Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on San Diego Padres -137
I will ride the best starter in the league to a nice home victory tonight over the Colorado Rockies. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, Peavy (4-1, 2.22) has carried his dominance into 2008. The 26-year-old righthander surrendered just two runs and five hits in 5 2/3 innings en route to a 7-2 victory over the Florida Marlins on Saturday. San Diego is 11-2 (+9.9 Units) against the money line after 4 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Padres turn to their Ace in Jake Peavy to get out of this little slump tonight. Peavy went 8 strong innings, allowing just 4 hits and zero runs in his only start against the Rockies this season. Cash in with San Diego as the favorite.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Milwaukee Brewers -115
Milwaukee has been in a big funk lately, but a return trip to their home field should spark this team to get the Brewers back on track. It also comes against one of their biggest rivals in St. Louis, so you know the Brewers will be up for the task. The Brewers return home following a 9-game road trip where they lost seven of the nine games. This team is much too talented to stay in a rut. Manny Parra has held the Cardinals to 3 earned runs or less in his 3 career starts against St. Louis dating back to last season. St. Louis is 14-32 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals have lost their momentum after Jason Isringhausen blew another save just a few nights back. Look for their woes to continue in Milwaukee, while the Brewers get back on track tonight. Take Milwaukee on the Money Line.
Tom Freese
Chicago at Seattle
Seattle starter Carlos Silva is 5-11 in 16 career team starts vs. the White Sox with an ERA of 5.76. The Mariners are 6-20 vs. a team that allowed 2 or less runs in their last game and they are 0-7 vs. a team that scored 5 or more runs in their last game. Chicago is 4-1 the last 5 road starts made by Jose Contreras and they are 9-4 when he faces AL West foes. The White Sox 10-3 vs. teams with a win percentage of under 40%.
PLAY ON CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Ferringo
2.5-Unit Play. Take Boston (-125) over Minnesota
All John Lester does is win when he pitches. That's it. The Red Sox aren't a great turf team, but they are 16-5 in Lester's last 21 starts and 14-3 in his starts on regular rest. The Twins have been playing brilliantly lately, but they still struggle just a bit with lefties and are just 2-8 at home against left-handed starters. This play comes down to one basic thing: Boof. Bonser is a very shaky arm on the hill and the Red Sox have been swinging the sticks well. I think Boof gets biffed today and the Red Sox get the first in this series. However, Minnesota is getting one in this series and could even steal it if the Sox aren't careful.
2-Unit Play. Take Arizona (+105) over Chicago Cubs
This is my Adrenaline Play. I know the D-Backs are just coming off an emotional win/series over the Phillies and are coming off a tight home stand. I know they're headed east to face a team that had a day off, is desperate for a win, and is great at home. But I think the D-Backs win this one on adrenaline before their bubble bursts over the weekend. The N.L. West has owned the Central this year and Arizona is 44-21 in the last 65 in this series and 7-3 in their last 10 in Chicago. They are 18-6 on the road against lefties and I think they have the better hurler going today in Haren vs. Lilly. All-in-all, this play has a lot going for it and is worth the price.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Colorado (+135) over San Diego
Both clubs are a mess, and it's almost a shame that they're playing each other this weekend because I'd love to keep fading both. But right now the Rockies are at least hitting the ball and that makes all the difference. They're hitting 40 points higher over the last week and if the Dads couldn't get to some of the weak arms they saw in Florida and Atlanta, well, there's not much to say for them. The Rockies have won Aaron Cook's last six starts, are 6-2 when he starts against the Padres, and are 5-1 against Jake Peavy.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (+100) over Pittsburgh
Ah, the Braves on the road. It's been dicey, I know. But part of their road struggles have had to do with them playing in Washington, where they just don't every do well. The Braves, collectively, have been hitting nearly .320 over the last week. They're pounding the ball and are playing in tight PNC today. They aren't getting swept out of Pittisburgh, so I'm willing to tail them this weekend and find a win. It should be tonight. Pittsburgh is still (barely) a blind fade against lefties (4-10 in their L14) and although Ian Snell is tight at home I think Atlanta keeps the momentum rolling.
1-Unit Play. Take Oakland (-110) over Texas
I absolutely loathe betting on the A's. Whenever I bet on them they look feeble and helpless. Whenever I bet against them it's death by 1,000 paper cuts. But I'm tossing out this Feeler Play today because I think that Oakland's lefties - Greg Smith and Dana Eveland - are really throwing well right now and Texas is subpar (.245) against lefties. Further, the Rangers had a long night of travel from Seattle and are coming off an emotional game (bench clearing brawl) and a solid road trip. I'm dangling this one for a Letdown, and hoping that the Rangers shouldn't have been my Adrenaline Play!
