LARRY NESS
Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Boston Red Sox
REASON FOR PICK: The defending champs lead the AL East at 23-14, a record which is also good enough to be the best in the AL, by a half-game over the Angels. However, it's hardly been "smooth sailing" for Boston. The team won 10 of 11 from April 12 through the 22nd (averaging 6.9 RPG) but the Boston bats then went silent. The team dropped five in a row (beginning on April 23), scoring a total of just 14 runs. Boston won two in a row to end its slump (1-0 and 2-1) but the bats remained quiet, losing 3-0 to end that brief two-game winning streak. However, Boston has won six of its last seven entering this weekend series with the Twins and scoring has not been a problem, as the Red Sox have averaged 7.3 RPG their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Twins enter this game 17-16, but it's good enough to lead the mediocre AL Central. The Red Sox haven't had much luck in Minnesota this decade, as before taking two of three from the Twins in Minneapolis last May, the Red Sox hadn't won a series at the Metrodome since 2000, losing 13 of their previous 17 games. Will it be "more of the same," tonight? I think not. Boston lefty Jon Lester is coming off back-to-back terrific starts, allowing just one ER and five hits in 14 innings, striking out 11. The Twins struggled at home vs lefties last year (9-16) and in limited action vs lefties this year, Minnesota is only 3-4 (2-2 at home). Boof Bonser will start for the Twins and the young right-hander hasn't looked any better this year than he has in his first two big league seasons. He's gone 15-18 with a 4.77 ERA the last two years with the Twins (team is 24-25 in his starts) and is 2-4 with a 4.29 ERA in seven starts this year. The Red Sox just dominated right-handed starters last year with a 71-42 mark, which included a 32-11 mark on the road. The Boston bats are hot and with Lester pitching well, I look for an easy Boston win.
GamblersWorld.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz
Prediction: Utah Jazz
Current Line: -3 Over/Under: 214
Reason: The Los Angeles Lakers and the Utah Jazz will both be gunning for a playoff victory on Friday night when they meet at EnergySolutions Arena. Oddsmakers currently have the Jazz listed as 3-point favorites versus the Lakers, while the game's total is sitting at 214. Kobe Bryant continued his playoff prowess with a game-high 34 points to lead the Lakers in a 120-110 win over the Jazz in Game 2 of this second-round Western Conference series on Wednesday. The Lakers covered the 7-point spread at Staples Center, while the combined score made it OVER the posted total of 211. Bryant shot 11-for-18 from the field with eight rebounds and six assists. Derek Fisher chipped in with 22 points in the win. Deron Williams led the Jazz with 25 points and 10 assists in the loss. Team records: Los Angeles: 57-25 SU, 47-34-1 ATS Utah: 54-28 SU, 46-36 ATS Los Angeles most recently: When playing on Friday are 5-5 Before playing Utah are 8-2 After playing Utah are 5-5 After a win are 9-1 Utah most recently: When playing on Friday are 4-6 Before playing LA Lakers are 8-2 After playing LA Lakers are 5-5 After a loss are 9-1 A few trends to consider: LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games LA Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games LA Lakers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games on the road LA Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road Utah is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home Utah is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home The total has gone OVER in 7 of Utah's last 10 games at home The total has gone OVER in 11 of Utah's last 16 games when playing LA Lakers
IndianCowboy
Game: Florida Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Pick: 3 units Under 9.5
When making total selections, the principle basis of my selections if pitchers who are on bounce-backs but of course, who are quality pitchers that have the ability to make such bounce-backs, in other words, taking rookies and unproven pitchers to make bounce-backs are not advised as this is the reason for example why I took the under in the Rockes/Cardinals game the other night and it cashed with ease with Francis and Wainwright on the mound as a total of 3 runs were scored until the 8th inning. Similar to that both of these pitchers have positive trends working in their favor for an under today. Keep in mind that Nolasco is a much better pitcher than his 7.46 ERA shows, the last time he gave up a double-digit ERA in a contest, the final score was a 2-3 ballgame against Pittsburgh and he is on a similar bounce-back today as he was roughed up for a 11.59 ERA at home against San Diego, so look for him to come back strong as he did against the Brewers on the road earlier this season when he had below a 2 ERA on that game cashing as a +125 dog. Do the Marlins win? Frankly, it's a tossup given how well Redding has pitched this year and he has a bit of a revenge against the Nationals for a 6 ERA he gave up against them last time out, although he did get the win in that game, Redding has pitched in 4 of 5 unders when at home when facing a total similar to this, the under is 7-1 when the Marlins are a dog on the road by this margin and the under is 16-4-2 in Redding's last 22 starts overall.
