Michael Cannon
Take the Pirates as the small home dog for the win over the Phillies.
Zach Duke will start for the Buccos and he was roughed up a bit in his last start, but I expect him to rebound with a solid performance tonight.
Duke looked good through his first three starts of the year, and I expect him to carry that over into tonight?s start. The left-hander has suffered through a couple of down years since his sensational rookie season, but the Pirates coaching staff has worked diligently with him to regain the form he showed in 2005.
Adam Eaton will start for Philadelphia, and the Bucs have had success hitting him in his career. The right-hander has a 9.74 ERA in four games against Pittsburgh, allowing 22 earned runs in just 20 1-3 innings.
Take the Pirates as they grab the home win.
3* PITTSBURGH
THE POWER PLAY INDEX
NBA
Philadelphia* .5 over Detroit
Dallas* 2 over New Orleans
Phoenix* 4 over San Antonio
NHL
Pittsburgh* (-140) .5 over N.Y. Rangers (+140)
San Jose* (-116) even with Dallas (+116)
ETHAN LAW
FLA: LHP Scott Olsen (3-0, 2.60 ERA) at MIL: RHP Yovani Gallardo (0-0, 1.29 ERA)
Well all good things have to come to an end and yesterday, was the end of a very impressive run for the Brewers. Going into yesterday game against Philadelphia, the Brewers were undefeated against left-handed pitching where they posted a mind boggling 6-0 mark +$690 with an offense that has been averaging an incredible 7.8 runs per game. Their success against left-handers this season is no deviation from prior years as they were equally impressive against left-handed pitching last season (averaging an impressive 5.6 runs per game) in all setting, while posting a ridiculous 14-6 mark +$645 against the southpaws in home/night games last season where their offense averaged a ridiculous 6.1 runs per game. My point you ask? Simply put, this is a team that is so dangerous against left-handers that even opposing managers change their pitching rotations to avoid the match-ups. According to MLB.com Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella already has altered his pitching rotation partly to avoid sending a southpaw (Rich Hill) against the Brewers next week. Even if you includes yesterday poor performance (where they only managed one run against Jamie Moyer) the Brewers are nevertheless still hitting .316 (50-for-158) this season against left-handed starters, who have a 7.17 ERA (30 earned runs in 37 2/3 innings) against Milwaukee. If you read the above, one might question why I didnt release Milwaukee on my card for this Thursday. As I have stated many times, the most important factor in considering a potential selection, is to play the numbers. What I mean by that is over the long hall we are looking for line value more then anything else. In Thursdays game against Philadelphia, Milwaukee went off at -$130 chalk, and considering I handicapped the true line to be -$125-130 I saw no value in the line despite what appeared to me almost a perfect situational and match-up situation. In contrast, my followers also know that I picked up a very nice +$127 profit on Milwaukee this past Wednesday when I set the line what I believed the true line to be +$110. So the difference between choosing this team in setting vs. playing them in another (even thought they are facing a left-hander in both settings) is completely predicated on the value of the line. From my point of view, when the match-ups add up its more of a bonus then anything else, and that bonus will be in full effect in tonights game. Since I didnt release a selection on Milwaukee (and I knew this was going to be a match-up) I was going to look into early in the week, I was quit happy with the Brewers loss yesterday. Why? Well if they were 7-0 against left-handers the value of tonights line might not be what it is tonight as this is one of the more favorable and value laden lines I have come across all season. Just to put one further addendum, this will be the first selection I am recommending this season of over -$120. The opening number in this contest opened with Milwaukee being a -$140 favorite and was quickly moved to -$145 within 15 minutes of the line being posted. I handicapped the true line to be from -$215 to -$220 so from the start, we are getting almost $80 of value, which would make this selection the second highest rated selection of this early season.
