Rocketman Sports
LA Dodgers @ LA Angels
3* LA Angels -125
Joe Saunders is 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA overall this year, 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA at home this year and 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA his last 3 starts. LA Angels are 5-1 at home vs LA Dodgers the past 3 years. We'll play the LA Angels for 3 units tonight
Tony Weston
We're switching gears and focusing on some NBA action and looking at the Eastern Conference as the Boston Celtics hit the road to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Right off the bat, take the Cavs.
Over their last nine meetings the Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS against the Celtics and are 5-1 ATS their last six meetings, including a three-game winning streak ATS.
In that stretch the Cavs are 2-0 SU in the playoffs against Boston with wins in Games 3 and 4. So far in 11 postseason games the Cavaliers are only 6-5 SU, but are 8-3 ATS, including a 4-1 mark ATS and SU at home.
The Celtics, on the other hand, are 5-7 ATS so far in the postseason and are 0-5 ATS on the road.
It'll be another road loss ATS for Boston.
Take the Cavs at home tonight.
4* CAVALIERS
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Rays/Cardinals Over 9
Tampa Bay is 44-25 OVER in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. Tampa Bay is 9-0 OVER in road games in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. Braden Looper is 18-7 OVER in night games over the last 2 seasons. St. Louis is giving up 5.7 runs per game over their last 7 games. This will be a high scoring affair against the Rays’ hot offense. Tampa Bay is also 9-1 OVER in road games vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with the OVER 9 runs.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Astros/Rangers UNDER 10.5
The odds makers have got this one all wrong. Two of the best starting pitchers on the Astros and Rangers’ staffs go toe-to-toe tonight in Game 1 of this interleague contest. Shawn Chacon has a 2.81 ERA in 5 road starts this season. Sidney Ponson has a 3.16 ERA in 4 starts for the Rangers this year. With both of these solid starters hurling tonight, there is no way you will see a double-digit run total by game’s end. Texas is 16-4 UNDER (+11.4 Units) with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. Chacon is 23-8 UNDER (+14.4 Units) vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game since 1997. Take the UNDER 10.5 runs.
Bob Akmens
Seattle Mariners +105
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.
The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows –
Without analyzing this game to death, based on one stat alone, this line is absurd.
Curt Young and the Padres are as much as a -115 favorite as the offshore books.
How about the fact that the last 10 times Curt Young started a game on the road, the Padres have a…….drumroll here…..1-9 road record!
So, is it amazing that the Pads are favorites here?
And it’s not like Miguel Batista is some sort of bum at home, either.
The Mariners have won 4 of his last 6 and 6 of his last 10 home starts.
So why is the line what it is? Because both teams have virtually identical overall rotten W-L records. And the public tends not to look much past that sometimes meaningless stat.
And the linemaker correctly perceives that the public will believe Curt young is the better pitcher here. Which he may very well be if they were in San Diego tonight – but they’re not.
The Padres have a woeful 7-17 road record (that’s 29% wins, folks) and Young sure as heck is no prize on the road at 9 Padre losses in his last 10 starts.
Go with the MARINERS as a short +105 dog
Mike Rose
San Francisco Giants +103
Gavin Floyd will look to bounce back from his rough outing his last time out against Seattle, and try to look more like the pitcher that nearly pitched a no-hitter against Minnesota back on May sixth. He comes into this start 3-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He’s allowed 29 hits and 19 runs (16 earned) with a poor K/BB ratio of 19/20 in a little over 43 total innings of work. He’s had trouble on the road thus far going 1-2 with an ERA of 4.57 and a WHIP of 1.43. He faced the Giants as a member of the Phillies back on 2006, but is yet to go up against them in interleague play as a member of the White Sox.
Opposing him will be the Giants Jonathan Sanchez who will be making his ninth start of the season. He only sports a 2-2 mark, but the Giants have gone on to win six of his eight total start. He’s surrendered 37 hits and 24 runs to his opponents in a shade over 43 innings of work, and has proven to be a strikeout pitcher already fanning 46 batters on the year. At one point in April, he had only allowed a total of six earned runs and the Giants won five of his starts in a row. However, May has been a completely different story as he’s been rocked in each of his starts and hasn’t made it passed the fifth in either game. This will be his first ever start against the Chicago White Sox.
Chicago is 0-5 the last five times they’ve competed in an interleague match-up as the favorite, and they’re 2-7 their L/9 on the road against a sub .500 team. The Giants are 4-1 their L/5 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter, and they’re a perfect 4-0 in Sanchez’ L/4 starts as a home underdog.