BRANDON LANG
15 Dime - Phillies (Run Line)
5 Dime - Rockies
5 Dime - Jazz
Michael Cannon
15 Dime –
LAKERS
Take the points with the Lakers tonight when they travel to Utah for Game 3.
Believe me, I looked for every possible angle to back the Jazz tonight and couldn’t find a single one.
I know they’re at home where they enjoy a big advantage, but looking at their recent home games didn’t give me any reason to think they’re going to cover this number against the Lakers.
Hell, the only home game they looked impressive in was the Game 6 series clincher over the Rockets. Prior to that, Houston gained a split with the Jazz and very easily could have pulled off the sweep.
Now the Jazz have to regroup against a Lakers team that is 8-0 SUATS in their last eight.
Los Angeles has also beaten Utah in seven of the last eight meetings, including two of three at EnergySolutions Arena.
The Lakers have rolled so far in this series because of the way they are clogging the lane and forcing Carlos Boozer to shoot from the outside.
Boozer has struggled and is just 9-for-24 from the floor in the series.
The Lakers chemistry is unreal right now and I’m not going to go against that right now.
Take the Lakers plus the points as they stay within the number.
5 Dime –
NATIONALS (With Redding as listed pitcher)
Take the Nationals for the home win tonight over the Marlins.
Tim Redding will start for the Nationals and I think he’s really found a home in Washington.
The right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA in seven starts this year. He’s also done well against Florida, going 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA in seven career games.
The Marlins will counter with Ricky Nolasco, who is just 1-3 with a 6.10 ERA this year.
Washington has played better recently, especially at home, and Redding gives them a big advantage on the mound.
Take the Nationals as they grab the home win.
ANGELS (With Garland as listed pitcher)
Take the Angels as the road dog for the win over Tampa Bay.
Jon Garland starts for the Angels and he’s coming off a great start in which he went eight innings, allowing only one run for the win. The right-hander is 4-3 on the year with a 5.08 ERA, but has had great success against Tampa in his career, going 5-1 with a 3.43 ERA in nine games.
The Rays will counter with James Shields and he’s coming off a loss in which he lasted only 3 2-3 innings and gave up seven runs.
The Rays played 13 innings last night in Toronto and had to fly back to Tampa immediately after, so they may be a little sluggish tonight.
Take the Angels at the plus return for the win.
Selective Sport Systems
Orioles/Royals Over 8.5
PlusLineSports
Oakland -1.5
Winning Points Online
NBA
**PREFERRED
Utah* over LA Lakers by 11
The Lakers have attempted 46 and 43 free throws in the first two games as Utah has been practicing for their first two home games of the series, when they can be as physical without being whistled as frequently or so the well-orchestrated NBA normally goes with its desperate 0-2 home teams
UTAH 109-98
MLB
OAKLAND (G.Smith) -115 over TEXAS (Feldman)
The Rangers racked up three straight wins at Seattle in a four game series that ended late last night. But now it's back to Arlington to take on a well rested Oakland team that has dominated righty pitching, averaging a solid 5.6 runs per game in that situation, and compiling a 8-1 (+$1005) record vs. righties in road games. Greg Smith has looked very sharp in his six starts (+$500, 2.54 ERA), so he should dispatch a Texas team that is only 2-6 (-$390) vs. southpaws, averaging a mere 2.9 runs per game in those contests. Texas's hot streak ends tonight, against a far more formidable Oakland team.
