Gamblers world
TIP OF THE DAY
Dallas Stars vs. San Jose Sharks
Prediction: San Jose Sharks
Current Line: -145 Over/Under: 5 Reason: The fans at HP Pavilion will be treated to a playoff game between the Dallas Stars and the San Jose Sharks when they take their seats on Friday. Oddsmakers currently have the Sharks listed as 145-moneyline favorites versus the Stars, while the game's total is sitting at 5. Milan Michalek scored a power play goal to lift the Sharks to a 2-1 win over the Stars on Wednesday and now trail the best-of-seven Western Conference semi-final series 3-1. The Sharks won the game as -160 favorites, while the three goals went UNDER the posted over/under (5). Patrick Marleau scored the other goal for the Sharks shorthanded. Jere Lehtinen scored for the Stars, and Marty Turco made 22 saves in a losing effort. The Stars were +140 underdogs in Game 4. Team records: Dallas: 45-30-7 San Jose: 49-23-10 Dallas most recently: When playing on Friday are 3-7 Before playing Los Angeles are 5-5 After playing San Jose are 7-3 After a loss are 6-4 San Jose most recently: When playing on Friday are 4-6 Before playing Toronto are 3-3-2 After playing Dallas are 5-5 After a win are 5-5 A few trends to consider: Dallas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Jose Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose San Jose is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home San Jose is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games San Jose is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas San Jose is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Nite Owl Sports
Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks
Pick: 3 units Boston Celtics -8
Let's see, Boston won SU and ATS in games one and two at home, then Atlanta did the same in games 3 and 4, and Boston followed suit and did the same in game 5, so tthe home team is now 5-0 SU and ATS in this series-- hey, this is easy, just go with Atlanta to keep this obvious trend going by winning or at least covering as 8 point home dogs in game 6, right? NO, WRONG! The Nite Owl has been capping hoops for > 20 years, and in that time he has seen this game six "revert to the norm" pattern occur too many times over the years not to be acutely aware of it. And in cases where the favored road team in game 6 has won and covered in all three home games of the series, their chances of winning and covering on the road in game 6 are just that much better, regardless of the results in games 3 and 4.
So why does this happen? We have our theories, which we will get into in a moment, but the important thing is that is does happen consistently, and we will give a few recent examples below. But first, our theories about why the road fave that is up 3-2 in the series is a consistently good play, especially in the early rouinds. First, the fact that the road team is favored means that they are clearly the better of the two teams, especially a number 1 seed vs a #8, as we have here. And favored first round teams (especially a number 1 seed vs a #8, as we have here) would rather get their first series over with in as few games as possible, and certainly don't want it to drag out to 7 games. Last night, even the Detroit Pistons, who were in a similarly good situation to Boston's tonite (as a #2 seed vs a #7 seed, playing as a road fave and up 3-2 in the series) wiped the court with the Sixers, winning 100-77 as just 5 point faves. If an inconsistent team like Detroit (which is as much of a collective "head case" as there is in the NBA) can "get down to business" in this game 6 situation, surely the more reliable, more consistent Celtics can do the same vs an Atlanta team which is no better than Philly. The other factor lies more with the "psyche" of the underdog home team which is down 2-3 (Atlanta in this case) and has been whipped decisively in all 3 games on their opponent's court, in that they know they have no chance of winning a game 7 at the same venue where they have already been creamed three times in the past week, so what's the point in busting their tails to win game 6 and qualify for another whipping, in game 7, at that hostile venue? Obviously none of the Atlanta players will publicly admit that, and we can't actually get inside their heads, but we believe that they will actually have such a negative mental approach for this game, which will intensify if Boston jumps on them and gets them down early, as we expect to be the case. OK, enough psycho-analysis, what about some actual recent examples where this game 6 surprise syndrome has actually worked in the NBA playoffs?
OK, in addition to the aforementioned Detroit game 6 blowout of Philly last night, here are two other recent examples, both involving the SA Spurs, a team which now may be past its prime of a few years ago, but which (at least in their recent championship editions) reminds us alot of TY's Celtics, the way they could both "lock down" on defense and have offensive spurts when they needed them. The most recent example of SA succeeding in this game 6 scenario was in their 2005-06 first round playoff series vs the Sacto Kings, in which SA took games 1 and 2 SU and ATS, followed by Sacto doing the same in games 3 and 4 as a home dog, then SA following suit in game 5, culminated by SA romping to a 22 point win in game 6 at Sacto as 3 point faves, down from their -5 price in game 4, as the public was convinced Sacto could "do it again" to SA as a home dog -- NOT. And it was a similar scenario for the Spurs against the Lakers in 2002-03, with SA starting out the series with covering wins in games 1 and 2, losing games 3 and 4 SU and ATS in LA, coming back to win game 5 at home, and then absolutely crushing the "Lake (fake?)show" by 28 points in game 6 in LA, as 5 point road dogs, no less.
