LT Profits
Ottawa Senators @ Pittsburgh Penguins Under 5.0 +115
The Pittsburgh Penguins are supposed to score goals, but it is their defense that smothered the Ottawa Senators 4-0 in Game 1, and that unit will determine just how deep this team goes in the playoffs.
In fact, the Penguins have now allowed two goals or less in seven consecutive games, so it is not as if that performance in the series opener came out of nowhere. They have gotten great goaltending from both Marc-Andre Fleury and backup Ty Conklin, who each have identically good save percentages of .923 this year. Not that surprisingly, the Under is 7-1 in the last eight Pittsburgh games overall.
The Senators were certainly frustrated in the opener, and that was illustrated by some chippy play in the third period. That contest marked the third time that the supposedly high-powered Sens were shut out in the last five games, and they scored just one goal in one other game. Sure they scored eight goals in the fifth contest, but that was vs. a dreadful Toronto Maple Leafs team.
We look for the Penguins to shut down Ottawa again tonight, and while we have no interest in laying the chalk with the Pittsburgh side, we do find the plus odds attached to the Under here quite attractive.
Pick: Senators, Penguins Under 5 +115
Miami Heat +4.5
This contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Miami Heat reminds us a lot of the Heat’s last game, when the slumping Bulls were large road favorites over the “D-League All-Stars” and Miami won outright.
Now, this may not look like a large line for most teams, but remember that this is a Grizzlies club that is 21-57 straight up overall including 7-31on the road. Memphis is getting outscored by an average of -8.0 points away from home, where their atrocious defense is allowing 105.9 points per game on 47.6 percent shooting from the floor, a poor trait you never want to see in a road favorite.
Yes, the Heat are a mess, but at least their players are giving it their all with this rare opportunity, and they showed against the Bulls that they are capable of beating the lesser teams in the NBA at home. Besides, it is not as if the entire Miami roster is comprised of developmental players, as they do have a couple of contributing league veterans like Ricky Davis and Mark Blount.
The bottom line here is we can’t trust a losing team with a terrible defense like the Grizzlies as a road favorite, so don’t be to shocked if the Heat do the unthinkable and win a second straight game.
Pick: Heat +4.5
Matt Fargo
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: San Diego Padres
REASON FOR PICK: Jake Peavy got the best of Brad Penny yet again in their first duel this season and I expect more of the same tonight. The Dodgers are coming off getting swept at Arizona to start the week to drop to 4-5 on the season. Los Angeles is now hitting only .238 on the season including .220 against right-handed pitching which is obviously not a good sign heading into this one. The losing has been contagious dating back to last season as Los Angeles is 4-10 in its last 14 games following a loss.
San Diego lost two of three in San Francisco as the last two defeats were one-run losses. The offense was kept in check over those final two games which was surprising considering that the Padres have been kitting well. They are batting .282 on the season including .294 against right-handed pitching and should be in good shape to get that going once again. The Padres are 13-4 in their last 17 games against a team with a losing record and will be out for some revenge following the last series loss to the Dodgers.
Jake Peavy has left no doubt that last season’s Cy Young year was no fluke. He has jumped out to a 2-0 start while posting a 0.56 ERA and 0.56 WHIP. One of those wins came against the Dodgers already this season, a team he has owned throughout the years. Peavy is 10-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 19 career starts against Los Angeles and this includes a 2007 campaign where he went 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in five starts. The Padres are 11-1 in his last 12 starts against the Dodgers.
Brad Penny is also off to a solid start. He shutout the Giants in 6.2 innings in his first start but he allowed four runs on 10 hits in six innings against the Padres last time out. He has had trouble with San Diego in the past as he is 3-7 with a 5.63 ERA in 15 career starts against the Padres. He has allowed four runs or more four of his last five starts against San Diego. Overall, the Dodgers are 1-5 in Penny’s last six against San Diego as well as 1-5 in the last six when these two aces square off. Play San Diego Padres 1 Unit
USA Sports Consulting
Pittsburgh -104
Todays Free Winner
Angels +1.5
Wunderdog
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Pick: Cincinnati -106
The change of scenery and an opportunity may be just what Edinson Volquez needed. The Reds parted company with Josh Hamilton to bring Volquez over from the Rangers, and it may give them yet another live, young arm with electric stuff. Volquez punched out eight hitters in 5.1 innings in his first start for the Reds, allowing just one run. Paul Maholm picked up right where he left off last season with a 5.02 ERA as he allowed five runs in five innings in his first start. Last year, opponents scored six runs or more in half of his starts and that isn't conducive to winning many games, especially on a bad team. The Reds appear to be a much improved team while the Pirates are making their usual march to the basement at 3-6. Reds win this one on the road.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Cavs/Bulls UNDER 197
The Under is 7-1 in the Cavaliers last 8 games playing on 1 days rest, 8-3 in Cavaliers last 11 vs. the Eastern Conference, and 25-11-1 in the Cavaliers last 37 Friday games. The Under is 7-1 in the Bulls last 8 games as a home underdog and 4-1 in the Bulls last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Bulls have really had trouble scoring the basketball, having been held under 90 points in three straight games. The Bulls are a much better defensive team at home and they will hold down a Cleveland offense that has been sputtering down the stretch. Take the UNDER.
Philly Connection
2* Toronto/NewJersey Over 202
Karl Garrett
Cleveland -4' at CHICAGO
The Cavaliers need to prove they can handle this Chicago team that they made their massive trade with a little while back. Since the trade, the Bulls have been able to win and cover the last pair of series meetings!
