Matt Fargo
Tampa Bay Rays @ St. Louis
PICK: St. Louis
REASON FOR PICK: Tampa Bay has been hot but this line is a little aggressive for the upstart Rays. Coming off a series win over the Yankees was huge but now it is letdown time, especially now that it is once again time to hit the road. As usual with this team, it is much better at home than on the road. This season, the Rays are 8-9 away from home and this follows records of 29-52, 20-61, 27-54, 29-52, 27-54 and 25-55. You get the picture. Until Tampa Bay can start winning on the road, it should never be a favorite or even close to it.
The Cardinals have gone through a bit of a struggle with only two wins in their last nine games but I still consider them the superior team here. St. Louis is 15-9 at home this season and the success has come from a combination of solid pitching and consistent hitting. The Cardinals have a team ERA of 3.31 at home including 2.92 from the starting rotation. The bullpen has been struggling of late so the starters are the key. As for the offense, St. Louis is hitting .285 at home, the 5th best home average in baseball.
Braden Looper looks to recover from two straight below average performances against the Rockies and Brewers. However, it is important to note that those two outings came on the road where his ERA is close to a run and a half higher than it is at home. Looper has a 3.67 ERA at home and that includes one blowup game against the Giants where he allowed seven runs in just three innings. He has allowed two runs or fewer in his other four home starts, posting a solid 1.50 ERA in those games.
Andy Sonnanstine started the season slow, got hot, but is now once again in a funk. He has allowed nine runs in his last two starts which followed three straight quality outings. Surprisingly, all five of those games resulted in Tampa Bay wins. The winning streak is impressive but it has more been coincidence than it has been of solid pitching. Only three of his eight starts have been on the road where his ERA is 4.43 for the year and 5.17 in his 15 career road outings. Play St. Louis Cardinals 1.5 Units
DOC'S
Kansas City Royals @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Over
REASON FOR PICK: One only needs to look at the weak starting pitching in this game to feel confident that there will be a lot of runs scored in this affair. Brett Tomko will toe the rubber for the Royals and he does not have the stuff at this age to blow it past big league hitters. That is evident by the fact he is 1-4 with a 5.67 E.R.A. Believe it or not, that is a better E.R.A. then what Andrew Miller is allowing as he has enter the six range currently with an E.R.A. of 6.52. Yet his record is 3-2 meaning the Fish are scoring runs for him in these starts. Florida wins a high scoring game giving us the victory with the over.
Jeff Benton
Take the Angels over the Dodgers.
I know this is a new era of Dodgers baseball with Joe Torre at the helm, and that Torre obviously has a ton of experience managing in American League ballparks. But I still dont think you can ignore just how god-awful the Dodgers have been in interleague play over the years. They come into tonight having lost 29 of their last 39 interleague games, including 21 of their last 27 interleague contests against winning teams. Not only that, but the Dodgers are 14-37 in their last 57 interleague games as an underdog, 4-23 in their last 27 interleague road games and 1-7 in their last eight against the A.L. West.
Those are some startling numbers. And given those numbers, it should come as no surprise that the Angels have owned this Freeway Series of late, winning seven of the last eight meetings, including five straight at home by the combined score of 32-6! Also, the one team that Joe Torre had a losing record against in his time as Yankees manager The Angels.
Then you look at this pitching matchup of Joe Saunders (6-1, 2.48 ERA) against the Dodgers Hiroki Kuroda (1-2, 3.59 ERA), and the advantage lies with the Angels. Throw in the fact that the Halos are unbeaten in Saunders four home starts and 21-8 in his last 29 starts overall, and this price on the home team is too cheap to pass up.