2.5-Unit Play. Take Detroit (-135) over New York Yankees
Let me be the first to welcome Kei Igawa back to the Bigs. Think Hideki Irabu only worse. The Tigers have won five straight over the Yankees and have taken six of the last seven meetings in Motown. Detroit hits left-handers much better than the Yankees do and Kenny Rogers always seems to have a little extra something at home. The Tigers are 20-7 in his last 27 home starts and 14-5 with him as a home favorite. New York has dumped five of six to A.L. Central teams, neither of which was playing that well at the time. Detroit strikes first in this weekend series.
2-Unit Play. Take New York Mets (-150) over Cincinnati
The Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 series openers and are just 7-15 in Matt Belisles last 22 road starts. The Mets just completed a West Coast swing in which they faced the likes of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Brad Penny. I dont think theyre going to be too scared of Belisle, who is 3-12 as an underdog and 1-10 against a team with a winning record. The Mets are 42-18 following an off day and I think that Mike Pelfrey is going to do enough tonight to get a win in a high-scoring game. He is still a pinata, but he's looked a little sharper in this first month. I am worried because the Reds are going to get one in this series. But they haven't played great in New York in the recent past and are a little shaky at the moment.
Bob Akmens
4* MLB: METS / REDS OVER 9.5
4* MLB: KC / BALTIMORE UNDER 9.0
4* MLB BOSTON -120 (Lester vs Bonser)
4* MLB: DODGERS / ASTROS OVER 9.0
3* AFL: TAMPA BAY / NEW ORLEANS OVER 107
3* AFL: SAN JOSE / ARIZONA UNDER 110
3* NHL: PITTSBURGH -175
3* NBA: JAZZ / LAKERS UNDER 215.5
Insiders Sports Network Guaranteed Selections
INSIDERS NETWORK NHL PLAYOFF TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR
OVER 5.5 Philadelphia and Pittsburgh
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Lakers +5 over Jazz
Simply put the Lakers are a better team. Utah had a great home record this year, but the Lakers were one of the four teams to win in Salt Lake City. This is one of those games that people jump on Utah because the home teams have been winning and it looks to easy to take LA. I would not be shocked if the Jazz win, but fail to cover this spread. This is going to be a close game. Look for Kobe to have a shot to win it at the buzzer.
Major League Baseball
Padres -140 over Rockies
Peavy/Cook
Savannah Sports
2 Units on St Louis +109
2 Units on San Diego -142
BETTORSWORLD
CARDINALS +110
YANKEES +128
BLUE JAYS +109
CHISOX +105
EZWINNERS EVENING MLB
1 STAR: (954) PITTSBURGH (-1.5)(+$175) over Texas
(Listing Snell and Glavine)
(Risking $100 to win $175)
1 STAR: (958) WASHINGTON (-1.5)(+$155) over Florida
(Listing Redding and Nolasco)
(Risking $100 to win $155)
1 STAR: (969) TORONTO (+$109) over Cleveland
(Listing Halliday only)
(Risking $100 to win $109)
1 STAR: (975) BALTIMORE (+$144) over Kansas City
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $144)
1 STAR: (965) HOUSTON (+$174) over LA Dodgers
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $174)
NBA
1 STAR: (505) LA LAKERS (+5) over Utah
(Risking $110 to win $100)
ETHAN LAW
COL: RHP Aaron Cook (5-1, 2.40 ERA) at SD: RHP Jake Peavy (4-1, 2.22 ERA)
This is one of many lines that are way out of whack this Friday, and winds up being one of the better value plays I have seen all season. I have stated countless times, how I bet these selections, as I identify when there is significant value in the line (first and foremost) before ever getting the fundamental, technical and situational advantages of a particular selection. With that said, this outrageous line had me drooling so I am picking up on it quickly before some our value gets taken away by the savvy bettors. The opening number in this contest opened at Colorado +$150 and has quickly moved down to +$140. Rest assured thought guys, there is still plenty of value in this line for us to get this number where it stands now. The Rockies come into this contest winners of two in a row, while San Diego is going in the opposite direction, losers of four straight, while carrying the second worst record in baseball. "Momentum is very important," Todd Helton said. "When things are going bad, it just seems to snowball. Hopefully, it goes the other way, too." Cant argue with that concept, since some very successful baseball bettors exclusively bet these teams based upon streaks. Getting back the line value in the contest, despite the fact that San Diego is throwing their Ace (and one of the best pitchers in all baseball) the true line in this contest should have Colorado favored by -$105-$110. WOW. Advantage = Colorado!