That should change tonight, as the Bulls have been eliminated from the playoff chase, and have little to play for. Cleveland still needs to win so they can secure home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, so expect the Cavaliers to bring their "A"-game tonight.
The Bulls have lost 3 in a row, and 6 of their last 8 both straight up, and against the spread, while the Cavaliers are 21-18 against the spread on the road this year.
Go with Cleveland to win and cover this one.
3* CLEVELAND
JB'S COMPUTER PLAYS
7:35 p.m. Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
(R) Tim Hudson (1-0) vs. (L) Matt Chico (0-1) Atlanta Braves - 160
8:05 p.m. Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
(R) Jesse Litsch (1-0) vs. (R) Vicente Padilla (1-0) Texas Rangers - 110
8:05 p.m. Florida Marlins at Houston Astros
(R) Ricky Nolasco (0-0) vs. (R) Roy Oswalt (0-2) Florida Marlins + 170
9:40 p.m. Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
(L) Jeff Francis (0-1) vs. (R) Brandon Webb (2-0) Arizona Diamondbacks - 150 * * *
*** BEST BET
Wolkosky Milan
10* CHICAGO +5
10* SEA/SAS UNDER 186½
10* MIL/BOS UNDER 197
Winners Edge
NBA
Indiana Pacers +5.5 , 2 Units
Ny Knicks +5 ,1 Unit
La Lakers -3 , 1 Unit
MLB
Atlanta Braves Rl -1.5 (even ) , 2 Units
Toronto Bjays -110 , 2 Units
King Creole
Seattle Supersonics @ San Antonio Spurs
1* Play on: SEATTLE SUPERSONICS
A pretty hefty line in tonight's game for the Spurs... and we note that San Antonio is 2-8 ATS in their history when favored by -17 or more points. Withing that 2-8 ATS 'set', we note that the Spurs are a PERFECT 0-7 ATS when favored by this many points when their current YTD winning percentage is .666 or higher.
San Antonio 's**t the bed' a couple of nights ago as they were favored at home against the Phoenix Suns.... and were shocked as they lost by 17 points. We note that the Spurs are a PERFECT 0-4 ATS at home off a SU home loss of 15+ points. More importantly, they qualify in a great 2007/08 'Play AGAINST' System:
NBA teams are 3-9 ATS this season off a SU home loss of 15+ points as a FAVORITE of -5 or more. If that last loss was versus a fellow Conference opponent, these 'shell-shocked' teams are a PERFECT 0-7 ATS.
Seattle completes the "Texas Triangle" tonight as they have played Houston and Dallas in their last two road games. In the 2007/08 season, NBA road teams playing off BB road losses of 15+ points each are 8-2 ATS when taking on a team with a current YTD winning percentage of .666 or higher... and a PERFECT 3-0 ATS if that opponent is off a DD SU loss (like the Spurs ARE).
Finally, we note that in the ALL-TIME history of our Playbook NBA database, NBA teams are 9-3 ATS on the road against the Spurs (when they are .666 >) AFTER playing a road game against Houston... and a road game against Dallas. These teams are 7-1 ATS when playing off a SUATS loss (Sonics).
GAMBLERSWORLD TIP OF THE DAY
Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The Oakland Athletics and the Cleveland Indians will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Progressive Field. The Athletics will trot ace Joe Blanton out to the mound in this one. Righthander Blanton has a 0-2 record and a 3.44 ERA this season. Blanton's opponent in this one will be CC Sabathia. The Indians ace lefthander has a 7.60 ERA to go along with a 0-1 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Indians listed as 160-moneyline favorites versus the Athletics, while the game's total is sitting at 8½. The A's scored twice in the top of the 12th inning and defeated the Blue Jays 3-2 for a sweep of the three-game series on Thursday. The A's won the game as +135 underdogs, while the five runs fell UNDER the posted over/under (9). Travis Buck was 3-for-6 at the plate and drove in all three Oakland runs. Joey Devine tossed two shutout innings of relief for the win, and Keith Foulke grabbed his first save of the season. The Indians lost 9-5 to the Angels in the rubber match of the series on Wednesday. Oddsmakers had the Indians at EVEN odds in that game, while the combined 14 runs made it OVER the posted over/under (9). Jhonny Peralta was 3-for-5 at the plate with a solo home run for the Indians. Paul Byrd was rocked for six runs over three innings in the loss. Current streak: Oakland has won 3 straight games. Team records: Oakland: 6-4 SU Cleveland: 4-5 SU Oakland most recently: When playing on Friday are 4-6 Before playing Cleveland are 4-6 After playing Toronto are 8-2 After a win are 5-5 Cleveland most recently: When playing on Friday are 6-4 Before playing Oakland are 4-6 After playing LA Angels are 4-6 After a loss are 6-4 A few trends to consider: Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Cleveland The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 13 games Oakland is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Cleveland Cleveland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home Cleveland is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Oakland The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Oakland Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Harris Sports San Diego Padres +101
KM Sports Computer Sheet LA Angels Under 8.0
KingTSports St Louis Cardinals -128
CM Million Dollar Picks Washington Wizards +5
Sports Monitor
Suns/Rockets Under
Freepicks.net
DBacks
Easy Money
Texas Rangers
Winning Colors Picks
Orlando Magic
Billy Coleman
Mets
Valley Sports
Sonics
Astros
Dr Vegas
Dodgers
THE VEGAS BEARD
Yankees
Ferringo MLB
4* Atl
2* Boston
1.5* Houston
1.5* LAA