SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Boston (11-8, 7-12 ATS) at (2) Detroit (10-6, 10-6 ATS)
The Celtics, who held on to take Game 5 at home for a 3-2 series lead, aim to grab a spot in the NBA Finals for the first time since 1987 when they travel to the Palace at Auburn Hills to battle the Pistons, who hope to stave off elimination and force a Game 7 back in Boston.
Boston blew almost all of a 13-point fourth-quarter lead Wednesday night, hanging on for a 106-102 victory, but failing to cash as a six-point home chalk. There was finally a Ray Allen sighting, as the Celtics’ shooting guard poured in 29 points, going 5 of 6 from 3-point range and hitting a late bucket that helped stave off Detroit’s rally.
Kevin Garnett (33 points) and Paul Pierce (16) gave Boston’s “Big Three” a total of 78 points, one game after the trio managed just 43 points in a Game 4 loss in Detroit. Kendrick Perkins added a surprising double-double of 18 points and 16 rebounds for the Celtics, while Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton paced the Pistons with 26 and 25 points, respectively.
Despite Wednesday’s SU win, the Celts continue to be a bad bet, as they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. The Pistons, meanwhile are 14-6 SU and ATS in their past 20 starts going back to the regular season.
Boston is 5-3 SU this season against Detroit, but the two teams have split the cash in those eight meetings, with the Pistons’ cover in Game 5, halting a run in which the straight-up winner had cashed in seven consecutive meetings. The road team is on a 10-3 ATS tear in the last 13 clashes between these two, and the underdog has cashed in 13 of the last 18 meetings.
The Celtics are on ATS streaks of 41-18 as a road underdog, 6-1 as an underdog of five to 10½ points and 36-15-1 after putting up more than 100 points in a game. However, Boston is mired in pointspread funks of 1-7 in roadies, 2-8 on one day of rest, 1-4 as an underdog, 1-4 after a SU win, 2-7 in conference finals games, 2-5 after a non-cover and 2-5 as a playoff ‘dog of five to 10½ points.
The Pistons are on an 8-2 ATS run on one day of rest and are on additional positive ATS runs of 6-0 after a SU loss, 6-2 as a chalk, 14-5 at the Palace, 10-4 as a home favorite of five to 10½ points, 16-7 on Friday and 9-4 against winning teams. On the negative side, Detroit is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 conference finals games and 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 100 points.
Wednesday’s game sailed over the posted price of 173½, slightly cooling a red-hot “under” streak in this rivalry. Still, the under is 10-3 in the last 13 battles (3-2 in this playoff series) and 5-1 in the last six battles in Detroit (3-0 “under” in Motown this season).
Furthermore, for Boston, the under is on runs of 4-0 on the highway, 9-2 after allowing more than 100 points, 8-2 as a road pup of five to 10½ points, 7-3 in the conference finals and 19-9 against the Central Division. For Detroit, the under is 16-5 as a favorite, 5-1 as a playoff chalk, 8-1 after scoring more than 100 points and after allowing more than 100 points, 4-1 at home, 7-2 against winning teams and 19-7-1 in the conference finals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (30-22) at Philadelphia (31-24)
The Marlins will send left-hander Mark Hendrickson (7-2, 4.14 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park in the opener of a three-game weekend set against the Phillies, who will counter with struggling Brett Myers (2-6, 5.79) in a battle between the top two teams in the N.L. East.
Florida comes into this series having dropped two in a row against the New York Mets, including a 7-6, 12-inning setback Wednesday night. The Marlins, who opened the three-game series against the Mets with a 7-3 win, are still 6-3 in their last nine games. They sit in first place in the East, a half-game ahead of the Phillies.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, is coming off a three-game home sweep against Colorado, posting a 6-1 rout Wednesday before joining Florida in taking Thursday off. The Phillies, outscored the Rockies 33-10 in the three victories, and they have now won four in a row – starting with a 15-6 rout at Houston on Sunday.
