Gina
New Orleans Hornets (58-26) at Dallas Mavericks (51-33)
The Mavericks are 34-7 at home and have taken the last five against the Hornets in Dallas, 4-1 ATS. Go with Dallas to get back in this series tonight in Game 3 at American Airlines Center. The home team in this series has covered the spread in the last 6 meetings.
Dallas Mavericks -5
Phoenix Suns - 6½
Mr. A's
NBA
Detroit Pistons - 4½
San Antonio Spurs + 6½
MLB
Atlanta Braves (11-11) at New York Mets (11-10)
New York has lost four of five and will send Mike Pelfrey to the hill. The right-hander had a bad outing in his last start on Sunday, allowing four runs and 10 hits over five innings in a 5-4 defeat to the Phillies. He is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in three appearances against Braves, including the two starts. Atlanta has won six of their last eight games and counters with Jair Jurrjens. The right-hander has pitched impressively and is 2-2 with a 3.20 ERA in four stars this season. He has never faced the Mets.
Let's go with the Mets tonight at Shea Stadium to grab their fourth straight win at home. New York has won six of their last eight home games and five of Pelfreys last 7 starts. Meanwhile, the Braves have dropped nine of its last 12 road games
New York Mets - 140
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees -120 at CLEVELAND
Tonight we like a pitcher's duel between Andy Pettitte, and Paul Byrd as the Yankees and Indians do battle in what we see as a low-scoring contest.
Pettitte's last 3 starts have all come on the road, and the southpaw has allowed just 4 earned runs over 21 innings of work for a 1.74 road ERA this season.
Byrd has been getting his act in gear after a shaky start, as the righty has gone 13 innings his last 2 starts, while allowing just 1 earned run to score.
New York has played UNDER the total in 8 of their 13 road games this season, while Cleveland has played LOW in 4 of their last 6 games to date.
Last year during the regular season, these teams played 2 of the 3 meetings at Cleveland UNDER the posted price, and we see them playing LOW again this evening.
Play on the UNDER
3* UNDER
Drew Gordon
Toronto at KANSAS CITY -105
Both of these teams are struggling at the plate, but if oddsmakers want to give me Zach Grieke, at home, at this price, I'll take it with a smile. Guys, Greike has been the Royals best pitcher, and has the numbers to back it, going 3-0 with a lockdown 1.24 ERA in 4 starts this season! In his only home start, he dominated the Yankees vaunted batting order, pitching 8 scoreless inning en route to the 4-0 Royals win! This is not the pitcher the Blue Jays lineup wants to see after struggling badly against Tampa Bay in their last series.
You can't say the same about AJ Burnett, who despite pitching well against the Royals last season, is anything but a sure thing tonight. He got his first win since April 2nd in his last start, but overall has been below average this season, going 2-1 with an ugly 6.85 ERA. The fact he walked 6 batters in his last one has to open a few eyes, and while the Royals are no offensive juggernaut, they're much better against righties, batting .265 on the year.
For all the talk about the Royals struggles at the plate, the Blue Jays are even worse off, batting .240 as a team over their last 10 games, including just .237 against righties... And it won't get any easier against Greike in this one!
Bottom line, despite losing 7 straight, there's no question Greike gives the Royals their best chance to snap their losing streak tonight, and I say they take full advantage. Burnett has struggled with inconsistency in the past, and tonight will be no different. Also, the fact the Blue Jays batting order couldn't hit a beach ball right now cannot be ignored. Royals roll!
Take Kansas City behind Greike over Toronto and Burnett in this MLB match up.
3* KANSAS CITY
San Antonio at PHOENIX -6½
Needless to say this game is an absolute "must-win" for the Suns, and I expect they'll respond accordingly tonight. I know its tough after watching the first two games of this series to lay this many point with the Suns, but the truth is, the Spurs weren't nearly as good on the road this season, and the numbers back my claim: 22-19 SU & just 15-26 ATS away! But let's dig a little deeper...
We saw in the first half of Game 2 that this Suns team is capable of scoring on this San Antonio offense at will, dropping 61 points on them. However, the Spurs clamped down on defense after that, allowing only 11 3rd quarter points by Nash and company. The change in venue should help the Suns maintain their energy levels, as they average 112 ppg on 50% shooting at home this season. Not only that, but let's not forget the Suns went 30-11 SU in Phoenix, including winning their only home game (with O'Neal in the lineup) 94-87 back on March 9th!
