them before that. For his career, he's still 8-5 with a respectable 4.25 ERA vs. Milwaukee. Those stats are better than Suppan's 4-3 record and poor 5.67 ERA vs. his career vs. Cincinnati. After his big win last time out, Arroyo was quoted as saying: "I got my ninth win, which tied my career high for the first half of the season. Even though my ERA is inflated, it's a good opportunity for me to kind of focus and feel like I have something going for me in the second half to keep this team in the race..." Speaking of "keeping in the race," if they want to entertain any thoughts of remaining competitive, with trips to LA and Chicago on deck, this is a very important series for the Reds. I expect them to bounce back with a much-needed victory. *Annihilator

Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres (MLB) - Jul 17, 2009 10:05 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play Title *SWEEP ALERT* 3-Game ULTIMATE *GET OUT YOUR BROOM*
Play Selected Total: 7.5/-102
I'm playing on San Diego and Colorado to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's game eclipsed the total by the top of the sixth inning. Colorado would go on to win by a score of 10-1. However, prior to that, 13 of the Rockies' 20 previous visits to San Diego had stayed below the total. I expect things to return to "normal" and for this evening's game to prove to be relatively low-scoring. While one wouldn't know it by looking at his win/loss record, Jimenez actually had a very solid first half. He's got a 3.81 ERA in 18 starts, averaging greater than six innings per outing. In 10 road starts, he has a 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Seven of those 10 games stayed below the total. Looking back further and we find the Jimenez has allowed four earned runs or less in 18 of his last 20 road starts, allowing three or less in 16 of them. He's also gone a minimum of seven complete innings in five of his last seven road starts, going at least six innings in all seven of those games. Geer gets the call for the home team. While he's admittedly had some trouble on the road, he's been much better here at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In fact, he's delivered three consecutive quality starts here, two of which stayed below the total. This season, he's got a respectable 3.83 ERA in seven starts here, to go along with an excellent 1.052 WHIP. Overall, dating back to last season, he's allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his 10 home starts, allowing two or less in six of those. Geer's lone home start against the Rockies this season resulted in a 2-1 final with Geer allowing just five hits and one run through eight complete innings. I expect another well-pitched affair. *Blue Chip

Jack Jones

15* on Twins/Rangers UNDER 10.5
Minnesota has really hit a stride over their last 7 games on offense, but their 5.9 runs per game over that span is a full run per game more than they've averaged all season, which means those numbers are due for a correction. Texas is averaging just 4.4 runs per game over their last 7 games, but 5.6 runs per game at home this season, giving me the impression that, at best, they will fall somewhere in between those two numbers tonight. What really stands out for this high total, however, is how well each starting pitcher has thrown in their past three starts. Glen Perkins has a 3.44 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in his last 3, while Vicente Padilla has been equally impressive, posting a 3.50 ERA over his last three starts. Small play on the UNDER tonight.

20* No Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -1.5
Take the White Sox on the runline over the Orioles tonight with John Danks throwing for Chicago. Danks is 7-6 on the year with a 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, including a 3.33 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 8 home starts this season, and a 1.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 2-0 record over his three most recent starts. Meanwhile, Jason Berken has been a disaster as a starter for Balitmore this season. He's 1-6 over 9 starts with a 5.87 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. Those numbers skyrocket when he pitches on the road, his ERA jumping to 9.49 and his WHIP reaching 1.95 over those three starts. The Sox have been hitting great as a team lately, averaging 6.4 runs per game and hitting .296 as a team over the last 7 days, while the Orioles have been ice-cold on offense, managing to post 4.4 runs per game, but only hitting .225 as a team. Expect the White Sox to come out very strong behind Danks in their first game back from the All-Star Break.

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Red Section

Halfbets
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Texas and Twins Under 11 runs –115 for 4 units
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Texas has been money to the under this season at home after years of having only mediocre pitching they finally look to have a good season with their crew. The Under has gone 27-16 this season in Texas winning at 63% rate this season so far. On the mound today for the Twins is Perkins (4-5 4.71 ERA) vs. Padilla (7-4 4.53 ERA). Both pitchers are a combined 18-10 to the under this season. Perkins went 12.1 innings pitched against Texas last season giving up only 2 ER in 2 games pitched. Padilla had 3 games against the Twins and 2 of those he went 16 innings pitched giving up 0 ER while in his other game he gave up 3 ER in 5 innings. Both pitchers have historically done good against there opposing team today. The Under is 21-7 as a road underdog for the Twins last 30 games. The Under is 14-3 as a home favorite for Texas and the Under is 10-1 as a favorite of –110 to –150. The Under is also 21-7 against a lefty starter and the under is 6-0 in Padilla last 6 starts overall. In the past meeting with these two teams the games have gone 8-2 to the over last year but with two improved pitching crews I see value in a good spot for an under today in Texas.

