VEGAS EXPERTS TIP OF THE DAY
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
We look for the Orioles to return to their losing ways tonight behind Steve Trachsel, who owns a terrible 4-20 team start record in the underdog role, including 1-13 on the road. He'll be opposed by the Royals' Gil Meche, who is coming off a seven-inning outing where he allowed no runs and four hits against Cleveland. Baltimore has lost Trachsel's last three starts and his ERA is approaching 10.00.
Play on: Kansas City
John Fina
Selection: Colorado/San Diego Under 6.5
Today we expect a low-scoring game as the Colorado Rockies do battle with the San Diego Padres. One reason why we expect a low-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound solid starting pitchers. This says it all... The Colorado Rockies Starting Pitcher (Aaron Cook) has a 2.40 ERA this season, while San Diego Padres Starting Pitcher (Jake Peavy) has a 2.22 ERA this season. In addition, these teams have a history of playing low-scoring games when they meet. In fact, the Under is 6-3 in the last 9 meetings between these teams. We expect to see another low-scoring game today! Take the Colorado Rockies/San Diego Padres Under 6.5
Karl Garrett
Tonight, staying in the Steel-Town, but going with the visitor in this one, as Atlanta comes in on their best run of the young season having won 6 straight games.
Tom Glavine was hit hard his last time out, but did work 5 innings of 1-run ball against Pittsburgh to start the year in a no decision. Glavine is 2-0 over his last 4 starts against the Pirates, and should get some run support tonight from his mates.
Ian Snell has allowed 12 earned runs over his last 16 innings of work for an 0-1 mark, and Snell's last 5 starts against the Braves show a 1-2 mark with 18 runs allowed in 31 innings of work.
Pittsburgh has won their last 3, but the value tonight lies with the streaking Bravos.
Atlanta to make it 7 straight wins.
2* ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
We get a little plus money and a dominating pitcher in Roy Halladay, there's no way we're not taking the Blue Jays in this matchup.
It doesn't matter how much Toronto has struggled in Cleveland, Halladay (3-4, 3.00 ERA) will get the job done tonight. He's allowed just one earned run in each of his last two starts, suffering a tough 1-0 loss in Boston and then beating the White Sox 4-3.
He's been very tough on the Indians since 1999, and the Blue Jays are 7-2 when he's toed the rubber against the Tribe. Last time he went to Cleveland and pitched he allowed one run on five hits in 7.2 innings of a 5-2 win.
C.C. Sabathia (1-5, 7.51) goes for Cleveland and he has really struggled at home for the Tribe, going 0-4, 9.33 ERA. He got drilled by the Royals on Saturday when he allowed four runs on 10 hits in 6.1 innings of a 4-2 loss.
The Blue Jays have won six of their last eight as they come into Cleveland and with Halladay on the hill, we've got no worries with this one. Play Toronto.
4* TORONTO
DCI
NBA
Western Conference Semifinals
Game 3, best-of-7
UTAH 109, L.A. Lakers 108
NHL
Eastern Conference Finals
Game 1, best-of-7
PITTSBURGH 3, Philadelphia 2
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tonight we like the OVER in the Lakers-Jazz game. After an UNDER in Game One, these teams put up some points in Game Two for the easy OVER.
More of the same tonight, as Utah is on a 21-7 OVER run their last 28 versus the Pacific Division. Not only that, but the OVER between the teams is currently on an 11-5 run the last 16 times these teams have met.
Throw in the fact the Jazz are on an 8-3 OVER tear when they are installed as the favorite, and we feel you are going to see another game in which both teams will be cracking the century mark.
Los Angeles has cracked the 100-point mark in their last 16 games, and for Utah to win this game they must obviously keep pace with the high-scoring Lakers so watch that Energy Solutions scoreboard light-up like a pinball machine in Game Three from Salt Lake City.
Play the OVER.
2* OVER
Tony Mathews
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Indians
Selection: Toronto/Cleveland Under 7.5
Explanation: We expect a low-scoring game as the Toronto Blue Jays face-off against the Cleveland Indians in Friday's MLB contest.
The Toronto Blue Jays will use starting pitcher Roy Halladay. Roy Halladay has been pitching well as of late. In fact, Roy Halladay has a 2.62 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Roy Halladay pitching another solid game today.
The Cleveland Indians will use starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia. C.C. Sabathia has also been pitching well as of late. This is shown by C.C. Sabathia's 2.21 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see C.C. Sabathia pitching another solid game today.
The Under is 7-2 in the Cleveland Indians last 9 home games. The Under is also 6-2 in the Cleveland Indians last 8 games as a favorite.
Take the Toronto Blue Jays/Cleveland Indians Under 7.5
Jack Clayton
Twins
HotLocksports
Philadelphia
Global Sports Picks
OAKLAND
MadduxSports
San Diego -148
Computer Sports
Padres
Scott Spreitzer
Braves
Cappers Access
Lakers
DBacks
Totals4u
Astros/ Dodgers Under
Glen Mcgrew
Cardinals
Mike Wynn
Phillies
Bob Donahue
Astros
Huddle Up Sports
Phillies/ Giants Over
Paul Leiner
10* Yankees +115
SCOUT
Cleveland -120
Insider Sports Report
Atlanta/Pittsburgh OVER 9
THE VEGAS STEAMLINE
CHICAGO W. SOX
EASY MONEY
BOSTON -120
BIG TIME SPORTS
MARLINS / NATIONALS OVER 9.5
ARMVIN SPORTS
OAKLAND ATHLETICS -106
JEFF BENTON
BOSTON RED SOX
RAZOR SHARP
MILWAUKEE -115
ARTHUR RALPH
SD PADRES
MIGHTY QUINN
Lakers
COMPUTER SPORTS
SAN DIEGO PADRES -130
PLATINUM PLAYS
MINNESOTA TWINS +110
Redzone Sports
White Sox
NICK JONES
San Diego Padres
Frank Patron
Diamondbacks +105
Global Handicapping
Lakers
LT Profits
Baltimore Orioles +130
Now we readily admit that the Kansas City Royals have the starting pitching advantage over the Baltimore Orioles tonight with Gil Meche facing Steve Trachsel, but the Orioles have the edge in enough other areas that we feel they are an overlay at this price.
