Larry Ness
NL Game of the Month
The Astros got shut out in consecutive games (totaled just seven hits) on Sunday (3-0 at St Louis) and Monday (7-0 at Pittsburgh), which dropped them to 1-6 to open the 2009 season. However, they've put together back-to-back wins with a 4-1 win on Wednesday and a 6-3 win on Thursday (both at Pittsburgh). Lance Berkman hit a tie-breaking three-run homer in the sixth inning in Thursday's win for the Astros. The Reds enter this game 4-4, losing their most recent game 9-3 at Milwaukee on Wednesday, after opening that three-game series with a 7-6 win on Monday and another victory on Tuesday (6-1). These teams open a four-game series tonight in Houston, with right-handers Cueto (Cin) and Oswalt (Hou) on the mound. The Reds were just 31-50 (minus-$1,246) on the road last year, including 17-33 (minus-$1,285) vs right-handers (averaged only 3.9 RPG). That's only part of Cincy's woes in this game. Roy Oswalt has absolutely 'OWNED' the Reds in his career, going 23-1 with a 2.47 ERA in 28 career games (26 starts) against them (Astros are 22-4 in those 26 starts). He suffered his only loss against the Reds back on April 28, 2006 and since then, has gone 8-0 with a 2.39 ERA over eight subsequent starts against Cincy. Just some quick notes regarding Oswalt's career, before getting to Cincy's starter, Johnny Cueto. Oswalt has been among MLB's finest pitchers since going 14-3 (2.73 ERA) in his first year with the team (2001). He was an Opening Day loser to Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs 4-2 in 2009, going seven innings, while allowing seven hits and three ERs. He then pitched poorly in St Louis on Saturday, allowing six runs and nine hits over six innings for the Astros in an 11-2 loss to the Cardinals. That outing was somewhat surprising, as he had a 1.83 ERA in five previous starts at the new Busch. He'll take a career 129-66 (3.15) mark into this game, which is a winning percentage of .662. It should also be noted that the Astros are an impressive 157-94 in all his starts (.625), with the breakdown being much more favorable at home (87-37 or .702) than it is on the road (70-57 or .551). That's more good news for the Astros. As for Cueto, he made a HUGE 'splash' last year (his rookie season) in his first two starts. He beat the D'backs in Cincy 3-2, going seven innings while allowing one hit and one ER and striking out 10 with no walks. In his next start at Milwaukee, he got a no-decision in a 3-2 loss, allowing five hits and two ERs in 6.1 innings (eight Ks and no walks). After two ML starts, Cueto was 1-0 with a 2.03, striking out 18 batters (with ZERO walks) in 13.1 innings. However, he finished the season 9-14 with 4.81 ERA in 31 starts (Reds were 12-19). That included an 0-3 mark with a 7.84 ERA in four starts vs the Astros (Reds lost all four games). Oswalt has yet to "hit his stride" in 2009 but what better team to do just that against, than the Reds? The Astros were 12-3 last year vs the Reds, plus Cueto's four starts vs Houston last year were a 'nightmare.'
NL Game of the Month on the Hou Astros
Maddux Sports
Baseball
3 units on St. Louis +170
3 units on Florida -124
3 units on LA Dodgers -144
3 units on Baltimore +137
3 units on Minnesota -114
Bob Balfe
Marlins -130 over Nationals
Nolasco/Lannan
Matt Fargo
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
3* Baltimore Orioles
Cajun Sports
MLB 2*
Date/Time: Friday April 17 / 7:05PM EST
Sport/Type: MLB / Side
Game: Florida Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Graded Selection: 2* Florida Marlins -129
RatedPicks.com
From Email (Paid Plays)
Detroit Tigers +105
Houston Astros -145
LA Dodgers -1.5 RUN LINE +115
Padres/Phillies OVER 8.5
Hondo
San Diego -- 10 units on Young to come up tall in Philadelphia.
Raging Bull
Soccer:
VVV Venlo/FC Emmen over 3 (Dutch Eerste Divisie)
Metz/Clermont Foot over 2 (France Ligue 2)
MLB:
Marlins/Nationals over 9 even
Pirates +107
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Houston w/Oswalt
When the Astros send ace righthander Roy Oswalt up against the Reds in Houston tonight they will do so knowing they have defeated Cincinnati 22 out of 26 times in Oswalt's career team starts in this series. Inside those numbers he's won each of his last 9 starts at home against the Reds. With Oswalt 0-2 out of the gate this season, look for the Astros to improve to 17-3 as a host in this series here tonight.