charlie sports

mlb. mets @ atlanta under 8' runs ( 500*).
mlb. astros @ dodgers under 7' runs (30*)
mlb. milwaukee+125 (20*)
mlb. angels-120 (20*)
mlb. toronto-130 (10*)
mlb. texas-130 (10*) free play

Young Gun Sports

3 Units Red Sox

Brandon Lang
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5 Dime Marlins
5 Dime Angels
5 Dime Mariners Run Line
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FREE – Rockies

LARRY NESS
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20* GOM LA Angels

IndianCowboy
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4* Game of the Week Tampa Bay Rays -145
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The Tampa Bay Rays visit the Kansas City Royals in the first of a three game set on Friday Night. The Tampa Bay Rays are currently 6.5 games back in the American League East as they start their second half of the season. I'm expecting the Tampa Bay Rays to put together a really strong second half of the season and make a push at winning the AL East for the second straight year. It all starts tonight.
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The Tampa Bay Rays send James Shields to the mound who is 6-6 with a 3.42 ERA on the year. The Rays haven't had much success with Shields on the mound away from their hometown, but it has alot to do with their lack of run support and not so much Shields performance. He is 2-4 on the road but boasts a 3.88 ERA. That's a place where most pitchers would love to be. The good thing is that Shields should be even better tonight against a team has dominated. Shields is 5-0 in his 5 career starts against KC with a 2.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP. In 4 of his 5 starts he has allowed 2 runs or less, going 6 innings or more in all 5 starts. The Rays as a team have had plenty of success against the Royals as they are 20-8 in the last 28 meetings.
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The Royals are hoping to stop the bleeding by sending Brian Bannister to the mound. Bannister has had a pretty decent year on a bad team going 6-7 with a 3.66 ERA. The problem here is that he is horrible against the Rays. He is 1-3 in his career with a 6.95 ERA. In reality, he had one excellent start against the Rays, which was the first time they ever seen him, and one average start in between two horrific starts. In his last start against the Rays on June 3rd, he went 3 2/3 innings giving up 9 hits and allowing 8 earned runs. The Royals are 1-8 in Bannister's last 9 starts against the American Leauge East. Look for the Rays to jump all over Bannister again tonight as they try to start their push towards the top of the AL East! Play the Rays as our 4* MLB Game of the Week!

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4 units (Play of the Day) TOTAL: Under 9
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Let's go back to the tilt betwen the Phillies and Marlins. These two hook up this evening as they come off an under yesterday where just four runs were scored. I believe that this will be another's pitcher's duel today as these two compete for the tops in the NL East. Although Cole helped his team win 8-7 in his last contest, he picked up a no-decision and was fortunate the Phillies won given that he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings. Nolasco comes off one of his worst starts of the year where he gave up 7 runs in 6 innings in Arizona. This comes off a start where he gave up just 3 hits in 8 innings (shutout) in back to back brilliant starts against Pittsburgh and Washington (2 runs in 8 inns). I expect Nolasco to bounce-back today and actually expect the Marlins to win. After all, they come off a loss yesterday and Nolasco on the bounce-back. But, rather than going against Cole, we will take the Under as we expect both pitchers to have a strong outing today. The Under is 5-0 when the Phillies face the NL East, the Under is 4-1 when Hamel starts on the road with this margin and the Under is 4-0 when Nolasco starts as an Underdog of this margin at home.

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5 units (Game of the Month) ATS: Sacramento Monarchs -3.5
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5 Unit Play. GOM Take Sacramento Monarchs -3.5 over the Seattle Storm (Friday @ 10pm est). What has gone under the radar is the firing of the Sacramento coach and now, the GM has essentially taken over the team. In his first game, his team got spanked by the Mercury by a score of 81-100. But, the line went down from -7.5 in that game to -6.5 as folks expected his presence to revitalize the team as he came down from the front office to coach this team. Essentially, he is taking the team in his own hands. So, this is his first home game with his squad at home. Tack that on with the fact that the Monarchs have MASSIVE revenge against the Strom having lost to them three times this year, and this sets up a game in which the Monarchs can get out their frustration on this team. Sacramento has the propensity to play well at home as two of their three wins come at home (including a 10 point win over Chicago). I just don't believe the coaching changes, the fact that this team has lost to Seattle three games in a row already this season and a shady line of -3.5 for a team that is 3-11 over an 8-6 team such as the Seattle Storm is a mistake. This line is purposefully set to bury the public imo as Vegas expects the Monarchs to likely crush the Storm tonight. I do feel a bit queezy that the Storm come off a couple of losses, as they are 2-4 over their last 6, but I expect the Sacramento women to have a fire lit up behind their fannies today. The Storm are 1-5 ATS when they face a team with a SU losing record. Monarchs shock the public today.