EZWINNERS
3 STAR: (307) MILWAUKEE (-$128) over Cincinnati
(Listing Sheets and Arroyo)
(Risking $384 to win $300)
2 STAR: (320) BALTIMORE (+$128) over NY Yankees
(Listing Cabrera only)
(Risking $200 to win $256)
2 STAR PARLAY: (306) FLORIDA (-$123) and (302) ST. LOUIS (-$143)
(Listing Miller and Wellemeyer only)
(Risking $200 to win $416)
SPORTS ADVISORS
N.Y. Mets (8-6) at Philadelphia (8-8)
Two of the top southpaws in the game square off at Citizens Bank Park, as the Phillies’ Cole Hamels (2-1, 0.82 ERA) opposes Johan Santana (1-2, 2.91) in the opener of a weekend series between division rivals.
The Mets completed a three-game sweep of the Nationals with Thursday’s grueling 3-2, 14-inning victory. New York went 6-3 during its nine-game homestand, including 2-1 against the Phillies. Also, the Mets have won six straight games against division rivals and four straight road games against left-handed starters.
Philadelphia has alternated wins and losses in its last five outings, including crushing the Astros 10-2 on Thursday. The Phillies are 4-2 on their current homestand, 19-8 in Hamels’ last 27 starts overall, 15-5 in his last 20 outings at home and 5-0 in their last five games on Friday.
Prior to winning the final two games of last week’s series against the Phillies, New York had lost nine straight to its rivals, including going 0-5 in its last five contests at Citizens Bank Park.
Hamels has been virtually unhittable through his first three starts, giving up just three runs (two earned) on 11 hits in 22 innings. In his most recent start, Hamels allowed just a single hit over seven scoreless innings of a 7-1 home victory over the Cubs. In his lone road start this year, the hard-throwing lefty beat the Reds 5-3, giving up two runs (one earned) on five hits in seven innings.
Hamels is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in four career starts against the Mets, with Philadelphia splitting the four contests, going 1-1 on the road and at home.
Santana suffered his second straight loss on Saturday, giving up five runs (four earned) on six hits (three home runs) in 6 2/3 innings, falling 5-3 to the Brewers. In two road outings, the former Cy Young winner is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA. Santana’s lone career start against the Phillies came way back in 2002 in an interleague game when he was with the Twins.
The under is 6-0 in Hamels’ last six starts overall and 5-0 in his last five outings at home, but the over is 3-1 in his four career games against the Mets (2-0 at home). Meanwhile, the over is 4-1 in Santana’s last four starts going back to last season when he was with Minnesota.
The over is 19-9-1 in New York’s last 29 overall and 10-2 in its last 12 on the road (4-1 this year). However, the under is 5-2 in Philadelphia’s last seven overall and 7-3-1 in the last 11 series meetings between these clubs (3-0-1 in Philadelphia).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Diego (8-8) at Arizona (11-4)
Just hours after completing the longest game in franchise history, the Padres kick off a five-game road trip with their first visit to the desert in the opener of a three-game weekend set. San Diego will hand the ball to future Hall-of-Famer Greg Maddux (2-0, 2.00 ERA), while the red-hot DBacks will counter with Dan Haren (2-0, 2.50).
San Diego went 22 innings last night against Colorado and came up empty in a 2-1 loss with the game lasting more than six hours. The Padres have dropped two in a row and six of their last 10. Also, they’ve split their six road games so far this year, alternating wins and losses in the last four, including Sunday’s 1-0 win at the Dodgers.
The DBacks, who took Thursday off, have won 10 of their last 12 since starting the season 1-2, and three of their four losses have come by a single run. Arizona, which leads the majors in runs scored (93) and team ERA (2.98), is off to a 5-1 start at home and is 16-5 in its last 21 at Chase Field dating to last season. Finally, Bob Melvin’s squad has won 10 of its last 12 regular-season contests against N.L. West rivals.
Arizona has been a house of horrors for the Padres in recent years, as they’ve lost 54 of their last 79 games at Chase Field. Last year, the DBacks won the season series from San Diego 10-8, which proved to be the difference in the N.L. West race, as Arizona finished 1½ games ahead of the Padres and a game ahead of Colorado.