4* L.A. ANGELS
Nelly
Oakland (Eveland) + over Atlanta (Jurrjens)
Atlanta owns a great home record but the As are a winning road team. Oakland has historically been one of the top interleague teams year in and year out and this is great underdog value for the opener of what is traditionally an AL dominated event. Jair Jurrjens has posted great numbers this season but he ran into some trouble in his most recent start and it is unlikely that he will continue at a similar pace. He owns great numbers at home but it is built on just three starts, all against weak hitting offenses. Despite the strong numbers the Braves are just 4-4 when Jurrjens starts. Dana Eveland has pitched great for the As this season with a 3.23 ERA. The As also own arguably the top bullpen in baseball through the fist quarter of the season. Oaklands offense doesn?t post huge numbers but the As get on base a lot and have shown the ability to win close games. The Braves on the other hand have struggled to close out games and tend to waste good starting performances with late-inning collapses.
Strike Point Sports
These are pretty good odds on Johan Santana, also considering how poorly the Yankees have been playing. The Mets, too, haven't looked great, but they have a big time edge over Darrell Rasner in this one and will get to him more than the Bombers will touch the Mets' ace. The subway series opener goes to the road team from Queens.
NEW YORK METS
Robert Ferringo
The Diamondbacks have been smoking at home, while the Tigers just got swept by the lowly Royals. Jeremy Bonderman is weak, and has been touched up for nine runs in 10 innings over his last two outings. Mix in the fact that we have two weak bullpens and that Dan Haren has a career ERA over 5.00 and I love the 'over' here. The Diamondbacks are 8-0-1 against the total in their last nine interleague games and 20-7-2 in their last 29 interleague home games. Detroit couldn't put a thing together against the Royals. But I think they are about to snap out of their hitting slump in a big way. I just don't think their bullpen is going to be able to nail it down, and I see this one turning out to be an 8-7 Arizona winner.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -140
TIGERS / DIAMONDBACKS OVER 9
Michael Cannon
15 Dime
METS (With Santana and Rasner as listed pitchers)
Take the Mets as the road chalk for the win tonight over the Yankees.
The Yankees are faltering. Big time.
Their once potent lineup has been decimated by injuries and they are struggling to score runs. That doesn?t bode well going into tonight?s game with Johan Santana taking the mound.
The left-hander has settled down after a bit of a rocky start to the season. He?s 4-2 with a 3.10 ERA in eight games. Santana has been good against the Yankees in his career too, going 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in five games.
Since the Yankees don?t have the same potent lineup right now that Santana is used to facing, he should be able to hold them in check.
Take the Mets as they grab the road win.
10 Dime
CAVALIERS
Take the Cavs minus the points tonight in Game 6 over the Celtics.
There?s no reason to think the Cavs won?t win and cover here. Boston has yet to show it can win on the road and with each loss on the highway it becomes more of a psychological problem than anything.
Home teams have dominated this playoff season, going 20-1 SU and 16-4-1 ATS. Detroit is the only road team that has posted a road win.
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in this series and 5-1 ATS in its last six overall. The Cavs are also 7-0 ATS as a playoff favorite of less than five points, 6-1 ATS as a playoff chalk at any price and 4-1 ATS at home.
Boston is only 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games overall. They are 0-5 SUATS on the road in this year?s playoffs, 1-7 ATS in conference semifinal games, 1-5 ATS against teams with a winning SU record and 1-4 ATS as a playoff dog of less than five points.
Take the Cavs as they grab the home win and cover and force a Game 7.
5 Dime
MARLINS (With Tomko and Miller as listed pitcher)
All right, I had Andrew Miller and the Florida Marlins last night over the Reds, but the game was rained out.
I see no reason to jump ship just because the opponent changes to the Kansas City Royals.
I wrote yesterday how Miller had turned his season around, going 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA over his last three games. He is coming off his best start of the season, pitching seven shutout innings, walking one and striking out seven at Washington on Saturday.
The Royals will start Brett Tomko and I just don?t trust this guy. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 5.67 ERA in games this year.
The Marlins have come together a lot quicker than anyone anticipated.
The Royals are also a team on the upswing, but that?s only when they send Brian Bannister or Zack Greinke to the mound.
