Ben Burns Friday Night MAIN EVENT (7-0 in series!)
I'm taking the points with BOSTON. I won with the Pistons in each of the last two games. However, I now believe that the "value" now lies with the visiting Celtics. While the Celtics home/road disparity was well documented through the first two rounds, they've now managed to get a road win under their belts and the road team has covered three of the last four games in this series. Last game came down to the wire and tonight's game could easily do so again, making taking the points a valuable proposition. The Pistons got a gritty effort from their leader Chauncey Billups last time out and he'll surely be back in the starting lineup. However, he's still not 100% healthy and now they've got the additional problem of a banged-up (currently questionable) Richard Hamilton, their leading scorer through the regular season. Despite a 3-2 ATS mark through the first five games of this series, let's keep in mind that the Pistons are still just 4-13 ATS their last 17 games in the Conference Finals, losing 11 of those games outright. Let's also keep in mind that the Celtics won more road games (31) than any team in the league this regular season. Of course, coach Doc Rivers is saying all the right things: "We don't want to go to a Game 7. We want to win this now if we can. They're not going to let us win it. We're going to have to come in and take it." He went on to say: "They've been in situations before. They're a mentally tough team, and we're going to have to play the game of our lives to go up there and win. But I think we're capable of doing that." While saying and doing are two different things, I agree with Rivers that the Celts are capable of ending the series tonight. Knowing the Lakers are already waiting/resting and looking to avoid a third straight Game 7, look for the Celts to give a massive effort, improving to 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3 to +6 range. *Main Event
Lockline Sports
St Louis
Oak
Sea/Det over
Ariz
Cinn
Alex Smart
Colorado Rockies +142
The Colorado Rockies are struggling , there is not doubt about it, but this afternoon, with Aaron Cooke(7-3, 2.82 ERA) their most stable starter taking to the hill, they have a good chance of pulling off a victory at a value price vs the Cubbies. Chicagos starter Ted Lilly despite of a winning record this season owns a bloated 5.23 ERA on the year, and has almost always looked susceptible to a beat down. With the pitching matchup favoring the Rockies, I recommending we back them on the moneyline . Final notes & Key Trends: Cook has had success against the Cubs in the past as s evident by a 3-1 record along with a 2.32 ERA, and had a top notch effort against the Cubs this season, giving up two runs on four hits in a win. Play on Colorado
Matt Fargo
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Washington Nationals
The public is all over Arizona and for what reason? The Diamondbacks are struggling as they have lost eight of their last 10 games. Going back even further, since a 19-7 start, they are 11-17 since the end of April so this is clearly a team that should not be laying a huge number like this. The offense is sputtering, scoring three runs or fewer in eight of 10 games, averaging just 3.6 rpg over that stretch and that is with one game of scoring 11 runs and another scoring nine.
Washington is certainly not a team that is playing great but it is almost the exact opposite of the Diamondbacks. After a 5-15 start, the Nationals are a respectable 18-17 since then and have lost back-to-back games just six times. They are 6-5 over their last 11 road games which is rather good considering it came into that run on a 2-12 run away from home. Washington comes in posting a solid 3.16 ERA from its starters over the last 10 games and has allowed four runs or fewer in seven of its last 11 games.
One of the starters contributing to that success is Tim Redding. He is coming off a poor showing against the Brewers but he has been one of the more consistent starters on the staff. Prior to the last game, four of his previous five outings were quality performances including his last road game against the Mets. He is 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three road starts and while he is 0-5 with a 6.30 ERA in six starts against Arizona, it means nothing considering he has not faced the Diamondbacks since 2005.
Micah Owings seems to be back in full form as he has tossed four straight quality starts for the second time this season. The last time however, he was shelled for 12 runs in 10.2 innings in his next two starts and I still do not believe that he should be placed in the top tier of the league therefore he is definite play against. Arizona is averaging just 3.6 rpg in his five home starts and the run production is much worse now meaning it will likely take a gem to get it done here. Play Washington Nationals 1.5 Units
PSYCHIC
NBA
5 units Boston +5.5
WISEGUY
MLB
PASS
DA STICK
NHL
5 units Pitt -120
MLB
10 units Ny Yankees -115
JB's COMPUTER PICKS
Texas Rangers +105
St. Louis Cardinals -170 * * *
Los Angeles Angels -125
Best Bet * * *
Jimmy The Moose
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
The under is a profitable 20-9-1 fot the Jays on the road this season. The under is 9-3-1 in the Jays last 13 games as an underdog. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. AL West opponents. The under is 9-1-1 in McGowan's 11 starts this season. The under is 10-2 in his last 12 road starts. The under is 7-1 in the Angels last 8 games as a home favorite. In their last 7 vs. a team with a losing road record the under is 7-0. The under is 22-6 in their last 28 games overall. The under is 16-5-2 in the Jays last 23 trips to LA. Play the under.
Play on: Under
Yankee Capper Premium MLB
5 Units - Cincinnati Reds -160
5 Units - Cleveland Indians -145
4 Units - Boston Red Sox -150
4 Units - New York Mets -140
4 Units - Marlins/Phillies Over 10
3 Units - Colorado Rockies +140
3 Units - Houston Astros +110
2 Units - Florida Marlins +135
VEGAS EXPERTS
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels
Blue Jays starter Dustin McGowan is a lousy 0-3 on the road this season while Angels starter Jered Weaver is pitching lights out recently, as he has a 3-0 TSR with a 0.89 ERA his last three starts. McGowan has never beaten the Angels in three starts, Weaver has not lost to the Jays in two starts. McGowan has a terrible 1-7 TSR in night games and has yet to see his team win in the underdog role this season when he starts. Angels are the common sense play here.
