JIMMY THE MOOSE
Cincinnati Reds at Florida Marlins
Prediction: over
Reason: The Reds have played the under quite often of late but when these team's get together they score runs. The over is 22-7-1 in the Reds last 30 games as a road dog of +110 to +150. The over is 21-7-2 in their last 30 games vs. a left-handed starter. The over is 21-7-3 in the Marlins last 31 games. The over is 41-16-5 in Florida's last 62 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite. The over is 7-3 when Miller has been on the mound this season. The over is 4-1-1 in his last 6 home starts. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 trips to Florida and the team's have played the over in 7 of the last 10 meetings overall. Play the over
SPORTS KINGZ
ST. LOUIS +105
BOSTON R/L +130
METS -145
ARIZONA -170
LT Profits
Baltimore Orioles +160
Now we have a lot of respect for what Shaun Marcum of the Toronto Blue Jays has done this season, but the Baltimore Orioles seem to ooze value at this price here.
Now we realize that Brian Burres has been plagued by the home run ball in his last two starts, but he did allow three earned runs or less in six of his previous seven outings, and he also tossed seven scoreless innings the last time he pitched in Toronto, so he is certainly capable of getting himself straightened out here. Besides, at the earliest hint of trouble, Baltimore always has a quality bullpen to fall back on, as they rank third in the American League with a 3.18 ERA.
Now we like Marcum a lot, but even we must wonder if he has pitched over his head to this point, with a fantastic 0.94 WHIP in 78.2 innings. After all, Marcum does not blow people away and he often pitches to contact, and while he has been vintage Maddux-like in keeping the ball off of the fat part of the bat, is he really this good or is a correction in order? Besides, the Jays may be a bit fragile after that devastating loss to the Yankees yesterday, when they blew an early 7-2 lead and a two-run lead with two outs and nobody on with their great closer B.J. Ryan on the hill in the ninth inning.
That was they type of loss that could have some residual effect for a game or two, and given that the Orioles have been surprisingly competitive thanks to some great pitching, they get the call at this rather inflated price.
Pick: Orioles +160
Chicago Cubs +105
The Chicago Cubs have the best record in baseball after winning for the 10th time in 11 games in the series opener here last night, and they get the call again as small underdogs vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.
The Cubs are now 39-22, yet they find themselves as dogs to a 28-32 Dodger team here. That probably has to do with Sean Gallagher taking this start for Chicago, but he has actually allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts, including possibly the best start of his brief career vs. these Dodgers in Chicago, where he allowed one run on just four hits in seven innings. Now that also happened to be the longest start of his career, but he has the support of a Cubs bullpen that ranks third in the National League with a 3.19 pen ERA.
Besides, Hiroki Kuroda seems like an unreliable favorite in this spot. Kuroda is just 2-5 overall, and he was lit up for six earned runs while surrendering nine baserunners in just 2.2 innings vs. the New York Mets last start. Also, the Dodgers have lost five of their last six games overall with three of those losses coming here at home.
We don’t expect Los Angeles to suddenly get well vs. this blazing-hot Cubs team.
Pick: Cubs +105
Stephen Nover
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Under
First off, Brandon Webb is starting for Arizona. He's a top Cy Young candidate with a 10-2 mark and 2.69 ERA. He's off a complete game 4-0 victory against Washington on Saturday. His sinkerball has been working. His groundball-to-flyball out ratio was 72-to-17 during May.
Webb is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA career-wise versus Pittsburgh in four starts. Right-handed pitchers Webb and Snell can be tough on hitters at PNC Park because of the makeup of the stadium.
The key here is Snell. The guy last won on April 12. He has been brutal. However, he's been fine in his last two home starts, yielding three earned runs in 13 innings against Milwaukee and Atlanta. Having regular shortstop Jack Wilson back is huge defensively for Pittsburgh.
Snell has a good history, too, against the Diamondbacks. He's 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA lifetime versus Arizona in four starts.
Arizona's offense has been going downhill. The Diamondbacks have scored only eight runs in their last four road games. They are averaging just three runs per contest during their last 10 games overall.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -136
The Brewers are on fire having won 6 straight and we'll take them tonight with their ace on the hill. The Brewers are 9-1 in Sheets' last 10 road starts, 6-1 in Sheets' last 7 starts as a road favorite, and 22-8 in Sheets' last 30 starts overall. The Rcokies have been struggling all season and so has Jimenez. The Rockies are just 2-8 in their last 10 overall. They are only 1-12 in Jimenez's last 13 starts, 0-8 in Jimenez's last 8 starts as an underdog, and 0-7 in Jimenez's last 7 starts vs. the National League Central. Take the Brewers.