Finally, one of the main reasons the Suns offense fell asleep in the second half of Game 2 was their reserves tightened up in the hostile AT&T Center. This time around, expect players like Barbosa (0 of 7 for 0 points Game 2) & Diaw (4 of 8 just 9 points) to really step up in the friendly confines of home. Stoudemire, Nash, and O'Neal couldn't have played much better, and if they can get some consistent production off the bench, they can win this game going away.
Bottom line, look for the Suns to step up to the plate and deliver in this "must-win" situation at home tonight against the Spurs. Go down 0-3 to a team like San Antonio and you might as well start making vacation plans, and the Suns know this... Expect their most spirited effort of the season tonight.
Take Phoenix comfortably over San Antonio in Game 3 of this Western Conference Playoffs First Round series.
2* PHOENIX
Karl Garrett
San Antonio at PHEONIX
NBA playoff total play tonight as I like another OVER involving the Spurs.
Thus far, the first two games of this playoff series with the Suns have both easily eclipsed the posted price. That is kind of unusual, as during the regular season, the team's played UNDER in all four meetings.
Dating back to the regular season, San Antonio has played OVER the total now in 5 straight games, while Phoenix has played HIGH in 4 of their last 7 games.
For the year at home, the Suns have gone OVER in 22 of their 43 games, and with Phoenix trailing 2-0, look for the Suns to try an force an uptempo which is better-suited for them to get a "W" tonight.
Faster pace = more points, and the G-Man is calling for our third straight OVER in the series.
2* OVER
Chip Chirimbes
LA ANGELS
On Saturday, Santana gave up one run, three hits, walked none and struck out a season-high eight in eight innings of a 4-1 win over Seattle. Santana is once again showing he can dominate after going 7-14 with a 5.76 ERA and being briefly demoted to the minor leagues in 2007. The right-hander has posted a 3.46 ERA in winning both of his road starts in 2008 after going 1-10 with a 8.87 ERA in 14 starts away from Angel Stadium last season. Santana was tagged for eight runs and seven hits in 3 2-3 innings of a 12-0 loss at Comerica Park on May 24, his only start against the Tigers last season. He is 0-2 with a 15.26 ERA in two career starts at Detroit, compared to 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two home starts versus the Tigers. Detroit counters with Nate Robertson (0-2, 7.48), who is once again looking for his first win. Robertson gave up five runs and eight hits in five innings of a 5-3 loss to Toronto on Sunday. Over his four starts, the left-hander has yielded 29 hits and 18 runs in 21 2-3 innings. Robertson has also struggled against Los Angeles in his career, going 0-4 with a 8.91 ERA in seven starts. In his only outing against the Angels last season on July 27, Robertson was tagged for eight runs and 10 hits in 5 2-3 innings of an 11-6 loss. Los Angeles is coming off a 7-5 win over Boston on Thursday to take two of three at Fenway Park
Alex Smart
Los Angeles Dodgers -139
Reason: The Rockies starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez tonight has got the tools to be a major contributor in his teams pitching rotation , but his vast inexperience, continues to hinder him. He has a lot of maturing to do, and I expect it will continually come back to torch him, until he gets the innings he needs to be a force in the big show. He gave up 5 walks last time out, in just over 5 innings of work, and last year when he faced the Dodgers here in Chez Ravine, the righty got roughed up 5 runs in 4 innings, and I will not be surprised by a repeat performance. Hiroki Kuroda , the Dodgers hurler , has been very consistent in 3 outings , and when hes been hit hard, pulls up his sleeves, an gets tougher, stranding base runners in key spots. Unlike Jiminez, this guy, is very mature, and calm under pressure. Bottom line: Im leaning on the Dodgers to end a 8 game losing streak in this series, against a Colorado team , that looks like their suffering a World Series hang over, with a below 500 record, and offense that ranks them 10th in the NL, and a pitching staff that ranks 12th in ERA average. Play on the Dodgers
LT Profits
New York Rangers +130
We picked the New York Rangers to reach the Stanley Cup Finals before these playoffs started, so for our prediction to hold true, they have to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins at least once on the road in this series. Well, there is no time like the present.
The Rangers have allowed the fewest goals in the Eastern Conference this season, permitting just 2.32 goals per game. They have taken a page out of the rival New Jersey Devils’ book this year, becoming more defensive oriented and playing a neutral zone trap, with any offensive opportunities being generated by that defense. Sure, the end result is that they are only scoring 2.60 goals per game themselves, but that is fine when you allow two goals or less a majority of the time. It certainly helps to have Henrik Lundqvist and his 2.24 GAA and .913 save percentage between the pipes.
Now the Penguins are the two seed in the East, but they actually lost the season series to the Rangers 5-3 this year. Furthermore, while Pittsburgh averaged 3.00 goals per game vs. the entire league, they were stifled by the Rangers trap, averaging just a total of 17 goals in the eight meetings. They were held to two goals or less in five of those encounters and to exactly three goals in two others.