So as you can see, the obvious is not always the right way to go, especially when it comes to picking winners in the NBA, which we have been very good all season long TY, winning nearly 60% on our NBA side picks at Top Ten. Hopefully after you see for yourself the thought and thorough analysis we put into our picks and write-ups, you will join our winning team and let us do all the hard work for you, so all you need to do is get our picks, read our write ups, get the line and decide how much you want to bet, and then collect from your "man" after you win.
Mr A's
Cleveland Cavaliers +4
Boston Celtics - 8
Boston at Atlanta Over - 189
Utah Jazz - 7½
Sports Lock
Chicago White Sox (+115) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-135)
The Chicago White Sox continue their road trip in Toronto taking on the Blue Jays. The White Sox are sending their ace Mark Buehrle to the mound. Buehrle has gotten off to a rough start as he currently has a record of 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA. Toronto has struggled against left-handed pitching this year going 1-4. Pitching for the Blue Jays is Shaun Marcum who carries a 2-2 record with a 3.24 ERA. This is the first meeting of these two teams this year. Chicago is looking to put a stop to a two game skit at the hands of the Twins. The Blue Jays are back home after losing 2 of 3 in Boston. Its going to be a battle of the White Sox offense, which ranks second in the league scoring 5.04 runs a game, versus Toronto’s defense which ranks second in the league only surrendering 4.00 runs a game. Surprisingly the Blue Jays actually give up more runs at home, allowing 4.67 a game which is 10th in the league. Toronto will need their offense to come alive as they are currently the third worst team as far as scoring. Look for the Chicago’s bats to come alive as they take this series opener. This is a great opportunity to cash in on a good payout by taking the underdog.
LOCK = Chicago White Sox +115
Brandon Lang
20 Dime - Rockets
10 Dime - Celtics
10 Dime - Marlins
Free Pick - Cards
EZWINNERS MLB
2 STAR: (904) FLORIDA (-$120) over San Diego
(Listing Hendrickson and Germano)
(Risking $240 to win $200)
2 STAR: (915) NY METS (+$107) over Arizona
(Listing Maine only)
(Risking $200 to win $214)
2 STAR: (919) SEATTLE (+$131) over NY Yankees
(Listing Bedard only)
(Risking $200 to win $262)
1 STAR: (917) TAMPA BAY (+$163) over Boston
(Listing Jackson only)
(Risking $100 to win $163)
1 STAR: (921) CHICAGO (+$120) over Toronto
(Listing Buehrle only)
(Risking $100 to win $120)
JUST WONDERING IF ANYONE HAVE SEEN CALFORNIA SPORTS OR ACCUPICKS 4 FRI.ALSO TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN THANK U 4 ALL THE POSTS U DO THANKU RAZORAZE......
John Ryan
Game: Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz
Prediction: under
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play UNDER Houston/Utah – AiS shows a 79% probability that 180 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 126-67 and has made 52.3 units since 2002. Play under with all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points that is a good 3PT shooting team hitting >=36.5% and is now facing an average 3PT shooting team hitting 33-36.5% and in a game involving two good ball handling teams committing =23 assists/game this season. Utah is 17-8 UNDER (+8.2 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game in the 2nd half of the season this season; 24-10 UNDER (+13.0 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams attempting <=24 free throws/game this season.
Game: Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Atlanta – AiS projects an 81% probability that Atlanta will lose this game by 8 or fewer points. Boston is just 51-76 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996. Atlanta is 78-52 ATS in home games revenging a road loss versus opponent of 10 points or more since 1996. Supporting this graded play is a money line system that has gone 146-95 and has made 51.8 units for 61% since 1996. So yes, adding a 1.5* amount on the money line is a suitable optional wager.
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Washington Wizards
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on the Wizards – AiS shows an 80% probability that the Wizards will win this game by 5 or more points. AiS also shows an 88% probability that Cleveland will shoot not higher than 47% from the field and 38% from 3-point territory. The busy playoff schedule also places Washington into a strong role. Note that Washington is 18-7 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. Supporting this graded play is a money line system that has gone 86-21 and has made 43.6 units for 80% since 2002. Play against a road teams versus the money line after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games and is a marginal winning team sporting a winning percentage of 51% to 60% playing a winning team.
JeffMoney
Bluejays Un 8.5, -105 (pod)
Tigers -140
Marlins -125
Celtics -8
Frank Rosenthal
Nba Playoffs *
516 Hawks+8.5 Sb
Umder 189.5 Sb
518 Wizards-3.5 Sb
Over 187 Sb
520 Jazz-7 Sb
Over 180 Sb
Major League Baseball
904 Fish-120 Sb
905 Pirates Under 9.5 Sb
910 Astros Under 9 Sb+
914 Rockies+105 Sb
915 Nym+110 Sb
920 Yanks-140 Sb
925 Tigers Over 9.5 Sb+
930 A's-140 Sb+
Rocketman Sports
Seattle @ NY Yankees
Play On: 3* NY Yankees -140 (Bedard/Wang) Listed
Seattle is scoring only 4.4 runs per game overall this year, 4.0 runs per game on the road this year and 4.0 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Seattle bullpen has a 5.23 ERA overall this year and a 5.17 ERA on the road this year. NY Yankees bullpen has a 3.14 ERA at home this year. Wang is 5-0 with a 3.23 ERA overall this season. Wang is 6-0 with a 2.51 ERA overall vs Seattle since 1997. We'll play the NY Yankees for 3 units tonight!