Gina
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have won six straight at home, seven of their last eight and have beaten the Kansas City Royals in 22 of its last 24 games at home.
New York will send Darrell Rasner (3-2, 2.67 ERA) to the hill. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts at home this season. He will be facing Kansas City for the first time. The Kansas City Royals counter with Kyle Davies (1-0, 1.80). The right-hander in his only start against New York, allowed five runs on six hits over three innings in a 16-8 win at at Yankee Stadium on August 4, but did not receive a decision.
Go with The Yankees tonight in the Big Apple against the struggling Royals. New York's Darrell Rasner was awful in his last start, his second straight defeat, but should have a good night on the mound facing the dismal Royals. Kansas City has dropped 15 of their last 17 games and 11 straight on the road.
New York Yankees -230
JB's Computer Plays
Boston Red Sox -155
San Francisco Giants -115
Texas Rangers +120
Chicago Cubs +105
Winners Edge
Houston Astros RL +170 , 1 unit
NY Yankees RL -120 , 2 units
Oakland A's Even , 2 units
GamblersWorld
TIP OF THE DAY
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
The New York Yankees will be trying to extend a winning streak on Friday when they take on the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium. The Royals will give the ball to starter Kyle Davies in this one. Righthander Davies is 1-0 this season with a 1.80 ERA. Meanwhile, it'll be Darrell Rasner who starts for the Yankees. Righthander Rasner is 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA so far this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Yankees listed as 200-moneyline favorites versus the Royals, while the game's total is sitting at 9½. The Royals lost 6-2 to the White Sox as a +155 underdog in Thursday's series finale. The game's eight runs went as a PUSH against the posted over/under (8). Mark Teahen homered and finished 2-for-4 at the plate for the Royals. Gil Meche gave up five runs off seven hits over 5 2-3 innings in the loss. The Yankees scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to defeat the Blue Jays 9-8 as -170 favorites in the rubber match on Thursday. The game's 17 runs sailed OVER the day's posted over/under (8.5). Wilson Betemit cracked a two-run homer and Jason Giambi also went deep for the Yankees. Kyle Farnsworth tossed the ninth and was given credit for the win. Current streak: Kansas City has lost 3 straight games. New York has won 2 straight games. Team records: Kansas City: 23-37 SU New York: 30-30 SU Kansas City most recently: When playing on Friday are 4-6 Before playing NY Yankees are 4-6 After playing Chi White Sox are 3-7 After a loss are 1-9 New York most recently: When playing on Friday are 7-3 Before playing Kansas City are 7-3 After playing Toronto are 6-4 After a win are 7-3 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing NY Yankees The total has gone OVER in 9 of Kansas City's last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees Kansas City is 5-20 SU in their last 25 games when playing NY Yankees Kansas City is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City NY Yankees are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Kansas City The total has gone OVER in 9 of NY Yankees's last 11 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Ted Sevransky
New Orleans Voodoo @ New York Dragons
PICK: New York Dragons
New Orleans is getting far too much credit from the linesmakers for a misleading home victory over the only team in the entire league that has no hope of making the playoffs. Yes, the VooDoo beat Columbus by three touchdowns at home last week, where they are 6-1 this season. But the VooDoo and the Destroyers both scored nine touchdowns on eleven meaningful drives. The difference in the game were a pair of net recoveries on kickoffs for New Orleans (the ultimate ‘lucky’ play) and an interception return for touchdown with no time left on the clock in the first half. New Orleans is still only 1-3 SU in their last four games, and they are just 2-4 SU on the highway, yet they are priced in a pointspread range where they’ll likely need a straight up win to earn a pointspread cover here.
The New York Dragons are trending in the opposite direction right now. Since their 1-4 start, the Dragons are 6-2 SU. Their tremendous defense has held opponents under 50 points in seven of their last nine ballgames. Meanwhile, Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Garcia guided the team to ten touchdowns and a field goal on their eleven meaningful possessions last week. In fact, this offense has averaged 62 points per game in their last four home games, scoring at least 56 each time. Let’s take advantage of yet another bad pointspread in a season full of bad pointspreads from the linesmakers with a play on the Dragons as short home favorites here. Take New York. Current Line: NY -1.5, reduce wager size to ½ unit at -3 or higher.