Finally, the Rangers have been great underdogs lately, going a lucrative 8-3 the last 11 times they have been cast in this role. Look for their defense to lead them to another upset win here.
Pick: Rangers +130
Dallas Mavericks -5.0
Well, all three teams that were down 0-2 in their respective series have all won and covered easily in Game 3 so far this season, and we look for the Dallas Mavericks to continue that pattern tonight vs. the New Orleans Hornets.
Desperation is usually a great motivator in the NBA Playoffs, and teams returning home down 0-2 have traditionally done very well. The Mavericks have been a great home team all year going 34-7 straight up in this building, and while they are just 17-20-4 against the spread here, that is usually because they are asked to cover much bigger spreads than this one. The fact is that their average home winning margin of +8.9 points would be more than good enough to cover this number.
Now the Hornets may be the best road team in the NBA, as they were an amazing 26-15 SU 24-15-2 ATS away from home. However, they had no success in two visits to Dallas this season, losing by 13 and nine points respectively while failing to cover on either occasion. In fact, the home team is now 6-0 both SU and ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings between these clubs.
Thus, we look for a rather comfortable Dallas victory tonight as the Mavericks get themselves back in this series.
Pick: Mavericks -5
PricelessPicks
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -125
(listing Looper)
At 8-4 this season, the Cards have been next to unstoppable on their home field. We'll take them here with one of their best hurlers on the hill. First off, the Astros are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings and 9-19 in the last 28 meetings in St. Louis. The Cardinals are 4-1 in Looper's last 5 starts vs. the Astros, 8-2 in Looper's last 10 starts as a favorite, and 6-0 in Looper's last 6 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 vs. the National League Central and 21-8 in their last 29 games as a home favorite. The last thorn in Houston's side here is that it is just 2-8 in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take the Red Birds.
FRANK ROSENTHAL
NBA PLAYOFFS
523 PISTONS-4 SB
UNDER 181 SB+
525 HORNETS+6 SB
OVER 196 SB+
527 SPURS+7 SB
OVER 193 SB+
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
952 PIRATES+115 SB
954 NYM-130 SB
958 BREWERS-155 SB
965 ROCKIES+130 SB
967 YANKS-120 SB+
977 ORIOLES+150 SB
Ferringo
4-Unit Play. Take Boston (-120) over Tampa Bay
1-Unit Play. Take Boston (-1.5, +130) over Tampa Bay
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
Tim Wakefield is an unbelievable 19-3 against the Devil Rays in his career, including a 9-1 mark in Tampa. The Sox have some guys battling the flu in their locker room. But they still have way more talent than Tampa. Matt Garza is making his first start since coming back from an injury and that’s always a hit-or-miss proposition. I’ll say miss, considering he is 1-10 in his career on artificial turf. This will be Garza’s second start at Tropicana Field and he didn’t make it out of the third inning in the last one. There is a litany of other trends and indicators which point to the Sox, and I think we’re getting great odds on the clear-cut better team.
3-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (-130) over Washington
1-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (-1.5, +125) over Washington
The Cubs are one of the hottest teams in baseball and they have been demolishing left-handed pitching. Ryan Dempster has been pretty sharp this year. And although he has pitched well, Odalis Perez has lost his last four starts. The Cubs have won six of seven in the series, have won four straight against a left-handed starter, and have won four of five on the road against a southpaw.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Arizona (-105) over San Diego
I absolutely hate the fact that we’re backing Randy Johnson. But the Diamondbacks are 25-9 against left-handed starters. They are an automatic play against southpaws until further notice. It helps that they are the clear-cut better team and that they are 15-5 in their last 20 divisional games. Randy Wolf got the best of The Big Unit once this year already, but I think the do go even after this one. The Padres are just 1-4 against a left-handed starter this year.