This is the first series of the season between these division rivals. They split the 18 meetings in 2007, but the Phillies went 6-3 at home and are 12-4 in the last 16 head-to-head contests at Citizens Bank Park. However, Philly is 0-4 in Myers’ last four starts against the Marlins.
Hendrickson is 3-1 with one no-decision in his last five outings, and the Marlins are 8-2 in games he’s started. On Sunday against San Francisco, he got roughed up a bit, allowing five runs on nine hits in five innings, but he got the win as Florida pounded out an 8-6 victory.
The 6-foot-9-inch Hendrickson is 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA on the road this year, but he’s 0-1 with an inflated 12.60 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against Philadelphia – both last year while he was with the Dodgers, and primarily due to him allowing seven runs on 11 hits in just three innings of a 15-3 blowout in L.A.
Myers has gone more than six weeks without a win, going 0-5 with two no-decisions in his last seven starts, and the Phillies have lost six in a row when he takes the ball. On Saturday at Houston, the right-hander allowed four runs on eight hits in six innings in a 4-3 loss for his fourth straight setback.
Myers is 2-1 with a 4.31 ERA at home this season, and he’s 5-7 with a 5.01 ERA in 24 career appearances (18 starts) against the Marlins. Last year, he went 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in seven appearances (two starts) against Florida, allowing 12 runs on 20 hits in 10 2/3 innings.
The Marlins have notched five straight wins against right-handers and are on runs of 13-3 against winning teams, 9-3 after an off day, 15-6 in series openers and 12-5 against the National League East. On the negative side, the Marlins are on a 1-5 skid on the highway.
The Phillies have taken four in a row against left-handers and are 6-1 at home against lefties, 9-2 in Friday contests, 29-10 in series openers and 5-2 against the N.L. East. However, Philly is 3-13 in Myers’ last 16 starts overall, 3-10 in his last 13 at home and 2-14 in his last 16 within the division.
The over is on myriad runs for the Marlins, including 5-0-1 overall, 6-1-2 on the highway, 5-1 following a loss, 5-1 in series openers, 24-9-2 on Friday, 17-8-3 after an off day and a lengthy 58-26-8 in Florida’s last 92 division contests. However, the under is 9-0 in the Marlins’ last nine against winning teams. For Philadelphia, the over is on an 11-2 tear in series openers and is 5-1 on Friday, 4-1 against lefties and 9-3-1 following a win, though the under is 6-2 in its last eight against N.L. East foes.
Finally, the over is 35-16-2 in the last 53 series clashes between these two, though four of the last five meetings in Philly have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (30-23) at Tampa Bay (32-22)
Jose Contreras (5-3, 3.06 ERA) takes the ball for the White Sox when they face James Shields (4-3, 3.37) and the Rays in the second game of a four-game series at Tropicana Field.
Chicago posted a 5-1 victory in the opener Thursday night, improving to 12-3 in its last 15 games, including 8-1 on the highway. Meanwhile, despite Thursday’s setback, Tampa Bay is also playing great ball, having gone 14-6 in its last 20 games overall, including 11-3 at the Trop. Going back further, the Rays have won 17 of their last 20 at home.
Chicago has won eight of the last nine games against the Rays, posting a 7-1 mark at Tampa during that span.
The White Sox are 4-0 in Contreras’ last four outings. The righty has won three of his last four, getting a no-decision in a 3-2 home win against the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. In that contest, Contreras allowed just two runs on three hits in eight innings, with no walks and 10 strikeouts.
Contreras is 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA on the road this season, and he’s a perfect 5-0 with a 2.89 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against Tampa Bay.
Shields hasn’t notched a win in three weeks, going 0-1 with two no-decisions, but the Rays won those two games. On Sunday, the Rays’ ace allowed four runs on eight hits in eight innings, with Tampa earning a walk-off 5-4 home win over Baltimore. It was the fourth straight start that Shields went beyond seven innings – that includes his most recent win, a 2-0 gem at home against the Angels in which he threw a one-hit complete game May 9.