Now I will conceded that some bettors may have be cautious laying that kind of chalk against an on paper elite left-hander pitcher, but as I will discuss, Olsens 2008 season is a substantial deviation of what his numbers will be when its all said and done. I have discussed the idea of parody a lot just like how for weeks I told you all Detroit would begin to blow people away sooner then later. Similar to that theory, Olsen will not continue his early season success. At 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA few could argue that Olsen has had an impressive season. Although, it should be noted that two of his four starts were against the hapless Nationals team (who was not scoring against anybody early in the season) one was against the lowly Pirates, but to give Olsen credit, he did pitch well against the dangerous Atlanta offense on April 15th. With that out of the way, Olsen is still a pitcher that was a poor 10-15 with a whopping 5.81 ERA last season. Really the only difference between last season and this season, is the fact that Olsen has gotten ahead of hitters early and throwing a very high percentage of strikes. Unfortunately, for Olsen he is not striking out hitters at the rates he did previously as he has just 13 strikeouts in 27.2 innings pitched this season. The lack of strikeouts is alarming for Olsen (or any pitcher for that matter) and the fact that he has allowed only just 19 hits is more of a sign of dumb luck more then anything else. Indeed, pitchers with Olsens K/BB ratio traditionally have ERAs of over five. So one of two things is in store for Olsen, ether 1) he will revert back to his wild self and walk a plethora of batters or 2) all the balls being put into play will start falling for hits and not out. Ether one is bad. Even worse news is the fact that this is a Milwaukee team that punished first pitch strikes and given their success against left-handers it will be all bad news for Olsen tonight. Milwaukee will counter with right-hander sensation in the young Yovani Gallardo. The 22-year-old made his season debut in the hitter friendly confines of great American Ballpark where he held the Reds to just a single run on four hits in seven innings. Gallardo was especially good at Miller Park last season, going 5-2 with a 2.77 ERA. A concern however, is the fact that Florida has been very impressive so far this season against right-handers on the road as they are 5-1 +$555 where they are averaging an incredible 7.8 runs per game. Our only other concern is the fact that Floridas bullpens is a full run better in the early season then Milwaukees, so lets just hope Gagne does not factor into the outcome of this one tonight.
From the technical perspective, we have absolute domination by the Brewers, which should give us the warm fuzzy feeling before going to the window to place our wagers. For starters, the Brewers come into this contest with an impressive 33-10 +$2010 in home games against national League teams with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons, with an average win margin of 2.2 runs per game! Now I mentioned the quality (and concern) about the Florida bullpen, but I did not mention that they are currently the third most overused bullpen in the National League so they have many tired arms waiting to be exposed. That fits into a situational trend that states to play against any road team with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game (Florida bullpen averages 3.7 per game) with a hot starting pitcher with a WHIP less then 1.000 over his last 3 starts. The trend is an incredible 135-79 +$6330 over the last 5 seasons. In addition to that monster trend, there are also 5 additional trends all over 62% in favor of Milwaukee in tonight setting. What something even better? This game also fits into a super situational trend that states to play on home teams that are batting .225 or worse of their last 15 games (Milwaukee) against an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up less than 2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. That situational trend is a mind boggling 34-11 +$2550 (75.6%) over the last 5 seasons. Considering that all three of my forecast models have Milwaukee winning this game by 4 runs or more we have no other choice but to also take a shot at the run line to reduce our risks of a hug vig hit. Milwaukee rolls!
Verdict: Florida 2, Milwaukee 7
PLAY 1/2* UNIT (1%) ON MILWAUKEE -$145;
PLAY 1/2* ON MILWAUKEE (-1.5) +$130
JIM FEIST
Take LA Angels
A big edge on the mound and in the bullpen for the visitors. Young LA starter Ervin Santana is harnessing his great stuff at 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA. He's tough to hit and has a sizzling 22-6 K/BB ratio. Tigers starter Nate Robertson doesn't have it, at 0-2 with an ERA over 7. He averages 5 innings per start, which is worse when you throw in Detroit's bullpen struggles. Robertson is also 0-4 with an 8.91 ERA against the Angels. An excellent spot for the visitors. Play the Angels!
DAVE COKIN
Atlanta righty Jair Jurrjens is on a roll and he's catching a decent price to boot as the Braves open a weekend set at Shea against the Mets. Mike Pelfrey got knocked around in his last start and continues to be little more than a stopgap back of the rotation type. The Mets are being flat out overpriced right now as they're playing .500 ball and the dog has the better pitcher going in this contest. Jurrjens and the Braves are the choice
Tony Mathews
Matchup: LA Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Selection: LA Angels +105
Explanation: We will side with the LA Angels as they face-off against the Detroit Tigers in Friday's MLB contest.