TONY MATTHEWS
NBA - 20 Stars: Atlanta Hawks +8.5
Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #930 Oakland (-140) over Texas (10 p.m., Friday, May 2)
1-Unit Play. Take #930 Oakland (-1.5, +160) over Texas (10 p.m., Friday, May 2)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
I’m sorry, but I’m not buying Vince Padilla’s resurgence. He threw 121 pitches in a complete game on Sunday and I don’t think he’s going to be nearly as sharp against the A’s today. He has a career ERA of 7.11 in four starts in Oakland and is 3-8 following a quality start in his last appearance. The Rangers are 17-36 in their last 53 road games and are just 3-8 in divisional affairs. Their bullpen is a disaster and I think Oakland’s offense will stay hot after their big performance on Thursday. Joe Blanton is 6-2 in his career against the Rangers and I really think that he’s thrown better than his numbers. He’s just faced some killer lineups.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #910 Houston (-135) over Milwaukee (8 p.m., Friday, May 2)
Over the past three years the Astros are 63-38 in all of Roy Oswalt's starts and he is 63-20 at home in his career. The Astros are 5-2 in Oswalt’s last seven starts against the Brewers and 6-1 in his last seven home starts against the Brew Crew. Houston is 22-4 with Oswalt at home against a team with a winning record and 44-15 in his last 69 home starts overall. Milwaukee is coming off a very emotional series in Chicago and could be primed for a letdown against a Houston team that had a day off and has been playing better over the last two weeks.
1-Unit Play. Take #906 Washington (-125) over Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m., Friday, May 2)
The Pirates just continue to struggle against left-handed starters. They are 18-39 on the road against southpaws and are 1-10 in their last 11 games against lefties. John Lannan has been sharp in the early part of this season and should be able to handle the Pirates. Pittsburgh is using a spot starter, and if Phil Dumatrait can’t make it past the fourth or fifth inning then the Pirates bullpen and it’s 7.00 road ERA will be hung out to dry. The Nationals are 16-6 in their last 22 against the N.L. Central and are 18-6 against the Pirates in Washington. They’ve won four straight and have some steam here, so I look for the Nats to keep it rolling.
1-Unit Play. Take #913 Los Angeles Dodgers (-110) over Colorado (9 p.m., Friday, May 2)
I do think that the Rockies could jump up and bite here, but I’ve seen the Dodgers get hot like this before and it’s better to ride the way than try to bet against a streak. Plus, there are two big reasons why the Dodgers are a must play. First, they are hitting .321 against southpaws – tops in MLB – and they have won four straight against a lefty starter. Second, Brad Penny is 13-2 in his career against the Rockies and the Dodgers have won 13 of his last 16 starts against them. Francis is a solid home starter and a great home dog, generally, but he has gotten hammered (18 hits and nine runs in 13 innings) at Coors this year. I think the misery continues for the Rockies here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #918 Boston (-165) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Friday, May 2)
1-Unit Play. Take #918 Boston (-1.5, +120) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Friday, May 2)
Revenge. Tampa Bay swept the Red Sox in Tampa last week and now I think the tables will be turned a bit. Edwin Jackson was outstanding against the Sox last weekend. But he faced a lineup that didn’t have Big Papi in it. Also, Jackson is 3-15 in his next start after throwing 100 pitches. This is also the second time in less than a week that the Red Sox are going to get a crack at Edwin and I think they’ll be all over him.
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.0 Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (8 p.m., Friday, May 2)
2-Unit Play. Take #921 Chicago White Sox (+125) over Toronto (7 p.m., Friday, May 2)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #907 Cincinnati (+125) over Atlanta (7:30 p.m., Friday, May 2)
Underdog systems, letdown systems, left-handed pitching trends, and revenge systems: we have a lot going on today. I could have simply picked four games and let it ride, but I'm going to trust my systems here and play all the games that graded out properly. And we're getting all of this action for under 20 Units. I could have played four games for 4 Units apiece and actually had more exposer than we have here, so it's really not as bad as it seems! These are the series' that I've targeted (along with one more that I'll be on big tomorrow) and I'm looking for a profitable weekend to start May.
JUST WONDERING IF ANYONE HAVE SEEN CALFORNIA SPORTS OR ACCUPICKS 4 FRI.ALSO TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN THANK U 4 ALL THE POSTS U DO THANKU RAZORAZE......
If I see it I will post it 😉
Kelso
50* Washington Wizards