Ultra
**PREFERRED
LA Angels / Tampa Bay OVER 8.5
Who signed off on getting John Garland and paying him $12 million this season? The guy's current WHIP is 1.51 -- higher than good (and that's bad) -- and his lifetime BAA is .271. This season, opponents are hitting .309 against him. He has a 13-10 BB-K Ratio after 7 starts. Seven starts, and only 10 strikeouts? The ball will be in play a lot! Angels key hitters Guerrero and Figgins are hitting .500 and .455 lifetime against Rays' starter Shields.
The Atlanta-Pittsburgh game got a long, hard look for the Over with Tom Glavine seriously needing to be driven out of baseball by an endless, merciless wave of hard hits very, very soon, but it might rain in Pittsburgh and that bum might get a break -- either a rainout, or anything within six inches of the plate as a strike. So we'll pass on that one.
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
3000 LARGE *EARLY* BASEBALL WINNER
Arizona w/Heren +100
VEGAS-RUNNER
1* ARI - CHC UNDER 8
Scott Spreitzer
KO Jazz
Jim Feist
Personal Best Jazz
5* Lakers over
Dave Cokin
Under the Hat
Lakers
Brandon Lovell
10* Cubs +100
10* Padres -140
10* Jazz -4.5
Erin Rynning
MLB Chicago Cubs Under 8 +100
Bob Akmens
4* CUBS / DIAMONDBACKS OVER 8
JB
3* Jazz
Scott Rickenbach
Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers
NHL 1* (regular play) Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh @ 7:35 ET – With the injury to defenseman Kimmo Timonen of the Flyers, Philadelphia’s line value in this match-up has simply gone from good to great. Yes, the loss of Timonen is bad news for how it could impact the Flyers throughout this series. However, the NHL is no different than other team sports in that, the first game after a key player goes down, there is often a “rally the troops” type of effort that ends up paying off big dividends for that team. It is the injured team that is offered, and often also “cashes in”, the additional line value! One of the strengths for the Flyers coming into this series is their depth and this includes their defensive depth. This is now a key with Timonen hurt and we expect the Flyers blue-liners to fill in just fine in his absence in Game One.
As good as Philly has played in this postseason there is still a ton of doubt about this team. We’re not sure what it will take to see more Flyers believers but the way they battled adversity to win Game 7 in Washington should have been a big sign to everyone of what was going to come from this team. For the Flyers to win four straight versus Montreal, after suffering a very tough loss in Game One, says a lot about the strength of this team. Note that those are the same Canadiens against whom the Penguins won just twice in four games. Marc-Andre Fleury struggled in goal against the Habs and, comparatively, we are simply showing you why Philly deserves more respect than they are being given.
In terms of how these teams match-up, Philadelphia took five of the eight meetings with Pittsburgh in the regular season. They are absolutely confident heading into this series and Martin Biron, the Flyers netminder, has also seen his confidence level grow by leaps and bounds as he’s helped Philly to win 8 of their last 11 games in this postseason. This includes a stellar 4-2 mark in their last six road games in these playoffs and note that one of those two losses came in overtime! The Flyers have allowed only about 2.6 goals per game in their last 11 games and Biron has been sharp when it’s counted the most! This is a huge rivalry and, with these teams being very familiar with each other, this is simply far too high of a price for Pittsburgh. The Pens got the benefit of a struggling Senators team to open up the postseason and then they defeated a Rangers team in a series that was much tighter than the 4-1 series result would lead you to believe. The Pens are good but they’re overrated here and the Flyers can absolutely pull off the upset for a great return price in Game One. Play Philadelphia on the money line as a regular selection.