Ted Sevransky
Minnesota Twins @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Over
REASON FOR PICK: It’s not hard to make a strong case for the Over when two weak pitchers face off against two hot hitting offenses in a ballpark that has been producing runs in bunches in recent weeks. Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez has been on my ‘play against’ list for much of the season. Jimenez has been nothing short of a disaster area this year: a 5.53 ERA and 1.82 WHIP only hint at how bad he’s actually been, with the Rockies stumbling to a 1-7 record with Ubaldo on the hill. His 38-28 strikeout to walk ratio gives us a real picture of his early season struggles, in sharp contrast to his stellar run during Colorado’s amazing stretch run last year. The Rockies would send Jimenez down to Triple A to get more seasoning, but they are out of options on him, and they don’t want to run the risk of another team claiming him on waivers. Look for the feisty Twins offense (50 runs scored in their last nine games) to stay hot tonight, with sparkplug Carlos Gomez and masher Joe Mauer both expected back in the lineup today after a day off yesterday.
But the Rockies should be able to trade runs with the Twins here. Colorado, too, has been swinging the bats much better of late, pounding out 43 runs over seven games on their last homestand after scoring 33 runs in their six prior home games. They’ve been crushing righties like Minnesota’s Nick Blackburn all year, hitting .287 and scoring more than five runs per game against them at Coors Field. Blackburn has been hit hard in each of his last four starts: 34 hits and 16 runs allowed. And, with only 14 strikeouts in his last six starts, the ability for Rockies hitters to make contact is bad news for Blackburn and the Twins. We’re getting a very reasonable total to bet Over here, with the wind blowing in, but I don’t expect that wind to be a factor at all with these two struggling hurlers on the hill. Take the Over.
LARRY NESS
New York Mets @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Mets
REASON FOR PICK: The Yankees own the best interleague record of any team in MLB (113-79) but enter this three-game series with the Mets, still without A-Rod and Jorge Posada. The Yanks (now 20-22) just lost three of four in Tampa to the red-hot Rays, scoring a total of just six runs in the four games. After leading all of MLB with a .290 team BA last year and scoring a league-high 968 runs (5.98 per), the Yanks are hitting just .258 this year, while averaging only 4.12 RPG. The Mets are just 20-19 so far in '08 and have gone only 25-35 vs the hated Yankees in interleague play. Last off-season it was the Mets, not the Yanks, who were able to sign Johan Santana and he gets the start tonight. Santana was "booed off the mound" at Shea back on April 12, after allowing six hits and five runs in 6.2 innings against Milwaukee. However, he's 3-0 in five starts since then (Mets are 5-0), posting a very solid 3.13 ERA. Santana is also 16-4 with a 2.27 ERA in interlague games (34 appearances, including 24 starts) and should be tough on a Yankee lineup that's 4-7 vs left-handers in '08, averaging a pathetic 3.2 RPG. Opposing him will be Darrell Rasner. Rasner made 12 appearances (nine starts) for the Yanks the last two years, going 4-4 with a 4.20 ERA. He began this year in the minors but is 2-0 in two starts since being called up. He beat Seattle at home and Detroit on the road, lasting six innings while allowing two ERs in each outing. Rasner will find himself in a little over his head here against Santana, especially with the Yankee lineup at less than 100 percent attempting to back him up. Go with Santana and the Mets.
JB's COMPUTER PICKS
Florida Marlins - 120
Arizona Diamondbacks - 140
Los Angeles Angels - 130
GINA
Boston Celtics (73-21) at Cleveland Cavaliers (51-42)
The Cavaliers are 4-1 both straight-up and against the spread at home in the playoffs, while the Celtics are 0-4 both straight-up and against the spread on the road. Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in the last eight battles against Boston at home.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Los Angeles Lakers (64-27) at Utah Jazz (60-33)
The home team is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings and Utah is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 battles against Los Angeles at home..
Utah Jazz
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers (20-21) at Boston Red Sox (24-19)
The Boston Red Sox are coming off a disappointing road trip, 4-6 last 10 on the road, but they are back at Fenway Park and will send Daisuke Matsuzaka to the hill tonight. The right-hander is 6-0 with a 2.45 ERA, unbeaten in 11 starts. Milwaukee counters with Jeff Suppan. The right-hander allowed one run and six hits over seven innings in a 5-3 victory against St. Louis in his last start on Sunday, first win in seven starts. Go with the Red Sox. Boston has played well in interleague action, 105-88 all-time and is 14-3 in Matsuzakas' last 17 starts, 7-0 in his last 7 at home. The Brewers have lost their last 6 road games.
Boston Red Sox -210
Big AL
NBA 3* Celtics
MLB Opinion on Baltimore
Indian Cowboy POD
Cleveland/Boston OVER 179
Ben Burns
MLB Cincinnati Reds -116 4 units
MLB Colorado Rockies -125 4 units
Erin Rynning
MLB St. Louis Under 9
MLB Colorado Under 10
MLB Playmaker: Seattle Under 8.5
NBA Passing
Vegas-Runner 5* NBA PLAYOFFS TOTAL of the YEAR
UTA / LAL Over 212.5
Guys the only reason that I didn't post this immediately was because I was still trying to get a better feel for what the market will do later on as the game approaches...and because the books that I spoke to so far claim to need this side also, we may be able to get an even better number to go OVER with...I have seen a few move on and off of 212 throughout the day so it seems to have stabilized