Shields is 3-1 with a solid 1.75 ERA in six home starts this season, but he’s 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in two career efforts versus Chicago – both coming last year, when he allowed nine runs on 19 hits in 14 total innings as the Rays lost both games.
The White Sox are 7-1 in their last seven games as an underdog, 8-3 in their last 11 Friday contests and 6-1 in Contreras’ last seven road starts. On the flip side, Chicago is in ruts of 1-4 against the A.L. East, 4-9 in the second game of a series and 3-9 with Contreras throwing against A.L. East foes.
The Rays sport several positive streaks, including 8-1 at home against winning teams, 19-8 as a home chalk, 16-5 against right-handers, 9-4 in Game 2 of a series and 4-1 in Friday outings. With Shields on the mound, Tampa sports streaks of 6-0 at home against winning teams, 9-1 at home overall and 10-2 as a favorite.
The under is 6-0 in Contreras’ last six starts overall, 4-0 in his last four on the highway, 4-1 in his last five versus the A.L. East and 10-4-1 in his last 15 against winning teams. Also, the under is 6-2 in Shields’ last eight starts against the A.L. Central.
The under for the White Sox is on streaks of 21-9 overall, 12-4 as an underdog, 9-0 on artificial turf, 6-0 against the A.L. East and 16-7 against right-handed starters, but the over is 4-1 in its last five roadies. For the Rays, the under runs include 8-3 at home against winning teams, 8-3-1 against the A.L. Central and 12-5 in Game 2 of a series.
Finally, the under is 8-1 in the last nine series meetings between these two, including 7-1 in the last eight clashes at Tropicana Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Chris Jordan
Toronto at ANAHEIM -130
Why wouldn’t we lay the chalk in this game? The Halos come in off a series-win over Detroit, albeit they lost the last game, they’ve won seven of their last 10, they’re coming in after a day off and have been at home all week. From the other dugout, we have a Toronto team that will play its 11 game in as many days, that will play if fourth straight on the road (no it never had a day off after getting to Oakland from Toronto on Tuesday), and that now faces a team that has won three of the last four meetings, including two of three this season – in Toronto.
Looking further inside the numbers, Toronto is mired in a 7-19 skid in Dustin McGowan’s last 26 road starts and 1-5 in his last six starts against the American League West. The Jays are also mired in a 3-11 skid in their last 14 during Game 1 of a series. On the contrary, Anaheim has won five straight in Game 1 of a series and rolls in on a 16-7 spurt in its last 23 home starts. The Halos have won seven of their last 10 overall, and should have no trouble taking it so the weary-traveling Jays
4* ANGELS
Karl Garrett
Atlanta +145 at CINCINNATI
The G-Man likes the Braves to come through with another road win tonight, as Atlanta did pick up a road win yesterday at Milwaukee in convincing fashion, 8-1.
Edinson Volquez has been a terror on the mound this year at 7-1, but the team responsible for that loss was Atlanta, as the Braves swept a three game set from the Reds back at the start of May.
Tom Glavine was rocked in this last start, but he did win his two starts prior, and you all know how the Reds usually struggle when they face a quality southpaw.
Atlanta should been much better than they are on the road this season, while Cincy has overachieved a little at home this year.
G-Man likes the Braves plus the take-back tonight!