The LA Angels will use starting pitcher Ervin Santana. Ervin Santana has pitched well so far this season. Ervin Santana is a Perfect 3-0 with a 2.26 ERA. We see Ervin Santana having another solid start today.
The Detroit Tigers will use starting pitcher Nate Robertson. Nate Robertson has struggled so far this season. In fact, Nate Robertson has a 7.48 ERA on the season. We see Nate Robertson once again giving up many runs today.
The LA Angels have had long-term success against the Detroit Tigers. In fact, the LA Angels are 38-14 in their last 52 meetings against the Detroit Tigers.
Take the LA Angels!
CAPPERS ACCESS
Hornets
Cubs
Royals
Hot Lock sports
New York Yankees -119
NYY are 9-3 L 12 meetings and they are 9-1 in Pettites L 10 road starts. Cleveland has lost a little home luster as they are 2-6 L 8 at home and theyhave no offensive consistency yet. Byrd is 0-3 L 3 starts and remember he is OFF the juice. We saw what happened to Closer Gagne when he went off it.Yankees for 3 units!
Brian Marshall
Game: Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Plays On: Oakland Athletics +105
Game Analyses: The Oakland Athletics are in a great spot tonight as they take on the Seattle Mariners.
The Oakland Athletics will be lead by Dana Eveland. Dana Eveland has pitched very well so far this season. In fact, Dana Eveland has a 1.90 ERA on the season. To say the least, Dana Eveland should be able to hold the Seattle Mariners to scoring very few runs.
The Seattle Mariners will be lead by Miguel Batista. Miguel Batista has struggled so far this season. In fact, Miguel Batista has a 4.38 ERA on the season. We see Miguel Batista giving up many runs today.
We don't mind the fact that the Oakland Athletics will be on the road. That's because the Oakland Athletics have played solid baseball on the road. In fact, the Oakland Athletics are 6-2 in their last 8 road games.
Take the Oakland Athletics!
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Play on: LA Angels over Detroit
No doubt the Tigers have regained offensive form, especially with Granderson (lead-off homer last night) back in the lineup to formulate run production at the top of the order. The Tigers have won four straight, but still are below the winning marker of a .500 season at 10-13. The Angels (14-9) are tied for first in the division with the pesky A's, but more important the west coast club is a major 8-4 on the road with a current reality streak of 8 wins in their last 11 games. RHP Santana (3-0) of LA has a solid 0.96 WHIP and his team mates have supported the hurler throughout the early going. Lefty Robertson of Detroit, however, is on down cycle in the early season with poor location up.Lifetime the hurler has never defeated LA (0-4, 8.91 ERA).Support the hot roadie this evening.
DUNKEL
MLB
The Reds, who have dropped two straight and eight of their last 11, hit the road against a San Francisco team that is 4-2 this season as a home underdog. The Giants are the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has San Francisco favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125). Here are all of today's games.
FRIDAY, APRIL 25
Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Eaton) 15.928; Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.472
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Over
Game 953-954: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.331; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.869
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+120); Under
Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 16.092; Washington (Perez) 13.794
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-125); Over
Game 957-958: Florida at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Olsen) 14.553; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.056
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-145); Over
Game 959-960: Houston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Chacon) 15.781; St. Louis (Looper) 14.255
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Under
Game 961-962: Arizona at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Johnson) 15.520; San Diego (Wolf) 14.431
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Under
Game 963-964: Cincinnati at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.378; San Francisco (Sanchez) 15.389
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Over
Game 965-966: Colorado at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 15.147; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.921
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+135); Over
Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.998; Cleveland (Byrd) 14.559
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-110); Over
Game 969-970: LA Angels at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 16.048; Detroit (Robertson) 15.690
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Over
Game 971-972: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 16.442; Tampa Bay (Garza) 14.965
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Over
Game 973-974: Minnesota at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 14.684; Texas (Millwood) 14.360
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115); Under
Game 975-976: Toronto at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Burnett) 14.231; Kansas City (Greinke) 13.620
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-110); Over
Game 977-978: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Burres) 15.407; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.680
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Under
Game 979-980: Oakland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Eveland) 15.477; Seattle (Batista) 15.671
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110); Over
NBA
The Suns have their backs to the wall and look to take advantage of a Spurs team that struggled on the road (15-26 ATS) this season. Phoenix is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Suns favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-6 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
FRIDAY, APRIL 25
Game 523-524: Detroit at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 120.332; Philadelphia 120.856
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 4; 180 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+4); Under
Game 525-526: New Orleans at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 121.657; Dallas 127.813
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 6; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas 5; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5); Over
Game 527-528: San Antonio at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 120.169; Phoenix 128.956
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 9; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-6 1/2); Under
NHL
The Penguins come off a sweep of Ottawa and face a Rangers team that they beat the last two games at home by a combined score of 7-2. Pittsburgh is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140). Here are all of today's games.