Take the Marlins as they grab the home win
Wunderdog
Game: Washington at Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore -128
Washington spoiled the Mets chances to make the playoffs last September, and come back and take three of four in NY. Other than being Met killers the track record on the road for the Nats isn't very impressive. As good as Shawn Hill has pitched for the Nats, Garrett Olson has been better for the O's. Olson is pitching with a DH in the lineup, and has posted an ERA that is better than half a run better than Hill. The O's are getting it done at home, as they are 12-6 at Camden Yard, and we look for them to open interleague play with a win.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NBA (14-3-1 playoff run, incliuding 5-1-1 with Insiders)
Cleveland
Tony Karpinski
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Philadelphia (22-19) starts Moyer on the mound against Toronto (20-22) on Friday knowing that he has lost 2 of his last 3 starts against Toronto, getting shelled for 28 hits for 17 earned runs in only 15 innings of work! Philly is a hitters ballpark and the Blue Jays should have their ways. Toronto starts left hander, David Purcey, against a Philly team that's just 9-7 against southpaws this season and that combination is enough to back the dog here as Toronto enters this on a 3-game winning streak.
The Fat Jack
Boston Celtics
Ben Burns
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Over
REASON FOR PICK: This game has the makings of a high-scoring affair. Purcey makes his second start for the Jays. While he did only allow only a single earned run in his debut, a closer look shows that he lasted just 4 1/3 innings and the he surrendered a whopping seven walks. That should spell trouble against a potent Phllies lineup which is heating up, having scored at least five runs per game in each of its last three. Slugger Ryan Howard is finally coming around, with three home runs in his last seven games. As manager Charlie Manuel noted: "When he gets hot, somebody’s ERA is going up." Veteran Jamie Moyer is coming off his worst outing of the season which saw him allow a season-high six earned runs and nine hits in just four innings of an 8-2 loss. That game finished above the total, bringing the 'over' to 2-0 his last two starts. Now the 45-year old southpaw takes on a Jays team which has really given him problems. In his last 18 starts vs. the Jays, dating back to 1999, Moyer has an ugly 5.69 ERA. Not surprisingly, the OVER was 13-5 in those games. The most recent of those starts came here last season. Moyer lasted just 3 1/3 innings and gave up seven earned runs. The final score of 11-2 sailed 'over' the posted total. Consider a play on the OVER
Cal Sports
4'* Cavs
4* Jazz Under 213
Andre gomes
LA/Utah Under 212
GamblersWorld Tip of the Day
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
The Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Camden Yards in an interleague contest. The Nationals will pin their hopes on the pitching of ace righthander Shawn Hill in this game. Hill has a 0-0 record and a 3.56 ERA this season. The Orioles will counter Hill with Garrett Olson. Lefthander Olson has a 2.95 ERA to go along with a 2-0 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Orioles listed as 140-moneyline favorites versus the Nationals, while the game's total is sitting at 8½. The Nationals defeated the Mets 1-0 in the series finale on Thursday to claim the four-game set. The Nationals won the game as +160 underdogs, and team's played UNDER the posted over/under (9.5). Felipe Lopez' sacrifice fly drove in the only run and Aaron Boone had two hits for the Nationals. Jason Bergmann tossed seven scoreless innings and allowed just three hits in the victory. Jay Payton belted a grand slam to lift the Orioles to a 6-3 win over the Red Sox on Wednesday as +115 underdogs. The nine runs went as a PUSH against the posted over/under (9). Payton finished with five RBIs to lead the Orioles. Daniel Cabrera improved to 4-1 with the win, allowing three runs off 10 hits over seven innings. Current streak: Washington has won 2 straight games. Baltimore has won 2 straight games. Team records: Washington: 18-24 SU Baltimore: 21-19 SU Washington most recently: When playing on Friday are 6-4 Before playing Baltimore are 4-6 After playing NY Mets are 6-4 After a win are 5-5 Baltimore most recently: When playing on Friday are 5-5 Before playing Washington are 4-6 After playing Boston are 3-7 After a win are 5-5 A few trends to consider: Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games when playing on the road against Baltimore Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games Baltimore is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 10 games when playing at home against Washington The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Baltimore's last 16 games when playing Washington