Drew Gordon
Cincinnati at FLORIDA -130
Good spot for the Fish, as they're looking to rebound coming off a tough road trip that saw them lose 4 of their last 5, and now return home where they play much better ball (18-12 overall, 5-1 L6 at home). Several strong reasons to believe this will be the spot they turn it around:
First, although he's won two in a row (at home), I'm still not convinced Johnny Cueto can get it done on the road, especially against this hard-hitting Marlins club. Yes, he was great against the Braves in his last one, but again that was in the friendly confines of home... On the road its a completely different story, as Cueto looks a lot more like the rookie he is, going 0-4 with a 7.99 ERA on the season away!
Second, while I admit Adrew Miller has had his ups and downs this season, his last start at home was outstanding, tossing 7 scoreless innings against the D-Backs, striking out 9 along the way! His home and away ERA's are similar, but for anyone who's seen him progress this season, the young southpaw is clearly more comfortable in South Florida, and he'll prove me right in this one.
Finally, let's not forget how piss-poor the Reds have been on the highway, going 10-22 on the season, including looking terrible in losing 3 of 4 at Philadelphia in their last series. The Marlins, meanwhile, are clearly glad to be back in South Florida, where they've won 5 of their last 6. Also, don't think for a second the Fish have forgotten about their 3 game sweep at the hands of the Reds back in mid-May. Look for the Marlins get back on track tonight at home!
Take Florida behind Miller over Cincinnati and Cueto in this MLB match up.
3* FLORIDA
Michael Cannon
Milwaukee -135 at COLORADO
Take the Brewers as the road chalk tonight over the Rockies.
Milwaukee starts its ace, Ben Sheets. The right-hander is 6-1 with a 2.71 ERA in 11 games on the year. Hes 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA over his last three starts.
The Brewers havent been all that great on the road this year, but I like the momentum they carry into tonight?s game, and with Sheets on the mound that makes this a solid play.
The Rockies have been terrible all season long and will go with Ubaldo Jimenez, who is just 1-6 with a 5.37 ERA in 12 games.
Take the Brewers as they grab the road win.
4* MILWAUKEE
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
5000* BASEBALL LATE STEAMER WINNER
LA Angels w/Lackey -110
Wunderdog
Cincinnati at Florida
Pick: Florida -127
Potential has a way of holding lines down and Johny Cueto has been instrumental in doing just that. He opened the season with a one-run 10-strikeout performance and has been inside the oddsmakers heads since. What has followed is much less than ordinary. Cueto has worked 61.2 innings since that first start allowing 68 hits, and 13 HR's as well as posting an ERA of nearly six runs a game. The Reds have only won 10 of 32 road games and more importantly are 0-5 with Cueto towing the rubber on the road. Andrew Miller had a nine ERA through April, but has since settled down nicely pitching to a 2.65 ERA with nine less hits allowed to innings pitched. This line is subject to the Cueto factor and is much too low. The value here is on the Marlins.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on LA Angels -106
The Angels are one of the best road teams in baseball and I like them tonight against the struggling Blanton. The Athletics are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings when Blanton faces Lackey. The Angels are 7-1 in Lackey's last 8 starts vs. the Athletics. The Athletics are 4-11 in Blanton's last 15 starts and 2-7 in his last 9 home starts. The Angels have won 5 straight and they are in very good hands with Lackey hurling tonight. The Angels are 22-9 in Lackey's last 31 starts as a favorite and 24-9 in Lackey's last 33 starts vs. the American League West. Take the Angels.
Ben Burns
Philadelphia vs. Atlanta
Pick: ATLANTA BRAVES
The Braves won again yesterday and are now an impressive 25-8 at home on the season. Tonight, they'll face a Phillies squad which is a mediocre 15-13 on the road. With the Phillies on top of the division, this is a critical series for the Braves, who are currently 3 1/2 games back. With ace Tim Hudson on the mound, tonight represents an excellent shot at continuing their strong play here. Hudson is 5-1 in six home starts with a 2.81 ERA and 1.128 WHIP. In his his most recent start here, he held the Mets to two runs through eight complete innings, en route to a 4-2 win over Johan Santana. It should be noted that Hudson did tweak his hamstring recently, which is one of the primary reasons this wasn't released as one of my 'guaranteed' selections. All the same, he believes that he's fine and I expect that to be the case. Facing veteran Jamie Moyer, I expect the Braves, who are batting .303 in this park, to provide Hudson with some decent run support. While Moyer continues to pile up innings and victories, he hasn't pitched particularly well of late, as he's given up nine runs over his last two starts. Note that Moyer, who has a relatively poor 1.458 WHIP on the season, is 3-8 with a 5.42 ERA in 11 starts and one relief appearance over his career vs. the Braves. His most recent start here resulted in a 5-1 loss. Consider a play on ATLANTA.
