NHL DUNKEL
Philadelphia at Washington
The Flyers enjoyed a nice turnaround from last season's last-place finish, but run into a Washington team that won seven straight down the stretch to clinch the Southeast Division. The Caps are the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has Washington favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-155). Here are all of today's games.
FRIDAY, APRIL 11
Game 15-16: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.932; Washington 12.393
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-155); Under
Game 17-18: Ottawa at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.919; Pittsburgh 11.951
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-220); 5
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-220); Over
Game 19-20: NY Rangers at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.268; New Jersey 10.547
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-120); 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+100); Over
Game 21-22: Colorado at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.978; Minnesota 12.067
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Under
NBA DUNKEL
Atlanta at New York
The Hawks are fighting to hold onto the last playoff spot in the East, but run into a New York team that has won three straight, including victories over Orlando and Detroit. The Knicks are the home underdog pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has New York favored straight up by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New York (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
FRIDAY, APRIL 11
Game 701-702: Indiana at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 117.738; Philadelphia 124.141
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-5 1/2); Under
Game 703-704: New Jersey at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 113.071; Toronto 121.099
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 8; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 9 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+9 1/2); Over
Game 705-706: Minnesota at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 107.607; Orlando 127.334
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 19 1/2; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 12; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-12); Under
Game 707-708: Cleveland at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.057; Chicago 115.891
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 4 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4 1/2); Under
Game 709-710: Memphis at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 109.854; Miami 108.661
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 1; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 5 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+5 1/2); Under
Game 711-712: Milwaukee at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 110.048; Boston 130.440
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 20 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 14; 197
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-14); Under
Game 713-714: Atlanta at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.162; New York 116.860
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: New York (+5 1/2); Over
Game 715-716: Washington at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 115.065; Detroit 124.515
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 9 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 4 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4 1/2); Under
Game 717-718: Seattle at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 105.968; San Antonio 128.084
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 22; 181
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio (-15); 184
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-15); Under
Game 719-720: Phoenix at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 123.591; Houston 125.746
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Under
Game 721-722: Portland at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 113.297; Sacramento 119.796
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 6 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 205
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-3); Under
Game 723-724: New Orleans at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 123.810; LA Lakers 125.535
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1 1/2; 215 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4 1/2; 212
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+4 1/2); Over
MLB DUNKEL
Toronto at Texas
The Rangers come off a double-header sweep of Baltimore yesterday and look to stay in the win column behind starter Vicente Padilla, who makes his first home start after picking up victories in a pair of road starts against the Angels and Mariners. Texas is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-105). Here are all of today's games.
FRIDAY, APRIL 11
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 15.286; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.498
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Under
Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Marquis) 15.169; Philadelphia (Myers) 14.707
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 955-956: Milwaukee at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 15.350; NY Mets (Figueroa) 15.005
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+115); Under
Game 957-958: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.353; Washington (Chico) 14.517
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-155); Over
Game 959-960: Florida at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 14.960; Houston (Oswalt) 14.744
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-190); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+180); Over
Game 961-962: Colorado at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 14.284; Arizona (Webb) 16.326
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-145); Under
Game 963-964: St. Louis at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.163; San Francisco (Zito) 14.850
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Under
Game 965-966: San Diego at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Peavy) 14.845; LA Dodgers (Penny) 14.460
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Under
Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Wang) 15.937; Boston (Buchholz) 14.831
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-105); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-105); Under
Game 969-970: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Blanton) 15.678; Cleveland (Sabathia) 14.576
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+140); Over
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.871; Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.024
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140); Under
Game 973-974: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Litsch) 15.768; Texas (Padilla) 15.968
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-105); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-105); Under
Game 975-976: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hernandez) 15.720; Kansas City (Meche) 15.086
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); Under
Game 977-978: Detroit at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Willis) 13.799; White Sox (Contreras) 14.740
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Detroit (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Over
Game 979-980: LA Angels at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 14.933; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.994
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-125); Under
Matt Fargo
6* NBA Game of the Year
Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocco Vincintore
2000* NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAY OF THE YEAR
Philadelphia -4
Best Sports Picks
Memphis -4.5
76ers -5
INDIAN COWBOY
Raptors -9.5 (POD)
Typically I am not a fan of favorites, but then again, if you remember, I took the Magic with this same exact spread against the Bulls and they covered with great ease by more than 20 points. Remember what the principle of that game was? It was revenge. Given that these 2 teams dislike each other greatly, Toronto remembers losing by 9 on the road in a game they desperately need to win, they still need to win this game to secure home court in the first round of the playoffs, the Nets bench is weak as evidenced by their collapse at Cleveland, it is abundantly clear there is no post-season for this team in the near future, thus, Toronto plays with massive revenge here, on the day that Bargnani is likely to return and Ford is also listed as probable, they are at home and the previous 2 times they have played this team before losing on the road, they won by 18 and 35 and I can easily see a blowout today - look for the Raps to do very well at home with revenge today - the Home team is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these 2 teams and the Nets are just 1-9-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning home record on the road - meaning when the Nets are on the road facing strong home teams, they get pummeled ATS
Vegas Runner
NJD -120 vs NYR 2* ML WAGER **
What I wanted to pass along about this play is just how much Value we are actually getting to make this wager...and Win of Lose, the Numbers just don't lie...and even though I have always been one to be extremely thorough and try to depend on my ability to gather and analyze information, as well as break down a game by being able to determine exactly what is important in determining a winner, or a winning wager...there are sometimes, when even though all of that points you in a direction...you were also able to confidently make the wager knowing that you are definately getting the best of it...and in the end, as a Professional Sports Bettor, that is all I could ever ask for and has been why I have been able to continually turn a Profit year in and year out...because I am always finding ways to get my money in when I have the best of it, and over time, the ability to do just that...will allow you to Profit...