Now many of you will wonder how I come up with the true lines, and its a system I have been using for years now for seven season and has never failed. We know the line is high for one reason and one reason alone, and that is the fact that Jake Peavy will be on the hill for San Diego. There is little question that he is a dominating picher and one of the best in the league (and his 2.22 ERA) certainly makes that case on its own. However, there has been some kinks in Peavys amour this season. Despite his dominance, Peavy has gone 11 consecutive starts where he failed to go at least six innings. The significance of that is the very fact that San Diego possesses the very worst bullpen ERA in the national League at 4.75! Historically, PEAVY has also been vulnerable against the Rockies in his career as his 4-4 mark with a 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.352 indicates. Despite being a disappointed, it should be noted that the Rockies are still profitable against right-handers in away/nights games this season where they are 5-5 +$130 with an offense averaging 4.3 runs per game. In stark contrast, San Diego comes into this contest with rather incredible home/night splits against right-handers where they are just 3-3 -$75 with an offense that averages, get this 2.5 runs per game! Overall, their offense is averaging just 3.4 runs against right-handers in all settings, so obviously, their mediocrity against the right-handers I no deviation from in this particular setting. That is fantastic news for Colorado right-hander Aaron Cook, who is coming off one of the more impressive outings of any pitcher all season. Indeed, in his last start, Cook had to cool off the hottest team in baseball as the Dodgers came into Coors Field riding an eight-game winning streak, during which they hit .327 as a team and outscored their opponents 70-35. Although Cook, gave up a fair share of hits (hes a sinker ball pitcher) and allowed just 2 earned runs. Said Rockies starter Jeff Francis, "Aaron gives up quite a few hits, but they're usually singles and they're all spread apart." Dodgers manager Joe Torre also was impressed. "Cook pitched a very good game," Torre said. "He pitched ahead in the count, and we never could get anything going against him." Unlike Peavy, Cook also has the confidence on knowing that historically, he is 8-3 when starting against the Padres with an ERA of 2.21 and a WHIP of 1.151. Advantage = Colorado!
Moving on the technicals, we have some absolutely frightening support for the Rockies. First, they fit into 5 super situational trends that average a 65.8% cover rate. Thats for starters. Then note the following: Colorado is 19-9 +$1490 against an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 2 seasons; 29-17 +$1810 against an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons; 27-19 +$1160 against a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 +$930 against an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better over the last 2 seasons. Getting to the fact that Peavy only averages less then 6 innings over his last 11 starts, the Rockies are 42-28 +$1880 vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game (San Diego averages 3.5 per game) over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, San Diego checks in with atrocious technicals such as they are 4-14 -$1120 after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season (where they lose by an average 2.2 runs per game); 12-21 -$1110 Units) against the money line in all games this season; 6-18 -$1420 in night games this season; 3-11 -$940 with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season; 4-14 -$1120 after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span this season; and 3-11 -$940 after batting .240 or worse over a 20 game span this season. In each of those situations, they averge loss margin ws by over 2 runs per game. With all that out of the way, there is simply no other way to put itthe wrong team is favored in this contest! HUGE ADVANTAGE COLORADO!
Verdict: Colorado 5, San Diego 1
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON COLORADO +$140
GOLD SHEET'S LTS
UTAH -4 1/2
Root
Chairman - Cleve Indians
Millionaire - Utah Jazz
Major Mis - Match - Oakland A's
Perfect Play - Minny Twins
Larry Ness
Vegas Insider - Jazz
Weekly Wipeout - Nationals
Game of the Week - Devil Rays
Brian Graves
Game: Yankees vs. Detroit
Pick: Over 10
I can't even imagine what the Tigers may do Kei Igawa tonight. Igawa on his best night is a deep fly ball pitcher and with all the Tigers power I just don't see how Igawa won't allow at least a couple of big flies before leaving somewhere around the 4th inning. This isn't the 06 playoffs as Rogers has not had much success against the Yankees in his career, so the Bronx Bombers who looked the part yesterday should be able to hang right with Detroit on the scoreboard tonight.
Josh Dean
NYY +123
PHI/PITT UNDER 5.5
FLA/WASH OVER 9