FRIDAY, APRIL 25
Game 5-6: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.288; Pittsburgh 12.264
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140); Under
Game 7-8: Dallas at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.519; San Jose 11.908
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-155); Over
Carlo Campanella
Game: Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: under
Reason: This series is tied up 1-1 after Detroit split their two home games with Philadelphia. The Total also split, 1 Over and 1 Under, as they head to Philadelphia for Game # 3 on Friday. With this being a pivotal tie breaking game that both teams need to gain a series advantage, expect a slow paced, defensive battle, especially as we find DETROIT going Under in 10 STRAIGHT road games when a Playoff series is tied.
7* Play On UNDER
Winners Edge
NBA
Detroit Pistons - 4 , 2 units
N.O Hornets + 5 , 2 units
MLB
NY Mets - 130 , 2 units
Boston Redsox - 115 , 2 units
Reds/Giants under 7.5 ,1 unit
Bryan Leonard
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Chicago Cubs
While we normally emphasize pitching in our analysis, it's hitting that gives us a huge edge tonight. Simply put the Cubs are far superior to the Nationals on offense and the line isn't reflecting the disparity. Chicago has been especially good against left-handed starters scoring a whopping 6.46 runs per game including hitting for a .310 average. Washington has scored just 3.61 runs per game vs righties while hitting just .232. Washington is just 1-10 in their last 11 games vs right-handed starters.
The Cubs send former closer Ryan Dempster to the hill with a perfect 6-0 career mark vs the Nationals. Last year in limited duty he held Washington to a .182 slugging percentage. Odalis Perez posted ERA's of 5.57 and 6.83 the past seasons. Thus far in four starts with Washington he has held the opposition to a 3.38 ERA. Most of the credit has to go to a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 3 to 1, well above his career marks. Once Perez gets up in the strike zone he can be hit hard and we would rather trust a career of information than four starts from this 30 year old lefty.
Chicago has taken 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series and the Cubs have something Washington lacks, a consistent offensive threat. We lay the cheap number with the far superior team with a pitching matchup that should be considered a wash.
PLAY CHICAGO CUBS
Jack Clayton
Reds
PLATINUM PLAYS
Hornets & Mavericks Over 196
ARTHUR RALPH
Phoenix Suns
NICK JONES
Washington Nationals +110
ARMVIN SPORTS
COLORADO ROCKIES +136
Sharp Sports Advisors
HOUSTON ASTROS +115
Platinum Sports Investing Club
Los Angeles Angels +103
florida booky busters
San Antonio/Phoenix Over 193.5
Vegas Insider Capping
Arizona Diamondbacks
MIKE WYNN
Boston w/Wakefield -130
TV HOTLINE
BOSTON -130
TOTALS4U
PHILLIES/PIRATES UNDER 9 1/2
#1 SPORTS
LOS ANGELES ANGELS + 110
DARK HORSE
Oakland
HUDDLE UP
Boston/TB Under 10
DR. VEGAS
Dodgers -150
Sharp Sports Advisors
HOUSTON ASTROS +115
Scott Spreitzer
White Sox
Bob Donahue
Yankees
Joe Wiz
Giants
Pirates
Lance's Lock
76er's +4
Paul Leiner
10* Mavericks -5
The Super Scout
Yankees vs Indians Over 9.5
PRIORITY SPORTS INFO
Boston -120
BaseballTotals
Yankees/Cleveland Over 9.5