Terron Chapman
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
Scott Kazmir will be the latest pithcer tonight to enter the bermuda triangle of the major league's otherwise known as Arlington Park. Home to the Texas Rangers it boasts the highest OPS of any stadium in the majors at .837. The Rays ace has been splendid to say the least so far this season, and will try to continue his dominance when his Rays open a three game set against the Texas Rangers tonight.
Arlington Park can make the best pitcher's in the majors look like September call-ups. It also doesn't help that the Rangers are second in the majors in hitting with a team batting average of .285 and an OPS of .820. The Rangers are capable of, if anything slowing the young lefty down tonight. This will be the second time the Rangers have seen Kazmir this year. They were victims of a 3 hit gem in which he allowed 0 earned runs in 7 IP. Kazmir has never lost to the Rangers in his career, so why go against him this evening?
For starters, the Rays contiue to struggle on the road. They are just 11-15 away from Tampa and are coming off what was supposed to be a statemtent series for them but was anything but against the defending champion Boston Red Sox. They lost all three in Boston, scoring just 2 runs in the last two defeats, and getting themselves involved in a scuffle last night when James Shields seemed to have intentionally thrown at Coco Crisp. What was supposed to be retaliation for Crisp taking a hard slide into Iwamura on Wednesday, turned into a bench clearing brawl with suspensions looming. There is no telling how this will affect the mental state of the young Rays who now must turn around and gather themselves for a good Rangers team.
While Kazmir will get alot of attention from bettors, Vicente Padilla has been no slouch this season in his own right. Padilla who is coming off of the bereavement list is 5-0 in his last 7 starts with an ERA of just 2.82. The Rangers are 7-1 in Padilla's last 8 home starts and 17-5 in his last 22 overall. The Rays are 8-20 in their last 28 meetings in Texas. It will be interesting to see how the Rays react after last night's brawl. Even with Kazmir on the mound for the Rays there is still value to be had backing the Rangers in this spot.
Play on the Texas Rangers for 1 unit.
Tony Karpinski
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Under
Today's free pick we turn our attention to a matchup in Canada. After a far-from-perfect end to their road trip, the Toronto Blue Jays should be glad to be headed home. Toronto will try to avoid a third straight loss Friday when it begins a nine-game homestand by facing the Orioles. The Blue Jays (32-30) have won a season-high five straight home games - by a combined 27-7 score - and went 10-4 at Rogers Centre in May. Burres gets the nod for Baltimore and in two career starts at Rogers Centre, Burres has allowed two runs in 12 innings while going 1-1. The last time he faced the Blue Jays came in Baltimore and he was ripped for seven runs and eight hits in 3 1-3 innings of an 11-4 loss on Sept. 25. With both teams playing Thursday in the sun and having to travel across the boarder, this looks like an under play. Play the UNDER
Larry Ness
Insider SF Giants
GOW LA Angels
Ben Burns
GOM Tigers
Nick Parsons
Boston vs Seattle
Play OVER
It looks like the rain will move out of Boston by this evening and that means it should be no problems at Fenway Park tonight. In terms of this total, it seems to have OVER written all over it! Bartolo Colon gets the start for the Red Sox and his overall numbers are a bit deceiving so far this season. Hes 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA but he certainly has not been overpowering and the Mariners have the added benefit of having just seen him at Safeco Field less than two weeks ago. That was Colons best start so far this season as he allowed 6 earned runs on 13 hits and 4 walks in 11 innings of work in his other two starts. This is why he is a little overrated at this point as you can see and the Mariners will likely get to him early in this one after having just seen him. Seattles issue tonight is going to be its own pitching. Felix Hernandez has a 2.83 ERA on the road this season but hes been hit at a .282 clip in his outings away from home so, as you can see, hes had to skate his way out of jams on more than one occasion when on the road. Hes also allowing Boston to get a quick second look on a short turnaround as the Red Sox just saw him at Safeco Field less than two weeks ago. Having scored 42 runs in their last 7 games since coming back from their road trip to Seattle, the Boston bats will stay hot tonight. With a very low number on this game its time to take advantage with a play here and then watch this one soar OVER the total!