DOC
6 Unit Pick. Take Carolina (+130) over New Jersey
Game two is tonight after New Jersey took game one rather easily. Carolina couldn't have played a worst game, they were out played in every area. The Devils from the start seemed like they just had more energy and jumped on the Hurricanes out shooting the Carolina 30-13 and leading 3-0 after the first two periods. This Carolina team is mentally tough and quietly was one of the best in hockey after making a coaching change in December. I think we will get a better effort here tonight from Carolina and I think this series will head back to Carolina 1-1.
Robert Ferringo
1.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-130) over Oakland
Hey, as long as the Blue Jays keep winning we’re going to keep playing them. They have looked incredible to this point in the season. Absolutely sensational. They have been able to do no wrong and they are destroying left-handed pitching. Oakland does not hit lefties very well, and that also hurts because Toronto’s bullpen is stacked with left-handed pitchers. Oakland is coming off a nice series with the Red Sox and I don’t think that the turf is going to serve them well. Toronto gets Game 1.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-145) over Cincinnati
Two guys that are very happy to see the Reds come to town: Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has been garbage this year, but he has won 22 of 26 starts against the Reds over the last few seasons. I know that this is a different Reds team, but the bottom line is that when you own a franchise, you own a franchise. The Astros are 48-21 against the Reds in the last 70 meetings and the ‘Stros are 55-19 in Oswalt’s home starts. He gets his first win of the season tonight.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Seattle (-125) over Detroit
King Felix and the M’s have a lot of mojo right now. Their new manager really has this team playing good baseball and has them playing the game the right way. Much like the Blue Jays and the Marlins, the Mariners are just smoking hot and we’re going to go to the well a little bit. Justin Verlanders has proven time and time again that he’s just not the same guy he was three years ago. Detroit is 5-13 with Verlander on the road and is 5-11 when he has extra rest. Detroit is also 15-37 as an underdog and 1-7 on the road.
1-Unit Play. Take New York Mets (-125) over Milwaukee
Mets are starting to feel the pressure a bit, I believe. But the Brewers just really aren’t a very good team right now. They have been dropping series against teams – Cubs aside – that just aren’t very good (Reds, Giants). And Milwaukee has not looked good doing it. The Brewers are 3-12 in their last 15 road games and are 4-13 backing Dave Bush on the road. The Mets have faced some really good starting pitching over the last week and I think that Bush is going to be throwing softballs up there to a lineup that is really focused on getting some momentum. Mets get 2-of-3 in this series this weekend without breaking a sweat.
1-Unit Play. Take Florida (-125) over Washington
This is along the same lines as the Blue Jays. As long as the Marlins keep winning we’ll keep playing them. They are 21-7 over the Nationals over the last couple years and dominated them last week in Miami. John Lannan has not looked sharp this year and the Marlins’ right-handed power – Uggla, Ramirez, etc. – should have another solid day against him.
Runline Systems Plays
1-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (-180) over St. Louis
1-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (-1.5, +110) over St. Louis
Hey, I’m sure P.J. Waters is a nice guy. He’s probably going to have a great career. But he’s not going to beat Carlos Zambrano this afternoon. It’s the kid’s first career start and he’s doing it in a huge rivalry game at Wrigley Field. He’s going to be nervous, while the Cubs are going to be focused because they lost Game 1. I don’t expect Waters to have a deep outing and that's going to get us into the St. Louis bullpen. Nothing good happens when you get into the St. Louis bullpen.
1-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-170) over Chicago White Sox
1-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-1.5, +110) over Chicago White Sox
1-Unit Play. Take New York Yankees (-1.5, -105) over Cleveland
Underdog Systems Plays
1-Unit Play. Take San Diego (+155) over Philadelphia
1-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (+135) over Boston
1.5-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (+105) over Pittsburgh
Today’s Total
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Florida at Washington
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Oakland at Toronto
Brian Edwards
Marlins at Nationals
Play: Marlins -121
Florida is on fire with four straight wins and eight victories in its first nine games of the season. The Marlins just swept the Braves, outscoring Atlanta by a combined score of 21-7 in three games. The Nats got their first win of the season yesterday but I don't see this abysmal squad catching fire. Ricky Nolasco shits Washington down and Hanley Ramirez bounces back from Thursday's 0-for-5 performance against the Braves.