Maddux has been phenomenal in his last two outings, giving up a total of one run, five hits and three walks over 12 innings, beating the Giants 8-4 and the Dodgers 1-0, both on the road. Last year – his first with San Diego – the veteran right-hander went 6-6 with a 4.65 ERA in 18 road starts.
On the downside for Maddux, his worst career numbers by far have come against the DBacks, as he’s 2-10 with a 4.88 ERA in 18 lifetime starts, including 1-6 with a 5.37 ERA at Chase Field. Last year, though, Maddux was 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA in three outings versus the Snakes, with the Padres winning the one no-decision.
Haren, who was acquired from Oakland in the offseason, has been spectacular through three starts in a DBacks uniform, including in Saturday’s 10-3 rout of the Rockies. In that contest, the right-hander gave up just a single run on five hits in six innings. In fact, going back to last September, Haren has pitched exactly six innings in five straight starts, posting a 2.40 ERA during this stretch.
Haren’s last two starts have come at home – his only career appearances at Chase Field –as he’s 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. Also, he’s started against San Diego twice in his career – once when with the Cardinals in 2003, once with the A’s in 2006 – and he’s posted a 1.69 ERA. He didn’t get a decision in either contest, but the Padres lost both games.
Maddux’s 1-0 win at L.A. on Sunday easily stayed under the total, snapping a 5-0-1 “over” streak in Maddux starts that dated to last September. The over is still 4-2-1 in his last seven efforts on the highway and 3-1 in his last four against Arizona. Also, the over is on streaks of 3-0 in Haren’s three starts this year. 23-8-1 for the Padres on the road, 19-7-2 for the Padres on Fridays, 5-1 for the DBacks overall, 5-1 for the DBacks at home this year, 4-0 overall in this rivalry and 5-0-1 in the last six clashes in Arizona.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
Jimmy Broadway
300* Indians
300* Astros
Ted Sevransky
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
REASON FOR PICK: We began our support of Rays rookie starter Jeff Niemann in his MLB debut. We’ll continue it here, in his second MLB start The 6-9, 280 pound Niemann was the fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft. He quickly rose through the minors and enjoyed a tremendous spring with Tampa Bay: 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts. Manager Joe Maddon didn’t have a roster spot for the promising youngster, but injuries to Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza have paved the way for Niemann to get his first shot last weekend against the Orioles. The results were stellar: six innings of one run, six hit baseball, striking out five while walking only one. From all accounts, this is one young hurler who should be successful right from the get-go.
Meanwhile, the Rays offense has started to come around (47 runs scored in their last eight games), despite the early season struggles of big bats Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena. Ultra hyped rookie third baseman Evan Longoria is finally in the lineup, living up to expectations. Another top prospect, center fielder BJ Upton, has settled in nicely at the cleanup spot. Perhaps most importantly of all, the Rays have gotten solid work out of their bullpen in early season play, a unit that was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster last year. Joe Maddon’s squad is a young team with a strong recent history of playing much better at home than they do on the road. We’re getting a very reasonable price here to support an ascending team with a young phenom starter on the hill. Take the Rays.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Pittsburgh +125
Rich Hill has really struggled with his command so far walking seven and hitting a batter, lasting only nine combined innings in two starts. The Pirates have won all three games Ian Snell has pitched thus far. Snell has completed at least six innings in all of them running his streak to eight straight getting through the 6th inning. The Pirates are now 8-3 over his last 11 starts dating back to last year including 5-1 on the road. The Cubs have been streaky early winning and losing games in bunches, and they are coming off a loss, and we like the Pirates here.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -120
(listing Redding and Miller)
9-6 Florida was blown out yesterday 8-0 by the Braves. The Fish will come storming back today against the 4-12 Nats. The Nationals are 1-12 in their last 13 overall and 0-7 in their last 7 road games. They are only 6-20 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Nationals are also 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in this matchup. The Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. the National League East, an impressive 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series, and 7-3 in their last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take the Marlins in this bounce back spot against the struggling Nats.