2* ATLANTA
Lucky Leprechaun Sports
CHICAGO -145 over Colorado
The Rockies are 3-14 in their last 17 games as an underdog and 10-26 in their last 36 games following a loss, while the Cubs are 27-8 in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 10-3 in their last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rockies are playing really bad ball right now. As if losing 4 offensive stars wasn't enough, they had 2 costly errors that cost them vs the cubs last night. You can't give a strong offensive squad like the Cubs extra outs and unearned runs. The Cubs average 6.4 rpg at home and are outscoring their opponents by 3.7 rpg in their last 21 home games. The Rockies aer scoring just 3.7 rpg on the road and just 3.9 rpg during the day, plus in games when they face a lefty they are being outscored by 1.6 rpg. The Rockies are also scoring just 3.5 rpg in their last 8 and are being outscored by 6.8 rpg on the current road trip. Aaron Cook has been good this year for Colorado, but he is going up against a team that scores plenty of runs at home with a leaky defense behind him. Not a good combo. Lilly has been decent at home this year and he should get plenty of run support to win this one.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Cleveland w/Lee vs Meche
Note: The Tribe opens a three-game visit to Kansas City Friday night when Cliff Lee takes on Gil Meche at Royals Stadium. With Lee sporting a 1.24 ERA away from home this season and Meche with a 7.72 ERA at home, look for the Indians to take the opener here tonight.
With a push on last night's NBA play, Marc is now 4-1-1 on of his last 6 NBA Killer Plays! He's isolated yet another Killer Play on Friday night's Game Six showdown between the Celtics and Pistons and it's backed by a dynamite winning angle inside the game that is 14-0 ATS in the playoffs since 1990.
Dave Cokin
Padres @ Giants
Play: Padres +120
I like Giants righty Matt Cain's bulldog approach and while I don't think his stuff is good enough to ever propel him to elite status, he looks like a guy who should be a very productive starter for years to come. But I can't see Cain and the Giants as this much chalk in their Friday contest with Greg Maddux and the Padres. San Diego is actually showing some signs of life winning three of their last four, and Maddux has numbers that are just as good as Cain's. This game looks like a tossup, so there's decent value in backing the Padres at the price.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Boston (Beckett) over Baltimore (Cabrera)
Baltimore is 1-7 in the team starts made by Danny Cabrera versus the O’s, while Boston is 4-1 with Josh Beckett in road outings versus Baltimore. In addition, Boston is 5-1 when Beckett starts with five days rest. Finally, the O’s are 2-8 L10 versus a team with a winning record. Red Sox roll!
James Patrick Sports
Columbus vs. New Orleans
The Destroyers have been self destructive more than anything else this season in Arena Football League action. They travel to the Bayou to take on an explosive VooDoo team and our selection in Arena Football League Action this Friday is New Orleans VooDoo.
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
I'm playing the Angels in the matchup of McGowan and Weaver. Dustin McGowan has fared quite well at Rogers Centre, but he's really struggled at times away from home. In fact, he's 0-3 in six road starts this season, sporting a hefty 5.91 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Tonight, he and the Jays will face an Angels' squad that owns the American League's second best record. And, they'll have to try and do something they have not been able to do in two previous tries...solve Jered Weaver. The Angels' righty has won both of his starts against the Jays, and he's almost untouchable at Angel Stadium. Despite some problems away from home, Weaver has allowed just eight earned runs and 32 base runners in 32 1/3 IP in Anaheim. That's a sizzling, 2.23 ERA & 0.99 WHIP, to go along with a fantastic .212 BAA! In his last three starts overall, Weaver has directed the Angels to three wins giving up a grand total of TWO runs and 15 base runners in 20 1/3 innings of work. In fact, he's allowed just 3 hits, 5 hits, and 1 hit in his last three starts! With Weaver normally going into the seventh, or in fact, completing seven full innings at home, I expect the Halos to cruise into the ninth, where, if needed, they have the league's top "saves" guy, Fransisco Rodriguez. The line is cheap and I'll gladly lay it with the Angels.