Play on: LA Angels
Jack Clayton
Yankees
Global Handicapping
Milwaukee
Templer's Sports Picks
Arizona
Rocco Spacamuro
100* Pistons -5.5
MadduxSports
Boston/Detroit Under 175
Cappers Access
Celtics
Rockies
Joe Wiz
Reds
Astros
floridabookybusters
Boston/Detroit Under 175
Tommy Rider
4 Units Indians
Totals4u
Det/Sea Over
PRIORITY SPORTS INFO
Cincinnati
ARTHUR RALPH
Boston Red Sox
BILLY IRISH
CLE -155
TRACE ADAMS
Oakland Athletics
Silver Key Play
Houston at MILWAUKEE Under 9.5
Insider Sports Report
Boston/Baltimore OVER 8
Philly Connection
Toronto BlueJays
Donald Tran
Houston Astros
Jennifer Barry
Chicago White Sox
Chad Jordan
Dodgers
ARMVIN SPORTS
SAN DIEGO PADRES
The Super Scout
Baltimore Orioles
PlusLineSports
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
DCI
DETROIT 91, Boston 87
THE POWER INDEX
Detroit* over Boston
Frank Patron
NY Yanks
Paul Leiner
10* Cubs
2-Minute Warning
Detroit Pistons
Big Time
OAKLAND/TEXAS OVER 9.5
PLATINUM PLAYS
TWINS
Razor Sharp
HOUSTON
Huddle Up Sports
NY Yankees
#1 Sports
MINNESOTA TWINS
The Scout
NY Mets
The Vegas Steam Line
DETROIT w/ Robertson -115
Mike Wynn
Texas
EZWINNERS
MLB
5 STAR: (910) TEXAS (+$100) over Oakland
(Listing Millwood only)
(Risking $500 to win $500)
3 STAR PARLAY: (902) CHICAGO (-$147) and (923) NY YANKEES (-$115)
(Listing Lilly and Mussina only)
(Risking $300 to win $642)
2 STAR: (903) FLORIDA (+$141) over Philadelphia
(Listing Hendrickson and Myers)
(Risking $200 to win $282)
2 STAR: (905) LA DODGERS (+$126) over NY Mets
(Listing Kersham only)
(Risking $200 to win $252)
2 STAR: (907) ATLANTA (+$138) over Cincinnati
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $276)
2 STAR: (930) SEATTLE (+$102) over Detroit
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $204)
1 STAR: (910) MILWAUKEE (-$129) over Houston
(Action)
(Risking $129 to win $100)
NBA
1 STAR: (724) DETROIT (-5.5) over Boston
(Risking $110 to win $100)
DUSTIN HAWKINS
KC ROYALS
You have to be impressed with the good young talent the Royals have put together. Cleveland still can't seem to get it together on either side of the ball. The Royals might lack consistency, but they've looked good enough at home this season to warrant a play tonight.
JACK JONES
ATLANTA BRAVES
The Braves took the first series in Atlanta pretty easily in the beginning of the month of May, and that's good news for Braves backers heading into today because going against home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 that are revenging a same season 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents, with a winning percentage of between 46-49% on the season are (29-11 since 1997.) (72.5%, +22.1 units.) Braves batters are patient and make contact, which Reds pitchers seem to struggle with as Cincinnati is 1-9 (-8.4 Units) against teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game this season. Add in how the Reds are 1-13 (-15.0 Units) with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games over the last 2 seasons and you'll see why we think the Braves are giving us good value here at +140.
DAVE MALINSKY 4*
GAME: Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Under
After cashing 10*s worth of Unders with these Blue Jays are Oakland earlier in the week we got tagged with a loss yesterday, when one of the weakest offensive lineups in the major Leagues exploded for 12 runs on 17 hits. But all that does is bring us the value to get right back into play here, particularly with that explosion helping to bring their outstanding bullpen in rested and ready for this one. So with two starters that can control the opposing offenses, and all bullpen arms rested and ready, we are in play.
We backed Dustin McGowan as part of a 4* Under against John Lackey and these Angels two starts back in Toronto, and McGowan can bring a little chip on his shoulder here, having allowed only two earned runs and five hits over 6.1 innings in that one, but being tagged with a loss. He rebounded with seven shutout innings vs. Kansas City in his last outing, and while white-washing the Royals is not necessarily anything all that special, the fact that he did not walk a batter matters for a guy that had been struggling a bit with his control. that will have his confidence right where it needs to be to again dominate this punchless lineup - injuries have robbed the infield of their punch, and we will have to see if a couple of nights off will shake Vladimir Guerrero from perhaps the worst slump of his career.
Yesterday was not the start of any kind of turnaround for the Blue Jay offense - there just is not much there. Jered Weaver is on a blazing 0.80 over his last three starts, a span in which has has more than twice as many strikeouts (19) as hits allowed (9), and he has worked to a 14-6/3.10 for his young career from this mound. Toronto will have a difficult time altering that form - his motion can be difficult to pick up if you lack experience against him, and with Brad Wilkerson the only Blue Jay to have at least 10 at-bats (and Wilkerson is a weak .231 over 13 trips to the batters box), we can call for some awkward swings and weak contact. And with Thursday off it means that the entire Angel bullpen is available to lock down the latter innings.
Tom Freese
Detroit at Seattle
Detroit is 40-16 their last 56 games vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40% and they are 10-4 their last 14 games vs. AL West teams. The Tigers are 7-3 their last 10 games in Seattle. The Mariners are 7-19 their last 26 games vs. losing teams and they are 2-7 off a win. Starting pitcher Carlos Silva has allowed 28 runs in his last 26.1 innings of work. OUCH! PLAY ON DETROIT vs. Silva