PRICELESS PICKS
1 Unit on Oakland A's -104
(listing Bannister and Gaudin)
After getting crushed last night by the Mariners, I like the A's to bounce back at home with a big win. The Athletics are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, 7-2 in their last 9 games as an underdog, and 13-5 in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Royals are 0-7 in their last 7 Friday games, 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road favorite, 5-12 in their last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter, and 4-10 in their last 14 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. This is the Royals 5th straight game on the road and long road trips are especially tough early in the year. We'll take the A's in this bounce back spot.
Wunderdog
Dallas at Anaheim
Pick: Dallas +130
Turco is playing fantastic right now, completely frustrating the Ducks. The Stars are feeding off his play. The Ducks have scored one third period goal in this series! ONE GOAL! Anaheim has never rallied from a 3-1 series deficit in franchise history. Dallas is 4-1 in its last five games on the road. Dallas is also 9-4 in its last 13 games when playing Anaheim. No doubt about it - the defending champs have their hands full. Dallas has been the better team in this series and they play well on the road. Look for the Stars to pull out the 4-1 series victory tonight. Take Dallas as a dog against Anaheim.
Terron Chapman
Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Kansas City Royals
If you followed our selections then you would know for the last two evenings we have faded the Oakland A's in their last two meetings against the Mariners, a team they have struggled with at home recently. Well the Mariners might have left town but the A's struggle haven't, and we find them in a fade situation again this evening when the surprise Kansas City Royals and one of their young aces, Brian Bannister visit for the first of a three game set.
The A's offense is struggling right now to say the least. In their last five games they have a record of 1-4 and are averaging 1.4 runs/gm in that span. Tonight won't bring any relief as they face a pitcher who has been outstanding so far this season. Brian Bannister is 3-0 with an 0.86 ERA in three starts. He will be opposed by Chad Gaudin for the A's who will be taking the mound for the first time at home this year, but has struggled in his only two starts on the road this year. Gaudin in those two starts has an ERA of 7.20 in just 10 IP and lost his last outing against the Royals in Oakland giving up 5 ER and 10 hits in 6 IP of a 7-3 loss last season.
The Royals come into this game with confidence having won four of the their last five in Oakland. The Royals are 7-1 in Bannisters last 8 road starts while the A's are just 1-4 in Gaudins last 5 starts as a home favorite and 3-9 in Gaudins last 12 starts on 4 days rest. I think the Royals are the better team with the better pitcher on the hill tonight, and recommend a play of 2 units on the Royals. Best of luck!
John Ryan
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros
Play: Colorado Rockies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Colorado. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-8 and has made 30.1 units since 1997. Play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that is a poor NL offensive team scoring =5.00 and starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. Well, as this system points out the only rested players will be the starters after last night’s epic game lasting 22 innings. By the way, that was one of the winners yesterday along with a 5* Monster winner on Philadelphia and a 10* Monster Game of the Month winner on Boston. Houston is in several poor roles for this game and I will note a few of them. Houston is just 4-12 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in home games versus terrible power teams that are averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons; 12-22 (-17.3 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opposition by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Speaking of home runs, Colorad0 is 30-19 and has made 16.1 units after 2 straight games with no home runs. Take Colorado.
Tony Karpinski
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
The Mets at home beat last place Washington 1-0 in 14 innings last night and played deep into the night plus had to travel. Philadelphia is 4-2 on the current home stand off beating Houston 10-2 Thursday. The Phillies bats are finally starting to come alive led by Utley and Howard. The Phillies are also 15-5 last 20 Hamel's home starts and 9-2 last 11 meetings.
THE VEGAS BEARD
3* TB Rays +05
Drew Gordon
1. 300,000* Indians
2. 50,000* Chi. White Sox
3. 50,000* Nationals
Karl Garrett
30 DIMES
METS-PHILS UNDER
10 DIMES
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Jeff Money
(NHL) DAL -125 (POD)
(MLB) CARDS -110
(MLB) INDIANS -115
(MLB) WHITESOX EV