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
5000 LARGE BASEBALL WINNER
Milwaukee w/Sheets -134
JEFFERSONSPORTS
SAN FRANCISCO-108
MILWAUKEE-134
METS-150
MINNESOTA+170
Larry Ness
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have had their problems away from home but they've been dominant at Fenway in '08. Thursday's 7-1 win over Tampa Bay was the team's fifth consecutive win overall but Boston's 13th straight home win. Boston owns a MLB-best 24-5 (plus-$1,847) at home and is a devastating 20-4 at home vs right-handed starters. The Mariners, who are struggling EVERYWHERE this year, head into this series with a ML-worst 21-39 mark and after owning MLB's second-best moneyline mark in 2007, are the not-so-proud owners of its worst moneyline mark (minus-$2,037) this year. The Mariners will face Bartolo Colon, who has surprised everyone by "coming back from the dead" this year. After getting signed to a minor league deal by Boston at the beginning of this year, Colon finds himself back in the majors. He won the AL Cy Young award with a 21-8 (3.48 ERA) mark in 2005 but in the injury-filled seasons of '06 and '07, went only 7-13 with a 5.90 ERA for the Angels. He somehow worked himself back into form in the spring and since making his first start of this year on May 21, is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA (13 Ks and 5 walks). He'll face a Mariners team which is just 17-27 vs right-handers overall and a pathetic 7-20 on the road vs any kind of starter. Felix Hernandez opened the year without allowing an ER in his first two starts (15 innings) but the Mariners lost both of those games. He then went 2-0 over a three-game stretch (team was 3-0) but enters this game just 1-5 with a 3.86 ERA over his last seven outings (team is 2-5). It seems like 'suicide' to go against the Red Sox at Fenway these days and there's NO sense in going against them when the other option is to back this current Seattle team. Take Boston.
Dave Malinsky 4*
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Chicago Cubs
It should not be a surprise that we are showing up here, and now that the markets have driven the Dodgers as high as we are likely to see, it is time to step in.
We cashed an easy ticket with the Mets against Hiroki Kuroda on Sunday, noting that his stuff is decent, not great, and that once the usual advantages of the first pass through the league took place hitters would begin getting much better reads. New York was the first team to get a second look against him, and he could not make it out of the 3rd inning, allowing six runs on seven hits, including home runs to Carlos Beltran and Ryan Church, and not getting a single strikeout of the 17 batters that he faced (nine of them reached via a hit or a walk). Now the Cubs become the second team to get a second look, and while he did carry a shutout into the 7th in the first go-round at Wrigley, it was not as good as that may sound. First-pitch temperature was 42 degrees, making it ideal for a pitcher, and yet six different Cubs got a hit against him, and Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Theriot and Ronny Cedeno all had a hit and drew a walk. Also one of the two position players that did not get a hit was Mike Fontenot, who will not start tonight.
The bottom line? Kuroda is an over-rated item, particularly when it makes a Los Angeles team that is 9-18 over the past 27 games (call it the “Post-Furcal” cycle) the favorites against a side with the best record in the Major League’s. Add in the woeful tally of the N.L. West against outside competition, which has now run to a stunning 38 games under .500, and the class difference is even more clear. And Sean Gallagher gives us more than enough to take advantage.
Gallagher lost nearly 40 pounds in the off-season, and it has shown not only in increased velocity, but also in terms of stamina as well. He threw 111 pitches in beating the Dodgers at Wrigley two starts back, and then 112 against Colorado in his last outing, a game in which he struck out eight Rockies while not walking a single batter. His task is made easier by the confidence of the entire Cub team behind him, including an under-rated defense that is #2 in the National League on our best set of ratings, and the latter stages are in excellent hands with Carlos Marmol (2.35 with 18 holds) and Kerry Wood (2.70 with 17 saves). Note that while Marmol has worked back-to-back nights, he has only thrown 16 pitches in that span and does not carry a fatigue rating.
just wanted send a shot-out to the postmaster mvbski thank u 4 yesterdays winners !!!!! good luck$$$$$$$$$......RAZORAZE BVDMOB SFC......................
Josh Dean
Min/Cws UNDER 8.5
TB/Tex UNDER 9.5
NYY/KC UNDER 9.5
Brandon Lang
15 Dime - Brewers
5 Dime - Chisox Run Line
FREE - Tampa Bay D'Rays
just wanted send a shot-out to the postmaster mvbski thank u 4 yesterdays winners !!!!! good luck$$$$$$$$$......RAZORAZE BVDMOB SFC......................
Your welcome 😉
Bryan Leonard
Cincinnati Reds @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins
The Marlins return home from a ten game road trip as they take on the poor traveling (10-22) Cincinnati Reds. Andrew Miller will get the start and he has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. He'll be taking on a Reds offense that was only able to produce eight total runs in the four game series at hitter friendly Philadelphia. Being shutdown by Cole Hamels is one thing, but showing little against the likes of Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton is another thing entirely.
Even though Florida won just three of their ten road games it wasn't because of their offense. The Marlins averaged 5.1 runs on the road as the offense remains in high gear. Johnny Cueto takes the hill for Cincinnati and the youngster has really struggled away from home this year. He has a 7.99 road ERA and the Reds have yet to taste victory with Cueto on a foreign mound. While the young flamethrower has an excellent 62 to 20 strikeout to walk ratio, most of that success came very early in the season. In his last eight starts his ratio has been just 33 to 17. Four times this season Cueto has allowed multiple homer games and this Florida offense has the ability to hit the ball a long way.
In a battle of two promising young players we would rather trust the better offensive team playing at home.
PLAY FLORIDA