RON RAYMOND
5* Athletics / Blue Jays Under 9
The Baseball Prophet
POD - Seattle Mariners -120
BEN BURNS
NL Personal Favorite
I'm laying the price with ARIZONA. I typically don't play that much road "chalk," in any sport. However, every once in awhile, I feel that we can actually find strong value with the road favorite. I believe that this is one of those cases. Note that Arizona is 17-10 (+4) the last 27 times it was a road favorite in the -125 to -150 range. During the same stretch, the Giants were just 5-13 (-6.3) when listed as home underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. Haren goes for the visitors and he's already off to an 0-2 start. However, a closer look shows that he's been outstanding, recording a 2.08 ERA. As he noted: "I pride myself on being consistent, going out there every time and giving the team a chance. I've done that. I haven't gotten 'Ws,' but I'm where I need to be pitching-wise. You can't really measure a pitcher by wins and losses anyway. There's only so much I can control." Haren should finally get some run support this evening as he's matched up against Jonathan Sanchez. Like Haren, Sanchez (0-1) is still winless. Unlike Haren, he's made only one start and he got rocked. He lasted just 4 2/3 innings and gave up nine baserunners and five earned runs. That was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park vs. the light-hitting Padres, too. Note that Sanchez had a 5.01 ERA last year (5.88 in 2007!) and that he's 1-5 with an ugly 8.56 ERA and awful 2.012 WHIP in seven career starts versus Arizona. Of course, if Haren was pitching at home against Sanchez, he'd be a much higher-priced favorite. In fact, Haren was a bigger favorite than this in each of his last three home starts against the Giants and those games came against Cain (twice) and Lincecum, both of whom are much better than Sanchez. Haren was matched up against Sanchez once. That game came here last July and Arizona won by a score of 10-2. Including that result, Haren was 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA in four starts against the Giants last season. Look for him to continue his strong pitching this evening, only this time, look for it to lead to an Arizona victory. *NL Personal Favorite
AL GOW
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Don't be fooled by their slow start. With their crew of high quality starters, the Angels remain the team to beat in the AL West. They showed that last night as Saunders held the Mariners to three hits and one run through seven complete innings, en route to a 5-1 LA victory. The Angels' problem is that they're not currently healthy. In fact, they're currently missing Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey AND Ervin Santana. That's opened the door for the likes of Dustin Moseley. He'll take the mound for the Halos for this evening's series opener at Minnesota. He'll be opposed by Nick Blackburn and I feel that gives an edge to Minnesota. Moseley has been fairly solid in his first two starts, going 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA. Note that both his starts came at home and that this will be his first on the road. Before getting too excited about Moseley's stats, keep in mind that he's still got an ugly 5.40 ERA in 63 Major League appearancess, 22 of them starts. He was 2-4 with a terrible 6.79 ERA last season with 10 of his 12 appearances coming as a starter. Opposing batters hit a whopping .343 against him in six road starts. Due to a sub-par outing his first time out, Blackburn's stats admittedly aren't that impressive yet. However, he was solid in his last start, allowing three runs in six complete innings vs. the White Sox. That's typically about what we came to expect from him, in terms of innings, as he averaged nearly six innings per start last season. In fact, he averaged greater than six innings per start when pitching at home. In 14 starts here, he was 8-3 with a stellar 2.95 ERA. Blackburn did lose his lone home start against the Angels, which came last April. However, that was hardly his fault. Indeed, he allowed just five hits and one run (6 K's, 1 walk) through seven complete innings. However, facing Saunders, the Twins couldn't provide any support and Blackburn got stuck with a 1-0 loss. With Moseley on the mound, he should get some runs to work with this time. While I expect the Twins to have an edge on the mound, I also like the scheduling situation. The Twins played here at Minnesota yesterday evening, losing to Roy Halladay and the Jays. Their game was already in the seventh inning before the first pitch in the Angels' game was even thrown. Off that late game, the Angels had to fly from Seattle all the way to Minnesota. Note that the Angels will also be without Vladimir Guerrero, as he returned to Los Angeles with a strained pectoral muscle, in order to see the team orthopedist. The Twins are 27-17 (+7.6) the the last 44 times that they played at home with a line ranging from +100 to -125. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 133-98 (+20.5) their last 241 in that role. I expect them to improve on those stats by starting this series off with a victory. *AL GOW