Big Al McMordie
Game:Blue Jays vs Angels
Pick:Angels
At 10:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Angels may not be the best team in the American League (although that's debatable), but they are probably the most consistent. For example, Los Angeles has records of 16-12 at home and 16-11 on the road. They are hitting .251 vs. righties and .264 vs. lefties. Their overall ERA is 3.97 and bullpen ERA is 3.70. So fortunately for the Angels, their management, and their fans, they are not only consistent, but consistently GOOD, unlike a lot of teams in the league. the Angels' 25 year-old righthander Jeff Weaver WAS VERY inconsistent to begin the season but now is very consistently awesome. Almost unhittable in fact in his last three starts. During this time, Weaver has a 0.89 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. Toronto's righthander Dustin McGowan has been ok on the year at 3-4 with a 3.90 ERA, but he has been a disaster on the road where the 26 year-old is 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA in 32 innings. The other piece of bad news for Toronto tonight is that it has never beaten the Angels (0-3) in games which McGowan has started. Where the 12 runs that the Jays scored on Thursday came from is anyone's guess. It was only the third time this season (and first since April 15) that Toronto has scored in double figures, but it has scored as few as 1 run (or been shut out) eleven times. I don't believe the Jays will have any firepower left for tonight after that most unusual display of hitting. Take the Angels.
Ross Benjamin
Game: Toronto (McGowan) @ LA Angels (Weaver)
Pick: Under 8.0
The Angels have gone under the total in their last 9 games and 16 of their last 22. The Halos are hitting a paltry .202 as a team over the last 10 games. Their starting pitcher Jered Weaver enters the game in excellent form over his last 3 starts posting a 0.74 WHIP and a microscopic 0.89 ERA. Weaver has been spectacular in 5 starts at home this season posting a 2.23 ERA. The Toronto starter McGowan enters the game in good form off of his last 3 starts posting a 2.45 ERA while striking out 9 and walking none. McGowan has seen 10 of his last 12 starts on the road go under the total. Toronto has gone under the total in 43 of their last 64 on the road. Play on under the total.
Chuck Franklin
Chicago +130 at TAMPA BAY
The Rays have not lost back-to-back home games in six weeks. The White Sox will end that run with a win tonight in Tampa Bay. Red-hot Chicago has won 12 of the last 15 games played. They are 7-1 the last eight games played in Tampa Bay. Overall, the White Sox have won 20 of the last 28 games played in this series.
Jose Contreras is on the mound for the ChiSox. He has been solid in each of his last four starts, allowing no more than two earned runs in each of those games, with a 1.61 ERA and a 3-0 record. He is 5-0 lifetime against the Rays with a 2.89 ERA. Tampa Bay has Jamie Shields getting the start. He is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his last four home games, but 0-1 in two starts against the White Sox.
Plus-money with the Top Dog White Sox is the only play!
3* CHICAGO
Chris Jordan
Toronto at ANAHEIM -130
Why wouldn’t we lay the chalk in this game? The Halos come in off a series-win over Detroit, albeit they lost the last game, they’ve won seven of their last 10, they’re coming in after a day off and have been at home all week. From the other dugout, we have a Toronto team that will play its 11 game in as many days, that will play if fourth straight on the road (no it never had a day off after getting to Oakland from Toronto on Tuesday), and that now faces a team that has won three of the last four meetings, including two of three this season – in Toronto.
Looking further inside the numbers, Toronto is mired in a 7-19 skid in Dustin McGowan’s last 26 road starts and 1-5 in his last six starts against the American League West. The Jays are also mired in a 3-11 skid in their last 14 during Game 1 of a series. On the contrary, Anaheim has won five straight in Game 1 of a series and rolls in on a 16-7 spurt in its last 23 home starts. The Halos have won seven of their last 10 overall, and should have no trouble taking it so the weary-traveling Jays.
4* ANGELS
JEFFERSONSPORTS
MLB EARLY RELEASES FOR FRI
MINNESOTA+115
HOUSTON+120
Jim Feist
LA Dodgers and NY Mets
Take Under
Shea Stadium is a huge park, great for pitchers. NY starter John Maine knows this well, with an ERA over 4 on the road, but 2.28 at home. And these offenses aren't top notch, as both the Mets and Dodgers are in the bottom half of the NL in runs scored. The Dodgers go with rookie lefty Clayton Kershaw who's stuff is outstanding. He's got a great shot at rookie pitcher of the year and the Mets have never seen him. Don't look for a lot of runs in this park, Play the Dodgers/Mets under the total