So even though after capping this game like I always do and have the luxery of watching Game 1, as well as a lot of NHL this Season...I was able to access that even though the Devils lost by a convincing 4-1 Final...the "Bottom Line" is that the score was very misleading and they played a solid game of hockey and couldn't get any breaks...but as I mentioned above, I am not going to waste your time passing along all those stats that you are able to find with a click of the mouse, that will go to justify my wager, instead I will pass along those Numbers which I stated tells me that we are getting our money in, while having the best of it...
The True Odds for a 70% Winning Situation is -233...so that means if we have a Play that WINS 70% of the Time, we should be able to lay up to -233 and still break even...anything below that figure will show us a Profit....
Today, we are only being asked to lay -120, to get that same 70% Winning Situation...let me explain...
In GM2 of an NHL SERIES, regardless the Round, if the Road Team Won Gm1...they have gone on to have a "65-118" (35%) Record in the 2nd Game...
In GM2 of the 1st ROUND of an NHL SERIES, if the Road Team Won Gm1...they have gone on to have a "20-45" (31%) Record in the 2nd Game...
Now to show that this isn't just the case in the NHL, we went ahead to see how these teams do in all Sports with a 7 Gm Series:
After Winning the 1st Game on the Road, that Team has gone on to Win Game 2 at a 28% clip (21-54)...
So in closing, I really want to stress to you that although each game is an independent event on its own...what we are able to gather from such a large sample size, is that there is strong data to support that the HOME TEAM has an excellent chance of Winning Gm 2 in this situation...and as I stated at the beginning...when the work I put it also supports the Home Team...well then I can conclude that we are definately getting our money in with the best of it.
MIN -135 vs 2 COL 2* ML WAGER **
PLEASE SEE NJ DEVILS WAGER for ANALYSIS of this PLAY...
PHI -125 vs WAS 1* REGULATION WAGER
FLYERS +1/2 (-125)...I really was tempted to take the ML here with the Flyers as the Dog, but had set the Wanted Take-Back Price at +135/+140 and although that was available when this number was first sent out...I am aware that you will not be able to find it prior to Game-Time, so I decided that even having to lay the -125 now offers us some solid Value with a Team that can very easily win the game SU...
SAN / SEA Over 183.5 2* NBA TOTAL of the DAY
I know exactly what you are thinking...but before you conclude that I am crazy let me explain the reasoning for this wager, and I will exclude all of the statistical data and stick to the bottom line...for starters, we are getting a very low number to begin with, so that appealed to me right off the bat...and then when I saw that the Outfits went ahead and got down on the Under as soon as this one came out, and then the public followed right behind and the books were forced to drop it even further...the Value for the Over increased a little bit more...
Now what we see though is the Syndicates coming right back and buying up some of that Over action and the reason for that is simple...because after having time to capp the game, rather than when they wager on the opening numbers, because those bets are based solely on the fact that the number they have differs from what is offered...it appears that they were able to uncover many of the same factors I did and now see that they may have jumped the gun and backed the wrong horse...
What I will say is this...take one look at the San Antonio Sports Page and all you will hear about is how they really need to get their offense in sync prior to the Playoffs...and that is coming from the Players and the Coaching Staff which continues to claim that they are extremely disappointed at their offensive performance in the past few games and that their only priority right now is to speed up their possessions and play a much quicker brand of basektball offensively...so that they can increase their scoring output which has been dismal of late...
We also know that the Spurs will be looking to turn it on especially against the Sonics who they still haven't forgiven for the last meeting between the 2...and with that, you can also expect Seattle to be well aware of this fact and come in looking to pick up the pace and not allow the Spurs to defend them to death...
Overall, what we are looking to do tonight is take full advantage of the market..and that means that we are trying to stay well ahead of the over-adjustments that happen so many times during a season, and based on a very small sample of results...so like I said, you may not love this play, and you may think that I am crazy for having the balls to step up and fire a 2* at it...but when things just seem to add up, I have always been able to put my own personal feelings aside, in order to go after the Profits...and it has definately served me well in the past.