The Orioles qualify as a play under our Bullpen System, which is 16-11, +5.11 units so far this season. Also, Baltimore has simply dominated the head-to-head series between these clubs, going an unbelievable 40-12 in the last 52 meetings. Even Trachsel has had success vs. Kansas City, allowing just two runs and eight hits in 16 innings over two starts last season, including a Complete Game five-hitter here in this stadium the last time he faced them.
Now Meche is supposed to be the Royals ace, and he did allow just four hits in seven scoreless innings vs. the Cleveland Indians in his last start. However, he has also had a couple of horrid outings this season that have inflated his ERA to 5.98 and his WHIP to 1.52. Furthermore, he is 0-3 with a whopping 9.00 ERA and 1.81 WHIP here in his own stadium.
We look for the Orioles to score some runs here as Meche’s home struggles continue, and for the Baltimore bullpen, which ranks eighth in the Major League with a 3.41 ERA, to hold the lead for the upset win.
Pick: Orioles +130
Arizona Diamondbacks +110
It is not often that you can get Danny Haren at plus odds, so the Arizona Diamondbacks are virtually an automatic play when they visit the Chicago Cubs this afternoon.
Haren is enjoying his first season in Arizona, as he is 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA and a very impressive 0.99 WHIP in 43.1 innings of work. He has recorded six Quality Starts in seven outings, allowing two runs or less in four of those appearances. As if that were not enough to like Arizona as a dog in this spot, consider also that they qualify as a Bullpen System play, as they have the best bullpen ERA in the Major Leagues at 2.70.
Now Ted Lilly has reeled off three consecutive Quality Start for the Cubs after a poor start. However, he did not pitch well the last time he faced the Diamondbacks in the playoffs last year, when he allowed six runs and 11 baserunners while lasting just 3.1 innings, and he is facing a Snakes lineup that has hit southpaw well (.287) this year.
Arizona is 7-3 the last 10 times these clubs have met in Chicago, and we look for the D-Backs to make it 8-3 this afternoon.
Pick: Diamondbacks +110
Lenny Del Genio
Arizona Diamondbacks
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates -110
The Braves are a terrible 4-11 on the road this season. We'll fade them on the road here against Snell and the Pirates tonight. The Braves are 5-16 in their last 21 road games vs. a right-handed starter, 0-4 in their last 4 road games, and 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Braves are 1-6 in Glavine's last 7 starts, 0-5 in Glavine's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series, and 0-4 in Glavine's last 4 road starts. The Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 home games, 7-1 in their last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, and 12-3 in their last 15 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Pirates are 14-3 in Snell's last 17 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in Snell's last 4 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Take the Pirates at home tonight.
MONEY LOCK OF THE DAY
JUNIOR'S PICK
KANSAS CITY ROYALS -140
Big advantage on the mound tonight with Meche vs Trachsel. Meche has been solid his last two starts throwing just over 13 innings while allowing 3 earned runs. Meche is a dreadful 0-3 at home this season but has only received 3 runs of support over those 3 starts. This is a perfect chance for the Royals to help their ace out facing Steve Trachsel. Trachsel is 1-4 with a 7.42 ERA while walking 19 batters over his 6 starts. Trachsel hasn't seen the 4th inning in his last two starts and only has seen the 7th inning twice this season. Alex Gordan is having a super sophmore season and has been playing like the leader they need him to be. Take the Royals tonight at home!
David Malinsky
St. Louis @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Over
It was not quite like waking up on Christmas morning, but the market action on this one had us waking up to something we enjoyed unwrapping - the early 9.5’s have not only gone to 9, but also to where we can play this Over at low juice. We can thank the pitching forms for that, and their inability to truly measure Todd Wellemeyer and Manny Parra. So let’s get to work.
Wellemeyer sports what appears to be a solid 3-1/4.07, but we have little faith in his ability to maintain that level. We are not going out on a limb with that - the Cubs, Marlins and Royals made similar judgment calls over the past three years. We already see signs of him wearing down in his conversion to a starters role, with a 5.29 ERA over his last three starts that was capped by Sunday’s laborious five inning vs. the Cubs, when he needed 95 pitches to merely get that far. The fact that he has not fallen off the table yet means that we are in the right place at the right time (certianly in terms of tonight’s line value).
Meanwhile with Manny Parra it is a case of bucking him while we still can. While a 1-2/5.86 is uninspiring, he has not even been that good, but has benefitted by some good fortune - of the 55 runners that he has put on base in 27.2 innings, only 18 came around to score. That is an extreme rate, particularly for a guy that is nothing special anyway, and while left-handers can often have an early advantage on opponents getting their first look, he does not even have that going for him here - this will already be the third go-round vs. the Cardinals, who have scored six runs on 14 hits and seven walks over nine innings (note the high strand rate in those games as well). And behind Parra the options are not good for Ned Yost, who is still trying to find some bullpen combinations that can work.
SportsKingz
MLB
ARIZONA -105
SAN DIEGO -150
DODGERS R/L -1.5 +110
L.A. ANGELS +140
Gavozzi Baseball
2% St louis Cards
2% Oakland A's