Larry Ness
' 15* Pitching Mismatch (up 140 stars in MLB '09)
My 15* Pitching Mismatch is on the Hou Astros at 8:05 ET. Most who follow MLB know that the Pirates have not had a winning season since the 1992 season, a year in which they lost the NLCS to the Braves in seven games. The Pirates are 25-28 to open 2009 and could threaten .500 this season but I wouldn't bet on it. The Pirates have lost 50 or more games in each of the last three seasons away from home (83-160 or .342 overall) and at 10-17 (.370) away from PNC Park this year, are on pace to lose 51 road games in 2009. The Pirates will hand the ball to 26-year-old Jeff Karstens (2-2 with a 4.83 ERA in 10 starts in 2009) tonight, as they open a three-game series in Houston. Karstens came from the Yankees last summer in the Xavier Nady trade. He did little for the Yanks in 2006 and 2007 (3-5 with a 5.65 ERA in 15 appearances, including nine starts) and had been in the minors all of 2008 before moving to Pittsburgh. He famously opened with two straight wins for the Pirates, winning 2-0 at Wrigley Field on August 1 and five days later, winning 3-0 at Chase Field. He went 15 innings while not allowing a run in those two games but in his final seven starts for the Pirates in '09, went 0-6 (team was 0-7), posting a 5.70 ERA. He then opened the 2009 season 1-2 in his first six starts (Pittsburgh was 1-5), leaving him 1-8 over 13 starts (Pirates were 1-12) since opening with those back-to-back efforts vs the Cubs and D'backs in August of '08. Karstens has had better luck recently, as he's 1-0 in his last three starts, with the Pirates winning all three games. However, let's not get too carried away, as his ERA in the three games is 4.42. The Astros are just 23-29 to open 2009 and that includes a 12-16 home mark. However, the Astros had won four straight (their longest winning streak of '09) before falling 10-3 to Colorado on Thursday. Houston will counter Karstens with Mike Hampton and most know his story. He was an excellent pitcher early in his career for the Astros and then in one season with the Mets (2000), helped lead them to the World Series (he was MVP of the NLCS that year). However, Hampton's career has been pretty much all downhill since leaving for Colorado (and a huge free agent deal) for the 2001 season. Hampton is back with Houston this year and enters this game 3-4 with a 5.07 ERA in 10 starts. However, the Pirates are one team Hampton has done well against. He's won 12 of 13 decisions against them since 1997, including eight straight starts. Now let me note that only one current Pittsburgh player has more than 10 career at-bats against Hampton, so one could argue that his lifetime mark against the Pirates is "old news." If that's true, then why is it that the veteran left-hander is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in two starts vs the Pirates this season, while going 1-4 with a 6.43 ERA against all other teams in eight 2009 starts (Astros are 1-7)? Pitching Mismatch 15* Hou Astros.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (63.2% TY with MLB Insiders)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. The Red Sox are a dominating 17-6 in Fenway this season, batting .302 as a team while averaging 6.30 RPG. So what else is new? The Red Sox went 56-25 at home last year and just once since 2003 have the Red Sox failed to win 50-plus games in Fenway Park for a season. Boston is 317-169 (.652) at home the last six years (2003-08). The Rangers will open a three-game series in Boston tonight and Texas knows more than a little about how tough it is to win at Fenway. The Rangers have lost eight straight games in Fenway, allowing eight or more runs five times last season while going 0-7 and Texas pitchers own a horrific 9.14 ERA during their eight-game slide at Fenway. There are some silver linings to this game for the Rangers, as Texas owned MLB's worst team ERA last season (5.36) but enters tonight's game with a 4.62 ERA. Also, tonight's starter Kevin Millwood, has been one of the main reasons for the team's improved pitching in 2009. He's 4-4 with a 3.23 ERA this year and his ERA is 10th-best in the AL. It's also worth noting that he's 3-1 all-time at Fenway but on the season, the Rangers are just 5-6 in his starts. In comparison, Boston's Brad Penny has been giving out hits like Christmas presents this season (70 in 54.1 IP). Penny also owns a 5.63 ERA in 10 starts but he's 5-1 on the season, although the Red Sox are a more modest 6-4 in those 10 starts. However, this is Fenway and Penny's made four home starts in '09 and despite a 6.14 ERA, he's 3-0 with the Red Sox going 4-0. Penny's early season outings were truly 'ugly' but he's had four quality starts in his last six. Fenway has been a "House of Horrors" for the Rangers and there's little reason for that to change tonight, even with Millwood on the mound. Las Vegas Insider 15* Bos Red Sox.
Good Luck...Larry
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