NYK / ATL Under 210 1* TOTAL
DET (-130) vs WAS 2* TEASER PLAY of the DAY
DETROIT +1 & HOUSTON +9 (2*) Teaser...Just can't believe that the Rockets are now a 3.5 pt Dog at Home in what is a huge game for both clubs, while the Pistons may look to rest some starters later in the game, but being at home and now only being asked to Win the game SU is offering us a lot of Value because this line should have been closer to -8 than what is being offered...Lets see if we can IMPROVE on our "17-4" TEASER PLAY of the DAY RUN !!!
DET -4.0 vs WAS 1* WAGER * (BUY the 1/2 POINT)
For the Final few games of the NBA Season, we will have lean more on the 1*s to turn a Profit as we await the Post-Season where we will be ready to DROP some BOMBS just like the NCAA Tournament...
HOU 4.0 vs PHO 1* WAGER * (BUY the 1/2 POINT)
MIA 6.0 -120 vs MEM 1* WAGER * (BUY the 1/2 POINT)
WAS / ATL Over 9 1* TOTAL
ARI / COL Over 8 1* TOTAL
WAS +142 vs ATL 1* ML WAGER
SFG +120 vs STL 1* ML WAGER
SEA -117 vs ANA 2* ML WAGER
LOS +100 vs SDP 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY (SPLIT WAGER)
DODGERS ev (2*)
DODGERS -1.5 (+205) (1*)
CLE -160 vs OAK 2* ML WAGER
KAN -135 vs MIN 2* ML WAGER **
LOS / SDP Over 7 1* TOTAL
BOS -106 vs NYY 2* ML WAGER **
Ferrall
Rays -155 on ML over Orioles—Shields is tough and Tampa is too. He beats Guthrie tonight in St.Pete. He’s already beat the O’s once this season. Guthrie’s ERA is 5.11. He gave up six runs to the Rays on opening day
Minnesota +130 on ML over Royals—I say Livan Hernandez wins in KC over the Royals, who lost to Yanks Thursday 6-1. Hernandez is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA. Gil Meche has been horrible so far with an ERA of 6.94
Seattle -125 on ML over Angels—Felix Hernandez beats Jared Weaver in the Emerald City, and it’s the first time he’s beaten them in five starts. He was unreal in his last start, going 8 innings and allowing NO RUNS at Baltimore. Seattle had a bad 2-5 trip but turn it around tonight at home.
Sebastian
100* Arizona Diamondbacks
20* Oak
20* CWS
20* Minn
20* SD
20* Hous
20* STL/SF Over
50 Rangers/Devils Under
50 Phil/Wash Over
Marc Lawrence 18-0 ATS NBA Fan Appreciation Play!
Play On: Chicago Bulls
Note: The Bulls host the Cavs in a Central Division battle in the Windy City in a matchup with one team (Cleveland) off a blowout win and the other (Chicago) off a blowout loss. With that a myriad of winning angles come into play, starting with the fact that .285 or greater division home dogs of 4 or more points off a loss of 24 or more points are 7-0 ATS against an opponent off a win of 20 or more points. In addition, from a series perspective, Chicago is 7-0 SU and ATS at home against Cleveland from Game 59 out when the Cavs are off a SU and ATS win. Tie that into the fact that Cleveland is 0-4 SU and ATS this season away in division games off a SU and ATS win this season. The clincher, though is an angle fro our powerful database that tells us to: Play On any NBA underdog from Game 79 out during the regular season is they are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games versus an opponent off a win of more than 10 points that failed to cover the spread by 17 or more points in its last game. Teams in this role are 18-0 ATS since 1991. Look for Cleveland to dip to 1-8 SU and ATS in road games this season off a same season revenge win when facing a .375 or better opponent here tonight. Grab the points with the Bulls
KBHoopsFanatics (4* POD 18-7)
NBA
4 units Boston Celtics -14
4 units Sacramento Kings -2
MLB
4 units Kansas City -131 Meche
4 units Kansas City UNDER 8.5
4 units Pittsburgh -105 Maholm
3 units Colorado +135 Francis
3 units St. Louis -126 Lohse
JEFFERSONSPORTS FULL CARD
MLB
PITTSBURGH+100
CHICAGO CUBS-113
MILWAUKEE-115
COLORADO+135
NBA
WASHINGTON+4
HOUSTON UNDER 204
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
FIRST EVER $1,000,000 NBA GAME OF THE YEAR
Cleveland -5
Chris James Sports
4* Braves (4* plays 14-3)
2* Tigers
2* Royals
1* Mariners
3* Sixers
Rocco Vincintore Guaranteed Selections
1000* NHL POWER PLAY PLAYOFF WINNER
Minnesota -135