2-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (+120) at New York Mets
The Braves went to work on the Mets in Atlanta a few weeks ago and I see no reason why it won’t continue. Home cooking will do the Mets good, but they are just 5-16 against a right-handed starter. The Braves’ bats are starting to come on, and Chipper Jones – who is hitting over .440 right now – always destroys the Mets. This is great value on a game that should be -110 vs. -105.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Milwaukee (-150) over Florida
Stop me if you’ve heard this one: the Brewers destroy left-handed pitching. The Brewers are 48-20 at home against a southpaw and will get a crack at red-hot Scott Olsen today. Of all of our picks, this is the one I’m least certain of. But after the Brew Crew dumped one to Jamie Moyer yesterday I think the numbers favor us getting the W against another lefty.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-125) over Pittsburgh
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 9.5 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
1-Unit Play. Take Seattle (-110) over Oakland
GamblersWorld
TIP OF THE DAY
San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
Current Line: -6 Over/Under: 193 Reason: The San Antonio Spurs and the Phoenix Suns will both be gunning for a postseason victory on Friday when they meet at US Airways Center. Oddsmakers currently have the Suns listed as 6-point favorites versus the Spurs, while the game's total is sitting at 193. Tony Parker went for 32 points and seven assists as the Spurs defeated the Suns 102-96 to take a 2-0 lead in their Western Conference quarterfinal series on Tuesday night. San Antonio covered as 3-point home favorites as the game played over the 192-point total set by sportsbooks. Manu Ginobili netted 29 points for the Spurs, who got 18 points and 17 rebounds from Tim Duncan in the win. Amare Stoudemire led Phoenix with 33 points and seven boards, while Steve Nash added 23 points and 10 assists for the Suns. Team records: San Antonio: 56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS Phoenix: 55-27 SU, 40-39-3 ATS San Antonio most recently: When playing on Friday are 8-2 Before playing Phoenix are 6-4 After playing Phoenix are 8-2 After a win are 7-3 Phoenix most recently: When playing on Friday are 7-3 Before playing San Antonio are 5-5 After playing San Antonio are 4-6 After a loss are 6-4 A few trends to consider: The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix San Antonio is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road Phoenix is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio Phoenix is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home Phoenix is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
Michael Cannon
25 Dime –
SUNS
Lay the points with the Suns tonight when they host the Spurs in Game Three of their playoff series.
I expect Phoenix to come out with the same urgency that Washington showed last night in their win over the Cavs.
This is exactly why the Suns got Shaquille O’Neal from the Heat, and I believe the diesel will lead the way for Phoenix tonight.
The Suns had big leads in each of the first two games against the Spurs, but fizzled out in the second half of both. Phoenix should be able to get into a comfortable rhythm in front of the home crowd, and that will allow them to play a complete, 48-minute game tonight.
San Antonio is a deep, veteran team, but they could succumb to the fast-paced Suns here.
With their backs against the wall, take the Suns minus the points as they grab the convincing win and cover.
10 Dime –
RED SOX (With Wakefield as listed pitcher)
Take the Red Sox for the road win tonight over the Rays.
Tim Wakefield gets the nod for the BoSox and it’s hard to ignore the success he’s had against Tampa Bay through the years.
The knuckleballer is 19-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 28 career games against the Rays. If it seems like the Rays haven’t been able to figure out the knuckleball, that’s because it’s true. I don’t care what the discrepancy is between the talents of the two clubs; you don’t post that kind of record against an opponent unless you flat out just have their number.
Matt Garza will start against Boston, and he’s probably losing sleep over facing this lineup. The right-hander has given up eight earned runs in just eight innings so far this year.
Take the Red Sox as they cruise to the road win.
5 Dime –
CUBS (With Dempster as listed pitcher)
Take the Cubs for the road win tonight over the Nationals.
Ryan Dempster gets the nod for the Cubbies and he’s made a seamless transition back to the starting rotation after serving as the closer the last few years.
The right-hander is 3-0 on the year with a 3.00 ERA in four starts. He’s struggled at times with his control, but he has still managed to limit the amount of base runners allowed. Dempster has also had success against the Washington franchise in his career, going 6-0 in 10 games with a 3.40 ERA.
Odalis Perez will start for the Nats and he’s 0-3 on the year despite a 3.38 ERA. The truth is the Nationals don’t have much offense, so whatever Perez allows will be magnified, especially if Dempster is on his game.
Take the Cubs as they grab the road win.
ANGELS (With Santana and Robertson as listed pitchers)
Take the Angels for the road win over the Tigers.
Ervin Santana will start for the Angels and he’s having a nice bounce-back season.
The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA in four starts so far. He’s coming off an eight-inning gem where he allowed just three hits and struck out eight in a win over the Mariners last Saturday.
Nate Robertson will start for the Tigers and I’m not sure what’s going on with him this year, but he’s off to a disastrous start.
The left-hander is 0-2 with a 7.48 ERA in four games.
Take the Angels for the road win as Santana continues his hot start while Robertson continues to get banged up.
JB's Computer Plays
New York Yankees - 120
Chicago Cubs - 125
St. Louis Cardinals - 130
JeffMoney
(MLB) REDSOX -115 (POD)
(MLB) CUBS -120
(MLB) ANGELS -105
(MLB) GIANTS +125
(MLB) YANKS -125